Article: Forecasting Mauer's Remaining Years

[Taildragger8791]

 

Well, I think Joe still makes the HOF.  He'll end his career with more than 2000 hits, 3 batting titles and an MVP.  Tim Raines also had a very small peak and it looks like he'll get into the HOF.  Mauer won't be a first ballot guy but he'll get in.

 

As for the next few years, I think he'll have flashes of old Mauer and I really hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him but I suspect the next two seasons will look a lot like the last two seasons.

  

If he gets in it'll be on the batting titles, MVP, elite years of AVG & OBP, and some future generation of sportswriters that give weight to advanced stats during his catching days. Nothing he's doing at 1B is really helping his candidacy since he doesn't have the counting numbers that impress. He never cracked 100 RBI, only cracked 90 RBI once, and even 70 RBI only five times. Only one season above 13 HRs and six seasons in the double digits. Walks and doubles don't help much unless they come from an elite runner and base stealer.

 

The counting stat he does have is hits, as you mentioned. It's not a sure thing, but he should reach 2,000 hits if he's healthy and plays at least 3/4 time the next two years or has a big bounce back year. I'm just not sure that'll be enough without elite run production, game-changing power, base-running numbers, or something else to go along with it. Especially when the last 5 years of his career will have been padding that hit total with replacement-level play at 1B.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think hard hit is a bit different than power, correct?  I could be wrong but I thought hard hit had more to do with squaring the ball up (probably measured in mph off the bat) rather than .iso or some other metric.  The problem with Mauer has been that he's not hitting the line drives anymore, he's rolling over to second base every other at-bat. 

 

As for his percentages, his career hard hit % is around 33 and his 2013 was one of his higher years and his 2014 was one of his lower.  He had a 31% last year.  So I'm not so sure how much value this is worth, at the end of the day.  He's not the hitter he was, regardless of cause.  

Hard hit is definitely "different" than power but I believe its strongest correlation is to ISO, which is the measure of pure power.

 

Hard hit balls fall in for hits at a very high rate and often go for extra bases.

 

As pointed out, a 6% drop in hard hit is worth something around .050 slugging. It explains a huge portion of Mauer's drop-off.

 

2013 was one of Mauer's higher hard hit years but barely. He spent a bunch of years over 36% before the concussion, peaking over 41%.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are some insights into Joe's hard hit percentages:

 

2006 (his breakout season) through 2013: 35% (also includes his terrible 2011 season full of bilateralness, when his hard hit fell to just 20.8%)

 

2014 through 2016: 29.9%

 

2014 through 2015 (his really bad post-concussion seasons): 28.8%

 

That's a steep, sudden dropoff in the contact that matters the most.

 

Isolate that terrible 2011 and it's more pronounced:

 

2006 through 2010: 35.5%

 

2012 through 2013: 37.2%

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

...

 

The new brass need to go to him and offer a few different options.  1)Do a A-Rod like buyout and wave good bye, 2) tell him if he can't produce(.300/.380/.550), there is the pine or 3)tell him to waive is no trade cause and move him(LOL, no one will take him what am I thinking)

 

Well looks like we are stuck with him for two more years cuz none of that will happen.  Sigh......

 

You realize that only 4 first basemen in MLB had an OPS of .930 or greater, right?

Would you tell Paul Goldschmidt that one more year like 2016 and he is benched? 

A little harsh.

 

Mauer was 2nd on the team with a .363 OBP. The OPS wasn't vintage Mauer, but it's not nothing.

[Vanimal46]

 

If he gets in it'll be on the batting titles, MVP, elite years of AVG & OBP, and some future generation of sportswriters that give weight to advanced stats during his catching days. Nothing he's doing at 1B is really helping his candidacy since he doesn't have the counting numbers that impress. He never cracked 100 RBI, only cracked 90 RBI once, and even 70 RBI only five times. Only one season above 13 HRs and six seasons in the double digits. Walks and doubles don't help much unless they come from an elite runner and base stealer.

 

The counting stat he does have is hits, as you mentioned. It's not a sure thing, but he should reach 2,000 hits if he's healthy and plays at least 3/4 time the next two years or has a big bounce back year. I'm just not sure that'll be enough without elite run production, game-changing power, base-running numbers, or something else to go along with it. Especially when the last 5 years of his career will have been padding that hit total with replacement-level play at 1B.

