Article: Impasse

[Vanimal46]

 

Haven't seen it mentioned in here yet but on the Fangraphs Podcast yesterday, Eno Saris states that De Leon was agreed but the second prospect was the sticking point and the Twins wouldn't come off of wanting Cody Bellinger also in return.  He then hypothesized that Willie Calhoun instead of Bellinger would seem like a suitable return. Whether the Twins took less we will see.

 

I said it about a month ago and still feel the same way, just do the DeLeon and Calhoun and be done with it.  Calhoun can hit there is no mistaking that, it's just whether he can stick at 2B or has to be moved to a less demanding position.  

I don't know how plugged in Eno is with the Dodgers or Twins, but his take makes a hell of a lot more sense than the constant reports of 1:1 swap between De Leon and Dozier.

[KirbyDome89]

 

No, that is an assumption. De Leon isn't some magic pill, he still has a high probability of busting. That's why the Twins would be doing themselves a disservice by not hedging their bets with additional pieces with a reasonable chance of being useful players.

Sure its an assumption, but don't think its a leap to say that adding one of the best pitching prospects in baseball to one of the worst starting rotations will help. I think that is a safer assumption than saying that holding onto Dozier is the right move because he'll continue his career tear, the 2B market will swing in his favor, and his value is at its lowest.

 

I never said I wouldn't like other players back alongside JDL, but if this is the best offer they're going to get then its something that needs to be seriously considered. Holding onto Dozier does this team no good right now. 

 

[jimmer]

I don't know how plugged in Eno is with the Dodgers or Twins, but his take makes a hell of a lot more sense than the constant reports of 1:1 swap between De Leon and Dozier.

this

[wsnydes]

 

"If Vegas were to put the odds of the Twins winning 72.5 games in 2017, what would people take? I said between 70 and 75."

Given what we know right now, pre-trades, signings, etc. that could happen before opening day, I'd bet confidently on the under. 

I think that's a pretty good o/u number.  I'd also take the under and feel pretty good about my odds.  That being said, it's a pretty disheartening realization even for somebody that feels that's where this team is still at.

Edited January 13, 2017 by wsnydes

[TheLeviathan]

So now a reputable source is saying the Twins want DeLeon and Bellinger huh?

 

That makes way more sense than this 1:1 crap. Also puts these conversations in a different light if true.

[TheLeviathan]

"If Vegas were to put the odds of the Twins winning 72.5 games in 2017, what would people take? I said between 70 and 75."

Given what we know right now, pre-trades, signings, etc. that could happen before opening day, I'd bet confidently on the under.

 

When that number comes out I'm on my way, life savings in hand, to bet the #/!$ out of that under.

[Nick Nelson]

 

So now a reputable source is saying the Twins want DeLeon and Bellinger huh?

That makes way more sense than this 1:1 crap. Also puts these conversations in a different light if true.

This isn't a new development. Local reporters were mentioning Bellinger's name very early on, suggesting the Twins viewed him as a potential Mauer successor. Jon Heyman wrote this in mid-December:

 

"The Twins at one point sought Dodgers’ top minor-league prospect Cody Bellinger, the slick-fielding first baseman, but those efforts apparently were rebuffed."

[gunnarthor]

You bet the over.  As those of us who were happily following the 2015 Twins know, the pessimists were always reminding us that the Twins weren't good and used base runs as their go-to source.  Well, base runs says that last years Twins were a 71 win team.  

[TheLeviathan]

This isn't a new development. Local reporters were mentioning Bellinger's name very early on, suggesting the Twins viewed him as a potential Mauer successor. Jon Heyman wrote this in mid-December:

 

"The Twins at one point sought Dodgers’ top minor-league prospect Cody Bellinger, the slick-fielding first baseman, but those efforts apparently were rebuffed."

Maybe we never really moved past this point.

[Loosey]

 

"If Vegas were to put the odds of the Twins winning 72.5 games in 2017, what would people take? I said between 70 and 75."

Given what we know right now, pre-trades, signings, etc. that could happen before opening day, I'd bet confidently on the under. 

If I place bets with Minnesota sports team, I always bet against them.  That way when they lose I can be happy I won money and when they win, the happiness of the win offsets by pain of losing money.  My own emotional betting hedge.

[gunnarthor]

 

If I place bets with Minnesota sports team, I always bet against them.  That way when they lose I can be happy I won money and when they win, the happiness of the win offsets by pain of losing money.  My own emotional betting hedge.

I dunno.  Losing to the Packers still killed me even when Rodgers was my fantasy football QB.  (That I bench Cobb just added to my pain).  

[tobi0040]

I think you have to throw the expected return out the window. Every team has known Dozier was on the market and it looks like the market says the best offer is a top 25 arm, controlled for 6-7 years.

 

So now you have to ask, what is the best option?

