Article: How Does Keeping Dozier Fit With Long-Term View?

[DocBauer]

SS was an issue whether we traded Dozier or not. Still is. But at this point, I really think the team should stay pat and see what a healthy Escobar and young Polanco can do. Except for maybe an OF move...not sure I see a big bat signing...I think position wise they are set.

 

I fully expect to see a RP signing shortly. Not sure I can see anything out there to sign in the way of starting Pitching unless the new FO thinks there is a flyer type worth bringing in. And I think Santana will stick around until mid-season now, with no Dozier trade.

 

But how many times has a trade fallen through and the player in question appears to be remaining with their team only to then suddenly be traded when all the rumors died?

[Riverbrian]

 

But how many times has a trade fallen through and the player in question appears to be remaining with their team only to then suddenly be traded when all the rumors died?

 

5?

 

I just thought I'd throw in a guess. 

 

 

 

 

 

[wsnydes]

I guess I'm not seeing how you come to the former in this case. Every time Smith was in a position where he was being forced to make a trade (Santana, Hardy, Garza), he got absolutely raked over the coals. Oh, I forgot Capps...

 

Smith did OK with cost effective pickups during a tight race (Rausch for example), but when he was in a situation like we are with BD, he did the 'take what you can get strategy' and got absolutely nothing. In all of those cases, he would have been better off holding his cards then playing them.

 

I'm not sure the Dozier trade is really any different. Maybe Levi is right and there was far more on the table there and the Twins were being greedy, but based on every press report out there, it's JDL and nothing else special. That is pretty much the definition of a Bill Smith trade. He'd have taken that and that would have been that.

 

A big part of getting value in trades is knowing when to walk away and being willing to do so. I'm disappointed, but truthfully, I'm not surprised. F&L were going to get tested. That may mean failing to trade Dozier, but it also makes real clear to the 29 other GMs that they aren't going to take their scraps.

That's what I mean when I say that Bill Smith made multiple poor trades or decisions. I see him as being in over his head. He didn't make poor decisions because he made other previous poor decisions. He made them because he simply made poor decisions. I don't think there was any connection between them at all aside from being made by the same person. I think we might be saying the same thing in a different way. I agree with your basic point. Trading Dozier for the sake of trading him is dangerous, but so is not trading him at peak value. I don't think we truly know what is on table. As much as I want Dozier traded, with what I've seen reported, I have no idea what I'd do. I think it's good that the braintrust isn't folding, but at the same time I hope that they know what they're doing.

 

The one thing I do know is that I'm glad TR or BS aren't the ones at the negotiating table for this one. This is an important move/non-move.

Edited January 17, 2017 by wsnydes

[mikelink45]

I would label this year the winter of Dozier.  We do not talk about Santana, we have Free Agent signings that make us go to Baseball with a "who the hell are these guys" search and so we make a daily hope that there can be something of interest to speculate or debate.  

 

This has been one boring off season.   Let's hope, somehow, that the season gives us something a little more interesting to think about. 

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

Its good to see that the Sano pitchfork mob is making an early return this year....

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would label this year the winter of Dozier.  We do not talk about Santana, we have Free Agent signings that make us go to Baseball with a "who the hell are these guys" search and so we make a daily hope that there can be something of interest to speculate or debate.  

 

This has been one boring off season.   Let's hope, somehow, that the season gives us something a little more interesting to think about. 

 

In fairness, that isn't unique to the Twins this year.

[D.C Twins]

"Time, Time, Time, Is On Our Side.....Yes It Is!"

[Jordan1212]

Did someone say we can hang in till the playoffs that has got to be a joke? First off we need at least 4 new starting pitchers. Santana is serviceable. May needs to start so we can have someone that throws harder than 88 and a sinker. 2nd off Dozier is worth more than DeLeon that's garbage how much more I don't know he is a career .250 hitter that's not eye popping. He has good defense and can hit it out. But I agree that if that's all there offering no way! We need at least 2 players for him but let's use our scouting skills and pluck someone from A ball that has a pulse at least.

[Jordan1212]

Terry Ryan did no favors by stepping down for bill smith right before we couldn't keep santana and etc. He should be to blame for that not bill smith that's crap. He tried to get what he could and go figure all these guys come here and leave and are great hmm that's what's truly wrong. Carlos Gomez, jj hardy, ra dickey, Matt Garza, Wilson Ramos, Alex Meyer is the latest big joke

[nicksaviking]

Trading a catcher for a relief pitcher we didn't need is like trading for a starting pitcher with six years of control left?

