Article: Impasse

[gunnarthor]

 

I think the delta, for many of us, is that I think 2017 is lost, and some people think they can go from 59 wins to competing....I see no chance of that as realistic at all. I'd rather gamble on 2018 and beyond, than next year. That's the impasse between me and chief, for example.

Again, I think you're putting words in people's mouth when they didn't say it.  I've seen no one suggest that the Twins will compete in 2017.  And a way to make sure you stay bad is to trade away your best players in bad deals. 

[gunnarthor]

 

De Leon is, I'd wager, the Twins 2nd or 3rd best starter next year....pitching like a number three. I'd rather have a number 3 pitcher for 6 years, than 2 years of Dozier. I think he actually has a chance to make them better next year, given that Polanco is here and can play 2B (thought not hit like Dozier, obviously).

If you have that kind of confidence in De Leon, you should also have it in Berrios.

[USAFChief]

 

I would like this package. Dodgers have a high view of Buehler though. Have seen many reports saying he is not available in a trade or that they hold him and Alvarez in higher regard than De Leon.

That, to me, is one of the key issues here.

 

I suspect the reason the Dodgers would be willing to part with De Leon is because ultimately they don't view him as particularly valuable.  They're trying to max out his value while they still can.  

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Interestingly enough, Buehler is not on BA's Top 10, but I would put him 4th on my personal want list (Bellinger - De Leon - Alvarez) in a trade.

Yeah, I'd have him higher too but he is recovering from an injury.  Callis at mlbpipeline just had a prospect inbox where he said Buehler is his pick for best break out from injury, or something like that.  Callis is pretty high on Buehler.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Again, I think you're putting words in people's mouth when they didn't say it.  I've seen no one suggest that the Twins will compete in 2017.  And a way to make sure you stay bad is to trade away your best players in bad deals. 

 

I'm pretty sure I see people saying they can compete, and that they should not give up on 2017.....I, otoh, have given up on 2017. Or does "don't give up on 2017" not mean people think they can be good.

 

I've also said, repeatedly, I think they could be better with De Leon and no Dozier, than Dozier and no De Leon. I don't know that, but it could be true.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you have that kind of confidence in De Leon, you should also have it in Berrios.

 

Hence "2nd or 3rd best" pitcher.....

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm pretty sure I see people saying they can compete, and that they should not give up on 2017.....I, otoh, have given up on 2017. Or does "don't give up on 2017" not mean people think they can be good.

 

I've also said, repeatedly, I think they could be better with De Leon and no Dozier, than Dozier and no De Leon. I don't know that, but it could be true.

Don't give up on 2017 doesn't mean they'd be competing for a playoff spot. We're not that 2012 Astros.  We have the pieces in place for the most part.  They just need to play.  

[gunnarthor]

 

That, to me, is one of the key issues here.

 

I suspect the reason the Dodgers would be willing to part with De Leon is because ultimately they don't view him as particularly valuable.  They're trying to max out his value while they still can.  

Yeah, maybe.  I'm sure they knew that they'd have to give up something of value but I am a little surprised about the reports.  De Leon is ok but De Leon and Stewart is a deal breaker?  So maybe there's something to your theory.  In any event, it looks like the Dodgers will move onto Kinsler or Forsythe.  I wonder what rumors we will hear about those dealings.  

[drjim]

 

That, to me, is one of the key issues here.

 

I suspect the reason the Dodgers would be willing to part with De Leon is because ultimately they don't view him as particularly valuable.  They're trying to max out his value while they still can.  

 

Maybe, but I'd be a little more charitable to the Dodgers. I think they see him as a piece that is nice to have, but does lack an elite ceiling and is expendable within the organization. And they do have to give something up to get someone as quality as Dozier.

 

I like De Leon, think he is an acceptable centerpiece, but is not enough on his own.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't really understand why the Twins and Dodgers would not both be amenable to a De Leon + Buehler package. Seems like such a logical compromise to me. Maybe that's where the two sides eventually meet in the middle, if they ever do. 

 

It would make a lot of sense.

 

Unless the Dodgers just refuse to pay that much for a guy based on a career year.  I know this is a Twins forum, but if the situation were reversed - what would we say if we analyzed Brian Dozier?  Would we pay a Top 25 prospect and another in the Top 100?  

 

Maybe we'll get that, but the notion that it's a "bad deal" if it's anything less strikes me as a fundamental misread of the value of Brian Dozier.  A misread we may later regret.

Edited January 13, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

A one-for-one deal with Dozier and DeLeon would have been a ridiculous move for the Twins to make. An established All-Star for a single Dodger prospect arm not named Julio Urias would have been a crazy move to make.

