Article: How Does Keeping Dozier Fit With Long-Term View?

[brvama]

IMO, This statement from Nick is the most important of all: "... the individuals charged with this Dozier decision are coming into the situation with clear eyes, and no inherent illusions about the current state of the organization."

 

Those are views of two outsiders on Dozier's value. I'll defer to them,

 

[Kwak]

Consider the effect of trading Dozier for the limited offer LA provided simply because "we need pitching, and this is the best offer!" and then wait 2-3 years when Sano has to be traded. If the Twins cave on a Dozier trade, every GM will expect (demand?) that they cave on every other trade. Management must establish that the Twins aren't "BB player flippers".

[Doomtints]

Good question.  Keeping Dozier delays the long term plans, I should think.

[DocBauer]

I believe I stated early on when the FO took charge that other than a potential Dozier deal, what would take place this year was more behind the scenes actions than on the field moves. I still believe this to be true and in action. And I'm OK with this.

 

Despite being experienced baseball men who surely have at least some feel and knowledge of the players and personnel in the Twins system, their knowledge still came at a distance and through second hand knowledge. What they have to do, and I believe are doing even now, is exams said players and personnel from top to bottom, as well as implementing their own various tweaks, changes, and staffing upgrades and moves. Honestly, it would be pretty short sighted for them, or any new management team, to immediately come in and hand out pink slips. The entire organization has to be examined and a new structure of doing things put in place.

 

Do I believe they have made an honest attempt to move Dozier and gain assets? Yes. It appears, for now, the return simply hasn't been there. We talk about the Twins past office never selling high on players. Just as egregious can be forcing your hand to sell low.

 

I don't believe the book is closed on trading off Dozier now, or in the future. Nor do I believe they are done making moves to enhance the club. I would be very surprised if we don't see a few more moves or signings before ST starts. But clearly, this was the first major domino to fall...or not fall...before moving forward in whatever capacity they see fit. I will not judge them because in the first few months they began to install a culture and way of doing things and did not immediately blow up the franchise.

[sploorp]

The most alarming part of the whole trading Dozier thing is how many fans think the team has to trade Dozier or they've failed.  Personally, I feel that couldn't be more wrong.

 

Trading Dozier means the team gets to move Polanco to 2nd.  They even say it's his "natural" position.  I have no idea what that means.  Maybe it's just a nice way of saying failed short stop.  If that's the case, then I guess that makes Dozier a natural 2nd basemen too.  It probably also means that the majors are already loaded with natural second basemen and could be why it has been so difficult pulling off a trade.

 

The net gain defensively is a push and we lose Dozier's power bat.  Even if Dozier never comes close to hitting 42 again, 20-25 isn't an unreasonable expectation and would still make him one of the most productive 2nd basemen in baseball.

 

For me the big burning question of a Dozier trade becomes who will replace Polanco at short?  Please don't say Escobar or Santana because if they were so good, they would already be playing it instead of Polanco.

 

It would be one thing if Gordon or some other total stud SS was chomping at the bit and ready to come up.  If that were the case, I could look at a deal as paving the way for the team's short stop of the future and would be much more receptive to trading Dozier.  As is though, I see the team taking two steps backwards and they'll need a huge return just to break even.

 

No deal is better than a bad deal and this is a bad deal no matter how you try to sell it.  Right now, the very real result of trading could be watching Dozier in the playoffs or even the world series while De Leon recovers from Tommy John surgery.

 

Kudos to the new management team for not caving.  If the Dodgers don't want to pony up, just wait until the deadline and see a better deal can be made.  Maybe Gordon will be ready move up by then.

 

Heck, I wouldn't even mind seeing the team extend Dozier a few more years - especially if he has a slow start.  He says he wants to stay in Minnesota, let's find out how bad.

[drivlikejehu]

There are always a lot of unknowns in baseball. I think it may be hard for Falvey & Levine to basically give away Dozier and his 2018 season without seeing if they can make progress on run prevention in 2017 and set the Twins up to be respectable in 2018.

 

Now, they haven't actually done anything, but at least part of the problem has been management of existing talent (e.g., moving May to the bullpen). They also may be willing to move more aggressively with prospects, when appropriate.

 

We know that Falvey & Levine are both from orgs that made plenty of deals, and that they are willing to trade Dozier. They undoubtedly understand the ramifications of not trading him. 

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

 

Holding onto quality players too long and getting no value in return is a good way for a mid-small market team to stay down.

