Article: Other Offseason Shopping Needs

[gunnarthor]

 

Here is the current Twins' rotation (in no particular order)

 

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

Santiago 

May

 

which means that unless they get read of Santana and Santiago (and Hughes as soon as they can), not only the new pitchers they may get in a Dozier return do not fit in, but Berrios and Mejia as well (Duffey in the pen where he belongs.)  And by allowing Berrios to play for PR in the WBC, the Twins pretty much closed the door on him.

 

 

This is not what to do to an 103 L team that had the worst pitching in the majors.

 

Santana is half a UCL and one more PED suspension for being worthless for the Twins; he needs to go, as much as Dozier does.

I don't think Hughes has a spot in the rotation unless he shows that he's throwing real fastballs again.  Every year we argue about SP depth but it's needed.  We aren't going to go with 5 starters and Berrios and Mejia will probably be up and down (although it would be great if they locked down a spot for the next decade).  It's still a long shot to declare that Molitor will let May start.

[drjim]

 

I don't think Hughes has a spot in the rotation unless he shows that he's throwing real fastballs again.  Every year we argue about SP depth but it's needed.  We aren't going to go with 5 starters and Berrios and Mejia will probably be up and down (although it would be great if they locked down a spot for the next decade).  It's still a long shot to declare that Molitor will let May start.

 

I agree with the Hughes and May concerns, which is why I would certainly endorse signing another starter.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This gets rehashed again and again, but Berrios, Mejia and (potentially) De Leon have done nothing to be given a spot in the opening day rotation, no matter what the Twins record was last year. It is a good thing they are not Plan A.

 

Injuries happen, May and Hughes can go the bullpen, spring training trades can easily happen. If those young guys come out and earn it they'll get their opportunity.

 

What more would you want Berrios to do in AAA.

[South Dakota Tom]

My greater sense, and it is explored here, is that the Dozier deal is holding up everything else.    If Dozier is dealt (assuming for JDL +), then - and only then - do you reassess your needs.

 

It is a domino - Polanco slides over to 2B, Escobar is penciled in at SS, and you decide if you have a 4th IF anywhere on your roster in 2017 (D San - no; Vielma - probably no; Beresford - possibly).  So then that starting SS or 4th IF becomes a higher priority.

 

I'm not saying we're getting a SS or RP or 4th OF back for Dozier, but you pretty much gotta wait and see.  Any position that we fill now (outside of the emergency need at C) to some extent ties our hands on a potential return for Dozier.

 

That's why the front office wanted final offers for him.  If he is staying, we got holes to fill.   If he is traded, we need to figure out where those holes remain.   I agree with most here that Bellinger is probably not coming back in the Dozier deal, or the SS they like, but there is time to find those positions still before spring.

 

Would be nice if something happened (my lips to God's ears) just to break the bleak monotony of this cold, windy winter, but I don't see our off-season shopping list as anything in crisis - least not from a timing standpoint.

[drjim]

 

What more would you want Berrios to do in AAA.

 

Decrease his walk rate and get off to a strong start. Also ease in his starts and innings for the year. Interested in him finishing strong in September and being ready to go Day 1 in 2018 too.

 

But I'm also open to him breaking camp in the bigs, just shouldn't be Plan A

[Mike Sixel]

 

Decrease his walk rate and get off to a strong start. Also ease in his starts and innings for the year. Interested in him finishing strong in September and being ready to go Day 1 in 2018 too.

 

But I'm also open to him breaking camp in the bigs, just shouldn't be Plan A

 

If the ball is actually different (why the heck would MLB do that), I'd want him here with certainty, learning with that ball....

[diehardtwinsfan]

I personally think you're selling Escobar a bit short. I'd give him another shot at SS and see if his 2016 down year was health related.

 

Not sure if I'd spend big other than picking up RP options that can be flipped at the deadline or cast aside if a guy like Melotakis or Chargois steps up.  I really want to see the Twins get some of their younger players in the pen, which means having spots for those two along with Hildenberger, Burdi, or Reed.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I personally think you're selling Escobar a bit short. I'd give him another shot at SS and see if his 2016 down year was health related.

Don't get me wrong, I like Escobar. But he had a terrible year on both sides of the ball. And right now if Dozier gets traded he is the sole option at shortstop. Bringing in someone like Aybar gives you a decent plug-in if the struggles continue, and a versatile veteran backup if Esco returns to form.

[Lonestar]

Cannot go with 13-man pitching staff and 3-man bench.

Jettison D Santana and Grossman.

Sign Bourjos.

Insert Escobar at SS.

Sign Aaron Barrett to split deal.

Polanco plays 2B if Dozier is traded, super utility if he is not.

Sign Drew if Dozier is traded.

Dump Santiago's salary.

Sign Brett Anderson to incentive-laden deal.

Hope Park is ready and able.

[bluechipper]

 

Decrease his walk rate and get off to a strong start. Also ease in his starts and innings for the year. Interested in him finishing strong in September and being ready to go Day 1 in 2018 too.

