Article: Four Twins Arbitration Decisions Looming Again

[Seth Stohs]

Back in November, the Twins had to decide whether or not to offer 2017 contracts to six players. They non-tendered Trevor Plouffe (who now has an agreement with the A’s). The Twins agreed to terms with Eduardo Escobar who will make $2.6 million in 2017. The Twins offered arbitration to four other players for 2017: Hector Santiago, Brandon Kintzler, Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly.

 

If those players do not have an agreement with the Twins by Friday (several players already have), the two sides will exchange numbers. Obviously the player and his agent will ask the team for a number. The Twins side will likely think that number is a bit high and will come in with their own number, likely lower. Most often, the two sides wind up meeting somewhere near the midpoint on a deal.With that in mind, let's try to project (OK, guess) what will happen over the next two days. Post your thoughts and guesses in the Comments below.

 

HECTOR SANTIAGO

 

Service Time: 5.016

2016 Salary: $5.0 Million

MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $8.6 Million

Twins Daily Projection: 8.0 Million

 

Santiago came to the Twins at the deadline last year in exchange for Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer. He struggled early, but was better late. He has been an All-Star and until his 4.70 ERA in 2016, he had never posted an ERA over 3.75. He has pitched over 180 innings in each of the last two seasons.

 

Seth’s Guesses

Santiago Asks: $8.5 Million

Twins Offer: $7.0 Million

Midpoint: $7.75 Million

 

A huge salary bump after a rough season for Santiago doesn’t make sense, but he’ll get a bump because of the innings and the numbers prior to 2016. That means there is potentially a pretty big difference between what Santiago’s side wants and what the Twins might be willing to offer. The bigger the gap, the more difficult it can be for both sides to reach an agreement in the middle. Remember that the Twins sent $4 million to the Angels in that trade last year to avoid needing to pay Nolasco $12 million in 2017. In other words, it appears that they anticipated needing to pay him around $8 million.

 

BRANDON KINTZLER

 

Service Time: 4.128

2016 Salary: $1.1 Million

MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $2.2 Million

Twins Daily Projection: $2.5 Million

 

Kintzler’s road to the big leagues was interesting and even included a stint with the St. Paul Saints. After a couple of solid seasons in middle relief for the Brewers, he missed much of the 2015 season with a knee injury. The Brewers non-tendered him after that season and the Twins quickly signed him to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Though he didn’t start the season in the big leagues, he was with the Twins within a month. Not only did he pitch well and show increased velocity, but he became the Twins closer and recorded 17 saves.

 

Seth’s Guesses

Kintzler Asks: $2.95 Million

Twins Offer: $2.25 Million

Midpoint: $2.6 Million

 

This is an interesting one because of the saves. Frankly, if he had just worked in middle relief, he would likely be in line for a deal between $1.9 and $2.2 million. The reality is that the saves probably mean something in arbitration discussions. While I can’t imagine Kintzler’s side overstating their case, they should be using it to their advantage. That’s why I kept them just shy of $3 million. The Twins will argue that he isn’t really a typical closer and fits the role of middle relief. That would be an easier case for them if they had a veteran closer on the staff at this point. This feels like one where an agreement should be easy to reach.

 

KYLE GIBSON

 

Service Time: 3.056

2016 Salary: approximately $600,000

MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $3.5 Million

Twins Daily Projection: $2.5 Million

 

Gibson was being fast-tracked to the big leagues. He was the team’s #1 pick in 2009 and began his career in Ft. Myers in 2010. He finished the season with several starts in AAA. That’s where he began the 2011 season. By season’s end, he had Tommy John surgery and missed the 2012 season. He debuted in 2013 and became a fixture in the Twins rotation since 2014. He was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015. A month into the 2016 season, he landed on the DL with some shoulder pain. He returned about six weeks later and was inconsistent the rest of the season.