So is caving on a trade and getting no value in return.

[gocgo]

I think what they are being offered now, they can get at the trade deadline.  So, why not get another half year out of Dozier?

[Vanimal46]

I've never seen a new regime get praised so much for doing nothing.

[jimmer]

 

I've never seen a new regime get praised so much for doing nothing.

You forget about the bold move of getting Castro :-)

[Thrylos]

 

If the Twins keep Dozier and then add one of the remaining big bats on the free agent market then with a few breaks they could potentially hang around the wild card race into September. They should not deal Dozier just to get "something". They should continue to hold out for maximum value.

 

Can they pitch?  Hitting was not the Twins' problems in 2016, other than early in the season with Mr Dozier being one of the worst offenders...

[Thrylos]

 

Have we forgotten the Bill Smith era already?  He did some great things with international signings, but part of the reason this org is where it is right now is due to the talent that got given away for nothing... and he did far more than once.

 

So the Twins were a Wilson Ramos or a Matt Garza away from respectability from 2011-16?  I think not.   Remember that Gardy & Andy were major cogs in those trades of players they did not like, like Garza, Gomez, Hardy etc.

 

Bill Smith was a better GM than Terry Ryan.  Check the Twins' record under each, if you don't believe me.

Edited January 16, 2017 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

You forget about the bold move of getting Castro :-)

 

And promoting the person who has been responsible for the Twins' drafts the past decade

And keeping around the persons who have been responsible for the Twins' player development the past seasons

And signing Vogelsong

(and a partridge on a pear tree)

[Tomj14]

 

Can they pitch?  Hitting was not the Twins' problems in 2016, other than early in the season with Mr Dozier being one of the worst offenders...

Honest question is only having 1 regular with an OWAR above 1.8 an issue? (and that being the one we are talking about trading?)

Edited January 16, 2017 by Tomj14

[drivlikejehu]

 

I've never seen a new regime get praised so much for doing nothing.

 

There's a difference between praising and withholding judgment. I don't see a lot of 'praise' for the new regime, just recognition of the fact that there's only so much they can do with respect to various issues. Pohlad forced them to keep Molitor for 2017, the trade market for 2nd basemen is tragic, the crop of free agents is atrocious, etc. 

 

Dozier-related criticism is largely premised on the idea that surely there is some way to get a fair return . . . yet no one on here has any evidence to support that view, and the available reports contradict it.

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

And promoting the person who has been responsible for the Twins' drafts the past decade

 

This is a distortion - Johnson was clearly "promoted" only in a face-saving sense. In reality he was removed as scouting director.

[Vanimal46]

 

There's a difference between praising and withholding judgment. I don't see a lot of 'praise' for the new regime, just recognition of the fact that there's only so much they can do with respect to various issues. Pohlad forced them to keep Molitor for 2017, the trade market for 2nd basemen is tragic, the crop of free agents is atrocious, etc. 

 

Dozier-related criticism is largely premised on the idea that surely there is some way to get a fair return . . . yet no one on here has any evidence to support that view, and the available reports contradict it.

This thread has been okay so far. I've read several times on other threads "Kudos to Falvey & Levine for not caving in on making a trade"

If I had a nickel for every time someone said "Kudos to TR for not caving in on making a trade" I may have 1 nickel.  

[Han Joelo]

I like Nick's perspective. This Dozier drama has been an interesting case study in optimism vs. pessimism. There's some of both on both sides, for sure, but the tenor of the "trade Dozier for whatever the Dodgers offered" comments tends to skew towards pessimism. Unless you're extremely optimistic about Deleon. But hey, I was once pretty optimistic about Alex Meyer, Delois Guerra, and Boof Bonser. And Jose Berrios. Wait, maybe I'm the pessimist!

[HitInAPinch]

There was an article in the Strib that had the boys saying that there would probably be more activity later this month.  Also, Jim was saying:

 

“They never said they were going to make splashy moves. There was no expectation or instruction to make splashy moves just for the sake of change,” Twins owner Jim Pohlad said. “It’s more important to evaluate how to make the team more consistently competitive over the long haul, and I’m confident that’s what they’re trying to do.”

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-new-bosses-derek-falvey-thad-levine-take-the-guarded-route/410597805/

[USAFChief]

I've never seen a new regime get praised so much for doing nothing.

