Article: Ready Or Not, Twins Have Turned To Prospects

[Tom Froemming]

Each offseason, baseball's front offices put forth a painstakingly detailed effort to build an organization of hundreds of players across a number of levels. Each element of the organization is agonized over. Every possible weakness is intimately inspected.

 

Like a painter expertly applying each brushstroke, front offices attempt to create their own masterpieces. Sometimes they'll make one broad stroke, then take a step back and measure up their next move. Other times, they'll make a series of smaller strokes with a fine brush all in one flurry of action, obsessing over some minute detail until it's just so.In the middle of the offseason that painting appears fairly clear. Some things may be able to be altered here or there, but there's also a lot of paint that has already dried.

 

Then the games start. Soon enough, the masterpiece starts to look more like a toddler's finger painting. One element of the team appears to be clear, then slap! A hastily applied random color hits it out of nowhere. An injury or severe under-performance from a player who was being depended upon completely changes your outlook.

 

The results can be catastrophic and make you wish you could just get an empty canvas. But sometimes these deviations from the plan can be happy accidents that improve the painting or at least give it new life.

 

Twins fans have seen a lot of roster construction on the fly the past few seasons. A lot of prospects who appeared to be out of the picture in terms of the big league roster made the splash and arrived to Target Field earlier than expected. Here's a brief look at some of the surprise early call ups from the past three seasons.

 

2014: Danny Santana & Kennys Vargas

 

Santana spent the prior year at Double A, and had logged just 24 games in Rochester before his May 5 call up. He had very little experience in the outfield, so no one could have predicted he would be the Twins primary center fielder that season.

 

Vargas entered that season even farther from the Majors, having played his entire 2013 season at High-A. He was called up straight from Double-A on Aug. 1 (his 24th birthday), and ended up leading the team in DH appearances.

 

2015: Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano & Tyler Duffey

 

What a fun year full of surprise call ups. Rosario was a highly-regarded prospect, but his ascension to Target Field that summer was a surprise. He was coming off a 2014 season that started with a 50-game suspension and ended with a .672 OPS in Double-A. When he was called up on May 6, he had just a .659 OPS for Rochester.

 

Buxton had played just 31 games total in 2014 and entered the year with a grand total of three plate appearances above High-A. Center field continued to be a trouble spot for the Twins, who turned to the 21-year-old Buxton for help on June 14. He had just 59 games at Double-A under his belt at the time.

 

At least Rosario and Buxton played in 2014. Sano missed that entire season due to injury, so it seemed far-fetched to think he could make an impact in the majors in 2015. But Sano didn't miss a beat, posting a .918 OPS over 66 games in Double-A before being called up on July 2.

 

The Twins have been more conservative with pitchers, but Tyler Duffey came out of nowhere to contribute late in 2015. Never a very highly-rated prospect, Duffey climbed all the way up from High-A to Triple-A in 2014 but he actually opened up '15 back in Double-A. The Opening Day rotation was full of veterans, Trevor May was waiting in the wings, Ervin Santana was coming back from suspension in the second half ... Duffey was a dark horse to make his debut, let alone get ten starts.

 

2016: Max Kepler

 

Kepler was coming off a season in which he was named the Southern League MVP. He also made his major league debut, a three-game cameo at the end of 2015. But Kepler had also never played in Triple A, and the Twins opened the season with an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Sano (they were very committed to that experiment at the time, remember?), so it seemed unlikely he'd be called upon until late in the year.

 

Kepler was called up to replace an injured Danny Santana on April 10, and mostly sat on the bench for a couple of weeks before returning to Rochester. On June 1, the Sano outfield experience was over and Kepler was called back up. He played just 30 games for the Red Wings.

 

What's to come in 2017? Well, Ted Schwerzler has a great article in the Prospect handbook that highlights the eight players most likely to make their debut this season, and even offers an ETA for each prospect. I highly recommend giving that a read.

 

Who do you think could make an early arrival to Target Field in 2017?

 

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[Oldgoat_MN]

Niko Goodrum is already 24 years old and there is absolutely no one in AAA good enough to block him. If Dozier, Polanco or Escobar go down to injury I can see Goodrum being the replacement.

 

No offense to Reginatto, Gonzalez, Field or Hague, but I don't see any of them lighting things up at the plate. Niko has a pretty clear path if they need an infielder.

[Jordan1212]

I say if we're going youth then bring them all up because I'm sure the 10 pitchers that have a remote chance at being mlb caliber can at least have a 5 Era like the rest of our staff. I would rather see Romero, Tyler Jay and Gonsalves then Kyle Gibson and Santiago yuck. How about Nick Gordon I'm sure he can bat .190 like the rest of our team let's let them guys grow instead of this. If we're going to lose I rather watch guys that have a way better shot than what we trot out there now.