 

"Established All-Star"?  Since when?  A single All Star appearance (2 seasons ago mind you) does not establish anything.  Is Edwardo Nunez an established All Star?  How about Ron Coomer?  Or Kurt Suzuki.  Exactly as many All Star appearances as Brian Dozier. 

[Thrylos]

 

the Twins with De Leon and minus Dozier would be worse than the Twins with Dozier and no De Leon.

 

Fact:  The Twins with Dozier lost 103 games.  How worse can they be?

[Vanimal46]

 

That, to me, is one of the key issues here.

 

I suspect the reason the Dodgers would be willing to part with De Leon is because ultimately they don't view him as particularly valuable.  They're trying to max out his value while they still can.  

I don't buy it. They know Dozier is a valued commodity, and the Twins aren't going to accept a return for one of their available MLB starters. They offered what's thought to be their top pitching prospect. 

[gunnarthor]

 

It would make a lot of sense.

 

Unless the Dodgers just refuse to pay that much for a guy based on a career year.  I know this is a Twins forum, but if the situation were reversed - what would we say if we analyzed Brian Dozier?  Would we pay a Top 25 prospect and another in the Top 100?  

 

Maybe we'll get that, but the notion that it's a "bad deal" if it's anything less strikes me as a fundamental misread of the value of Brian Dozier.  A misread we may later regret.

I don't know.  I remember in 06 the Twins wanted Soriano and offered Garza, Baker and another prospect to Washington.  On the other hand, considering the angst of trading Ramos and Hu, I suspect the we'd probably offer Romero and leave it at that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm pretty sure I see people saying they can compete, and that they should not give up on 2017.....I, otoh, have given up on 2017. Or does "don't give up on 2017" not mean people think they can be good.

Can they compete? Sure. Will they compete? Not likely, but take the field and see what happens.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know.  I remember in 06 the Twins wanted Soriano and offered Garza, Baker and another prospect to Washington.  On the other hand, considering the angst of trading Ramos and Hu, I suspect the we'd probably offer Romero and leave it at that.

 

My understanding is that we were asked for Garza/Baker and Kubel and we rebuffed it.  Maybe my recollection is wrong.  

 

Either way, I think you at least see my point - given what Dozer is (a guy with one elite season and a lot of inconsistency) we might want to temper our expectations a bit.  If the reverse was true, we'd laugh at the very idea of being asked for Bellinger and Deleon.  We'd block the damn number from calling us back we'd be so insulted at the idea.

 

So yeah, it needs to hurt the Dodgers a bit more IMO, but probably not much more.  

[Twins33]

I know this is a Twins forum, but if the situation were reversed - what would we say if we analyzed Brian Dozier?  Would we pay a Top 25 prospect and another in the Top 100?

id do Berrios and Jay and a throw in. Berrios was #20 and Jay was 43 at midseason rankings for BA.

 

That's with pretending that our pitching in the majors and minors is as strong as theirs, of course. And pretending that Polanco doesn't exist.

[TheLeviathan]

 

id do Berrios and Jay and a throw in. Berrios was #20 and Jay was 43 at midseason rankings for BA.

That's with pretending that our pitching in the majors and minors is as strong as theirs, of course. And pretending that Polanco doesn't exist.

 

Then you and I need to talk about buy low and sell high,  

 

If I'm the Dodgers, I'd rather give Kinsler a contract extension than overpay for Dozier on the chance 2016 wasn't a fluke. 

[mikelink45]

Make it Two - if DeLeon has the potential that seems to be indicated then Dozier is expendable.  42 home runs meant 103 losses.  Losing him might have meant 106 if 4 WAR is correct and his replacement would not have helped win any game.  Big deal.  DeLeon is a pitcher and pitching wins games more than batting.   I would do it straight up.  We really cannot lose in this even if we eventually seen Dozier in the HOF. 

[Twins33]

Then you and I need to talk about buy low and sell high,  

 

If I'm the Dodgers, I'd rather give Kinsler a contract extension than overpay for Dozier on the chance 2016 wasn't a fluke.

 

i don't really consider that an overpay. Berrios and DeLeon are equivalent (though personally I'd take DeLeon over Berrios, if we ignore the injury) and Jay we don't know enough about yet to say "too much." If we had a Urias, Alvarez, Stewart and Buehler in the system I wouldn't be extremely upset to do that deal. It would hurt a little maybe but I'd still have about three guys I value way more.

[TheLeviathan]

 

i don't really consider that an overpay. Berrios and DeLeon are equivalent (though personally I'd take DeLeon over Berrios, if we ignore the injury) and Jay we don't know enough about yet to say "too much." If we had a Urias, Alvarez, Stewart and Buehler in the system I wouldn't be extremely upset to do that deal. It would hurt a little maybe but I'd still have about three guys I value way more.

 

Fair point.  If I was going to deal them from a position of depth I'd just choose a different target than Dozier.  One with more of a track record.

