Article: Impasse

[gunnarthor]

 

Dozier's going to have to put up Barry Bonds numbers for the next three years if we're going to win games without pitching. 

Without doing anything, the Twins will get at least a quarter of their starts next year from people that didn't to it this year.  Nolasco, Meyer, Dean, Albers and Milone combined for 45 starts, 282ip a 5.56 era and -1.2 WAR.  They are all gone. If Molitor was smart (a big if, I know), Duffey wouldn't get 26 starts (-1.7 WAR) and May would.  Berrios shouldn't be -1.6 WAR bad.

 

So a rotation of Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Berrios and May/Hughes/Mejia is already better even without doing anything else.  And if the Twins wanted to add a back end starter, they don't need to trade Dozier, they could sign Hammel or Tyson Ross.  Moving Dozier for De Leon (admittedly, I'm the low man on him) is a waste of a resource.  

[tobi0040]

Here is why I would trade Dozier for DeLeon straight up:

 

Keeping Dozier means we either get Dozier for 2 years that will be meaningless because our pitching staff is a ways off

 

Or Extending Dozier, probably for around $100 million while he is 30-36 or so.

 

Neither one of those seems like a good option to me. We can be upset that we didn't get what we thought, but those are the two options. Now we could move him at the deadline, but he could decline and even if he doesn't I don't see how 1 year and two months of a good player will be worth more than two.

[Willihammer]

they can also keep Dozier, then offer him a QO and take the comp pick(s) after he's done.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

How did not trading Perkins or Plouffe work out? Everyone happy on not taking 50 cents on the dollar for Plouffe last year? Or keeping Perkins around because he was cheap?

By this logic, the Twins should trade everyone no matter the return.  There was no market for Plouffe, just like there was no market for Dozier.  And yes, I was ok with keeping Perkins.  If he had stayed healthy in 2015 we probably make the playoffs.  That's the risk with pitchers but it was the right risk.

 

There is no reason for the Twins to tank 2017 or not to care about it.  We might be a 75 win team, we might be a 81 win team.  We won't be a playoff team.  That doesn't mean you throw out everything that's not bolted down.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, that's not the route the Astros or Cubs or Phillies are taking....or the White Sox. All of whom have managed to rebuild faster than this team has. Not, imo, a coincidence. Keeping veterans around to win 78 games and not 71 games is not good strategy, imo.

[TheLeviathan]

We should have dumped Plouffe for anything. Waiting for a sweetheart deal is as big a mistake as anything.

[Steve Lein]

"Baseball teams, in general, seem to be losing their thirst for power. It's the name of Dozier's game, but the home run doesn't carry the same appeal it once did."

 

I don't think this necessarily is it. A quick glance back at the history of player's receiving qualifying offers shows a lot of sluggers.

 

It's not as appealing to sign these guys because of the cost of doing so. And I'm not talking about the money, I'm talking about the draft pick. With the picks that are lost basically determining a good chunk of a teams draft budget, if a team is going to sign that player, they absolutely aren't going to invest as much money in the player. Edwin Encarnacion demonstrates that pretty well.

 

I would expect players to start accepting their Qualifying offer after how this offseason has gone. They won't get paid like they should on the open market until they don't have that anchor tied to them.

[TheLeviathan]

Prior to the offseason a top 50 prospect was the ideal centerpiece and now that we have that (top 25 even!) we bemoan it as not enough. And we heap on top of that the weird (and rampant) belief that Dozier's value will endure and that some mythical better deal awaits us.

 

Don't like DeLeon? Alright, I get it, shoulDer injuries are scary. But he is a near ready, top 30 prospect. Who is going to top that? Because if you can't actually identify them, we should drop the "better deal in the next year" talk and get real.

Edited January 13, 2017 by TheLeviathan

[gunnarthor]

 

Well, that's not the route the Astros or Cubs or Phillies are taking....or the White Sox. All of whom have managed to rebuild faster than this team has. Not, imo, a coincidence. Keeping veterans around to win 78 games and not 71 games is not good strategy, imo.

