Article: Impasse

[DodgerFan1234]

 

 

By the way, the Dodgers FanFest is free for all fans and don't charge unlike our Twins. So another reason a deal gets done, the Dodgers like to please their fans.

*cough* Greinke *cough* Not Getting Hamels 2015 *cough*

Edited January 14, 2017 by DodgerFan1234

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It would make a lot of sense.

 

Unless the Dodgers just refuse to pay that much for a guy based on a career year.  I know this is a Twins forum, but if the situation were reversed - what would we say if we analyzed Brian Dozier?  Would we pay a Top 25 prospect and another in the Top 100?  

 

Maybe we'll get that, but the notion that it's a "bad deal" if it's anything less strikes me as a fundamental misread of the value of Brian Dozier.  A misread we may later regret.

 

Is Buehler even a top 100 prospect?  For some reason I didn't think he was.  I do like him as well. He's likely a fast riser, and his fall in the draft was not due to potential but injury.  He's got ace upside, but... he's got a grand total of 5 innings pitched in the minors due to said injury... 5.  2017 will most likely be a getting used to the grind type year, and due to the injury his workload will be monitored and his stamina is highly likely to fall off.  This means that even being a possible fast riser, he's not sniffing the rotation until mid 2018 at best.  Personally, I'd prefer Stewart here as he's ML ready now and has modest upside as well... but he's off the table too apparently.

 

Honestly, if a JDL/Buehler package wasn't on the table... well... again, I have to think LA is lowballing us pretty bad. There's an enormous amount of risk with Buehler.  He's a high upside pick that has a lot of risk attached to him.  But if even that isn't a worthy 2nd player, then I hate to think what they want added for a 3rd player.  You can forget guys like Ruiz or Lux. If Buehler wasn't on the table as a second piece, there's no way guys like that would have been available as a final piece.

 

I'm with drjim or RB here.  You don't trade in that scenario.  I get that LA may be high on him.  That's fine.  But you have to give value to get it.

[Willihammer]

 

Here would be my question for those who would rather keep Dozier over taking DeLeon. An honest question.

What is the path forward to build a rotation worthy of contention? And what time frame are we working on? We had a 5.08 ERA last year with a good year out of Ervin (3.38 ERA). DeLeon is a piece and IMO Dozier is the only non Sano/Buxton/Kepler asset that we may have to bring back quality young pitching.

1. replace Nolasco with Santiago for a full year

2. Give Mejia a rotation spot

3. Give Berrios a full year

4. If Hughes is back, give him a spot

5. Give May another shot

 

Next year, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, some other riser.  Maybe Duffey figures it out.

 

The rotation did suck in 2016 but the situation isn't nearly as static as people make it out to be. There is a huge range of outcomes that are possible on the pitching side regardless of whether they add De Leon to the mix (who is a wildly overrated prospect IMO).

 

Trade prospects for Quintana. They have yet another top 10 pick coming after all. Plus #'s 35 and 37 and a huge draft pool.

 

Sign Bautista or Holland with a mind to flipping at the deadline.

[Doomtints]

Impasse:  When things are so hopeless, you have to start speaking in French.

[TheLeviathan]

 

1. replace Nolasco with Santiago for a full year

2. Give Mejia a rotation spot

3. Give Berrios a full year

4. If Hughes is back, give him a spot

5. Give May another shot

 

Next year, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, some other riser.  Maybe Duffey figures it out.

 

Trade prospects for Quintana. They have yet another top 10 pick coming after all. Plus #'s 35 and 37 and a huge draft pool.

 

Do you have any idea what the price tag is on Quintana?  Think: Sale.  That ain't happening.

 

So you think we build a contending rotation out of "giving a shot" to Santiago, Hughes, and May and then hoping two or three young guys figure it out?

 

I'm amazed anyone could type this plan and feel reassured it would work.  For that I give you kudos, but there is enormous risk here (young pitchers, injuries, or unprovens all over) and very little upside.  This plan's ceiling is "doesn't totally suck".

