Article: 2016 Report Cards: Outfield

[Mike Sixel]

 

Obviously in doing something like this there is a lot of subjectivity, but I really wonder how much the exercise is worth when we say "The offense was average, so the grades should be average too"

 

Well, maybe.  But some of the guys we are tossing Bs at in this were talked about as MVP candidates.  Or guys that would be with the club all year long and weren't.  Or guys that had ups and downs.

 

I have a hard time giving anyone on this team better than a B.  Dozier doesn't even go higher than that because he was a miserable suckfest of a black hole in our lineup for the first two months.

 

It's....whatever.  This is all an exercise in our down time and all that, but I think we're a few months past the trauma of the 2016 season and we've somehow forgotten just how bad it was.

 

I can't imagine anyone has forgotten how bad it was.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I can't imagine anyone has forgotten how bad it was.

 

And yet our report cards have been solidly B/C........

[Mike Sixel]

 

And yet our report cards have been solidly B/C........

 

He did say "wait for the pitching"....and the Twins were 16th in runs scored, only 30 from 10th. That sounds like a C to me.

[jharaldson]

 

Well, expectations and context come into play to some extent. The standards are a little different here.

 

Not a guy in this bunch had a season with 500 MLB plate appearances before this year. I don't think it'd be a very interesting exercise if I gave everyone D's because they fall very short of being Mike Trout.

 

He was our starting right fielder for much of the season so my expectations are that he is comparable to other starting right fielders in the league.  The average RF in 2016 had a .752 OPS while Kepler had a .734 OPS, slightly below average.  If you just compare him to RF who had over 400 PA he ranks 29th out of 33, well below average.  Looking at his defense the eye test tells me he made a number of stupid looking plays last year.  The numbers back this up a bit with his defense runs above average coming in at -5.4 and his UZR was -.7, both below average.

 

Given that he had both below average offense and defense for his role I would grade him in the D/D+/C- range without using unrealistic comps like Trout.

 

Since he is 23 I can see a very reasonable argument that this shows some promise for 2017 because he is still in the growth part of his career so he could rise to average or above average next year but that optimism should not change the realistic evaluation of his 2016 performance.

[TheLeviathan]

 

He did say "wait for the pitching"....and the Twins were 16th in runs scored, only 30 from 10th. That sounds like a C to me.

 

Perhaps, but when people say we are also factoring in "expectations" I think that drops it a bit.  C/D sounds better and we're closer to a weak B at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Perhaps, but when people say we are also factoring in "expectations" I think that drops it a bit.  C/D sounds better and we're closer to a weak B at this point.

 

Interesting. If I factor in expectations, I'd probably raise it a bit, as my expectations were pretty low for the OF group. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Interesting. If I factor in expectations, I'd probably raise it a bit, as my expectations were pretty low for the OF group. 

 

Really?  Hmmm, for me Buxton sort of makes/breaks this group.  Also, I'm sort of merging this and the infield thread as I'm commenting since they are both about the offense and defense more or less.

 

I also think we inadequately factored in defense in a lot of this.  (Which was also quite bad)

[Mike Sixel]

The defense was really bad, but that was largely before Buxton, Kepler, Rosario played every day. The catching and 3B and SS were, admittedly, suspect. And any time Grossman or DanSan played, ouch.

[Squirrel]

And yet our report cards have been solidly B/C........

Not 'ours' ... one person's.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not 'ours' ... one person's.

 

Was speaking about us as a warm and fuzzy collective,

 

But you're right, I take issue with Nick's grades for the reasons above.  I think they're generally too bullish, even for the offense.

[Squirrel]

Was speaking about us as a warm and fuzzy collective,

 

But you're right, I take issue with Nick's grades for the reasons above.  I think they're generally too bullish, even for the offense.

Heh, yes, such a warm and fuzzy collective we all are.

[Craig Arko]

Heh, yes, such a warm and fuzzy collective we all are.

I'm both warm and fuzzy. But not assimilated.