Yeah Mauer will be a borderline case for the HOF when he gets there. I'm leaning towards him not getting in. When it's all said and done, he'll have as many replacement-level seasons at 1B than he has elite seasons catching. 

[Vanimal46]

As far as the next 2 years he's under contract, Mauer should start his transition to a platoon player next season. A good target should be 100-120 games played. In 2018, he could very well be a bench bat for the final year of the contract. 

[Thrylos]

 

When it's all said and done, he'll have as many replacement-level seasons at 1B than he has elite seasons catching. 

 

Facts:
Above 5 fWAR seasons as a catcher (5): 2006 (5.8), 2008 (5.7), 2009 (7.6), 2010 (5.0), 2013 (5.2)
additionally he had 4.5 fWAR in 2012
Replacement seasons as a first baseman (1) 2015 0.2 fWAR

 

For the above to be true, he would need to have at least 4 seasons 2017-2020 at replacement level.  I suspect that if his 2017 and 2018 are replacement level seasons, he will retire, so the above speculation is highly unlikely... 

[gunnarthor]

 

Yeah Mauer will be a borderline case for the HOF when he gets there. I'm leaning towards him not getting in. When it's all said and done, he'll have as many replacement-level seasons at 1B than he has elite seasons catching. 

While a few players probably played themselves out of the HOF (Jim Kaat) I think voters don't weight the bad seasons as much.  Old traditional type voters will like Mauer as an MVP and only catcher to win a batting title.  New type voters will latch onto his strong WAR totals like Jaffe at SI has.  He'll get in.

[Doomtints]

Mauer's production (and in this case, I mean WAR) is predicted to dip 40% from 2016 levels in 2017.  It is expected to dip 50% from 2016 levels in 2018.  

 

His 2019 numbers are then expected to rise a bit, but still predicted to be roughly 35% below 2016 levels.  However, if the first two are true I would think that he would not be playing in 2019.  He needs to have this bump a year earlier if he wants to keep playing.  

 

His 2020 prediction is not quite nil but very close, so he's not expected to be around for the most part.

 

Edited January 17, 2017 by Doomtints

[pc-Ray]

I remember the young kid who, in his third major league game at the Metrodome, went back for a foul pop, tripped on the rubber warning track and messed up his knee, along with his debut season. I don't believe we've ever seen the best of Joe Maurer as an athlete, although what we have seen has been occasionally spectacular.

 

Maurer is an easy case for the Hall of Fame, if we include the business side of the game. The home-town boy with the Kemps Dairy image and perfect career timing has done about as well as anyone could have imagined, from that point of view. It's too bad his body prevented him from matching that standard on the field.

 

>> "..there have been glimmers of hope..."

 

At this point, any glimmers we see now are likely to be from that distant light at the end of the tunnel.

 

I don't know what I would like to see from Maurer in 2017, but I know what I would like to hear: I'd like Joe to acknowledge that his role on the team is changing.

 

[Taildragger8791]

 

While a few players probably played themselves out of the HOF (Jim Kaat) I think voters don't weight the bad seasons as much.  Old traditional type voters will like Mauer as an MVP and only catcher to win a batting title.  New type voters will latch onto his strong WAR totals like Jaffe at SI has.  He'll get in.

 

I hope so, I just see it being difficult when the guy had a relatively short run of greatness compared to most HOF careers and his game was built around contact & on-base skills and gap power. He had very good defensive skills too, I think that gets lost a lot. It might take him a lot of years on the ballot. It would really help if he had some postseason accolades to point to, but alas, the damn Yankees and Phil Cuzzi.

 

50 career WAR also looks to be on the low end for HoF hitters that played in the last 40 years, and if they're considering only his catching years then he compiled about 45 WAR during that time. I don't think piling up 1-2 WAR per year at 1B for 5+ seasons is a factor in his case.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it will boil down to how voters perceive the concussion and transfer to first base.

 

Will they view it sympathetically, a la Puckett, or as just another injury, a la Mattingly?

 

I suspect that will be the difference maker. Joe had the dominant prime to make the Hall of Fame, that's not in doubt. Catchers who routinely post 5+ WAR seasons and rake in batting titles don't exactly grow on trees.