 

No thanks.

[Willihammer]

 

Do you have any idea what the price tag is on Quintana?  Think: Sale.  That ain't happening.

 

So you think we build a contending rotation out of "giving a shot" to Santiago, Hughes, and May and then hoping two or three young guys figure it out?

 

I'm amazed anyone could type this plan and feel reassured it would work.  For that I give you kudos, but there is enormous risk here (young pitchers, injuries, or unprovens all over) and very little upside.  This plan's ceiling is "doesn't totally suck".

 

No thanks.

1. We don't know for a fact a Quintana trade is impossible. Some combo of Kepler, Berrios, Sano, might be enough to get the convo started, or it might not.

 

2. I think you're underrating the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, and Romero, and overrating the upside of JDL. Seriously, have you seen that guy pitch? I can only assume that everyone who thinks he moves the needle hasn't watched him very closely. Go back and watch his Sept 4 start against the Padres, his best start of the season. You'll see a lot of 89s by the third inning and a lot of BIPs on the lauded changeup. Berrios is a way better prospect.

 

Out of curiosity, if the Twins did add JDL, who would you bump from the rotation?

Edited January 14, 2017 by Willihammer

[TheLeviathan]

 

1. We don't know for a fact a Quintana trade is impossible. Some combo of Kepler, Berrios, Sano, might be enough to get the convo started, or it might not.

 

2. I think you're underrating the upside of Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, and Romero, and overrating the upside of JDL. Seriously, have you seen that guy pitch? I can only assume that everyone who thinks he moves the needle hasn't watched him very closely. Go back and watch his Sept 4 start against the Padres, his best start of the season. You'll see a lot of 89s by the third inning and a lot of BIPs on the lauded changeup. Berrios is a way better prospect.

 

Out of curiosity, if the Twins did add JDL, who would you bump from the rotation?

 

If you are trading Sano and Berrios for Quintana (something I would bet you are in the vast minority in favor of doing) then you need to take Berrios out of your plans for the rotation.  You should read up on what was being asked for around the league for him.  It rivaled Sale.  I do appreciate you being open abuot this though.  Most people who toss out the "we should just fix it" aren't brave enough it seems to face the reality of what it would take. 

 

Though I don't get why we'd wince at trading Dozier and then leap at trading Sano and Berrios.  I can't get behind that.

 

As for our second point, I'm not underestimating those player's upside, I'm being realistic about what to expect from them in 2017.  For at least half of those young guys they may not even pitch in the big leagues while Dozier is a Twin and if they do they are probably rookies when they do.  I wouldn't expect much, that's something we frequently do unfairly here - expect rookies to hit their ceiling right away.  

 

And DeLeon is in the rotation because I highly, highly doubt Phil Hughes is a capable SP out of spring training.  And we may not want him there anyway.

Edited January 14, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[Willihammer]

 

If you are trading Sano and Berrios for Quintana (something I would bet you are in the vast minority in favor of doing) then you need to take Berrios out of your plans for the rotation.  You should read up on what was being asked for around the league for him.  It rivaled Sale.  I do appreciate you being open abuot this though.  Most people who toss out the "we should just fix it" aren't brave enough it seems to face the reality of what it would take. 

 

Though I don't get why we'd wince at trading Dozier and then leap at trading Sano and Berrios.  I can't get behind that.

 

As for our second point, I'm not underestimating those player's upside, I'm being realistic about what to expect from them in 2017.  For at least half of those young guys they may not even pitch in the big leagues while Dozier is a Twin and if they do they are probably rookies when they do.  I wouldn't expect much, that's something we frequently do unfairly here - expect rookies to hit their ceiling right away.  

 

And DeLeon is in the rotation because I highly, highly doubt Phil Hughes is a capable SP out of spring training.  And we may not want him there anyway.

I assumed Hughes was out. Who else? Gibson?

[TheLeviathan]

If we dealt for DeLeon I'd like to see this rotation:

 

Berrios-DeLeon-Gibson-Santana-Santiago with Meija and May in the mix for the fifth spot as well.  I'd probably prefer May.