I hated the Ramos/Capps trade and I do love getting new prospects.

 

However Capps had a track record of being a pretty solid pitcher previous to the Twins getting him. The chances of him paying off were/are much higher than De Leon alone, who has done nothing but get torched at the MLB level and at least in my opinion has questionable velocity, repertoire and durability.

[Miraclebat]

 

We are also in this situation because of Ryan

 

Hunter wasn't traded. Santana wasn't traded soon enough, Span was traded for the wrong player, Cuddyer was never traded, Willingham was never traded and so on. And Ryan handpicked Smith (who got a lot of the quality talent we are counting on now in the international marker, BTW)

 

Holding onto quality players too long and getting no value in return is a good way for a mid-small market team to stay down.

Well said!

[mikelink45]

 

In fairness, that isn't unique to the Twins this year.

I know that is true, but how many of those teams have had an equivalent six years and a promise of change?

[IaFan1]

The Twins front office is right to keep Dozier. The Dodgers lowballed the Twins. As much as I would like to have Deleon in the rotation. A straight up trade would be much to low to swap for Dozier. A secondary piece like Brock Stewart and a lower level prospect might make sense. But the Dodgers aren't budging and neither should the Twins. If we aren't really going to be in the mix until 2019 even with Deleon why trade your best player? And all is not lost on the pitching front when viewed a few years down the road. Berrios will be better. Gonsalves is knocking on the door. Tyler Jay may be a good rotation option or a shutdown closer. Alberto Mejia is close. Fernando Romero is a top rotation prospect in 2018. And to a lesser degree, Kohl Stewert and Lewis Thorpe are still in the mix long term. But maybe to a lesser degree.  Without a better Dodgers offer it is wise of the FO to keep him.

[specialiststeve]

 

Don't buy argument that Falvey/Levine should be concerned about what the existing Twins staff feels or about trying to save Molly's job.  Pohlad mentioned a total systems failure of the Twins organization and while he did not give carte blanche to clean house, as evidenced by his stated desire to keep the manager, it is obvious they have a free hand to make changes.  A new scouting director is a sure sign, as is a new hitting instructor.  F&L were brought in to turn this organization upside down and if some of the old-time employees don't like it, well, the exit signs are well lit.

 

But F&L do owe it to long suffering Twin fans, if not to ownership, to right this ship. To go into the new season with a roster no better than last year's, which is the current situation 30 days from spring training, should be worrisome to loyal fans who have withstood 5 out of 6 years of ineptness.  Failure to trade Dozier does not indict the new managment team yet, but failure to make any improvements to a 103 loss team leaves a great deal of uncertainty to what they are capable of.  Patience is a virtue at times, but after sitting thru the many years of Ryan's inaction, I doubt many of us will sit still for continued ineptitude much longer.  Hopefully, this roster will see some significant changes by midseason at the latest. 

We do have to understand that Buxton, Kepler, Murphy, Grossman, Santiago, Polanco, Kintzler, and half the arms we brought up last year were "new". What we all need to understand is that there is a learning curve and most most of the time it takes a year to two years to "catch up to speed".  Jackie Bradley of the bosox is perfect example as well as many others. Patience is very hard for our society now in the immediate satisfaction world. We have some GREAT young players that just need to be given time to get it and we will be fine.

[blindeke]

The focus needs to be on getting good pitching, not mollifying Molly.

[DocBauer]

Even were Dozier traded tomorrow, to the Dodgers or anyone else, (and it could still happen), the guys brought in are/were not going to change the team'should situation overnight. Keeping BD, at least for now, still gives the team another high quality position player on the roster. This is not a bad thing. Maybe a missed opportunity to add talent in another area, but not a bad thing. To paraphrase a different article here on TD a couple weeks ago, it changes the questions on the roster and what to do, but doesn't necessarily create more questions.

 

There are different ways to build a team and improve on weaknesses. Falvey and Levine have first hand knowledge of this from their time in their previous organizations. A Dozier trade is still a real possibility. The FA SP class next season could and should be better than this year. The Twins DO have some quality young arms here and close. Predicting true future success for most any prospect is very difficult. To just flatly believe/state that none of these guys won't turn out to be very good is short sighted. I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't look for as many good, young, upside arms as possible. But we shouldn't just dismiss what is coming up and their potential, just as JDL from the Dodgers shouldn't automatically be thought of as a future #1-2 starter.