 

But I'm also open to him breaking camp in the bigs, just shouldn't be Plan A

I think Berrios should be in the plans to start in the rotation, especially if shows good control during the spring. He's got to learn how to pitch to MLB hitters at some point.

 

And he threw about 170 innings last year, so I wouldn't even worry about his innings count for 2017.

[bluechipper]

 

Not sure if I'd spend big other than picking up RP options that can be flipped at the deadline or cast aside if a guy like Melotakis or Chargois steps up.  I really want to see the Twins get some of their younger players in the pen, which means having spots for those two along with Hildenberger, Burdi, or Reed.

I agree with this. Remember last offseason when so many people wanted the Twins to sign Bastardo or Sipp? That hasn't worked out too well.

[ThejacKmp]

Time to start trying to ink Buxton and Sano and Kepler and Berrios to long-term deals. Agree with the author that there isn't really anywhere to spend a lot of money. I'm fine with that but let's use that money to try to get a deal on some of these guys before they explode and get too expensive.

[HitInAPinch]

Random thoughts:

 

Escobar had a groin injury in May and then a  hamstring injury in July that lingered a bit.  In that time, Eduardo Nunez took over and went on to hit like a madman.

 

Rosario:  Ahem, "The Throw."  Yeah.....

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article96623782.html

 

Yeah.  But there is this:

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v1030918183/houmin-rosario-throws-995-mph-to-nab-bregman

 

Both deserve another shot.  That, and I really don't think Polanco is a good shortstop.  Second is his best position and not a bad fill-in at 3rd.  Love his bat.  Aybar would be a good add.

 

Kinzler did very well as a closer until overuse caught up with him.  At worse, I'd like to see a MiLB pitcher step up as a co-closer.  Shopping for a veteran?  If not Neftali Feliz, how about Sergio Romo?

 

Rest of bullpen:  I wouldn't change a thing.  Need to see those young arms develop further.  Pretty sure Hughes will be in the pen.

 

Starter:  If Berrios and another MiLBer aren't in the rotation, I'd sure like to hear Falvey and Levine have in mind.  May needs to be in the rotation, so does Ervin, for different reasons.  Last spot goes to Santiago.  Hughes injury history is 1 great season, injury from over-use and into the bullpen, if I remember correctly.  The Twins adding onto his innings for stinking win #16 was a bad move.

 

OF is set.  Need a 4th:  anyone with solid+ defense, speed and some OPS. Starting catcher is set. Backup?

 

Stop whining about Mauer. 

 

[gunnarthor]

Why is everyone ready to jettison Grossman?  Sure, his defense is crap but he can take a walk - something our team lacks.   I trust his hitting ability a lot more than I trust Vargas and (sadly) Park right now.  As a back-up DH/4th or 5th OF, he's not bad - esp if Molitor uses him in a platoon. 

[ashbury]

Why is everyone ready to jettison Grossman?  Sure, his defense is crap but he can take a walk - something our team lacks.   I trust his hitting ability a lot more than I trust Vargas and (sadly) Park right now.  As a back-up DH/4th or 5th OF, he's not bad - esp if Molitor uses him in a platoon. 

Backup-DH. That's how you list him first. Roster spots are too precious for that.

 

Your defense of him is how I indict him.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Why is everyone ready to jettison Grossman?  Sure, his defense is crap but he can take a walk - something our team lacks.   I trust his hitting ability a lot more than I trust Vargas and (sadly) Park right now.  As a back-up DH/4th or 5th OF, he's not bad - esp if Molitor uses him in a platoon. 

 

Robbie Grossman let the team in OBP. I like that and have used it as a reason to keep him. However...

 

The problem is that neither Rosario or Kepler are sure to be MLB average hitters. Buxton may or may not be, but his elite CF will keep him in the lineup unless he is very, very bad at the plate.

When looking to rest outfielders occasionally it makes it difficult if your 4th OF is a complete disaster as a fielder. This is an issue, and one I cannot reconcile. Tough decision to be made. Let your team leader in OBP walk away?

Vargas is a very good hitter against LH pitching (.800 OPS in 2016). He and Mauer need to platoon.

Sadly, I don't see Molitor doing that.

[drjim]

Is it a sure thing that Grossman will be a disaster in the field this season? He was bad last year for sure, but previous years he seemed at least passable. Not impossible he can be a functioning LF in a part time role.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Is it a sure thing that Grossman will be a disaster in the field this season? He was bad last year for sure, but previous years he seemed at least passable. Not impossible he can be a functioning LF in a part time role.

 

I looked it up on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, only to confirm that you are right.

He was incredibly bad in CF in 2013, but Buxton, Rosario and Kepler can all play CF.

 

For some reason Grossman was unusually terrible in 2016. Seems that his 2014 stats and his 2015 stats are passable. In fact in 2014 he was a slightly plus OF in 865 innings.

