Article: Forecasting Mauer's Remaining Years

[Deduno Abides]

The old gray Mauer just ain't what he used to be.

 

The biggest question over the next two years is what kind of retirement tour he's going to get in 2018.

 

Second biggest is how many "Joe's Back!" articles will be written when he has a one or two week hot streak.

[djvang]

I'd just like to see him try something different at the plate for once. Stop letting the first pitch go by. He used to be a great two-strike hitter. He's not anymore. Whatever that pitch is that he always grounds to 2B, STOP SWINGING AT IT! He still seems to think he's MVP Joe and his approach to hitting doesn't need to change. His numbers show that's not true. Does management even suggest it to him?

[Doomtints]

 

Second biggest is how many "Joe's Back!" articles will be written when he has a one or two week hot streak.

 

That's a simple projection. Count how many times that was written whenever Buxton played well for 1-2 weeks. 

[Doomtints]

 

 

I'd just like to see him try something different at the plate for once. Stop letting the first pitch go by. He used to be a great two-strike hitter. He's not anymore. Whatever that pitch is that he always grounds to 2B, STOP SWINGING AT IT! He still seems to think he's MVP Joe and his approach to hitting doesn't need to change. His numbers show that's not true. Does management even suggest it to him?

 

Mauer's plate discipline is enviable and if the Twins are suggesting he change that at all, they are doing him a disservice. 

 

Mauer has had the same hitting profile for as long as we have spray chart data. What probably confounded defenses in the past is now obvious for everyone to see. His grounders almost all go between first and second, and his flyballs almost always go to LF. Before this data exposed him, it was felt that Mauer could hit the ball anywhere. Now defenses know they can simply shift when Joe is at the plate and keep his OBP right where it is now.

 

If Mauer wants to break out of his funk, he needs to change his timing a bit, try to mash everything for a home run (which would probably hurt his legs over time), or start trying to line drives whenever he can. 

Edited January 20, 2017 by Doomtints

[AlwaysinModeration]

My predictions for Joe's next two years:

-almost never swings at first pitch

-hits fewer than 14 home runs per year

-sideburns as sharp as ever

-every TD forum related to Mauer diverts at least once into a debate over his HOF chances

 

Oh, and also:

-posts best numbers since 2013 in both years, not vintage Joe, but pretty close, say 290/390/400

-gets several key hits during post-season games; draws many Todd Helton-like "last hurrah"-type articles.

 

I've said this before, but Morneau took three years post concussion to get it back - and then he won a batting title. Joe's now three full seasons post-concussion. I'm not expecting him to post a 300+ season in either of the next two years. But it wouldn't surprise me.

[spinowner]

 

My predictions for Joe's next two years:

-gets several key hits during post-season games; draws many Todd Helton-like "last hurrah"-type articles.
 

This must mean you think he'll waive his no-trade clause.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

This must mean you think he'll waive his no-trade clause.

 

You said what I was thinking.