The Cubs spent their way out of the cellar.  The Astros had 6 losing seasons in a row - three worse than our worse year - and have topped out at 86 wins two years ago.  The White Sox are the very definition of a team constantly winning 71-79 games, having done so in 6 of the last 9 years with two winning seasons (2010 and 2012) and a disaster year mixed in.  The Phillies have had four straight losing seasons.  They don't seem out of the rebuild yet.  

 

The Twins have a very strong offensive nucleus in place that just needs experience.  There's no reason to think the Twins can't be like the 2001 Twins or the 2014 Astros.  They have a lot of good pieces that should come together.

[gunnarthor]

 

Don't like DeLeon? Alright, I get it, shoulDer injuries are scary. But he is a near ready, top 30 prospect. Who is going to top that? Because if you can't actually identify them, we should drop the "better deal in the next year" talk and get real.

I'm not too sure how realistic their interest was but I liked the idea of Weaver and Flaherty from St Louis or Newcomb from Atlanta over De Leon.  None of those pitchers had De Leon's ceiling but I trusted their floors a lot more.  If I thought De Leon would need TJ surgery and come back, that's one thing.  But shoulder soreness is such a red flag for me that I'd probably walk away from that guy. 

[TheLeviathan]

Why are we aiming for high floors over high ceilings? Have we still not learned our lesson?

[tobi0040]

I think we have reason to heavily doubt this team will be like the 2001 Twins. We had a team ERA of 5.08 last year. Anyone optimistic about Berrios, that is great but he at best will offset the 3.38 ERA that 34 year old Ervin had last year.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why are we aiming for high floors over high ceilings? Have we still not learned our lesson?

Those guys still have high ceilings.  

[Mike Sixel]

I left the Braves off my list of teams that traded for prospects and got more and got better.....so that's another one.

 

As for the WS, they didn't figure it out until this year. They are 1 year into their trying to rebuild, aren't they?

[gunnarthor]

 

I think we have reason to heavily doubt this team will be like the 2001 Twins. We had a team ERA of 5.08 last year. Anyone optimistic about Berrios, that is great but he at best will offset the 3.38 ERA that 34 year old Ervin had last year.

Sure, Santana won't be as good but it's unlikely that Santiago and Gibson are as bad, either.  Those three combined for 66 starts, 390ip, 4.36 era and a 4.8 WAR.  I think the three of them combined could improve on those numbers as a group.  If pitch framing is a thing, Gibson is the type of pitcher who would most benefit.  

[TheLeviathan]

Those guys still have high ceilings.

 

Not in the same realm as DeLeon. And your explanation emphasized floors over ceilings.

 

Maybe that's the real impasse. I'm long done with that thinking.

[gunnarthor]

 

I left the Braves off my list of teams that traded for prospects and got more and got better.....so that's another one.

 

As for the WS, they didn't figure it out until this year. They are 1 year into their trying to rebuild, aren't they?

So they're ahead of us after not having a winning season since 2012?  That's some pretty strange logic.  Atlanta's entering their 4th year of rebuilding.  Not sure if they're ahead of us.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So they're ahead of us after not having a winning season since 2012?  That's some pretty strange logic.  Atlanta's entering their 4th year of rebuilding.  Not sure if they're ahead of us.

 

Fair, I was mostly listing them as a team that traded veterans, got prospects, and have a loaded minor league system ,as compared to a system MLB or BA said might be bottom ten, after this much losing.

[gunnarthor]

 

Not in the same realm as DeLeon. And your explanation emphasized floors over ceilings.

Maybe that's the real impasse. I'm long done with that thinking.

Not really that different.  Sickels on Newcomb - "power lefty up to 97 with a plus curve and developing change-up, excellent strikeout and hit rates confirm the stuff but control and command remains shaky".  mlbpipeline wrote "Newcomb does have to cut down on his walks to reach his ceiling, but as a Northeast guy who used to divide focus among two sports, he has more upside than your typical college arm. If the control improves, he could even outperform those Jon Lester comps."  They had him pretty close to De Leon in their rankings (47 to 33) and his future grades were just as good.  De Leon's stuff wasn't graded as well but they liked his command/control.  Sounds like a Twins pitcher.  Both got 55 FV grades.  mlbpipeline reported De Leon's shoulder soreness and "shoulder inflammation."  

