Article: Moving Dozier Needs to Include Creativity

[Mike Sixel]

I think trades have 6 months to be fully settled if they involve PTBNL or cash considerations. So a deal consummated now could include considerations decided on July 2nd.

It's a stupid rule, if you want teams to be able to plan....

[Doomtints]

Regarding Gibson, pitchf/x is showing almost no change between last year and his prior years.  He was hitting the same locations as always and with the same velocity.  

 

I think we can safely chalk up Gibson's 2016 as being a dud year due to injuries, a bit of bad luck, and a terrible defense being behind him.  

 

Having said all that, Gibson is still just a #4 or #5 guy.  I think he will be better in 2017 (if healthy and with better defensive play) but he's not likely to become the next Cy Young award winner regardless.  He is probably the best #4/#5 option the team has, but that's not saying much.  

 

How much of Gibson's ERA is due to a reliever letting the inherited baserunners score?

Edited January 3, 2017 by Doomtints

[shs_59]

Another factor in the Dozier / De Leon potential swap the Dodgers could be overlooking is that

 

Dozier plays every day.  De Leon pitches every 5th day, gives you what maybe 150 -160 innings next year?

 

Brian Dozier had 640 AB's last year on a terrible ball club.

 

The Dodgers are getting potentially 1,200 innings from Brian next year, where the Twins are getting at best 1/6th of that from De Leon.    I know pitching trumps that in many ways but De Leon is far from sure thing

 

a minimum of De Leon and Calhoun and De Jong or B. Stewart

 

an ideal of De Leon and Buehler

 

and a similar maximum of what the White Sox got for 5 yrs of Adam Eaton.  B/C...  Dozier > Eaton.

Edited January 3, 2017 by shs_59

[nicksaviking]

 

Personally, I think Gibson gets a bad rap because of his down...and injury plagued...2016. For the two seasons before he was solid and showed improvement from '14 to '15. I would fully expect, at this time, to see a different and healthy Gibson in 2017 that looks like the '15 version, perhaps even better. But I sometimes feel like he doesn't trust himself or his stuff. If you remember many years ago, Viola had a problem of nibbling too much. Despite not having tremendous heat or big time SO potential, Viola was suddenly convinced that he was indeed a power pitcher, and not a "crafty" LH and needed to trust his stuff.
 

 

I'm not sure what caused his down year and I agree that he still has potential, but I'm of the mind that most of his problems are self-inflicted. Perhaps he doubts his secondary pitches but he shouldn't and I'm not sure that's the case.

 

I have a hard time thinking of Gibson without getting frustrated with this direct quote he gave to Fangraphs:

 

“I have this debate with Glen quite a bit: How effective an out on two or three pitches is as opposed to a strikeout. For me, a soft ground ball is just as effective if it’s within the first two or three pitches. If I’m able to keep my hard contact rate low, ground balls are almost automatic outs for me.

 

“When hitters puts balls in play, they’re going to get a hit sooner or later. But if I get five ground balls in a row, I’m more than likely going to get out of the inning. Offensive numbers will tell you that. If they only get a hit three out of every ten times they put the ball in play, that’s less than two out of five, so I like my chances.”

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-gibson-on-pitching-to-contact/

 

1) He isn't getting outs on two or three pitches.

2) He's not getting soft contact on his sinker or four-seamer.

3) He isn't likely to get five groundballs in a row as evidenced by the fact that he only had a 54% GB rate on his sinker (!) last year. Meanwhile if softly hit groundballs are so important, his Changeup and Slider both had a nearly 48% GB rate, with his change actually getting more GB than his sinker in 2014 AND 2015. The offspeed pitches also had wiff rates of 32% and 43% while the sinker only got wiffs 7% of the time.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=502043&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=gb&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/03/2017

 

4) Listen to Glen, he's been around longer and probably has some good insight into the value of the strikeout.