[Vanimal46]

 

Heh, yes, such a warm and fuzzy collective we all are.

I'm cranky from throwing out my back and not getting enough sleep. What's everyone else's excuse?

[Craig Arko]

I'm cranky from throwing out my back and not getting enough sleep. What's everyone else's excuse?

2016.

[Tibs]

I struggle giving Grossman a B because of how incredibly horrendous his defense was when I was able to watch. His offense is great, but his defense is like the kid you stick in the outfield and pray to God the ball doesn't find him. I couldn't believe I was watching a professional baseball player when I saw him out in the field.

 

I am very excited for an outfield of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler next year however.

[jud6312]

 

Grossman a B, and Kepler a B-? Grossman with a case to be the starting LF, or the DH? While not having RG in LF anymore would make TD GT far less entertaining, I will be more than happy to suffer that withdrawal. In the Old West, some towns made you check your guns on entering the city limits. I feel that policy should also extend to Robbie's fielding gloves at the Ft. Myers border. Btw, I apologize for using the words "fielding" and "gloves" in the same sentence with regards to RG. . And as for DH? When you have a hitter who's main weapon is drawing walks, and not doing much damage to strikes, it doesn't take long for MLB pitchers to narrow their zone.

All of this. All of this x 1,000.

 

Robbie lived up to, or possibly surpassed, the expectations placed on him as Baseball Prospectus' #76 prospect of 2012, but nothing he did (in my mind) puts him in consideration for a starting spot. Barring multiple injuries.

 

His "defense" is comical, his arm not much better, and while he does draw a number of walks, he also strikes out a bunch. I can live with strikeouts if there's a ceiling of high run production there. With Rob, I think we saw his absolute ceiling last year.

[Platoon]

I also thought the grading was too high. Someone above me made a point that even Doziers grade was high due to his two month black hole. I kind of go back to RG. If he is a B, then Sano and yours truly should be taking fly balls this winter. We can run lousy routes with the best of them, although at my age bending over, running, and stepping on my own glove would be difficult. . I only wish my teachers had graded like this. It would have likely elevated me into the upper 75 percentile!

[jud6312]

The only grades I'd probably disagree with here are Grossman - I'd go C+ given his defensive struggles (putting it lightly) and the high number of Ks in relation to run production.

 

The other one is Santana's F.

 

Do we have to use a typical K-12 grading scale for him, or can we just give him a Z and call it a day?

[Mike Sixel]

 

The only grades I'd probably disagree with here are Grossman - I'd go C+ given his defensive struggles (putting it lightly) and the high number of Ks in relation to run production.

 

The other one is Santana's F.

 

Do we have to use a typical K-12 grading scale for him, or can we just give him a Z and call it a day?

 

And yet, he is still on the 40 man. 

[jud6312]

 

And yet, he is still on the 40 man. 

He's a gamer? Do we still say that as a compliment or is that gone with the old regime?

[Vanimal46]

He's a gamer? Do we still say that as a compliment or is that gone with the old regime?

Can't teach grit or battling your tail off...

[Vanimal46]

All of this. All of this x 1,000.

 

Robbie lived up to, or possibly surpassed, the expectations placed on him as Baseball Prospectus' #76 prospect of 2012, but nothing he did (in my mind) puts him in consideration for a starting spot. Barring multiple injuries.

 

His "defense" is comical, his arm not much better, and while he does draw a number of walks, he also strikes out a bunch. I can live with strikeouts if there's a ceiling of high run production there. With Rob, I think we saw his absolute ceiling last year.

Concur. Robbie was a fine waiver wire claim and provided a spark when most of the team struggled to put the ball in play. I also believe last year was his ceiling... He was hovering ~.700 OPS prior to last season's explosion of .828 OPS.

 

He would need to continue to be an .800+ OPS guy from here on out to provide much value. We're certainly not going to see value with his fielding abilities.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Do we have to use a typical K-12 grading scale for him, or can we just give him a Z and call it a day?

