Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier

[Cody Christie]

The Twins want some roster clarity as the calendar flips to 2017. According to a report from the Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III, "The club would like interested teams to step up with their best offer in the coming days, or they plan to prepare for the 2017 season with Dozier as their second baseman."

 

Trade rumors have been swirling around the Twins' face of the franchise after a monster season where he belted over 40 home runs. With two-years remaining on his contract at a team friendly price, there are multiple teams interested in acquiring the second baseman.

 

Here's a recap where things are when it comes to a Dozier deal.The Dodgers continue to be the team most likely best-suited to acquire Dozier. Los Angeles has a surplus of pitching prospects and a desire to win now. Jose De Leon's name is the one that has been most associated with the Twins. The right-handed pitching prospect was a top-25 prospect entering last season while making his MLB debut at age-23.

 

According to Neal, the Dodgers have been pushing for a straight Dozier for De Leon trade. The Twins have wanted the addition of another top prospect like first baseman Cody Bellinger or right-handed pitcher Yadier Alvarez. Los Angeles hasn't budged in their offer.

 

Other teams rumored to be interested are the Giants, Cardinals, and Braves. If the Giants want to work a deal, they would likely need to bring in a third team because their farm system doesn't have as many high caliber prospects. They also have Joe Panik to play second base so Dozier could need to move to third base, a position he has little experience playing.

 

Chatter surrounding the Cardinals interest in Dozier peaked last week when KSTP's Darren Wolfson reported that the Cardinals are "very much in it." However, the Cardinals might be hesitant to include their top prospects like right-handed pitcher Alex Reyes or catcher Carson Kelly. Some believe the Cardinals reported interest in Dozier was a ploy from the organization to get more value squeezed out of the Dodgers.

 

Washington was aggressive this off-season by trading multiple prospects to the White Sox to acquire Adam Eaton. This might leave them little in the tank when it comes to dealing for Dozier. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post said the Nationals "haven't made any serious inquiries on Twins' Dozier." She went on to say that there was "no natural fit there."

 

Atlanta has been working on their own rebuild so it doesn't seem likely that they would want to trade away top prospects for the remaining years on Dozier's contract. Dozier would help their current squad make strides in the right direction but their organization is built to win in the future, not in the present.

 

While the Dodger continue to seem to be the most likely fit, Los Angeles is going to have to up their offer for the Twins to take a deal. With multiple years remaining on his contract, the Twins could wait until the trade deadline and hope there are more teams willing to deal away their top talent. This would also require Dozier to continue to play the way he did in the second half.

 

Time might be running out on a Dozier deal.

 

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[Doomtints]

Making public ultimatums to your trade partners is bad business.  Good luck, guys.  You just made it harder to get this deal done and any other future deals done. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Doomtints

[KirbyDome89]

"The Twins could wait until the trade deadline and hope there are more teams willing to deal away their top talent. This would also require Dozier to continue to play the way he did in the second half"

 

Please lets not....

[chpettit19]

This is the front office's only move. It's been made pretty clear that the Dodgers are the only team interested in trading for Dozier. Nobody is being fooled by the Cardinals, Nats, Braves, or Giants talk. Those teams either don't have the prospects to make a deal or are in the same boat as the Twins and 2 years of Dozier isn't a need. The Twins have to get the Dodgers to become a little desperate somehow and this is the last card they have to play before the season actually starts. They need to convince the Dodgers they are more than ok keeping Dozier and really won't give him up for just 1 pitching prospect no matter how well regarded he is. I think this front office is smart enough to keep him if they don't get the deal they want. Unlike the Johan trade that was completed simply to do it. They will keep Dozier for as long as it takes to get a package worth dealing him for. If nothing gets done now you wait for the season and hope Dozier starts well and either somebody loses an infielder and gives something up for Dozier or the Dodgers continue to suck against lefties and they finally kick in one of their other well regarded guys. Getting De Leon straight up for Dozier would be a disaster of a trade.

[Obsvr]

 

The Twins have to get the Dodgers to become a little desperate somehow and this is the last card they have to play before the season actually starts. 

 

Anybody got a line on what Jeff Gillooly and/or Tanya Harding are up to these days?

[Squirrel]

Making public ultimatums to your trade partners is bad business.  Good luck, guys.  You just made it harder to get this deal done and any other future deals done.