 

Gibson is stubborn and/or is listening to the wrong people about how to use his pitches. If that's truly the problem that should be fixable with the right superior telling him he's got to change his approach. Gibson's best pitch is his changeup, I'm hopeful Falvey/Lavine/Allen tell him he's not a sinkerball pitcher, he's just a pitcher who has a sinker he can use from time to time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's a stupid rule, if you want teams to be able to plan....

Well, they still have 6 months to plan.

 

MLB doesn't allow much draft pick trading either, so I think they try to discourage teams from dealing these resources.  I also think MLB prevents bonus pool trading until July 2nd to somewhat discourage pre-July 2nd deals with prospects.

 

Also, I wonder if it helps them keep bonus pool adjustments as a punishment option -- say, if team A traded away from its future bonus pool, and then is revealed to have broken some international signing rules like the Red Sox did.  Hard to take away from the future bonus pool after it has already been traded!

[TheLeviathan]

Depending upon how the 2B/SS thing shakes out, I expect a pretty good bounce back by Gibson this year.

[drjim]

 

Depending upon how the 2B/SS thing shakes out, I expect a pretty good bounce back by Gibson this year.

 

I do too. Still think he has a solid #3 in him.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Much of your reply misses my point completely.  40 HR guys are extremely rare. Unlike Killer, Doze can play defense and run. He is a 5 tool infielder. 

 

Prospects mean the same as potential. "You ain't done anything yet"

 

And it doesn't matter what Brew's era in baseball was like. My point is you don't trade a top player in all of baseball for a bag of magic beans.

40 home run hitters aren't worth what they once were, look at all the RH free agent power hitters still on the market.

[jimmer]

 

40 home run hitters aren't worth what they once were, look at all the RH free agent power hitters still on the market.

that and assuming he will continue to be a 40 home run guy seems wishful thinking at best.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, they still have 6 months to plan.

 

MLB doesn't allow much draft pick trading either, so I think they try to discourage teams from dealing these resources.  I also think MLB prevents bonus pool trading until July 2nd to somewhat discourage pre-July 2nd deals with prospects.

 

Also, I wonder if it helps them keep bonus pool adjustments as a punishment option -- say, if team A traded away from its future bonus pool, and then is revealed to have broken some international signing rules like the Red Sox did.  Hard to take away from the future bonus pool after it has already been traded!

 

Oh, I am sure they think this will keep bonus numbers down, it's still a stupid rule, unless your only goal is to keep bonuses down....

[kellyvance]

 

40 home run hitters aren't worth what they once were, look at all the RH free agent power hitters still on the market.

Two players had more homers than Doze last year....two. in all of baseball. 

Guys "still on the market" so what? They will all find a home. 

Trading a standout like Doze you don't do unless the haul is massive

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oh, I am sure they think this will keep bonus numbers down, it's still a stupid rule, unless your only goal is to keep bonuses down....

That's probably the most important goal, yes.

 

But in the new CBA, MLB has taken a more aggressive position about withholding bonus pool money as punishment too.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/mlb-mlbpa-agree-to-new-collective-bargaining-agreement.html

 

 

Passan also reports that the new CBA allows the league to issue extreme levels of punishment to teams that try to circumvent the international spending guidelines that are in place. Per Passan, MLB can penalize up to 50 percent of a team’s international bonus money through the 2021 season if it is found to be in violation of the new international signing rules.

 

In that light, that July 2nd thing and 6 month rule make sense.  You can't trade future bonus pool money that's further than 6 months away (not unreasonable), and by forcing future bonus pool money to be traded as "future considerations", you essentially require the teams to have a contingency plan in place in case MLB withholds future bonus pool money as a punishment.  (Like how "PTBNL or cash" trades generally have a contingency of another player or cash in case a player is injured.)  Make the teams plan for it, so the league doesn't have to unravel an already completed transaction later.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Two players had more homers than Doze last year....two. in all of baseball. 

Guys "still on the market" so what? They will all find a home. 

