Article: 2016 Report Cards: Rotation

[Nick Nelson]

Earlier this week, we published reviews of all the position players on the 2016 Minnesota Twins. Even on a 103-loss club, numerous individuals received above-average grades, and that felt fitting for a respectable offensive unit that scored the most runs of any Minnesota team since 2010.

 

Today we'll break down the rotation, where things were significantly less rosy.For our position player rundown, you can find infielders here and outfielders here. As we turn our gaze to starting pitching, the criteria will be at least five starts, and still in the organization. Off we go...

 

Jose Berrios, RHP

2016 Stats: 58.1 IP, 3-7, 8.02 ERA, 49 K, 35 BB, 1.87 WHIP, 6.20 FIP

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

 

The stuff was there. You can say that much for Berrios in his rookie season. The overpowering potential of his pitches was on full display as he whipped lively 94 MPH fastballs and broke off diving offspeeds.

 

That's the extent of positivity, though, and it's not even all that positive because the 22-year-old's electric arsenal was useless to him in practical terms. Whether it was nerves, mechanical issues, highly selective hitters, or some combination of all those things... he simply could not command any of his offerings. Berrios constantly fell behind in the count, leading to an endless barrage of walks, hits and home runs. He recorded only one quality start in 14 tries, and it met the lowest possible standard for the statistic (6 IP, 3 ER).

 

Berrios has dominated every level of the minor leagues – including some eye-popping numbers at Triple-A – and was among the youngest players to throw a pitch in the majors this year. In the big picture, there isn't much reason for alarm. But there's no way around it: his rookie campaign was an unrelenting disaster.

 

2016 Grade: F

 

2017 Outlook: Berrios is certainly a wild-card in Minnesota's rotation plans. They need to at least tentatively carve out a rotation spot for him, because it makes little sense to send him back to Rochester unless he has a crummy spring. But given how he finished – completely out of sorts and bewildered – that's not exactly an unthinkable scenario.

 

Tyler Duffey, RHP

2016 Stats: 133 IP, 9-12, 6.43 ERA, 114 K, 32 BB, 1.50 WHIP, 4.73 FIP

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

 

Arriving with gusto in the second half of 2015, Duffey was a huge bright spot down the stretch, delivering consistently sterling outings following a clunker debut in Toronto. Enthusiasm was tempered, though, as we wondered how long he could survive as a starter with a two-pitch repertoire.

 

Opposing lineups, now more familiar with his limited attack plan, came better prepared this time around. Hitters increasingly laid off his curve and keyed on a completely unexceptional fastball. He spent most of the year in the big leagues but rarely strung together consecutive decent starts. His strikeout and walks rates weren't bad, but at the end of the day Duffey was simply too hittable.

 

2016 Grade: D-

 

2017 Outlook: Given his enduring ineffectiveness as a starter throughout the summer, it's inexplicable that the Twins didn't take a look at the former collegiate closer in the bullpen late in the year. Perhaps the new regime will have a different take on Duffey, who can undoubtedly be a weapon in some form.

 

Kyle Gibson, RHP

2016 Stats: 147.1 IP, 11-11, 5.07 ERA, 104 K, 55 BB, 1.56 WHIP, 4.70 FIP

Contract Status: Under contract for 2017 for ~$2.5M (arbitration estimate)

 

The model for a competitive Twins team in 2016 was, in large part, reliant on Gibson and Ervin Santana being steady staples atop the rotation. One didn't hold up his end of the bargain. Gibson got off to a sluggish start, missed the entire month of May with a shoulder strain, and never put together any particularly strong stretches after returning.

 

Did that injury, along with back and leg ailments he reported at various points, affect the righty on the mound? It sure looks that way. Gibson took a major step backward after steadily improving during his first three big-league seasons. He flashed diminished velocity on each of his pitches. His signature sinker lacked the requisite movement, contributing to a career-low 48.8 percent grounder rate and a career-high 20 home runs allowed.

 

When he's on his game Gibson has the formula for reliably solid, if unspectacular pitching results. But his game was amiss this year. Like so many others on the Twins and around the world, the 29-year-old is no doubt eager to put 2016 behind him.

 

2016 Grade: D

 

2017 Outlook: He's earned enough cred within this organization that he'll have a fairly secure hold on a rotation spot even coming off a lackluster campaign. Unless his health continues to deteriorate, Gibson will surely be better next year. But how much better?

 

Phil Hughes, RHP

2016 Stats: 59 IP, 1-7, 5.95 ERA, 34 K, 13 BB, 1.51 WHIP, 5.08 FIP

Contract Status: Signed through 2019 for $39.6 million

 

Gibson's 2016 campaign might have been sabotaged to some degree by physical setbacks, but he's got nothing on Hughes.

 

It was evident during the previous season that Hughes' arm strength was dwindling, and unfortunately his focused winter regimen did nothing to stem the tide.