 

I disagree. It's not an ultimatum at all. It's wanting to get it done because they need to move forward one way or another. It wouldn't be smart if they weren't prepared to walk away, but I think they are and always have been.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Making public ultimatums to your trade partners is bad business.  Good luck, guys.  You just made it harder to get this deal done and any other future deals done.

I'm not so sure of that. Baseball runs on a schedule and teams have to prepare for that schedule whether they plan to contend or not.

 

If two teams can't come to terms on something in six weeks, it's likely they will never come to terms on the matter. Drawing a soft line in the sand may not be a bad strategy.

 

It's not like the Twins are saying "Give me an offer right now or all deals are off the table."

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Making public ultimatums to your trade partners is bad business. Good luck, guys. You just made it harder to get this deal done and any other future deals done.

I disagree. It seems LA is waiting out MN because they know Dozier's value drops once the season starts. Moving on is OK if you aren't getting the right return

 

this was already part of the Dozier trade thread re: the LEN3 article.

[ashbury]

What about Jorge Polanco for Jose De Leon, more or less straight up?

[KGB]

I disagree. It seems LA is waiting out MN because they know Dozier's value drops once the season starts. Moving on is OK if you aren't getting the right return

this was already part of the Dozier trade thread re: the LEN3 article.

 

It's also possible DeLeon's value could drop. Prospects are not a guaranteed to increase in value. Dodgers would be gambling more than the Twins since their expectation for the year are World Series or bust.

[Oldgoat_MN]

What about Jorge Polanco for Jose De Leon, more or less straight up?

 

I cannot believe LA would do that. Polanco is not the big bat in general or the huge bat against LH pitching that Dozier is.

[Jordan1212]

I don't see us trading him we want 3 for 1 and that's not happening and I don't blame the twins we need more than 1 prospect Cuz that's all they are is prospects. But here's where I do blame the twins were gonna go into the season with the same pitching staff same bullpen same lineup YUCK! Maybe we should of traded 4 of our "prospects" for a real pitcher remember the days when Johan santana pitched we pretty much knew we were going to win now by the 3rd inning you gotta turn the game off Cuz were down 7-2 because all of our pitchers are the same throw the same 88 mph sinker our hitters average is .210 just so bad we are rebuilding because we have to 5.5 Era and .210 avg doesn't win many games

[AZTwin]

Yeah if we went by dodger fans logic we should trade Tyler jay, gonsalves and Daniel Palka for Clayton kershaw. I mean they love prospects. I would rather do that

[specialiststeve]

Interesting thing is how different writers are getting "inside" information from our new front office. Not sure what this means but they are definitely spreading the wealth of disinformation.

[youngpadawan]

I just struggle to understand how Dozier seems to have such little trade value. DeLeon does not really blow anyone away does he? I mean he looks like an OK prospect but they don't always pan out. Dother has hit 20+ homers several times in a row now. I don't get it.

[Kwak]

I think it's a game of "chicken". I disagree with the perception that the Dodgers are "the best fit." LA doesn't have to win the Series this year. They have the resources to win several times over many years. The "best fit" for the Twins is a team that whose "window" is closing and needs to act out of desperation (unlike LA which can be patient)--teams like KC, StL, SF, and Wash.

[NE Gopher]

I don't see how a deadline gets the Dodgers to move off their offer for a Dozier for De Leon 1 for 1 swap. They don't seem to want him bad enough to have offered more than this since the winter meetings.

 

This is not a fair return for Dozier but they are trying to see how desperate we are for pitching because they know he is the only trade chip we would really consider moving that would get a good return.

 

Dozier is not getting traded and the Dodgers will move on to Kinsler with either the same offer or less IMO

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

LA doesn't have to win the Series this year.

No, they don't, but the clock is ticking.

 

Clayton Kershaw is entering his age 29 season. After the conclusion of his age 30 season, he can opt out of his contract.

 

It's possible for the Dodgers to win without Kershaw but 8 WAR pitchers don't grow on trees and they don't remain 8 WAR pitchers indefinitely, even if you can keep them.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Atlanta has been working on their own rebuild so it doesn't seem likely that they would want to trade away top prospects for the remaining years on Dozier's contract. Dozier would help their current squad make strides in the right direction but their organization is built to win in the future, not in the present.