Trading a standout like Doze you don't do unless the haul is massive

Yeah, except those two have shown in the past to be more consistent power hitters than Dozier. Though dozier is the best all around player. That being said, when the two players that hit more home runs are still on the market, it says something about the value of the long ball in our game right now.

[AZTwin]

Yeah, except those two have shown in the past to be more consistent power hitters than Dozier. Though dozier is the best all around player. That being said, when the two players that hit more home runs are still on the market, it says something about the value of the long ball in our game right now.

And with the prospects changing hands over the winter, just shows the market is recognizing how much risks prospects hold and are valuing proven talent (such as dozier) very highly

[CiabanItReal]

 

And with the prospects changing hands over the winter, just shows the market is recognizing how much risks prospects hold and are valuing proven talent (such as dozier) very highly

I think it says more about the value of years of control, that a player such as Dozier and Todd Frazier aren't fielding the same interest as a player like Sale or Quintana, or Eaton.

[Linus]

Would you have traded Harmon Killebrew for a possible back end starter that has never won in the Bigs in 1965?

 

Didn't think so.

 

Dozier has OF/1B/3B power as a decent middle infielder. He gets two possible "soon to right now" starters or we bat him 3rd all next year.

Will try to use language that the mods won't delete ....but to compare Brian Dozier to Harmon Killebrew might be the most....inaccurate.... things I've read on this site.

[kellyvance]

 

Yeah, except those two have shown in the past to be more consistent power hitters than Dozier. Though dozier is the best all around player. That being said, when the two players that hit more home runs are still on the market, it says something about the value of the long ball in our game right now.

Home runs are still valued more than anything... a home run hitter can make a huge difference. And last time I looked, you still won by scoring more runs than the other team.I am wondering if we aren't seeing owners clamping down, sort of like in the collusion era. But there is no way that you value pitching prospects over a proven run producer....who fields well, steals bases and is a team leader. 

[kellyvance]

 

Will try to use language that the mods won't delete ....but to compare Brian Dozier to Harmon Killebrew might be the most....inaccurate.... things I've read on this site.

Oh bull.  Who was the last Twin to hit 40 homers before Dozier?   Yeah....not Hrbek, Kirby or anyone else. .. and Dozier can run, steal bases and field.   Killebrew was a slugger. A very prolific slugger, but he was not an all around player like Dozier. I made this point to show how out of whack some folks thinking is to think of dealing Dozier for a couple kids with potential. The Twins brass know they need to get a ton in return for Dozier. They are right to hold out. 

Edited January 5, 2017 by kellyvance

[Linus]

Oh bull. Who was the last Twin to hit 40 homers before Dozier? Yeah....not Hrbek, Kirby or anyone else. .. and Dozier can run, steal bases and field. Killebrew was a slugger. A very prolific slugger, but he was not an all around player like Dozier. I made this point to show how out of whack some folks thinking is to think of dealing Dozier for a couple kids with potential. The Twins brass know they need to get a ton in return for Dozier. They are right to hold out.

Dude reality check. When Harmon retired he was 5th all time on the homer list. I think you need to check the entirety of their careers.

[jimmer]

 

Oh bull.  Who was the last Twin to hit 40 homers before Dozier?   Yeah....not Hrbek, Kirby or anyone else. .. and Dozier can run, steal bases and field.   Killebrew was a slugger. A very prolific slugger, but he was not an all around player like Dozier. I made this point to show how out of whack some folks thinking is to think of dealing Dozier for a couple kids with potential. The Twins brass know they need to get a ton in return for Dozier. They are right to hold out. 

As soon as Dozier goes back in time and has even better seasons than he had last year starting from age 23 all the way to age 36 he can be in the same conversation as Killebrew.

 

Dozier is an all around player because of one year. Interesting.  At age 29, He has a career slash of.246 BA, .320 OBP, .442 slg% (107 wRC+ ) and is an average fielder.

 

Interesting.ONE year of hitting 40 HR at age 29 for Dozier and all of a sudden we read things like he's a better all around player than HOFer Killebrew.  ONE year.