[Mike Sixel]

I doubt there is much, any, fire in that smoke from the Braves' talk.....unless a deal is made, we'll never know, of course. I don't know why the Braves would do that, given they have Swanson and Albies and some other MIF I can't think of right now.....not to mention they aren't good yet, and Dozier only has 2 years left on his deal.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

The Cubs spent their way out of the cellar.  

Not accurate. Rizzo came in a trade (Cashner). Russell came in a trade (Samardzija, Hammel). Arrieta came in a trade. Hendricks came in a trade (Dempster).They drafted Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber. That's pretty much their core. 

 

Unless you're placing all the credit for the Cub's meteoric rise in the hands of Chapman (rental), Lester, Lackey, Zobrist, and Heyward (who was arguably their worst player and unarguably their most expensive player last year), then it seems to me that trading Dozier would be a step in the same direction the Cubs have taken to pivot their franchise.

[TheLeviathan]

Ok, maybe Newcomb could fit as a centerpiece. Now tell me why the Cardinals don't care? They don't appear to have any interest and their roster doesn't scream need either.

 

Could that change? I guess, but you have to admit how flimsy the odds are right? You are several layers down in your hypothetical better deal now.

[gunnarthor]

 

Ok, maybe Newcomb could fit as a centerpiece. Now tell me why the Cardinals don't care? They don't appear to have any interest and their roster doesn't scream need either.

Could that change? I guess, but you have to admit how flimsy the odds are right? You are several layers down in your hypothetical better deal now.

I think the Cardinals aren't in because they have Wong locked in.  Would the Twins take a Wong/Weaver deal?  I'm not sure.  

 

I don't know what the future holds but I know that I don't want the Twins to make a bad deal now just because it's the only deal in town.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Why are we aiming for high floors over high ceilings? Have we still not learned our lesson?

 

Isn't that exactly what De Leon is at this point?

[gunnarthor]

 

Not accurate. Rizzo came in a trade (Cashner). Russell came in a trade (Samardzija, Hammel). Arrieta came in a trade. Hendricks came in a trade (Dempster).They drafted Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber. That's pretty much their core. 

 

Unless you're placing all the credit for the Cub's meteoric rise in the hands of Chapman (rental), Lester, Lackey, Zobrist, and Heyward (who was arguably their worst player and unarguably their most expensive player last year), then it seems to me that trading Dozier would be a step in the same direction the Cubs have taken to pivot their franchise.

This has come up several times but the Cubs highest sources of WAR this year came, in order, from FA signings, trades, draft picks.  

[TheLeviathan]

Isn't that exactly what De Leon is at this point?

To me he is both, which is ideal.

 

But if it's high ceiling vs high floor, I pick ceiling everytime.

[Mike Sixel]

But they started with trades....then the used FA. That's the point. The point isn't that they didn't use FA at all. It isn't that FA didn't help. It is that they used ALL avenues to build their team. So tired....

[TheLeviathan]

I think the Cardinals aren't in because they have Wong locked in.  Would the Twins take a Wong/Weaver deal?  I'm not sure.  

 

I don't know what the future holds but I know that I don't want the Twins to make a bad deal now just because it's the only deal in town.

 

Part of how you are determine bad deal is, in part, on the basis of expecting similar or better future offers. You don't get to do that and then hide behind future uncertainty.

 

That's my whole point about probability and the probabilities are decidedly against your position.

[gunnarthor]

 

But they started with trades....then the used FA. That's the point. The point isn't that they didn't use FA at all. It isn't that FA didn't help. It is that they used ALL avenues to build their team. So tired....

How did they get Hendriks? Because they had the money to extend Dempster.  How did they get Chapman? Because they had 20m laying around.  How did they get Russell?  Because they signed Hammel in FA.  Yes, they made some great trades but they were able to do them because signing a bad 4/50m pitcher didn't cripple their options.  Constantly comparing a 200m+ payrolll team to the Twins is useless.  And they didn't make bad trades. They held onto Samardzija when they didn't get an offer they liked in 2012 and saw him pitch worse in 2013.  

[gunnarthor]

 

That's my whole point about probability and the probabilities are decidedly against your position.

You think that but that doesn't mean you're right.  Making a bad trade now - and we all agree it's a bad trade - isn't ok just because you don't think you'll get a better trade later.  If you don't get your value, you hold him.