 

Hughes was an elite control artist during his first two years in Minnesota, with an MLB-best 0.79 BB/9 rate. His ability to locate and stay in the zone has remained intact more or less, but this year, as the quality of his pitches continued to decline, his results followed suit.

 

Batters teed off on lukewarm heaters and flat cutters. Many days, it was clear that a laboring Hughes was attempting to get by on nothing but guile and luck. In mid-May he pulled himself from his best performance of the season at 75 pitches, complaining of fatigue. It wasn't long afterward that the right-hander was shut down, subsequently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.

 

I do admire Hughes for toughing it out and taking the ball while his body betrayed him. It's just a shame that the coaching staff didn't take the decision out of his hands sooner, amidst the obvious reality that his bum shoulder was preventing him from being able to compete.

 

Grade: F

 

2017 Outlook: By the time he reports for spring training in February. Hughes will be nearly eight months removed from his operation, which typically has a 4-6 month recovery timetable. He should be back to full strength; it's just unclear what full strength means for him at this point. The 30-year-old is in an ambiguous spot with a range of possible outcomes that spans from front-end starter (as he was in 2014) to relief pitcher to total non-factor.

 

Ervin Santana, RHP

2016 Stats: 181.1 IP, 7-11, 3.38 ERA, 149 K, 53 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.81 FIP

Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $28 million

 

Santana is a breath of fresh air on this list, and he certainly was that for the Twins rotation. It's difficult to imagine how unsightly this unit would have been if not for the welcome respite of Big Erv going every fifth day. While the pitching staff collapsed around him, Santana enjoyed one of the better seasons of his career, gobbling up quality innings from start to finish with a brief disabled stint in late April representing his only absence.

 

The veteran righty was particularly excellent during the second half, posting a 2.43 ERA in the final three months while the club faded into oblivion. During that span, he allowed more than three earned runs only once in 16 starts. In a year where every other Twins starter brought his worst, Santana brought his best.

 

Grade: B+

 

2017 Outlook: He'll be the Opening Day starter without a doubt, barring an unlikely trade. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of his peak 2016 performance but Santana can certainly be a mid-rotation stalwart on a good team.

 

Hector Santiago, LHP

2016 Stats (w/ Twins): 61.1 IP, 5.58 ERA, 37 K, 22 BB, 1.42 WHIP, 5.82 FIP

Contract Status: Under contract for 2017 for ~$8.0 million (arbitration estimate)

 

While Santana was able to avoid the contagious ineptitude that struck the Twins rotation in 2016, another former Angel was not so lucky. Santiago was enjoying a solid season, and a highly impressive hot streak, when he was traded to Minnesota at the deadline. But when he went north, his numbers went south.

 

Santiago's poor overall numbers with the Twins were largely the result of an outrageously bad first four starts, as he settled in with a 3.19 ERA over his final seven turns. But even then, his K/BB ratio was unimpressive and his success hardly convincing.

 

Grade: D-

 

2017 Outlook: The Twins appear poised to run with Santiago in his final year of arbitration, even though the price tag will be quite high following such a poor showing. His track record merits another look and there's little reason to think the southpaw can't return to being a serviceable starter. Perhaps a good first half would generate trade interest at the deadline.

 

Click here to view the article

[Pardon My Dinger]

Tough but fair.

[Lefty74]

Using this grading curve I think you need to re-think the inflield and outfield grades. I don't necessarily disagree with the pitching grades, however in comparison the others are way too optimistic.

[Lefty74]

Using this grading curve I think you need to re-think the inflield and outfield grades. I don't necessarily disagree with the pitching grades, however in comparison the others are way too optimistic.

 

3 examples-

Polanco--B

Sano--B-

Vargas--B

 

[operation mindcrime]

Tyler Duffey was an F imho! \m/

[Rhino and Compass]

To be fair, for some of these guys, it's not their fault that they are in the majors. No other team would let Tyler Duffey get abused like that all season. 

[Jordan1212]

How can you grade Duffy ahead of Berrios? Let alone Gibson or Santiago none of them guys ever looked like berrios with the 95mph fastball and a nasty breaking ball yea he has alot of work to do just like Johan did but he is going to be better than Gibson and Santiago combined. Ervin is a mirage he is a 4+ Era guy just like any of our pitchers that's why I would trade him to we lost 103 games it's not like we can really get much worse

[HitInAPinch]

eyes firmly covered......

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure what Santana has to do to get a better grade.  Results wise, he was right around top 30 in baseball.  He's getting penalized because everyone else put in 50 shades of awful seasons...

 

I'd probably swap Berrios and Duffey's grades. Duffy had some major league success that indicated he should have done a whole lot better than he did. Yeah, he was a regression candidate, but he went from being very good to completely hitable.  Berrios on the other hand was an unknown. We griped when he got sent down, but reality was he wasn't ready, and the front office knew it. Regardless, expectations for him should have been lower... not saying he out performed them, but that I'd be a bit more lenient there given his age/experience.