 

Seth’s Guesses

Gibson Asks: $3.55 Million

Twins Offer: $2.55 Million

Midpoint: $3.05 Million

 

This is another difficult one. It is Gibson’s first trek into arbitration. There are some first-year arbitration eligible starting pitchers who have reached closer to $4 million, but I don’t think Gibson can reach that level. But the Twins may be able to use his 2016 struggles to negate some of the value he could have received after 2015. The Twins can’t really go any lower than $2.5 million. My guess is that they will reach an agreement with Gibson just shy of the midpoint with some innings-incentives that could push him just past the midpoint. Using my guesses, I could see a deal for about $2.9 million with $50K bonus at 140 innings, $50K at 170 innings, $50K at 185 innings and $50K at 200 innings.

 

RYAN PRESSLY

 

Service Time: 3.053

2016 Salary: approximately $550,000

MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $1.1 Million

Twins Daily Projection: $1.5 Million

 

Pressly came to the Twins in the December 2012 Rule 5 draft. He spent the entire 2013 season with the Twins, but he was able to go to Rochester in 2014. He returned late in 2014 and pitched well. He was off to a very good start in 2015 but an injury ended his season early. Pressly was one of the most used relievers early in the 2016 season and in time it caught up to him. Blessed with a fastball that reached 98 and even 99 mph, he has the potential to be very good in the bullpen.

 

Seth’s Guesses

Pressly Asks: $1.65 Million

Twins Offer: $1.15 Million

Midpoint: $1.4 Million

 

I can’t imagine this one even getting to the point of exchanging figures. They should be fairly close in the $1.1 to $1.5 million range. I would think that they are close enough where midpoint agreement would work. He pitched innings, but was average for a reliever, numbers-wise. He has missed time the two previous seasons, so he should fit into a typical first-year arbitration reliever range.

 

 

So what do you think? Which players will come to an agreement with the Twins before exchanging numbers? Is it possible that the Twins could go to arbitration for the first time in over a decade in 2017? We shall find out in the next couple of days.

 

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[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm curious to see how the bump in minimum salaries effect the lower projected guys, like Pressly.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm curious to see how the bump in minimum salaries effect the lower projected guys, like Pressly.

 

My guess is that it won't a whole lot. The general inflation of all salaries probably is equally helpful to those types.

[PopRiveter]

I can't seem to get too worked up about the difference between these numbers, but I will say I am always happy to see the club come close to the player's suggested number as it seems it would indicate goodwill and improve the players' "buy-in" and commitment level.

 

Regarding these four specifically:

I could see Pressly growing into the closer role and Kintzler providing Guerrier-like value over several seasons.

 

Escobar is worth keeping at this cost.

 

Gibson is a bigtime X-factor in my opinion. Everytime I think I know what he is, the picture changes. I can't figure what to make of him. The pricepoint is low enough to watch with an open mind for another year.

[joefish]

If I had a drinking problem I'd blame it on Gibson's inconsistency.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

The twins won't go to an arbitration hearing on any of them. When was the last time the Twins went to an arb hearing? Of course, now the Twins are under new management... but still, they'll reach agreements.

 

Seth, I think your numbers are pretty accurate. I find the differences between MLB Trade Rumors and the Twin Daily projections interesting. I tend to think the Twins Daily numbers are closer to the mark in each case. 

[tobi0040]

I can't believe we would pay Santiago $8m.

[HitInAPinch]

Santiago:  Well, he has the continuing ability to remain left handed on his side.

Kintzler: The closer until further notice.  Bank on it.   

Gibson:  I just haven't seen enough good things about him to even keep him around.  Oh, yeah.  Innings eater....

Pressly:  The longest delivery I've ever seen.  And this guy could be a closer?  Only if they use him like the Twins did with Perkins:  rarely let him get into a game with a runner on base.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Is every team's list that uninspiring? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

cannot say I understand the angst on Gibson.  3 years in the majors guys... last year he was lights out for a long period of time and struggled through injuries this year.  Not sure who the real Gibson is, but I don't think that is one to give up on.

[jimmer]

 

Santiago:  Well, he has the continuing ability to remain left handed on his side.

Kintzler: The closer until further notice.  Bank on it.   

Gibson:  I just haven't seen enough good things about him to even keep him around.  Oh, yeah.  Innings eater....