 

How voters view his sudden transition to first base and mediocrity will likely be the deciding factor.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I remember the young kid who, in his third major league game at the Metrodome, went back for a foul pop, tripped on the rubber warning track and messed up his knee, along with his debut season. I don't believe we've ever seen the best of Joe Maurer as an athlete, although what we have seen has been occasionally spectacular.

 

Maurer is an easy case for the Hall of Fame, if we include the business side of the game. The home-town boy with the Kemps Dairy image and perfect career timing has done about as well as anyone could have imagined, from that point of view. It's too bad his body prevented him from matching that standard on the field.

 

>> "..there have been glimmers of hope..."

 

At this point, any glimmers we see now are likely to be from that distant light at the end of the tunnel.

 

I don't know what I would like to see from Maurer in 2017, but I know what I would like to hear: I'd like Joe to acknowledge that his role on the team is changing.

I have always blamed the rubber mat and I'm serious. He slid and his leg buckled into a man-made substance that wasn't meant to give. He blows out his knee - a month into his career. BS.Rubber on a baseball field.

 

The next two years is very simple: further decline.

Edited January 17, 2017 by ScrapTheNickname

[HitInAPinch]

 

Not really.  There is no significant correlation with age and hard hit %.   Here are a few players around Mauer's age and their hard hit % over the years starting with 2009.  Injuries definitely are a factor, but the thing is random, especially on not consistently all star caliber players:

 

David Wright

2009 30.4%
2010 38.8
2011 32.3
2012 32.7
2013 36.3
2014 34
2015 34.5
2015 47.6

Miguel Cabrera

2009 37.4
2010 44.6
2011 36.9
2012 43
2013 45.1
2014 45
2015 40.1
2016 41.1

 

Ryan Howard

2009 45.6
2010 40.7
2011 36.2
2012 36
2013 43.7
2014 33.6
2015 37.3
2016 45.9

 

Joey Votto

2009 36.5
2010 40
2011 34.5
2012 39.5
2013 37.6
2014 32.4
2015 38.3
2016 38.3

Alexandro De Aza

2009 17.6
2010 29.6
2011 25.2
2012 28.6
2013 23.3
2014 25.5
2015 26.9
2016 43.8

Good stuff today.  THANKS!   

[strumdatjaguar]

Mauer's performance in the next two years is \dependent on his ability to stay healthy enough.   And that is healthy enough to play well, not just to play.   I am skeptical that Joe has this durability.  However, if he can reach that level of health, he can put up numbers at age 34 and 35 like Mark Grace, John Olerud and Will Clark.  A minimal power guy with decent ability to get on base and good fielding.   If he hits .285 with 12 HRs and fields well - I'll take that for four games a week.

Edited January 17, 2017 by strumdatjaguar

[diehardtwinsfan]

To me, the Twins have always needed a decent bat off the bench. That's where a Mauer/Park/Vargas platoon for 1B/DH will consistently leave them with a decent bat off the bench. Mauer isn't the power threat obviously, but a good bet to work the count and get on base. That can be valuable subbing for a weaker hitter in front of some of the power guys.

[spinowner]

I'm sure almost everyone expects Mauer to retire after his contract expires after the 2018 season. But even though it is a bit of a drag on the Twins for the next two seasons it could be worse. The Angels owe Albert Pujols $24M for the coming season. And for next season. And the one after that. And the one after that. And the one after that.

Edited January 18, 2017 by spinowner

[jctwins]

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet:

 

http://www.startribune.com/mauer-says-he-s-healthy-again-molitor-wonders-if-less-is-better/410547275/

 

Most notable:

 

 

“I feel great,” the Twins’ first baseman said Thursday, at a press conference to announce that Billy Joel will play Target Field in July. “I knew it would take time, and it did, but I’m back to where I should be — getting ready to play.”

 

    Mauer ended the season on the bench, suffering from a quad injury that kept getting worse as he tried to keep playing. He appeared in only one game over the season’s final two weeks, and admitted during the final homestand that “I feel terrible. I’ve been feeling terrible for awhile.”

 

 

 

 

 

How wonderful to get this news even before Spring Training when we usually do. 

 

 

 

Full text because it's short:

 

 

 

Three months of rest and treatment have Joe Mauer optimistic again.