[Mike Sixel]

How can you grade Duffy ahead of Berrios? Let alone Gibson or Santiago none of them guys ever looked like berrios with the 95mph fastball and a nasty breaking ball yea he has alot of work to do just like Johan did but he is going to be better than Gibson and Santiago combined. Ervin is a mirage he is a 4+ Era guy just like any of our pitchers that's why I would trade him to we lost 103 games it's not like we can really get much worse

You realize these are grades for what they did last year, right? Not the future, last year.

 

Nick, spot on.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed w/ Mike, spot on Nick.

 

If Dozier isn't traded I'm not very optimistic for the rotation.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Sconnie

[Dantes929]

I thought Santiago was judged a little harshly.    5 of his last 7 starts were pretty good to very good and he really wasn't with us all that long.   I am not so sure Duffey was "figured out".    To me he definitely didn't have the same command of his fast ball which he needed to complement his off speed stuff by which I mean all his various curve balls.   His curve ball also didn't have the same bite or variations that we saw in 2015.    I compared Duffey to Blyleven in 2015 and have no regrets.    What made Blyleven special wasn't that he had the best fastball or even the best curveball.  Rather it was that he had a decent fastball with good control and an above average curve ball with good control for 20+ years.   Duffey had that in 2015.  He did not have it in 2016.   IMO, the results were less that batters figured him out and more that he did not execute the pitches as well.   

[Nick Nelson]

 

Using this grading curve I think you need to re-think the inflield and outfield grades. I don't necessarily disagree with the pitching grades, however in comparison the others are way too optimistic.

 

Polanco--B
Sano--B-
Vargas--B

Could you explain why you feel those grades are inaccurate relative to these ones? Each of the three players you mentioned was an above-average hitter. Meanwhile every starter other than Santana was far below average. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think I find these grades more tolerable when I look them only as assessments of what was done with no context for expectations or anything else. 

[Vote for Gardy]

I'm ready to give up on Gibson nice guy but it's been 3 years and it's the same thing and I don't see it changing. 5 innings if lucky with alot of pitches and trying make every pitch perfect and giving up 4 runs or more with the occasional brilliant start. I can see Hughes and Santiago having good years but am curious about Mejia. We've seen Duffey be an ace type pitcher for a stretch two years ago and think he can be a very good pitcher. There is no way the pitching can be as bad as last year.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'm not sure what Santana has to do to get a better grade.  Results wise, he was right around top 30 in baseball.  He's getting penalized because everyone else put in 50 shades of awful seasons...

There's a fair argument to be made for an A-. But his numbers outside of ERA were all very much in line with his norms, and he fell well short of 200 innings. By his standards I would say it was a very good season but not the kind of career year that gets you into the A range IMO. 

[Halsey Hall]

These grades look pretty accurate to me.  I might give Santana an A, he gutted out a lot of innings when he didn't have squat for pitches.  I'd give him an A+ for effort, far ahead of all but Hughes who just folded up after bad early innings.

[Vanimal46]

We need Brock to provide analysis on his favorite pitcher, Pat Dean.

[mikelink45]

Yes - they have to stick with Berrios, but you are right he is an F and so is Duffey and Gibson.  Duffey may have some value with his fabulous curve ball but the team needs to know how to use it and he still has the same pitching coach!  Gibson has been around to long to excuse his performance and give him anything more than an F - how many winning teams would have had him in their rotation?

 

Yes - Hughes is an F and like the three above him the same pitching coach who got so much out of him last year is still there.  I was really hoping Hughes would keep some value after his amazing standout season.

 

Santana is an A - I know he is mid-rotation on another team, but it does not lessen the contributions that he made to this outrageous contingent. 

 

The fact that Santiago had a decent 7 game streak after learning to ignore the suggestions of the Twins coach gives him a C- in my grading system.

 

Now ideally 2017 will see us trade Santana even though he is by far the best on the roster and bring in some more minor league strength and hopefully Gibson and Santiago will get off to a decent start and we will flip them too.   Hughes, with his contract, will remain ours.  By the second half of 2017 I hope to see a very young rotation and improved coaching so we can really build all our young players for a break out 2018.  I am not interested in a .500 team even though that would seem to be a big improvement. 

[mikelink45]

 

To be fair, for some of these guys, it's not their fault that they are in the majors. No other team would let Tyler Duffey get abused like that all season. 

You could be right on this and if he were with the Pirates, for example, they would hav coached him and built on the talents he does have.  But for grading purposes you have to look at what did happen.

[Broker]

Yep, definitely less rosy.

