Article: Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier

[70charger]

 

No offense, but has Doogie ever been correct in his life?  

 

[DaveW]

Wong isn't terrible Dave. He's just incredibly average. Last year his power went down a bit, but he almost doubled his walk rate and his K% decreased slightly. And his defense is above average. He's a perfectly reasonable 2 to 2.5 WAR Second Basemen. Although its not clear where he would fit for the Twins given Polanco. More likely, the Twins would try to flip him. And anyway, its not clear the Twins would get/want Wong back.

 

That being said, I agree that the Dodgers remain the most likely destination for Dozier.

Terrible was a bit rough, my bad.

 

But he doesn't have the upside IMO and has no reason being on a rebuilding club.

[DaveW]

Wong is fine defensively and did not have his best year last year. He's not Dozier, but I wouldn't call him terrible either. If you want a better defense, he is an upgrade imo. Not sure what the metrics say,.

Fair enough, I thought he was worse defensively for some reason.

[goulik]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

 

Nats part of this definitely sounding like spin. Would cards or Giants have interest in Santana and could Santana be part of a " creative" trade? Just me wondering out loud but too lazy tonight to look at rosters...

[cmoss84]

I would be shocked if the Dodgers gave up Urias. I wouldn't be shocked if the cards gave up Reyes. They are looking up at the cubs in their own division. They need power. The juice may be worth the squeeze for them.

[darin617]

 

I don't understand why people think that the Twins would want Kolton Wong. With all the options the Twins have I can't understand why they would want Wong.

 

The Cards would like to dump him on the Twins in a Dozier deal. Maybe a change of scenery could turn him around.

[drivlikejehu]

There is no reason to block Polanco with Wong. Zero upside for the Twins there. The bigger question is whether the Cardinals can move him if they acquire Dozier - Wong's contract doesn't look real rosy these days. They could use Wong as a utility player, and did start him in the outfield 11 times last year (and he played outfield in 8 other games), but they've never used him at an infield position other than 2B. 

 

The thing is, at a high level, Dozier makes a lot more sense for the Cardinals than he does the Dodgers. For one thing, St. Louis doesn't have an unlimited payroll and really broke the bank last year, only to miss the playoffs. Dozier's affordability is a bigger deal to them than the LAD, even if the Dodgers notionally would like to cut their luxury tax bill.

 

The Cardinals also occupy a much more precarious place than the Dodgers in terms of competitiveness. The Dodgers are already one of the two best teams in baseball, and their farm system will allow them to upgrade at the deadline as needed. The Cardinals are huge underdogs in their division, which is bad enough given the revised Wild Card, and still have to worry about the Pirates, plus the strong possibility of solid 2nd place finishers in the East and West.

 

The team that could really use Dozier is the Royals, not that it would happen. 

[The Wise One]

I wonder if Doogie has the same source as Dave? Skepticism of any of these "sources" is warranted as a baseball executives really don't talk all that much to the general public about deals and dealings in general.

[Oxtung]

My read here is that the Twins don't like the current offer on the table from the Dodgers and are "leaking" information hoping to drive up the Dodger return. I think they have probably had some preliminary discussions with the Cardinals/Giants/Nats but they didn't go far because there really isn't a great fit with any of these teams but it is still accurate to say they have "shown interest".

 

Personally I think the Twins leverage lies in just carrying Dozier into the season and looking to move him at a future point. I don't think teams are particularly fooled by the 42 HRs and so even if he reverts back to a.750ish OPS the potential returns will be less but not drastically so. On the other hand if he starts 2017 with a .900 OPS it might increase confidence that this truely is an increase in his baseline talent level.

[The Wise One]

 

My read here is that the Twins don't like the current offer on the table from the Dodgers and are "leaking" information hoping to drive up the Dodger return. I think they have probably had some preliminary discussions with the Cardinals/Giants/Nats but they didn't go far because there really isn't a great fit with any of these teams but it is still accurate to say they have "shown interest".

Personally I think the Twins leverage lies in just carrying Dozier into the season and looking to move him at a future point. I don't think teams are particularly fooled by the 42 HRs and so even if he reverts back to a.750ish OPS the potential returns will be less but not drastically so. On the other hand if he starts 2017 with a .900 OPS it might increase confidence that this truely is an increase in his baseline talent level.

So then do you leak there is a deal almost in place with the Dodgers to try to get some interest going

[shs_59]

1. Allow me to correct and re-interate what I said earlier at the TOP of page 2 here.

The Nats, Cubs, Giants, Cardinals and most definitely the Dodgers are all believed to have at least "checked in" on 2B  Brian Dozier and his availability, or lack thereof in all honesty.

 

I Have been saying for quite some time, that If the Dodgers are "unwilling" to part with certain pieces (which they ARE)

 

That the St Louis Cardinals are A Better Match and thats even WITH RHP Alexander Reyes not being a part of any such deal.

 

my offers if I'm with Antony, Johnson, & Johnson, Steil , Levine, and Falvey and Co.