 

I also hope Santana is dealt in July.

[Willihammer]

 

If we dealt for DeLeon I'd like to see this rotation:

 

Berrios-DeLeon-Gibson-Santana-Santiago with Meija and May in the mix for the fifth spot as well.  I'd probably prefer May.

 

I also hope Santana is dealt in July.

Not a bad rotation but I don't see more upside than that group minus JDL. JMO.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Willihammer

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not a bad rotation but I don't see more upside than that group minus JDL. JMO.

 

Well you are admittedly down on JDL.  Which is a fair stance, there are red flags for sure.

 

But I tend to think a top 30 pitching prospect being added over Hughes/Meija is a rather sizable upgrade in upside.

[jimmer]

 

Well you are admittedly down on JDL.  Which is a fair stance, there are red flags for sure.

 

But I tend to think a top 30 pitching prospect being added over Hughes/Meija is a rather sizable upgrade in upside.

Well, perhaps top 30 is a bit of an undersell.  Sickels, at end of season, had De Leon as the #5 prospect in baseball (which included pitchers and position players). He was actually ranked as the 3rd pitching prospect.

 

Now, I'm not a big fan of Sickels but many are in here and many use him in counter arguments against other prospect listings like, say, Fangraphs.  So, it's at least worth taking into account, especially for those who really value Sickels opinion.

Edited January 14, 2017 by jimmer

[shs_59]

Reports are the Dodgers were not willing to include any of : P's Brock Stewart, Walker Buehler or obviously Yadier Alvarez as the 2nd piece.

 
IF that is true

 

that means they most certianly weren't willing to include any of Alex Verdugo, Willie Calhoun or even Chase De Jong as a 2nd piece either.

 

and we already knew that Urias, Y, Alvarez, and Cody Bellinger were off limits

 

IF that report by Heymann and co. ?  is true

 

Screw the Dodgers they don't really want Dozier in my mind

 

 

SO WE KNOW

 

the offer all long was either A. ) jose de leon straight up for Dozier

 

or B.)  De Leon and a C prospect or 2

 

they weren't even willing to give up high end C+ guys.  thats a mistake on their part big-time.

 

and no way in hell De Leon is a top 5 prospect in the game, not even top 15 he's somewhere in the 16-40 range for me.

 

[shs_59]

 

This debate is somewhat surprising to me.  Everyone agrees that the Dodgers offer of De Leon was not enough for Dozier.  Not a single person has said that they think the FO should have taken a De Leon for Dozier swap.  No one has suggested that their was an offer out there that was sufficient for the Twins that has been credibly reported.  And yet people are ripping the FO for not trading him.  

John Bonnes and 1 or 2 others have said , they'd take a Dozier for De Leon swap 1 for 1 straight up.

 

I disagree , i think at minimum it can be De Leon , Brock Stewart or De Leon and Calhoun

[shs_59]

also guys you know what Jose De Leon's comp was in 2014 and most of, if not all of 2015?

RHP Javier Vazquez (marlins , white sox, ect.)

 

remember him ?  a career #3 or #4 starter who bottomed out as a quad A guy after about 7-8 seasons.

 

he might of had 1 or 2 career years where he pitched like a #2.

 

thats what i think De Leon essentially becomes, maybe a little better career, but still

[Richie the Rally Goat]

By holding onto Dozier, you don't make a bad deal. And, aside from one poster, no one here seems to think the Twins should have taken the Dodgers deal for De Leon, although some are suggesting that the Dodgers offer may have been more than, as Steve Adams described "and junk" but without any specifics.

I would take JDL plus a couple non-prospect low A/high A talent in exchange for Dozier if that's the best offer.

 

Here's what I know

 

1) Twins need pitching

2) Free Agent market is terrible

3) 2017 will be the 7th consecutive terrible season in a row, with or without Dozier

4) With or without Dozier this team will hit home runs and score runs at league average or better.