 

    “I feel great,” the Twins’ first baseman said Thursday, at a press conference to announce that Billy Joel will play Target Field in July. “I knew it would take time, and it did, but I’m back to where I should be — getting ready to play.”

 

    Mauer ended the season on the bench, suffering from a quad injury that kept getting worse as he tried to keep playing. He appeared in only one game over the season’s final two weeks, and admitted during the final homestand that “I feel terrible. I’ve been feeling terrible for awhile.”

 

    He embarked on a treatment program once the season ended that involved regular stretching, a few treatments from trainers, and lots of rest. “I feel real good about where I am now,” Mauer said. “This offseason has been very productive for me.”

 

    Mauer said he will be fit and ready for the start of training camp in four weeks, and hopeful of bouncing back from a terrible season, both for him and his team. Mauer started the 2016 season strong, playing in each of the Twins’ first 42 games, and he was hitting above .300 through the first week of May. But injuries and an increasing problem hitting lefthanders — just a .224 average and a .291 on-base percentage, both career-lows — plagued him the rest of the season. As the injury worsened, Mauer went into a tailspin, batting just .146 (12 for 82) from Aug. 18 on.

 

      Those problems have given manager Paul Molitor something to think about. Mauer sat out only eight games of the Twins’ first 125, and the manager wonders if the 33-year-old's up-and-down season had something to do with it. “I think the catching takes its toll, even thought he’s not in that position any more. I’m going to try to gauge where he’s at a little bit more,” Molitor said. “I haven’t had a lot of specific conversations with Joe, but … maybe a little less might be a little better.”

 

    One thing that could help, Molitor said: The Twins’ new front office has already invested in new medical equipment to help evaluate their players. “We’re an experimental team,” Molitor joked.

 

 

[Jham]

 

How about some root cause analysis, 'cause if you don't know the cause of this "decline" it is hard to forecast.  And I should probably put this somewhere else, and I still may, but here it goes:

 

The writing is on the wall:  Mauer has to lay off two-seamers, cutters, and changeups, esp if they are low and in.  Can he?  He did last April.

 

Based on the fact that the Twins are getting better with the analytics, and have a couple new coaches on the hitting department that can work things out with Mauer to get the BABIP towards that .350 mark and the soft contact down to 6-7%, a .290/.380/.420 slash is not out of question as a baseline for the next 2 season.

To me, this all boils down to reduced bat speed with perhaps some lingering concussion issue.  Mauer's approach has always been to let the ball get deep then use his exceptional hands and compact swing to make perfect contact.  Seeing the ball longer allowed better pitch selectivity.  As his bat speed has declined, he's had to start his swing earlier to catch up, and he's not able to be as selective.  He's beaten by fastballs and off speed pitches.  He's guessed more and more.  

There are a lot of good hitters who guess a lot, start their swings early, and strike out.  Mauer has only barely adjusted his approach and swing.  It may make sense for him to experiment with a leg kick and a power stroke since he has to start his swing earlier anyway.  Might as well start it much earlier.  

But yeah, my prediction is continued decline.
 

Edited January 18, 2017 by Jham

[D.C Twins]

 

 

He was an exceptional talent and hometown story. We will be happy and thankful for him for years to come as he contributes off the field to the team and community. He earned every cent given from the Twins via his play and marketing over his entire career.

 

BUT...It is my hope that they platoon him and/or give him multiple days off a week as mentioned previously. Place him in situations to succeed as much as possible. This will benefit the player, team, and fans. Joe...the first step is admitting there is a problem...

[rileyroy]

great dominant left handed hitter-- three batting titles-- career hampered with injuries--borderling HOF candidate?   Are we talking about Joe Mauer or Tony Oliva?

[wsnydes]

 

To me, this all boils down to reduced bat speed with perhaps some lingering concussion issue.  Mauer's approach has always been to let the ball get deep then use his exceptional hands and compact swing to make perfect contact.  Seeing the ball longer allowed better pitch selectivity.  As his bat speed has declined, he's had to start his swing earlier to catch up, and he's not able to be as selective.  He's beaten by fastballs and off speed pitches.  He's guessed more and more.  

There are a lot of good hitters who guess a lot, start their swings early, and strike out.  Mauer has only barely adjusted his approach and swing.  It may make sense for him to experiment with a leg kick and a power stroke since he has to start his swing earlier anyway.  Might as well start it much earlier.  