[Twins33]

Fair point.  If I was going to deal them from a position of depth I'd just choose a different target than Dozier.  One with more of a track record.

That makes sense. If I were the Dodgers (or the Twins in your hypothetical) I'd want Kinsler over Dozier, but that extension thing scares me away.

[tobi0040]

I would trade Dozier and Ervin, for young pitching. They don't have to be moved together.

 

I view everything through the lens of I don't want to maybe win 70-75 games. Have a bold game plan and execute it. I don't see a contending blueprint with Dozier in 2017 or 2018. Or one with him under a GM huge deal after that.

[tobi0040]

Here would be my question for those who would rather keep Dozier over taking DeLeon. An honest question.

 

What is the path forward to build a rotation worthy of contention? And what time frame are we working on? We had a 5.08 ERA last year with a good year out of Ervin (3.38 ERA). DeLeon is a piece and IMO Dozier is the only non Sano/Buxton/Kepler asset that we may have to bring back quality young pitching.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Here would be my question for those who would rather keep Dozier over taking DeLeon. An honest question.

What is the path forward to build a rotation worthy of contention? And what time frame are we working on? We had a 5.08 ERA last year with a good year out of Ervin (3.38 ERA). DeLeon is a piece and IMO Dozier is the only non Sano/Buxton/Kepler asset that we may have to bring back quality young pitching.

 

I would also like to hear this.  Mostly I seem to recall hearing "they have to be creative" which is, pretty much, a non-answer.

 

I also would expect it to be pretty low risk (somehow) since that also appears to be a criticism.

[D.C Twins]

We are rightfully concerned that Dozier my lose value during the season. But, I think we stand to gain A LOT more information about JDL than they stand to learn about Dozier during the first half of the season...which could alleviate some concerns about a trade-center piece with a potential "pre-existing condition." 

 

Also, the risk of waiting is worth the benefit that an actual competitive market may manifest sometime over the next year to drive up demand. And we have more time than they do. Even with young player progression, this team is not going to threaten anyone in 2017. (not going anywhere for a while.....)

[tobi0040]

We are rightfully concerned that Dozier my lose value during the season. But, I think we stand to gain A LOT more information about JDL than they stand to learn about Dozier during the first half of the season...which could alleviate some concerns about a trade-center piece with a potential "pre-existing condition."

 

Also, the risk of waiting is worth the benefit that an actual competitive market may manifest sometime over the next year to drive up demand. And we have more time than they do. Even with young player progression, this team is not going to threaten anyone in 2017. (not going anywhere for a while.....)

If the deal doesn't happen now I don't think it happens. It would seem pretty rare for a blockbuster type discussion to happen and then the same trade happen 6 months later.

[D.C Twins]

 

If the deal doesn't happen now I don't think it happens. It would seem pretty rare for a blockbuster type discussion to happen and then the same trade happen 6 months later.

Agreed....New data and circumstance would change the construct (and/or desire depending on the level of back room rancor)  for any future LA deal. Let's hope for a  few other GMs sitting on increasingly warmer seats in the same division/league to come sniffing mid-season.   

[darin617]

 

Then you and I need to talk about buy low and sell high,

 

If I'm the Dodgers, I'd rather give Kinsler a contract extension than overpay for Dozier on the chance 2016 wasn't a fluke. 

 

I really don't think Detroit would want to move Kinsler unless they got an insanely huge offer for him. They have a solid team and will push Cleveland hard for the AL Central this upcoming season. As well as the fact they don't have a suitable in house replacement for him in their system.

 

Side note San Diego just gave former Twin Yangervis Solarte a 2 year deal today. So that leaves the Dodgers with 2 players to choose from if they decide to trade for a 2b. Brian Dozier or Logan Forsythe. Dozier has put up solid power numbers for a 2b for 4 years now and Logan Forsythe just the last 2 seasons.

 

The Dodgers want to play the angle Dozier is from a small market and may not be able to handle a large market. What would happen to a player from Tampa who plays in front of a 15K fans on a good day at home. What a joke.

 

Andrew Friedman will try to be all cool and try to make the Twins sweat waiting for his call but I feel he will ultimately cave and try to start it back up on Wednesday. He has 2 weeks until they have Dodger FanFest and would like to have it resolved. 

 

By the way, the Dodgers FanFest is free for all fans and don't charge unlike our Twins. So another reason a deal gets done, the Dodgers like to please their fans.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

The Dodgers want to play the angle Dozier is from a small market and may not be able to handle a large market. What would happen to a player from Tampa who plays in front of a 15K fans on a good day at home. What a joke.

 

If I'm them I am much more concerned about if he transitions well to the NL.  Many hitters have seemed to struggle for a year adjusting to new parks and pitchers.