Pressly:  The longest delivery I've ever seen.  And this guy could be a closer?  Only if they use him like the Twins did with Perkins:  rarely let him get into a game with a runner on base.

all of this, especially the third guy

[Jordan1212]

Gibson is not good never will be sorry for the news flash. Agree with comment about Santiago he will stay left handed and not worth 8 million.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

cannot say I understand the angst on Gibson.  3 years in the majors guys... last year he was lights out for a long period of time and struggled through injuries this year.  Not sure who the real Gibson is, but I don't think that is one to give up on.

 

I have no angst toward Gibson, but am more bewildered by the angst toward Santiago.

 

Santiago is younger than Gibson (by like, 55 days).

Santiago has had 3 years where his ERA+ was higher than Gibson's career high.

Santiago's ERA+ was higher than Gibson's ERA+ was for 2016. Santiago started off with 4 bad games with the Twins. Of his last 7 games, 5 were outstanding.

 

Even counting his Twins stats, Santiago had a lower WHIP and higher SO/9 than Gibson.

 

Good/average pitchers are expensive. It is not going to break the Twins financially if they have to pay Santiago $8M.

 

EDIT: I LIED! Santiago has had 2 years where his ERA+ was higher than Gibson' career high (106). Another year Santiago had an ERA+ of 105. Sorry!

Edited January 13, 2017 by Oldgoat_MN

[Seth Stohs]

To steal a fun catch phrase we see often... a person with direct knowledge told me that teams have until noon central time to reach an agreement before they are required to exchange numbers. We'll keep things updated here.

[Seth Stohs]

According to Mike Berardino, the Twins and Kyle Gibson avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year, $2.9 million deal.

 

 

 

 

I'll be interested in finding out if there are any incentives in this deal... Here's what I wrote in the article...

 

 

Using my guesses, I could see a deal for about $2.9 million with $50K bonus at 140 innings, $50K at 170 innings, $50K at 185 innings and $50K at 200 innings.

 

[Halsey Hall]

 

According to Mike Berardino, the Twins and Kyle Gibson avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year, $2.9 million deal.

 

 

 

 

I'll be interested in finding out if there are any incentives in this deal... Here's what I wrote in the article...

Yup, Gibson read that!

[Seth Stohs]

Per Berardino, the Twins and Hector Santiago settled at $8 million.

 

 

That's exactly what we projected in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm hopeful they don't mess with Santiago again....and let him be effectively wild.

[Comrade Bork]

Spot on for Santiago.  

[davidc3915]

That's 2 for 2!  Any advice on Lottery Numbers for tonight?

[Seth Stohs]

Per Doogie... Kintzler agrees at $2.925 million...

 

 

The Saves got him some extra money, no doubt. Which is fine. It's still not a big number.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Wow, you were pretty close, really. Right on with Santiago, $8 million; a little low on Gibson and Kintzler. Kintzler's was actually close to what you said his asking price would be. Obviously Falvey and Levine value him higher than TD or MLBTR.

 

Ryan's will come in today too... Just my thought.

 

[Seth Stohs]

They did not reach an agreement with Pressly so the two sides will exchange figures. 

 

They can still negotiate even after that happens up until it goes to the...

 

arbiter or arbitrator(?)... 

[davidc3915]

 

Per Doogie... Kintzler agrees at $2.925 million...

 

 

The Saves got him some extra money, no doubt. Which is fine. It's still not a big number.

Very close without going over!  You'd be a winner on Price is Right!

 

For Pressley, I'll say $1.......

[Seth Stohs]

Per Jerry Crasnick, Twins and Ryan Pressly have agreed at $1.175 million.

 

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

So they DID reach an agreement after all. That's actually pretty low for what I expected. He's been a pretty good  relief pitcher.

[jimmer]

Ryan Pressly had an ERA of 3.70 in 2016, the only year in the last 3 where he pitched more than 30 innings in the majors.  He also allowed 41% of inherited runners to score.

[snepp]

 

That's 2 for 2!  Any advice on Lottery Numbers for tonight?

 

To hell with the lottery, how about something on the Dozier trade!