 

It only makes sense to trade him. I'm not mad at the FO for trying to drive up the market, just frustrated with the situation.

[Cory Engelhardt]

also guys you know what Jose De Leon's comp was in 2014 and most of, if not all of 2015?

RHP Javier Vazquez (marlins , white sox, ect.)

 

remember him ?  a career #3 or #4 starter who bottomed out as a quad A guy after about 7-8 seasons.

 

he might of had 1 or 2 career years where he pitched like a #2.

 

thats what i think De Leon essentially becomes, maybe a little better career, but still

I think we forget how good Vazquez was. If De Leon has a Javier Vazquez type career, there are many who would argue that is hall of fame worthy

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/2/13761686/javier-vazquez-hof-hall-of-fame-ballot-omission-fwar-rwar-pwarp-dra

[Otto von Ballpark]

Reports are the Dodgers were not willing to include any of : P's Brock Stewart, Walker Buehler or obviously Yadier Alvarez as the 2nd piece.

 

IF that is true

 

that means they most certianly weren't willing to include any of Alex Verdugo, Willie Calhoun or even Chase De Jong as a 2nd piece either.

This is not clear at all. Are you just going by prospect ranking, and assuming everyone above Stewart was unavailable? First of all, the Dodgers may have different rankings, and second of all, they were resisting giving up Stewart with De Leon specifically because they didn't want to give up two MLB ready SP who could contribute in 2017.

 

You may ultimately be proven right, but there is no real evidence to make this conclusion now. In fact, it is not even clear if discussions progressed to the point where those names could have been included -- if the Twins were insisting on Bellinger, maybe the Dodgers never felt it was worth making their best counteroffer. Even guys they are ultimately willing to deal, I think teams tend to resist offering them toward unlikely deals because once offered, it seems to affect the players value and their leverage.

[Otto von Ballpark]

also guys you know what Jose De Leon's comp was in 2014 and most of, if not all of 2015?

 

RHP Javier Vazquez (marlins , white sox, ect.)

 

remember him ? a career #3 or #4 starter who bottomed out as a quad A guy after about 7-8 seasons.

 

he might of had 1 or 2 career years where he pitched like a #2.

 

thats what i think De Leon essentially becomes, maybe a little better career, but still

Javier Vasquez racked up 20.8 bWAR over his first 6 seasons of club control.

 

He was extended reasonably beyond that and racked up another 20.3 bWAR in the next 5 seasons.

 

He spent the bulk of his career (10 seasons, age 23-32) averaging 4.2 bWAR per season, barely indistinguishable from Dozier's average of 4.5 bWAR per season over his last 4 years.

[TheLeviathan]

I would be thrilled to get Javier Vasquez back as the centerpiece of a deal.

[ewen21]

I think not making a single trade after losing 103 games is absolutely ridiculous. I think the problem here is that Dozier is being overrated here. He isn't as good as a lot of people want think due to natural homer bias. That's all it is. I say let it not be forgotten how brutal he was the second half of 2015 and the first part of last season. Suddenly, after a few months of playing the best baseball he's ever played, he's considered a star or "the face of the franchise"?

 

I'm not buying. The Twins are trying to finagle way too much. The market has spoken and unfortunately it's not giving us exactly what we want. So what? You trade Dozier for myriad reasons:

1. Even if he does play near an all star level (and next year) he will be 32 when that contract is up. It's highly unlikely we are contenders these next two seasons. What's the benefit?