If Santana gets a Z, then Grossman gets a Zzzzzzzzzz.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Well, maybe.  But some of the guys we are tossing Bs at in this were talked about as MVP candidates.  Or guys that would be with the club all year long and weren't.  Or guys that had ups and downs.

I'm less interested in what the overly optimistic local expectations were, and more concerned with what the objective outside expectations were.

For instance, look at the ZiPS projections before this year.

They pegged Buxton at .266/.310/.405. He met that .715 OPS almost exactly. I gave him a bump to the low B range because his defense was truly tremendous and his final month was off the charts. ZiPS had Kepler at .252/.310/.396. He exceeded his OPS projection by a healthy margin. I gave him bonus points for delivering some unforgettable single-game performances, and for the fact that he was able to accumulate 450 PA at all. The kid hadn't played a game above Double-A in the minors entering this year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm less interested in what the overly optimistic local expectations were, and more concerned with what the objective outside expectations were.

For instance, look at the ZiPS projections before this year.

They pegged Buxton at .266/.310/.405. He met that .715 OPS almost exactly. I gave him a bump to the low B range because his defense was truly tremendous and his final month was off the charts. ZiPS had Kepler at .252/.310/.396. He exceeded his OPS projection by a healthy margin. I gave him bonus points for delivering some unforgettable single-game performances, and for the fact that he was able to accumulate 450 PA at all. The kid hadn't played a game above Double-A in the minors entering this year.

 

Some of those locally optimistic expectations belonged to you......*cough* MVP *cough*

[Nick Nelson]

 

Some of those locally optimistic expectations belonged to you......*cough* MVP *cough*

haha, hey I'm not denying it.

 

I still confident it'll happen with Sano at some point. We'll treat the timetable on that prediction like Dave's 24-hour window for the Dozier trade... 

[TheLeviathan]

 

haha, hey I'm not denying it.

 

I still confident it'll happen with Sano at some point. We'll treat the timetable on that prediction like Dave's 24-hour window for the Dozier trade... 

 

Relatively speaking, let's hope it's much quicker that that!

[snepp]

Relatively speaking, let's hope it's much quicker that that!

First geriatric MVP in MLB history?

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

First geriatric MVP in MLB history?
 

 

I was leaning posthumous.  You optimist, you.

[DJSim22]

 

Rosario's swing rate dropped marginally last year, but his contact rate dropped along with it.  His WAR also dropped but that was mostly due to his defense also taking a step back.

 

I'm not sure what to think of Rosario at this point, but one thing is for certain:  He needs to perform in 2017 unless he wants to be a bench player for the rest of his career. 

Buxton still needs to prove himself.  Many times us fans have felt that Buxton turned the corner after performing well for a short period of time.  After his strong finish to 2016 we are doing that again.  His OPS+ is right there with Rosario, who was given a C grade.  Buxton needs to put together 2-3 consecutive good months for me to be convinced that he has turned the corner. 

 

Kepler's production fell over a cliff down the stretch.  But we should not be worried about that -- he outperformed expectations as a rookie and had a great July.  There are no signs that he will regress in 2017. 

 

Grossman, Santana:  Who cares.  Neither of them are the future of the team.  Grossman hit very well in 2016 (and, in spite of what people say, his production did NOT get worse as the year went on), but it's difficult to believe he won't regress.  His defense is terrible and a liability so he should not be the 4th outfielder, and the Twins have better options as bench bats.  Grossman profiles as the typical White Sox player.  As for Santana, I'm not convinced that his injuries have not been the source of his problems.  The drop off he has experienced from 2014 is steep.  Be that as it may, unless he pulls a Nunez this year he won't last long with the team ... and Nunez's turnaround was somewhat predictable.  Santana doesn't look like he has such a turnaround in him.

 

I agree with most of this, but am perplexed at who the better bench bats are than Grossman?  Do you really trust Park, Vargas, ect to take a quality at bat in a big spot over Grossman?