[HitInAPinch]

Rosario was called up because the other possibilities [Arcia, Vargas and Sano] participated in a Home Run contest during Spring Training, instead of standard BP drills.  Molitor doesn't like that kinda stuff...

[Tom Froemming]

 

Niko Goodrum is already 24 years old and there is absolutely no one in AAA good enough to block him. If Dozier, Polanco or Escobar go down to injury I can see Goodrum being the replacement.

 

No offense to Reginatto, Gonzalez, Field or Hague, but I don't see any of them lighting things up at the plate. Niko has a pretty clear path if they need an infielder.

That's a good dark horse pick. Niko's defensive versatility certainly makes him attractive as an insurance option for multiple positions. I would toss Engelb Vielma's name into that infield mix as well. He has the advantage of already being on the 40-man roster.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Rosario was called up because the other possibilities [Arcia, Vargas and Sano] participated in a Home Run contest during Spring Training, instead of standard BP drills.  Molitor doesn't like that kinda stuff...

Seems like we could see a similar leap frogging of Zach Granite over Daniel Palka this season, 

[Thrylos]

The title of this really confused me, esp looking at the Twins' rotation, but its subject is not really what I thought it was.

 

I'd add Chargois & Rogers to the 2016 list in addition to Kepler

 

As far as 2017 goes, I agree that Goodrum might have a good chance to take Danny Santana's spot during ST.  He can play any IF position as well as CF, which is more versatility than Santana and his glove is an improvement over Santana, as is his stick that made good strides this season.

 

Daniel Palka adds to this team something they do not have:  Left hand power.  He can push Rosario as a fourth OF option with Kepler and Buxton in the other 2 spots.

 

Mitch Garver has a 33.3% chance in making the team as well, in his 3-way fight with JR Murphy and Chris Gimenez for the back up C spot.  On the other hand they might want him to have a full season at AAA, but he is 25 already.

 

Arms:

 

Hard to tell at this point, since I suspect a lot of churn with potential trades and whatnot.  I'd be surprised if Mason Melotakis is not there at some point in the season, Adalberto Mejia (who is IMO the most MLB-ready SP in the organization) as well.  If healthy I just do not see a way that Nick Burdi does not make the Twins by the end of the season.  Other than those, DJ Baxendale, Trevor Hildenberger, Jake Reed, Brandon Peterson even John Curtiss might have a chance to make it depending on performance and injuries.   But I expect still a lot of change, as far as pitching goes, in what the Twins have now and what they will have by opening day

[Doomtints]

The Twins have done more than turn to prospects.  They also resumed signing geriatrics, or players past their prime if you want to be kind.

 

It will be fun watching Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Vogelsong, and rotating green guy in 2017.  I guess.

[Tom Froemming]

 

The title of this really confused me, esp looking at the Twins' rotation, but its subject is not really what I thought it was.

 

I'd add Chargois & Rogers to the 2016 list in addition to Kepler

 

As far as 2017 goes, I agree that Goodrum might have a good chance to take Danny Santana's spot during ST.  He can play any IF position as well as CF, which is more versatility than Santana and his glove is an improvement over Santana, as is his stick that made good strides this season.

 

Daniel Palka adds to this team something they do not have:  Left hand power.  He can push Rosario as a fourth OF option with Kepler and Buxton in the other 2 spots.

 

Mitch Garver has a 33.3% chance in making the team as well, in his 3-way fight with JR Murphy and Chris Gimenez for the back up C spot.  On the other hand they might want him to have a full season at AAA, but he is 25 already.

 

Arms:

 

Hard to tell at this point, since I suspect a lot of churn with potential trades and whatnot.  I'd be surprised if Mason Melotakis is not there at some point in the season, Adalberto Mejia (who is IMO the most MLB-ready SP in the organization) as well.  If healthy I just do not see a way that Nick Burdi does not make the Twins by the end of the season.  Other than those, DJ Baxendale, Trevor Hildenberger, Jake Reed, Brandon Peterson even John Curtiss might have a chance to make it depending on performance and injuries.   But I expect still a lot of change, as far as pitching goes, in what the Twins have now and what they will have by opening day

Was more so looking for guys who I feel made their arrival a little earlier than expected. Rogers spent all of 2015 in Triple-A, so I initially didn't really consider him. But now that you mention it, it's a bit surprising he didn't get more seasoning in the minors adjusting to the relief role, so in that sense he certainly fits in.

 

I think if I suggested Chargois was called up early the first comment on this would've been Seth saying how far off base that opinion is, which would have been fun But to be fair, he did have only 33 IP at Double-A entering the year and started '16 back in 'Nooga, so maybe the shoe fits. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

The Twins have done more than turn to prospects.  They also resumed signing geriatrics, or players past their prime if you want to be kind.

 

It will be fun watching Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Vogelsong, and rotating green guy in 2017.  I guess.

... and Jesse Orosco is gonna be the closer.