2. His value will never be greater. His marketability is based on his team friendly 2 years, his power and the fact that he's got two or three prime years left. Extend that timeline forward and his value almost automatically drops. All of those favorable factors diminish with each game plays

3. Playing Polanco out of position might compromise his development. That kid should replace Dozier.at 2B. He's ready now. I'm so sick and tired of the Twins plugging young players into different positions all the time. Let Polanco develop in his NATURAL position. Gordon will be our SS someday soon anyway. Think two years forward for Gods sake

4. Dozier is a NOW player and by the time this team is good again his moment will be over, his contract will be up, see ya

5. He's been called a leader. I'm not so sure about that. He flew south rather badly when this team was contending in 2015. I thought Dozier was being goofball in spring training last year and was supposed to be leader. His surge came long after the season was over and to me that is too little too late

 

This isn't about trading him just to trade him. I just gave a bunch of solid reasons why you do it. I'd say if you don't agree please don't mischaracterize me as someone wants to trade for the sake of making a trade. moving a very capable young player (Polanco) to his actual position. It's about selling a guy at his peak value after a 103 loss season. Quite frankly, I have no idea why Dozier wants to even remain a twin. He's been playing for a loser his entire career. That right there says something.

 

Time to turn the page on this guy. As Branch Rickey once told Ralph Kiner....I came in last with you and I came in last without you. Dozier has little to do with the young ecenucleus of 22 and 23 year old players

 

I said my piece

[jimmer]

 

I think we forget how good Vazquez was. If De Leon has a Javier Vazquez type career, there are many who would argue that is hall of fame worthy

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/2/13761686/javier-vazquez-hof-hall-of-fame-ballot-omission-fwar-rwar-pwarp-dra

Oh, I don't think WE forget how good Vazquez was, just SOME do :-)

 

In 14 seasons he had:

 

200+ IP nine times

190+ IP eleven times

Career 8 K/ 2.4BB

Career FIP of 3.91

54 WAR

 

He really only had two bad seasons.  His 1st one and his 2nd to last one.

 

Not a HOFer, but a VERY good pitcher for sure.  If De Leon is THAT guy, YES please!

Edited January 15, 2017 by jimmer

[HitInAPinch]

 

Haven't seen it mentioned in here yet but on the Fangraphs Podcast yesterday, Eno Saris states that De Leon was agreed but the second prospect was the sticking point and the Twins wouldn't come off of wanting Cody Bellinger also in return.  He then hypothesized that Willie Calhoun instead of Bellinger would seem like a suitable return. Whether the Twins took less we will see.

 

I said it about a month ago and still feel the same way, just do the DeLeon and Calhoun and be done with it.  Calhoun can hit there is no mistaking that, it's just whether he can stick at 2B or has to be moved to a less demanding position.  

That's kinda the thing with Calhoun, isn't it?  If he has the arm for 3rd, then I'd be all-in.  Just read in the Pleskoff Scouting report @Knuckleball on Calhoun:  he played 3rd in college, but has limited arm strength.  Otherwise, I think the Twins have plenty of DH types. 

 

Overall, I think I'd like to see Willie's stats after a 2nd AA season.

 

And I can see why the Twins wouldn't backoff from Bellinger.  From different websites, DeLeon is somewhere between a #2-3 to #3-4 starter.  Any report with a 3 in it, yeah I'd want more, too.   

 

 

[drjim]

Oh, I don't think WE forget how good Vazquez was, just SOME do :-)

 

In 14 seasons he had:

 

200+ IP nine times

190+ IP eleven times

Career 8 K/ 2.4BB

Career FIP of 3.91

54 WAR

 

He really only had two bad seasons. His 1st one and his 2nd to last one.

 

Not a HOFer, but a VERY good pitcher for sure. If De Leon is THAT guy, YES please!

Yes indeed.

[IndianaTwin]

There are plenty of reasons to trade Dozier. I won't summarize, but they seem to center around "We're bad, and his value will never be higher."

 

There are at least a few reasons not to trade Dozier. These are harder to summarize, but the sentiment seems to be, "We're not saying we can't trade Dozier, but we need to get more than what seems to be on the table."

 

I have another possible reason for not trading Dozier that I'm not sure has been discussed much, at least not in these terms. I'll get at it by asking a question: "What is the best pattern for a new President/GM?"

 

When I'm new in a job, the first thing I want to do (other than find the best local lunch spots; oh, and "Where's the crapper?") is get a really good handle on the situation. If my boss (or my first hire, depending on whether we're thinking of Falvey or Levine) is also new, I especially want to get a handle on the situation before making any major changes.