[Thrylos]

Hard time giving Santana a B+

 

He only pitched 181 innings and his peripherals were average and he had a losing record (I know, wins and losses do not matter, but B+ means a stopper to me, which Santana was not.)   He managed a very good ERA, which is the only thing his way.

 

If he were like 230 IP with the same ERA and a .500 record, I'd think about a B+.  More like a B- right now...

 

He was way ahead of the rest of the Twins' pitchers, but that does not mean much

 

Few others missing, like Ricky Nolasco, Pat Dean & Tommy Milone, all of whom pitched more innings than Berrios last season

Edited December 30, 2016 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hard time giving Santana a B+

 

He only pitched 181 innings and his peripherals were average and he had a losing record (I know, wins and losses do not matter, but B+ means a stopper to me, which Santana was not.)   He managed a very good ERA, which is the only thing his way.

 

If he were like 230 IP with the same ERA and a .500 record, I'd think about a B+.  More like a B- right now...

 

He was way ahead of the rest of the Twins' pitchers, but that does not mean much

 

Few others missing, like Ricky Nolasco, Pat Dean & Tommy Milone, all of whom pitched more innings than Berrios last season

 

B-.....even though less than 40 SPs probably really outdid him last year? Not sure I agree.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Few others missing, like Ricky Nolasco, Pat Dean & Tommy Milone, all of whom pitched more innings than Berrios last season

"As we turn our gaze to starting pitching, the criteria will be at least five starts, and still in the organization."

[Lefty74]

Could you explain why you feel those grades are inaccurate relative to these ones? Each of the three players you mentioned was an above-average hitter. Meanwhile every starter other than Santana was far below average.

 

The main reason is overall value. Polanco had a WAR of -0.1, Sano 1.3 and Vargas, 0.6. Much of the reason for Polanco's low WAR was due to defense, same for Sano. In Vargas' case I just don't see 0.6 being a B. I understand that WAR needs to be taken with a grain (or many) of salt, but I really think that Polanco and Sano need to deliver in the field as well as the plate.

[Thrylos]

 

B-.....even though less than 40 SPs probably really outdid him last year? Not sure I agree.

 

45th in IP is the big one for me.  FWIW, I'd probably grade Kershaw as a B+ this season because he did not pitch so much, even though he was great when he pitched.  A is Cy Young conversation, so about 10 guys or so.  I would also great Johan Santana's 2007 (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 219 IP) as a B+

 

So if Kershaw's 2016 and Johan Santana's 2007 are B+, what should E. Santana's 2016 be?

(52nd FIP, 37th ERA, t109th in  Wins, low K% etc also pull him down)

 

I think that B+ is a super high grade in general, just a hair below Cy Young consideration and Santana was not there...

 

[Doomtints]

I'm not sure I would give Berrios an F for looking just like May and Meyer when they arrived. This is too much of a coincidence for it to not be the team's fault. All of these guys should be tossing with lower velocity until they learn better control, which means they should not have been called to the majors. This is on the Twins.

 

As for Duffey, he was put in the rotation for some spot starts because the Twins had no one else. He performed well and Molitor said he'd keep him in the rotation as long as he performed.  Well, he stopped performing. Duffey would be a great bullpen arm and that's where he needs to be. 

 

I agree with the others that there is a strong argument to give Santana an A-. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Doomtints

[DocBauer]

You can call me crazy, but I'm a little bit excited about the 2017 rotation. And no, not because it couldn't be any worse, (although that is true), or because I think its going to suddenly be good.

 

I'm excited because I truly believe a healthy Gibson will look like his 2015 self. Because Santiago pitched better down the stretch when they quit messing with him. Because now that he got his feet wet, I want to see what Berrios will do. Because I like May in the rotation. Because I'm curious to see if and when Hughes can make it back. Because if Dozier is traded I want to see the SP candidate(s) they bring in.

 

The grades here are sound and fair. But I'm really excited to see what changes for 2017. And the truth is...it really couldn't be any worse.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Brutal. It's hard to disagree with you. Everyone could have been given an F except for Santana.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The main reason is overall value. Polanco had a WAR of -0.1, Sano 1.3 and Vargas, 0.6. Much of the reason for Polanco's low WAR was due to defense, same for Sano. In Vargas' case I just don't see 0.6 being a B. I understand that WAR needs to be taken with a grain (or many) of salt, but I really think that Polanco and Sano need to deliver in the field as well as the plate.

Polanco isn't an SS. Sano isn't an RF. They don't dictate where they play in the field so I cut them a little slack. 

 

I guess you could make a similar argument for Duffey being miscast as a reliever, except that he's pitched pretty much exclusively as a starter for the past four years so for the time he's judged upon that. 

As for Vargas, I put a lot of stock into the patience and power. As a guy whose value is going to be almost solely vested in his offensive production, that's big. You can make a case that he should have been dinged more for the high K-rate and .230 average but to me an .833 OPS in spite of that is all the more impressive.