 

You're right, if they don't get a ton for him, they should keep him while he falls back to his normal self (still good, but a drop off in value) and then leaves as a FA.  Cause, of course, he'll be a key component to losing 90+ the next couple years while our not so great farm system struggles to provide pitching we could have gotten in a trade for him.

Edited January 5, 2017 by jimmer

[snepp]

 

Dude reality check. When Harmon retired he was 5th all time on the homer list. I think you need to check the entirety of their careers.

 

He also retired something like 6th on the all-time walk list, posting fantastic OBP's throughout his career despite his batting average.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Home runs are still valued more than anything...

Any word on when your clients Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter will be signing this winter?

[CiabanItReal]

 

Any word on when your clients Mark Trumbo and Chris Carter will be signing this winter?

Or why the whitesox haven't found a trade partner for Todd Frazier?

[darin617]

My biggest pet peeve are people who cannot form their own comment and have to use someones quote to say something.

I hope the Twins don't have to take Calhoun in the deal. Get JDL, Alvarez, and Stewart and be happy.

[kellyvance]

 

Dude reality check. When Harmon retired he was 5th all time on the homer list. I think you need to check the entirety of their careers.

I wasn't comparing lifetime stats and I don't see how anyone can read my post as saying that. My point was that, in 1964, you don't trade the Killer for a bag full of magic beans and the same goes for Dozier. You seem to deliberately take it out of context. 

[kellyvance]

Those who denigrate Dozier's contributions ignore that he has been improving every year. Will he "revert to form" it is hard to say. But he has been on an upward trajectory for several years and deserves respect for that. Indications are that he is getting better, not worse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Those who denigrate Dozier's contributions ignore that he has been improving every year. Will he "revert to form" it is hard to say. But he has been on an upward trajectory for several years and deserves respect for that. Indications are that he is getting better, not worse.

How did he improve in 2015? Mind you, I am not denigrating Dozier, but you're resorting to some suspect arguments here.

 

To the extent that folks seem to be denigrating him, remember no one here is endorsing giving him away for De Leon alone. We just don't have anything else to talk about.

Edited January 6, 2017 by spycake

[Twins33]

I wasn't comparing lifetime stats and I don't see how anyone who is intellectually honest can read my post as saying that. My point was that, in 1964, you don't trade the Killer for a bag full of magic beans and the same goes for Dozier. You seem to deliberately take it out of context.

 

You never base a "to trade or not to trade" on one great season. Even only comparing one season of Killer vs one season of Dozier....it's completely unfair to Dozier.

 

Dozier was awesome for a good chunk of 2016, but he's only done that for one season. No one can expect him to do it again like it's a guarantee. It's not impossible, but shouldn't be expected. I expect 2013-2015 level Dozier for the next two years, which is an all star level player, but not as good as he was in 2016.

[kellyvance]

 

You never base a "to trade or not to trade" on one great season. Even only comparing one season of Killer vs one season of Dozier....it's completely unfair to Dozier.

Dozier was awesome for a good chunk of 2016, but he's only done that for one season. No one can expect him to do it again like it's a guarantee. It's not impossible, but shouldn't be expected. I expect 2013-2015 level Dozier for the next two years, which is an all star level player, but not as good as he was in 2016.

Dozier has gotten better the last 4 years. His HR totals are 18, 23, 28 and 42.  Like I said, steadily getting better. It isn't a one year thing, it is an upward trend.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't comparing lifetime stats and I don't see how anyone who is intellectually honest can read my post as saying that. My point was that, in 1964, you don't trade the Killer for a bag full of magic beans and the same goes for Dozier. You seem to deliberately take it out of context.

So they are very different players, with very different contract situations -- but somehow they are analogous?

 

There are plenty of valid arguments that Dozier is a fine player worthy of strong valuation in trade -- but Harmon Killebrew and 1964 don't figure into any of them.