 

I don't think we have the staff to compete while we still have Dozier, so you take the best offer you have and move on. This move helps the 2019 team more than Dozier would making $18m that year with a multi year commitment.

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't think we have the staff to compete while we still have Dozier, so you take the best offer you have and move on. This move helps the 2019 team more than Dozier would making $18m that year with a multi year commitment.

I think you stated your opinion well.  I just think that your ideas - screw the next two years and take what they give us - is a really bad one.  Fortunately, the FO seems to agree and is holding out for a better return.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Twins asked for JDL and Bellinger, I say no if I'm the Dodgers. That's not realistic for 2 years of Dozier. 4 years? Sure, 2 years? No way.

[gunnarthor]

 

If the Twins asked for JDL and Bellinger, I say no if I'm the Dodgers. That's not realistic for 2 years of Dozier. 4 years? Sure, 2 years? No way.

Sure.  It makes sense that Bellinger would be on a Twins ask list.  But the bigger issue is what should the Twins receive.  From all these reports, the Dodgers sure had a big list of people who weren't going to be included.  Bellinger, Alvarez, Stewart, Verdugo, Urias, Buehler, Lux.  There's not a lot to love if you take all those guys away. Sheffield is a reliever.  Calhoun is a DH (if the Twins think he can play third, that's a different thing).  Smith and Diaz are at A ball.  Sborz?  De Jong?  

[Nick Nelson]

 

Maybe we never really moved past this point.

Wouldn't shock me. Noteworthy: BA released its Top 10 Dodgers prospects today.

 

#1 on the list: Bellinger. Behind him, Alvarez. THEN De Leon.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects/#Y8HVp9Ct12FqYPE8.97

[Squirrel]

 

If the Twins asked for JDL and Bellinger, I say no if I'm the Dodgers. That's not realistic for 2 years of Dozier. 4 years? Sure, 2 years? No way.

I'd say no, too, but that's part of negotiation. What did the Dodgers come back with then? JDL and what? Who? From what we're hearing that if it was something it wasn't anything of real consequence. So, the Twins say no. If the Dodgers aren't going to offer up much beyond the one (and I didn't say only that one), you walk. Not because you think you'll get more later, but because it's not a good deal, and if you took it you'd be making a deal just to make a deal. One unproven player doesn't make us better enough this coming year or the next.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd say no, too, but that's part of negotiation. What did the Dodgers come back with then? JDL and what? Who? From what we're hearing that if it was something it wasn't anything of real consequence. So, the Twins say no. If the Dodgers aren't going to offer up much beyond the one (and I didn't say only that one), you walk. Not because you think you'll get more later, but because it's not a good deal, and if you took it you'd be making a deal just to make a deal. One unproven player doesn't make us better enough this coming year or the next.

 

That last sentence doesn't make sense. Three unproven players don't make them "better enough" either. It isn't about being "better enough to compete", it is about being better over time. 

 

I don't get why people keep saying "getting 1 SP won't fix this team, so don't trade Dozier"......by that logic, you don't sign 1 FA ever either, you never make a trade if you are bad, you just stand still.....this isn't about fixing things with one trade, this is about starting to fix things. Every journey starts with one step, you don't not take that 1 step because it takes thousands to get where you are going. 

 

Unless I misunderstood your point, but people keep typing that, year after year "doing X won't fix everything, so don't do X". Well, if you keep passing on improving, you kind of never improve.

[Nick Nelson]

I don't really understand why the Twins and Dodgers would not both be amenable to a De Leon + Buehler package. Seems like such a logical compromise to me. Maybe that's where the two sides eventually meet in the middle, if they ever do. 

[gunnarthor]

 

That last sentence doesn't make sense. Three unproven players don't make them "better enough" either. It isn't about being "better enough to compete", it is about being better over time. 

 

I don't get why people keep saying "getting 1 SP won't fix this team, so don't trade Dozier"......by that logic, you don't sign 1 FA ever either, you never make a trade if you are bad, you just stand still.....this isn't about fixing things with one trade, this is about starting to fix things. Every journey starts with one step, you don't not take that 1 step because it takes thousands to get where you are going. 

 

Unless I misunderstood your point, but people keep typing that, year after year "doing X won't fix everything, so don't do X". Well, if you keep passing on improving, you kind of never improve.

I think you're misrepresenting - or taking out of context - most people's views to create these arguments.  Most of us are ok with trading Dozier but only on the right deal.  Chitown was pretty clearly stating that a De Leon package wasn't sufficient for the cost of Dozier.  And he's right, the Twins with De Leon and minus Dozier would be worse than the Twins with Dozier and no De Leon.

[USAFChief]

 

That last sentence doesn't make sense. Three unproven players don't make them "better enough" either. It isn't about being "better enough to compete", it is about being better over time. 