[Physics Guy]

If talking about "early" arrivals, meaning sooner than expected, I would say Vielma or Gordon.  I don't have a ton of faith in Polanco at SS.  (I also don't have a ton of faith that Molitor agrees with me, but that's another story.)  Vielma and Gordon would seem the logical options if he doesn't pan out (besides Escobar of course).  The same could happen if Dozier is traded and Esco doesn't work out as a full-time SS.

 

As a fourth OF, I could definitely see Granite making it a little sooner than expected.  From what I've read he is a solid CF which would make him a good option.

[Physics Guy]

 

 

... and Jesse Orosco is gonna be the closer.

He could probably still be a LOOGY.  He's only 59 (retired from Twins at 46).

Edited January 13, 2017 by Physics Guy

[Tomj14]

"Daniel Palka adds to this team something they do not have:Left hand power"

 

Or he adds something we already have too much off - K's

[Vanimal46]

My hope is Zach Granite shows enough to warrant an early call-up. I think he could be an ideal 4th OF for the team. Speed, defense, steals a ton of bases, and just enough bat to be taken seriously. I'd have him higher on my depth chart than D Santana and Grossman. If one of Buxton/Kepler/Rosario goes down, I'd like Granite to get the call. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Granite needs time in AAA. If he can put up the kind of numbers in AAA he put up in AA he will move ahead of Palka unless Palka can do something to cut down his Ks and up his OBP.

 

I have high hopes for Shaggy. I expect him to be a strong member of the BP.

 

Is Taylor Rogers definitely moved to the BP for good? He started 27 games in AAA in 2015 but then only 2 last year before being called up. Have they decided he cannot be a MLB SP?

 

EDIT: Never mind - I see that Rogers' WHIP dropped significantly and his Ks went way up after moving to the BP. Hope he can keep it up or even improve.

Edited January 13, 2017 by Oldgoat_MN

[Mike Sixel]

 

Granite needs time in AAA. If he can put up the kind of numbers in AAA he put up in AA he will move ahead of Palka unless Palka can do something to cut down his Ks and up his OBP.

 

I have high hopes for Shaggy. I expect him to be a strong member of the BP.

 

Is Taylor Rogers definitely moved to the BP for good? He started 27 games in AAA in 2015 but then only 2 last year before being called up. Have they decided he cannot be a MLB SP?

 

I hope so, he can't get out RH batters at the MLB level, probably. Not facing them multiple times anyway. IMO, he should have been in the bullpen in 2015 at the MLB level. Not moving him sooner cost them a game or two that year, given the bullpen they had. Stubbornness on a guy that, imo, seems pretty obviously destined for the pen.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Granite needs time in AAA. If he can put up the kind of numbers in AAA he put up in AA he will move ahead of Palka unless Palka can do something to cut down his Ks and up his OBP.

 

I have high hopes for Shaggy. I expect him to be a strong member of the BP.

 

Is Taylor Rogers definitely moved to the BP for good? He started 27 games in AAA in 2015 but then only 2 last year before being called up. Have they decided he cannot be a MLB SP?

 

EDIT: Never mind - I see that Rogers' WHIP dropped significantly and his Ks went way up after moving to the BP. Hope he can keep it up or even improve.

Rogers also had trouble limiting damage to righties in Triple-A. They hit .326/.374/.457 off him in 2015. So I think they want to protect him from facing opposite-side hitters as much as possible. Nothin' wrong with that, he should be a valuable bullpen lefty for awhile.

[beckmt]

Grossman still has value here as a platoon player for either Rosario or Kepler against tough lefties.  If Front office does not add relief pitching could see a number of the close arms, Burdi, Hildenberger, Reed, or evan Duffey moved to the pen in this year.

[beckmt]

Expect some of the arms were added in case Berrios and others were not ready to start the season.  Expect Santana, Santiago, Dozier and others to be traded if the Twins get off to a bad start. 

Front office will not wait as long to pull the trigger this year(hopefully).

Being first in the selloff has its advantages.

[mikelink45]

If the FO peeks in at TD and all our comments I hope that they see that the Vogelsongs and other Old Vets and mediocre talents are not lighting up our eyes.  We are going to lose unless the young take charge and move forward so lets move on and get the youth here.  Let them learn hard lessons and establish themselves in the bigs.  I am not seeing any real direction yet, so I hope it is something that will be unveiled in ST.  But lets move on from the current rotation, adding age to the BP, keeping Santana and others we see no future for.  At least we can enjoy the excitement of the youth playing hard and getting lit up a few times with hopes that these are just growing pains and not a continuation of mediocrity.   

[Physics Guy]

 

Expect some of the arms were added in case Berrios and others were not ready to start the season.  Expect Santana, Santiago, Dozier and others to be traded if the Twins get off to a bad start. 

Front office will not wait as long to pull the trigger this year(hopefully).

Being first in the selloff has its advantages.

They should be looking to trade any of those players at any point during this season, not just if they get off to a bad start.