In my case, I'm happy they haven't given Dozier away, while still pretty disappointed overall at the lack of attempts to improve the team for 2017 and beyond.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This thread has been okay so far. I've read several times on other threads "Kudos to Falvey & Levine for not caving in on making a trade"

If I had a nickel for every time someone said "Kudos to TR for not caving in on making a trade" I may have 1 nickel.  

 

Well even so that's pretty limited praise, 'good job not getting taken to the cleaners.' And TR had established a clear pattern of failing to make trades when he should have.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree with what you're saying, but I think there's a difference between a guy making multiple unrelated poor decisions/trades and a guy that makes poor decisions because he made a poor decision before.  I would put Bill Smith in the former category.  Even the best GM's/Managers/etc have things go astray now and then.  I've said multiple times that the hallmark of a good manager is how they deal with errors.  Do they compound them by continuing to double down on it or do they admit to their mistakes and take corrective measures to correct the error and learn from it.

 

I guess I'm not seeing how you come to the former in this case. Every time Smith was in a position where he was being forced to make a trade (Santana, Hardy, Garza), he got absolutely raked over the coals. Oh, I forgot Capps...

 

Smith did OK with cost effective pickups during a tight race (Rausch for example), but when he was in a situation like we are with BD, he did the 'take what you can get strategy' and got absolutely nothing. In all of those cases, he would have been better off holding his cards then playing them. 

 

I'm not sure the Dozier trade is really any different. Maybe Levi is right and there was far more on the table there and the Twins were being greedy, but based on every press report out there, it's JDL and nothing else special.  That is pretty much the definition of a Bill Smith trade. He'd have taken that and that would have been that.

 

A big part of getting value in trades is knowing when to walk away and being willing to do so.  I'm disappointed, but truthfully, I'm not surprised. F&L were going to get tested.  That may mean failing to trade Dozier, but it also makes real clear to the 29 other GMs that they aren't going to take their scraps.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well even so that's pretty limited praise, 'good job not getting taken to the cleaners.' And TR had established a clear pattern of failing to make trades when he should have.

 

Yeah, I'm really wondering where this idea is coming from that TR caved when it came to making trades. He only made them when he got value back, and he wasn't known to make them that often at all.  His main criticism (and rightfully so in some cases) was holding out for too much value.

[Kwak]

 

This is a distortion - Johnson was clearly "promoted" only in a face-saving sense. In reality he was removed as scouting director.

"Kicked Upstairs"?

[Doomtints]

 

So is caving on a trade and getting no value in return.

 

If we're back on this again, I don't think any of the assets on the table have "no value."

 

You could argue with a straight face that they have LESS value, but no value?

[Otto von Ballpark]

In my case, I'm happy they haven't given Dozier away, while still pretty disappointed overall at the lack of attempts to improve the team for 2017 and beyond.

Yeah, part of keeping Dozier has to be a pivot towards winning in 2017-2018 and that hasn't happened. And without a credible threat of it happening, it probably reduces the Dodgers urgency of finalizing a deal with Minnesota.

[Mike Sixel]

Consider the effect of trading Dozier for the limited offer LA provided simply because "we need pitching, and this is the best offer!" and then wait 2-3 years when Sano has to be traded. If the Twins cave on a Dozier trade, every GM will expect (demand?) that they cave on every other trade. Management must establish that the Twins aren't "BB player flippers".

Do we know this to be true? And why is Sano being traded?

[Otto von Ballpark]

So the Twins were a Wilson Ramos or a Matt Garza away from respectability from 2011-16? I think not. Remember that Gardy & Andy were major cogs in those trades of players they did not like, like Garza, Gomez, Hardy etc.

 

Bill Smith was a better GM than Terry Ryan. Check the Twins' record under each, if you don't believe me.

Not to sidetrack the thread further, but part of a GM's job (maybe a huge part) is knowing who to listen to within the organization, and when to listen to them. Smith wasn't good at that, apparently.

[Mike Sixel]

Have we forgotten the Bill Smith era already? He did some great things with international signings, but part of the reason this org is where it is right now is due to the talent that got given away for nothing... and he did far more than once.

Trading a catcher for a relief pitcher we didn't need is like trading for a starting pitcher with six years of control left? The Santana trade would look a lot better had they kept Hardy....A lot

[Kwak]

 

Do we know this to be true? And why is Sano being traded?

Because his agent and he conclude that life's better on a big market team that will surround him with talent, has more "income potential", and won't hassle him about about weight, defense, etc.  

 

It's not difficult for an athlete to conclude things would be better outside of Minnesota.  Then, there's the Pohlad's ... .