But yeah, my prediction is continued decline.
 

I agree with your assessment completely.  Considering that he's likely guessing more and more, it's fairly remarkable to me that his walk totals have remained pretty steady and even increased last season.  In my mind, that seems little counter-intuitive.

 

I also predict a continued decline.  I hope that he does retire after his contract is up.  I hate seeing aging former stars hang on too long.

Edited January 18, 2017 by wsnydes

[D. Hocking]

I think he will be somewhat similar to last year, but maybe with fewer of the dips if he is rested more.  

 

I could never understand why they did not DL him in August when it was clear something was wrong and a few days rests were not helping, if I remember correctly we were not in play-off contention, and there were plenty of players that could have used a closer look.  I think Molitor later admitted that he made a mistake not DLing right away.  

 

Historically, I think they have been over-sensitive to the "he is soft" criticism that there have been times they have overplayed him to both his and the team's detriment.  It sounds like that will not be the case this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

if I remember correctly we were not in play-off contention

Early contender for 2017 Understatement of the Year award winner.

[EddieMatthews]

Mauer's best season, 2009, started for him in May.  He was in lousy condition and spent April 2009 in Fort Myers getting in shape.  People don't recognize this in their praise of his year.  What numbers would he have posted with another 22 games.  From May thru Oct Mauer played in 138 games and only missed 2 days.

 

The Twins need to find out what training Mauer had in 2009 and get him in that kind of conditioning.  That will improve his bat speed, hard contact, and games played.

 

My guess for 2017 and 2018 is same numbers as we saw in 2014-16 because Mauer will not be in good shape.  Maybe he's over the hill and cannot get in good shape, but this is independent of his concussion issues.  Morneau worked on conditioning post-concussion and was able to win an NL batting title.  

 

Good luck, Joe.

[Willihammer]

 

One thing that could help, Molitor said: The Twins’ new front office has already invested in new medical equipment to help evaluate their players. “We’re an experimental team,” Molitor joked.

[Lefty74]

2 things I would like other opinions (or facts if you have them) on:

1) Watching games as a Twins fan it seems Joe, more than any other player, gets called out on strikes on pitches out of the zone. When he was in his prime if he didn't swing at a close pitch the umpires gave him the benefit of the doubt.......not now. This clearly has added to his strikeout totals

 

2)In the recent Strib article Joe made a statement to the affect that "we're always adjusting at the plate". I just don't see him making adjustments. Certainly you have to work with what the pitcher gives you, however I'd like to see him come up to the plate with a mindset that he's looking to drive the ball early in the count. Why not look for the first pitch on the inner half and if it's there unload? It looks to me that pitchers are really comfortable throwing to Joe since he's so predictable.

[DrNeau]

Just 3 years ago, Joe had 4 HR, a number in which was equaled by an NL pitcher. I predict another pitcher will tie his HR production this year. His last year's numbers of .389 SLG and 49 RBI sound about right. He is due for a good excuse, though. Can't wait to see if he can top last year's one (was a classic):

 

* "I've had blurred vision for three years and have never thought to report it to the team."

[Taildragger8791]

 

1) Watching games as a Twins fan it seems Joe, more than any other player, gets called out on strikes on pitches out of the zone. When he was in his prime if he didn't swing at a close pitch the umpires gave him the benefit of the doubt.......not now. This clearly has added to his strikeout totals

 

I don't know if there's actually any truth to this, but I'd be interested in some stats to back it up. However, it is true that over recent years umpires are calling the low strike more and that's traditionally been Mauer's weaker part of the zone. That's led to more strikeouts and weak contact, but not because he's getting screwed on bad strike calls.

[jimmer]

 

I don't know if there's actually any truth to this, but I'd be interested in some stats to back it up. However, it is true that over recent years umpires are calling the low strike more and that's traditionally been Mauer's weaker part of the zone. That's led to more strikeouts and weak contact, but not because he's getting screwed on bad strike calls.

They've expanded the called strike zone every year since 2010 (starting then) until this year where it was like 2014 (though still quite different than 2009 and before).

 

IMO, patient batters with very keen eyes who were used to a certain strike zone for a long time, have a harder time adjusting. He should be adjusting of course, but for players who are more free swingers, the change in strike zone is less of an issue.

Edited January 19, 2017 by jimmer