 

Now, I know that it's easy to say that getting a handle on our current situation is saying, "We suck." More specifically, "Our pitching sucks."

 

But that doesn't seem complete enough for what I'd want. I'd want to know the degree of suckitude at each position, from our best player to our 100th, from our big-league manager to our lowest-level scout. I want to know which asset has potential to be great and which has the likelihood of continued suckitude.

 

And that takes time. Thus my question above. The only example I looked at was The Mighty Theo (hereafter, TMT), who was signed in October 2011. Here's what appears to be the extent of TMT's first offseason:

• Signed Reed Johnson as a free agent.
• Traded Sean Marshall for two guys I don't remember and Travis Wood.
• Traded Andrew Cashner and a nobody for Anthony Rizzo and a nobody.
• Signed Paul Maholm. 

That's three moves that classify as "tinkering" to me, plus hitting the jackpot with Rizzo. But even Rizzo has a pretty big asterisk. TMT had drafted him with the Red Sox and had a very good handle on what he was getting. TMT had a much better handle on what he was getting in Rizzo than FalVine would have in trading for DeLeon or probably anyone else in the Dodger's system.

 

In general, TMT's moves didn't begin in earnest until mid-2012 (the draft, primarily, followed by a couple deadline deals). In his first offseason, the only potential assets he traded away were a combined 86.1 previous-season innings from Marshall and Cashner. He seemed to take a much more patient approach than we are suggesting in trading Dozier.

 

So, back to my first question: What's the best pattern for a new President/GM? I'll show my bias toward patience by asking another honest question. Can anyone think of someone who came in as a GM (particularly a first-time GM) and made a good move in trading away the team's best player within three (or even five) months?

 

Edited January 15, 2017 by IndianaTwin

[Nick Nelson]

^^ Great comment! Very good questions. 

[Doomtints]

 

1) Twins need pitching
2) Free Agent market is terrible
3) 2017 will be the 7th consecutive terrible season in a row, with or without Dozier
4) With or without Dozier this team will hit home runs and score runs at league average or better.
 

 

You laid this out perfectly. 

[tobi0040]

I would have hoped an interview question was something to the effect of "we are a long ways off, what is your plan to right the ship"

 

And I hope the most impressive answer involved a detailed blueprint and some reasonable time frame that goes out longer than Dozier's current contract. I also hope the best answer involved getting younger and maximizing the value of veterans via trade, rather than keeping guys like Dozier.

[Physics Guy]

 

I think we forget how good Vazquez was. If De Leon has a Javier Vazquez type career, there are many who would argue that is hall of fame worthy

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/2/13761686/javier-vazquez-hof-hall-of-fame-ballot-omission-fwar-rwar-pwarp-dra

Considering how much I see people arguing semantics in these forums, I'll throw out one as well.    I would change the word "many" in the last sentence to "some".    Vazquez was good, but I wouldn't call him HOF worthy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So, back to my first question: What's the best pattern for a new President/GM? I'll show my bias toward patience by asking another honest question. Can anyone think of someone who came in as a GM (particularly a first-time GM) and made a good move in trading away the team's best player within three (or even five) months?

 

Copollela made a helluva move with Shelby Miller.  You could probabyl throw the Heyward and Upton deals on there too.  Hell, he's got quite a few.  We could probably come up with more if I felt like googling the hell out of every GM's history.

 

Unfortunately, not all situations call for the same actions.  Not all GMs walk into the same situations or have the same choices in front of them.  I'm not sure a "one size fits all" pattern fits for that reason.  A smart front office needs to be able to read their situation, their assets, their needs, and make good decisions.  One of my biggest issues with Ryan was that he was too much of a "one size fits all" pattern sort of guy.  

 

That said, I agree with your points about the new FO needing to be careful establishing themselves.  At the same time, the nature of this asset and our starting pitching needs necessitate action now.  At least on this one front.

Edited January 15, 2017 by TheLeviathan