[Platoon]

Maturity by Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, and yes I think even Roaario will go a long way to making this team semi competitive. But until they fill the black hole at SS and seriously upgrade the SP, they will never be printing playoff tickets as the second WC. If we keep Dozier, meaning Polanco plays SS, or EE, and we then spend the first half of the year trying to decide which 5 of our multitude of SP will be able to pitch into the 6th inning, the season will again be over in May!

[glunn]

 

Please let's evaluate Vargas by letting him start at 1B. Mauer is DH, 1B backup, left bat off bench. Rather see if Vargas can play everyday. This infield scares me. But please do not move Dozier without fair value. Bourjos helps every pitcher on the staff.

Welcome to Twins Daily.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is it a sure thing that Grossman will be a disaster in the field this season? He was bad last year for sure, but previous years he seemed at least passable. Not impossible he can be a functioning LF in a part time role.

My Kingdom for "at least passable" players.   

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Robbie Grossman let the team in OBP. I like that and have used it as a reason to keep him. However...

 

The problem is that neither Rosario or Kepler are sure to be MLB average hitters. Buxton may or may not be, but his elite CF will keep him in the lineup unless he is very, very bad at the plate.

When looking to rest outfielders occasionally it makes it difficult if your 4th OF is a complete disaster as a fielder. This is an issue, and one I cannot reconcile. Tough decision to be made. Let your team leader in OBP walk away?

Vargas is a very good hitter against LH pitching (.800 OPS in 2016). He and Mauer need to platoon.

Sadly, I don't see Molitor doing that.

I Googled "percent of left handed pitchers in mlb 2016".

 

Left-handed pitchers accounted for about 28 percent of all plate appearances since 2010.

 

So, Vargas would be playing only 28% of the time?  IMO, I think I would have taken one of those alleged trade offers for Vargas.  Or maybe the Dodger would take him?    LOL

[Thrylos]

 

If the ball is actually different (why the heck would MLB do that), I'd want him here with certainty, learning with that ball....

 

Of course the ball is different:  

 

http://www.zackhample.com/baseball_collection/photos/weird/international_league2.jpg

 

http://content.sportslogos.net/news/2015/01/New-Major-League-Baseball-for-2015-Rob-Manfred-Signature-Rawlins.jpg

 

 

[Halsey Hall]

The seams are higher on the International league ball.  I pointed that out to a couple coaches a few years back and they didn't know why.  I found out - they're cheaper to make.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The seams are higher on the International league ball.  I pointed that out to a couple coaches a few years back and they didn't know why.  I found out - they're cheaper to make.

 

Unreal.  A multi-billion dollar industry, and they don't use the same ball in AAA as in the majors (probably other parts of the minors also). Talk about setting up players for failure....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is it a sure thing that Grossman will be a disaster in the field this season? He was bad last year for sure, but previous years he seemed at least passable. Not impossible he can be a functioning LF in a part time role.

Depends on how you define "passable", I suppose.  Is a Grossman level defender really "passable" considering our already precarious pitching?

 

FWIW, TotalZone has never really liked Grossman (-12 and -19 Rtot/yr figures preceding his -29 with the Twins last year).  Combined with observation, I wouldn't be surprised if his overall metrics are finally trending toward his true talent level in the field, even if he's not quite as bad as 2016 suggested.  Over his career, just in LF, he now averages -12 UZR/150, -13 Rtot/yr, and -15 Rdrs/yr..

 

Given the current roster, I guess I still might roll with him and hope he has another hot start and maybe you can flip him to an aggressive team at the trade deadline for something interesting like we did with Nunez and Abad.  Although if another interesting outfield candidate comes available, I might rather drop Grossman and put Rosario more in the 4th OF role.

Edited January 10, 2017 by spycake

[Doomtints]

 

Is it a sure thing that Grossman will be a disaster in the field this season? He was bad last year for sure, but previous years he seemed at least passable. Not impossible he can be a functioning LF in a part time role.

 

Most likely Grossman is neither the bad defender he was in 2016 nor is he the great hitter he was in 2016. He is going to regress on both ends.

[Thrylos]

 

Unreal.  A multi-billion dollar industry, and they don't use the same ball in AAA as in the majors (probably other parts of the minors also). Talk about setting up players for failure....

 

Every single league has its own balls.  So they use a different ball in AAA International League and in AAA Pacific Coast League even...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Every single league has its own balls.  So they use a different ball in AAA International League and in AAA Pacific Coast League even...

 

really? wow. How is that good for development of pitchers?

[laloesch]

 

Time to start trying to ink Buxton and Sano and Kepler and Berrios to long-term deals. Agree with the author that there isn't really anywhere to spend a lot of money. I'm fine with that but let's use that money to try to get a deal on some of these guys before they explode and get too expensive.

 

Ehhh.....I'd wait another two seasons.  None of the guys has been consistently productive yet.  Way to early yet to commit big bucks to them IMO.