 

The Twins and their new FO still have an opportunity to improve the 2017 Twins without passing out huge questionable deals or blocking anyone. A quality RH 4th OF to increase roster depth and lineup flexability and a quality RP to deepen the bullpen are two obvious ways of doing so. A big bat? I'm not opposed to this idea, and the new FO has no significant investment in Park or Vargas, but giving these guys a real shot may make more sense at this point. And yet, both guys have options still....

 

The biggest area of concern still remains the rotation, and I won't pretend that it's not. But if you have a weak area on your team, don't you try to also overcome said weakness by improving other areas to help compensate? And this is where I'm anxious and interested to see what Falvey and Levine do for the NOW.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the main problem with adding bats is at the end of the day, there aren't many positions we can improve.  You have lots of young talent that just needs repetition more than anything else. Catcher was the biggest weakness.  We might help the framing aspect of things, for whatever that is actually worth, but Castro isn't a good hitter.  The OF needs time mostly.  Sano needs time at 3rd.  SS didn't have much for options. Escobar is a fine placeholder, and there's decent options in the high minors.  1B could improve, but Mauer isn't going anywhere. 

 

So yeah, it's back to the rotation. At least next year there will be some decent FA options there.

[Twodogs]

Like some car dealer tells you that this offer will last only for a limited time, as soon as I hear that, I walk out the door.  You don't trade him for garbage just because you think that is what you are supposed to do.  Just like that car dealer, if I keep looking, there are always different cars for sale, I definitely don't need some specific model at some specific price that will only last until 3pm today, F that guy, I will find a better deal if I keep looking.  If you are one of those guys that get suckered into one of those lines then you will find yourself driving around in undervalued cars most of your life.

 

Also, the last few years it seems like the Twins have made lots of fairly big moves in the off-season, or at least medium sized moves and where has that gotten them??  Maybe see how these kids improve their game over the first half of the year?  See where they can go if they just get to play.  I know a big giant deficiency is at relief pitcher and the Twins don't have the best defense.  But see where it goes, now if someone blows our socks off, because they need a 2nd baseman because maybe their guy gets injured in spring training then go for it.  But don't sell low because someone tells you that you are running out of time.

[mike8791]

 

Even were Dozier traded tomorrow, to the Dodgers or anyone else, (and it could still happen), the guys brought in are/were not going to change the team'should situation overnight. Keeping BD, at least for now, still gives the team another high quality position player on the roster. This is not a bad thing. Maybe a missed opportunity to add talent in another area, but not a bad thing. To paraphrase a different article here on TD a couple weeks ago, it changes the questions on the roster and what to do, but doesn't necessarily create more questions.

There are different ways to build a team and improve on weaknesses. Falvey and Levine have first hand knowledge of this from their time in their previous organizations. A Dozier trade is still a real possibility. The FA SP class next season could and should be better than this year. The Twins DO have some quality young arms here and close. Predicting true future success for most any prospect is very difficult. To just flatly believe/state that none of these guys won't turn out to be very good is short sighted. I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't look for as many good, young, upside arms as possible. But we shouldn't just dismiss what is coming up and their potential, just as JDL from the Dodgers shouldn't automatically be thought of as a future #1-2 starter.

The Twins and their new FO still have an opportunity to improve the 2017 Twins without passing out huge questionable deals or blocking anyone. A quality RH 4th OF to increase roster depth and lineup flexability and a quality RP to deepen the bullpen are two obvious ways of doing so. A big bat? I'm not opposed to this idea, and the new FO has no significant investment in Park or Vargas, but giving these guys a real shot may make more sense at this point. And yet, both guys have options still....

The biggest area of concern still remains the rotation, and I won't pretend that it's not. But if you have a weak area on your team, don't you try to also overcome said weakness by improving other areas to help compensate? And this is where I'm anxious and interested to see what Falvey and Levine do for the NOW.

A nicely balanced argument!  Gets to the root of what bothers at least some of us about the off-season so far - Twins' have focused almost exclusively on Dozier to the exclusion of making any other significant moves.  This is just not acceptable after a 103 loss season!  

What is so bothersome is there have been players available(Tyson Ross, Neftali Feliz, Greg Holland, to name a few) who could provide small, yet perhaps significant improvement in areas of obvious need.  Adding a big bat would augment an iffy offense that could make a major jump forward or just as easily, sideways,  Counting on first or second year players is very risky business, especially when considering the Twins' decade long stretch of futility in failing to develop their draft picks into solid major leaguers.