 

Sub Twins for Atlanta, and this is a good reason that Dozier needs to go

 

On the other hand, Atlanta is not on a rebuilding phase:  They have a brand new stadium that they need to start filling with rear ends, before it turns into the ghost town Target Field has been recently, and this means winning.  And signing two 40 year old free agents pitchers, extending one of their hottest commodities, getting the best FA UT in the market for a long term, going after older "value" players like John Danks, Rhiner Cruz and  does not signal rebuilding.  Check their starting OF, if you don't believe me.

 

Dozier would fit really nicely in that team, and the Braves have the young pitching to make it happen...

[Willihammer]

 

No, they don't, but the clock is ticking.

 

Clayton Kershaw is entering his age 29 season. After the conclusion of his age 30 season, he can opt out of his contract.

 

It's possible for the Dodgers to win without Kershaw but 8 WAR pitchers don't grow on trees and they don't remain 8 WAR pitchers indefinitely, even if you can keep them.

You also have to wonder how many seasons Friedman can finish with a first round exit due to perceived lack of going all in. I dunno, maybe LA fans are more forgiving than other big markets (NY) but I would assume the leash is shorter for him than say, a TR.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Willihammer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I dunno, maybe LA fans are more forgiving than other big markets (NY) but I would assume the leash is shorter for him than say, a TR.

They're not. Maybe they're not quite as rabid as east coast fans but SoCal fans are not particularly forgiving, particularly when it comes to the Dodgers (which is LA's "first team", the Angels get a bit more slack).

[Otto von Ballpark]

No, they don't, but the clock is ticking.

 

Clayton Kershaw is entering his age 29 season. After the conclusion of his age 30 season, he can opt out of his contract.

 

It's possible for the Dodgers to win without Kershaw but 8 WAR pitchers don't grow on trees and they don't remain 8 WAR pitchers indefinitely, even if you can keep them.

Urias is probably as good a bet as any to ascend to that plateau next.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You also have to wonder how many seasons Friedman can finish with a first round exit due to perceived lack of going all in. I dunno, maybe LA fans are more forgiving than other big markets (NY) but I would assume the leash is shorter for him than say, a TR.

FWIW, the Dodgers didn't exit in the first round this year; they actually took the NLCS to 6 games against the eventual champion Cubs.

[Willihammer]

Looked it up- Friedman is under contract through 2019. 

 

Also saw that he has never traded a top 5 prospects. I assume that is organizational prospect.

 

And it appears he prefers to trade prospects acquired via trade instead of ones he drafted/signed.

 

I just have to wonder if he is the right guy for that market. I guess I'll believe it when either they win a WS his way or he makes an actual big market, top prospects for top talent trade a la Epstein, Dombrowski, etc.

[Seth Stohs]

If you're on twitter, be sure to take this poll: 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Urias is probably as good a bet as any to ascend to that plateau next.

Very true but that may put even more pressure on the Dodgers in the short term. An emergent Urias along with Kershaw make Dozier even more appealing for two years.

[doscinco]

"I just have to wonder if he is the right guy for that market. I guess I'll believe it when either they win a WS his way or he makes an actual big market, top prospects for top talent trade a la Epstein, Dombrowski, etc."

 

Detroit is going to have a long ugly rebuild because Dombrowski went for it at every deadline. They also didn't win anything.

[Kwak]

Ability to support a $200MM payroll means LA can be patient. NYY haven't "won it" since '09 and they don't appear to be panicky. Kershaw is a great pitcher--but they can afford several of them as well as several top hitters. It won't be necessary to win every other year like SF did. One Series win will sate the beasts for quite a while.

[Riverbrian]

Andrew Friedman

 

The guy came from Wall Street... Schooled and practiced in Positive Arbitrage. The guy gets up in the morning just so he can acquire players for less than they worth. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It's also possible DeLeon's value could drop. Prospects are not a guaranteed to increase in value. Dodgers would be gambling more than the Twins since their expectation for the year are World Series or bust.

timeline for De Leon's peak is further out that Dozier's current contract. That's not to say it won't drop, just that we won't know for a while.

 

Agreed Dodgers have a finite window of opportunity and a lot at risk. It's not every season or every decade that a team can be in LA's shoes where you are legit World Series contenders with only one hole and that one hole glares so badly and they have a tailor made fit for a trade like this. Im impressed w/ Friedman to not just throw prospects around like candy to get Dozier.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Sconnie