 

I don't get why people keep saying "getting 1 SP won't fix this team, so don't trade Dozier"......by that logic, you don't sign 1 FA ever either, you never make a trade if you are bad, you just stand still.....this isn't about fixing things with one trade, this is about starting to fix things. Every journey starts with one step, you don't not take that 1 step because it takes thousands to get where you are going. 

 

Unless I misunderstood your point, but people keep typing that, year after year "doing X won't fix everything, so don't do X". Well, if you keep passing on improving, you kind of never improve.

I think it makes all the sense in the world.

 

Adding a free agent, for example, costs only money.

 

Adding a starter by trading your best player costs your best player.  And in this specific case, they aren't even adding a starter, they're adding the potential for one starter.  

 

Everyone wants the Twins to get better.  Some of us just think if you're trading away your best player, there aught to be a real chance your team is better, and soon.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Wouldn't shock me. Noteworthy: BA released its Top 10 Dodgers prospects today.

 

#1 on the list: Bellinger. Behind him, Alvarez. THEN De Leon.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects/#Y8HVp9Ct12FqYPE8.97

On De Leon:

"On the pitching side, righthander Jose De Leon must prove he can handle a starter’s workload after running into durability issues the last two seasons—but he has mid-rotation starter potential."  

 

Both fangraphs and BA have highlighted his durability while putting his upside at the mid-rotation.  Not a future ace.  This isn't a top 10 SP prospect.  He's a fine prospect but he's not Berrios.  He's certainly not Giolito.

Edited January 13, 2017 by gunnarthor

[Mike Sixel]

De Leon is, I'd wager, the Twins 2nd or 3rd best starter next year....pitching like a number three. I'd rather have a number 3 pitcher for 6 years, than 2 years of Dozier. I think he actually has a chance to make them better next year, given that Polanco is here and can play 2B (thought not hit like Dozier, obviously).

[Mike Sixel]

 

On De Leon:

"On the pitching side, righthander Jose De Leon must prove he can handle a starter’s workload after running into durability issues the last two seasons—but he has mid-rotation starter potential."  

 

Both fangraphs and BA have highlighted his durability while putting his upside at the mid-rotation.  Not a future ace.  This isn't a top 10 SP prospect.  He's a fine prospect but he's not Berrios.  He's certainly not Giolito.

 

Uh, most of them have Berrios as a mid rotation starter also, not sure what that line means.....

[Steve Lein]

 

I don't really understand why the Twins and Dodgers would not both be amenable to a De Leon + Buehler package. Seems like such a logical compromise to me. Maybe that's where the two sides eventually meet in the middle, if they ever do. 

 

I would like this package. Dodgers have a high view of Buehler though. Have seen many reports saying he is not available in a trade or that they hold him and Alvarez in higher regard than De Leon.

[drjim]

 

I don't really understand why the Twins and Dodgers would not both be amenable to a De Leon + Buehler package. Seems like such a logical compromise to me. Maybe that's where the two sides eventually meet in the middle, if they ever do. 

 This makes sense to me too.

[drjim]

 

De Leon is, I'd wager, the Twins 2nd or 3rd best starter next year....pitching like a number three. I'd rather have a number 3 pitcher for 6 years, than 2 years of Dozier. I think he actually has a chance to make them better next year, given that Polanco is here and can play 2B (thought not hit like Dozier, obviously).

 

I think this is true, but it is probably a less than 50% chance De Leon is a #3 quality for 6 years. Like any pitcher there is such a high probability of injury or just flaming out (though, to be fair, some chance that he is a really good #2). On the other hand, it is a near 100% chance that Dozier is a good to really good to near elite 2b for those 2 years.

 

That would be a tough wager. De Leon probably wouldn't make 20 starts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sorry but I'm not bothered if the Twins are characterizing these offers as 1:1 offers.

 

Dozier for De Leon, Sheffield, and some low C prospect of our choice? I would call that 1:1. Sheffield is a guy with red flags who is not on track to debut in MLB for at least three more seasons-- as a reliever. Sheffield is not insurance against De Leon not working out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think this is true, but it is probably a less than 50% chance De Leon is a #3 quality for 6 years. Like any pitcher there is such a high probability of injury or just flaming out (though, to be fair, some chance that he is a really good #2). On the other hand, it is a near 100% chance that Dozier is a good to really good to near elite 2b for those 2 years.

 

That would be a tough wager. De Leon probably wouldn't make 20 starts.

 

I think the delta, for many of us, is that I think 2017 is lost, and some people think they can go from 59 wins to competing....I see no chance of that as realistic at all. I'd rather gamble on 2018 and beyond, than next year. That's the impasse between me and chief, for example.

Edited January 13, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[drjim]

Interestingly enough, Buehler is not on BA's Top 10, but I would put him 4th on my personal want list (Bellinger - De Leon - Alvarez) in a trade.