As the Cubs blueprint shows it is a combination of trades, excellent draft choices, and free agent signings that lead to long term success.  F&L have not had a chance in drafting yet(and their reassigning Deron Johnson is a start in the right direction) but they have been strangely passive in the other two areas.  Hoping that the current core progresses significantly to achieve contention is not a strategy - it is a hope.  We've seen enough of that policy under Ryan to remain sceptical that this is the right path.

[DocBauer]

I think the main problem with adding bats is at the end of the day, there aren't many positions we can improve.  You have lots of young talent that just needs repetition more than anything else. Catcher was the biggest weakness.  We might help the framing aspect of things, for whatever that is actually worth, but Castro isn't a good hitter.  The OF needs time mostly.  Sano needs time at 3rd.  SS didn't have much for options. Escobar is a fine placeholder, and there's decent options in the high minors.  1B could improve, but Mauer isn't going anywhere. 

 

So yeah, it's back to the rotation. At least next year there will be some decent FA options there.

I absolutely agree with your post. And I'm not saying the Twins should or should not go after one of the remaining bats on the market. But it is an interesting idea. It's the one area where you could make a move/change to the everyday lineup since there are still question marks surrounding Vargas and Park and each has at least 1 option remaining. Personally, I think both still have potential and wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Park hit .250-is, as he did for a while, and crank out 24-25 HR. If Mauer gets hurt again, could see real opportunity for both in the lineup.

 

I know it's really easy to get down on the Twins rotation options, and it remains our biggest concern, and there is a sense of disappointment with no other top young candidate coming in AT THE MOMENT, but I actually hold out some hope that I don't believe is misguided.

 

Hughes is a huge question mark, but if he could return to his former healthy self, even a couple months after the season began, it could be a real boon. Santana is solid. Santiago is nothing special and can be frustrating, but his career numbers are solid, and he closed out last year much better for us than when he arrived. A 2013-14 version of Gibson is also solid. I'm still high on Berrios and May as well. I feel Wheeler and Haley offer better depth options than the likes of Dean and Albers, at least marginally. Mejia and Gonsalves could make appearances by the second half of the year.

 

It's a collection of 3-5 starters who occassionally pitch like a #2. You aren't going to build a contender with this bunch barring some real surprises. But it's a group that has potential, IMO, to be at least average while the young guys, including Berrios and May, gain experience and continue to move up. There are still tradesome possible at some point, as well as a potential FA signing next off season.

 

So I maintain if a Dozier deal doesnt happen at this point, bring in a RP to deepen and improve the pen. Find that quality 4th OF you feel can really help and play. Work in some platoons and match ups where it makes sense. Make 2017 the best it can be, make the milb and organizational upgrades where you will, keep playing the young guys on a daily basis, promote aggressively the second half of the season, hold auditions and look to future trades and signings for the 2018 rotation while building that lineup and bullpen.

 

This was never going to be fixed in one off season with one trade anyway.

[DocBauer]

A nicely balanced argument!  Gets to the root of what bothers at least some of us about the off-season so far - Twins' have focused almost exclusively on Dozier to the exclusion of making any other significant moves.  This is just not acceptable after a 103 loss season!  

What is so bothersome is there have been players available(Tyson Ross, Neftali Feliz, Greg Holland, to name a few) who could provide small, yet perhaps significant improvement in areas of obvious need.  Adding a big bat would augment an iffy offense that could make a major jump forward or just as easily, sideways,  Counting on first or second year players is very risky business, especially when considering the Twins' decade long stretch of futility in failing to develop their draft picks into solid major leaguers.

As the Cubs blueprint shows it is a combination of trades, excellent draft choices, and free agent signings that lead to long term success.  F&L have not had a chance in drafting yet(and their reassigning Deron Johnson is a start in the right direction) but they have been strangely passive in the other two areas.  Hoping that the current core progresses significantly to achieve contention is not a strategy - it is a hope.  We've seen enough of that policy under Ryan to remain sceptical that this is the right path.

Excellent post!

 

This team has the financial flexability to still make some moves, and the need to do so. I believe Falvey and Levine have, and IMO rightly so, have been focusing on Dozier first and foremost while letting the smoke clear on the FA front. A Dozier move may lead to a Santana move, and would also lead to an infield move, etc. Meanwhile, keeping Dozier changes the complexion of the infield and probably retains Santana for now. Further, with smoke clearing and dust settling, there are still remaining FA targets that could help the 2017 Twins, cheaper and shorter contracts as we get closer to ST, and possible flip candidates there as well.

 

I truly believe these guys have some good ideas in mind and you will see a few solid/interesting moves taking place over the next couple of weeks. Questionable rotation and nothing truly worth bringing in as an obvious upgrade? Short of a potential flyer/steal, make your bullpen deeper and bettter to keep games close and hold leads and keep games close. Worried about said rotation holding runs down? In addition to said bullpen move (s), add a quality RH 4th OF to augment depth and match ups with the LH Rosario and Kepler. Not in love with Park and Vargas, (and I've previously stated I'd like to see what they can do), sign that veteran power bat to augment the depth and scoring ability of my lineup.

 

Once again, none of these moves has to be long term, and none of them block up and coming talent, unless you talk about Park and Vargas, and could be flip candidates. There are a lot of ways to build a roster. The market didn't open up for Dozier as hoped. Fine. It is what it is. So what can you do NOW to improve the Twins for 2017 and beyond? A lot of that will still remain more behind the scenes. But there are still real options on the field that can be addressed as well.

[frightwig]

 

As the Cubs blueprint shows it is a combination of trades, excellent draft choices, and free agent signings that lead to long term success.

 

The Cubs also tanked 2-3 years after hiring Epstein/Hoyer, before spending a lot of money when they felt ready to make a run. (A fivethirtyeight.com article called it the biggest talent haul by spending spree for a championship club since the '97 Marlins; Theo's 2004 Red Sox title was another notable store-bought trophy.) It looks like Falvey really hopes to trade his veteran assets, or unload guys like Plouffe who are just in the way, and get with the full youth movement as soon as possible. If that means another last-place finish and more high draft picks next year, that ought to suit the front office plans just fine. Whether the Twins will start spending big to fill out the roster around the young core in a few years, well... we shall see.

 

And about the Twins just "giving Dozier away"... Remember that Jose De Leon was the #23 BA prospect before last season, when he'd just split his year between A+/AA. In 2016 at AAA, he showed excellent command + a high strikeout rate and ability to get a lot of pop-ups. Even in his 17 IP with the Dodgers, where he was dinged by high HR rates and a low LOB%, his swing-and-miss rate in the strike zone compared favorably to the best pitchers in the game. The kid controls the zone and misses bats. This is what we want.

 

I get the desire to hedge your bets by snagging some promising secondary pieces in a deal, and I don't blame the Twins for wanting to get maximum value off Dozier's big season. On the other hand, we know how streaky Dozier can be. Maybe he carries his hot bat into next July, and maybe there will be a few contenders lining up to bid on him then. But would you have a lot of confidence in making that bet? There's a fair chance that, like he has before, Dozier slumps for 2-3 months and the idea of getting a Top 25 prospect for him at the trade deadline is just a joke.

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I get the desire to hedge your bets by snagging some promising secondary pieces in a deal, and I don't blame the Twins for wanting to get maximum value off Dozier's big season.

It's not just that he's coming off a huge season, it's that you're getting him for two years. I would bet this is the primary hold-up for MN's front office.

 

If you're trading for the final year of Dozier's contract, fine, Jose De Leon on his own is a fair offer. But when you're talking two years of a star player, in his prime, at a good price, you can't do a 1-for-1 deal unless you feel the guy is an absolute can't-miss lock. I love De Leon but he's not that. He'll turn 25 this year and he hasn't thrown 120 innings in a season. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you're trading for the final year of Dozier's contract, fine, Jose De Leon on his own is a fair offer. But when you're talking two years of a star player, in his prime, at a good price, you can't do a 1-for-1 deal unless you feel the guy is an absolute can't-miss lock. I love De Leon but he's not that. He'll turn 25 this year and he hasn't thrown 120 innings in a season. 

Yeah, this. It wouldn't take much more than De Leon to pry Dozier away from me but I need more than a guy whose track record pretty closely mirrors Jose Berrios, except two years older and without the durability.

 

De Leon is a really nice piece but he's not a can't-miss prospect... Unless you consider Berrios a can't-miss prospect, which I certainly do not.

 

And, again, Berrios has age and durability on his side. I wouldn't call De Leon an injury risk but there are concerns about his ability to pitch a full season simply because he hasn't done it yet. The innings requirement to be an MLB starter has been the death knell of many a pitching prospect over the years and there is always a risk involved when a prospect hasn't shown the capability to go 160+ innings, no matter his reasons for never doing so.

 

Give me De Leon and one of Stewart, Alvarez, Buehler, etc. and that's probably enough to get the deal done for me... But trading a guy worth nearly 15 WAR over the past three seasons for a single prospect with question marks isn't a good gamble. You want a second guy in there to offset some of the risk of De Leon.