 

1. Dozier and Tonkin ...   for .. RHP Luke Weaver, AAA , RHP Jack Flaherty (A+ (aa) , OF Magneirus Sierra (although I don't personally think his ceiling is that different then Ben Revere's or Aaron Hicks)

and RHP Sandy Alcantara, A  (A+) and possibly one other player.

 

I originally had included 2B/CF Kolten Wong b/c the Cardinals are sort of "growing old" of him and 2. Really don't need him with Gyorko's explosion last year. Either Way in any such Dozier deal involing the Cards, they will certainly at least toy with pushing Wong on us. ONE WOULD THINK

 

 

2. Dozier and Ryan Pressly (or Tonkin, preferably  if they'd succumb)... for ..

 

Jose De Leon, RHP Chase De Jong (AAA) , Willie Cahloun (AA) , and RHP Walker Buehler (A+) .

 

[shs_59]

If the Nats are willing to include CF Victor Robles, that is the only way I see they have the prospects it will take to acquire 2B Brian Dozier

 

If they are not willing to include Robles (most likely) 

 

They simply do not have what it takes after giving away ~75% of the Farm in the Adam Eaton Deal.

 

White Sox killed it on 2 deal this off-season , just blew the industry away almost.

Edited December 27, 2016 by shs_59

[specialiststeve]

I do believe that most are over rating the Cards pitching. Weaver and Flaherty are number 3/4 starters most likely. We have a ton of those in our system so why would we move our best asset for pieces like that. Bader is okay but not great power or speed. 4th outfielder type guy. Not seeing it here unless Reyes is included. As far as Wong they would need to make space for Dozier is why he would likely need to be included. He is still young and is still decent and has shown in flashes to be pretty good. Defensively he is very solid.

 

I too believe that we are driving up the price and want Bellinger and Deleon and Bellinger is the sticking point most likely.

[Han Joelo]

Oh kripes. It took me nearly 1000 comments before I could get Walter Buehlers name right. Now I have to figure out how to pretend like I know who a bunch of new guys are.

 

Maybe the Dodgers put these rumors out--"see, he's only worth Kolton Wong to the Cards. You really should take our offer, or some of your fans won't forget and they'll mention it in every post on forums for years to come."

 

 

[spanman2]

^{Sounds like the price of poker just went up!}  

Edited December 27, 2016 by spanman2

[beckmt]

Tend to agree that the Cardinal offer is still light, no need for Wong.  Can move Polanco to second and have Gordon up a year early or use Escobar and Vielma or Dan San for next year. 

Twins have little need for #3, #4 starter types, we have plenty.  So for me to make any deal work would be the upside of the top piece or the inclusion of more than 1 lottery ticket.  Lot more to be played.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I keep seeing people say that we have plenty of 3 and 4 type starters. I feel like this isn't really accurate. We have 3 and 4 starters for what the Twins have been over the past 6-10 years, but I don't feel like we have many "league average" 3 or 4 starters. We all HOPE that some of our pitching prospects at AA and lower currently will become at least #3 or #4 starters, but man, in our current rotation, who would you quantify as #3 or #4 starters?

 

Ervin Santana.

 

To me, that's the entire list. I don't feel like the Twins have any other CURRENT DAY  #3 starters. We all hope Berrios will become that, and I think  he can based on his minor league numbers. But man, to poo poo the idea of a #3 starter coming back, when that is a MASSIVE upgrade to what the Twins currently have in the starting rotation, that to me isn't really a negative.

 

I'm not saying we shoot for mediocrity; the Twins should always shoot for top of the rotation level type talent. But to say someone like Luke Weaver or Brock Stewart are guys who wouldn't upgrade our rotation, to me, that is crazy.

Edited December 27, 2016 by enge0280

[gunnarthor]

I think I might almost like a package of Weaver and Flaherty + more than a De Leon and Calhoun + package.  I know De Leon has the higher ceiling but his shoulder and durability scare me.  I think both Weaver and Flaherty are a bit underrated and could be Scott Baker/Ervin Santana types.  Not ideal top of the rotation guys but a couple good durable pitchers.  

 

In any event, it's nice to see other teams in the mix.

[Loosey]

Whether this is all spin or if it is real interest that has come out, I think the Twins are playing this Dozier hand great.  I don't think the old front office could have done this as long as Falvey and Levine.  Maybe they really were 24 hours away from a deal and another team came knocking to have them put it on hold.  In the TR days, I think Dozier would be gone already and there would be a lot of opportunities that were not explored and/or possibly missed.  I don't know how things were with TR internally, but (this is my own perception) his personality and likability could have caused other teams to take advantage and tell him things like, if he goes and explores other options, the current offer might not be there when he gets back or reduced, etc (I watch too much Shark Tank...)

 

When this is all said and done I still think Dozier ends up in LA.  But it looks like "Falvine" have stirred up interest and explored multiple opportunities prior to finalizing anything just to cover their bases in case a better opportunity came up.

[Mike Sixel]

we won't know how well they are playing it until he is traded or not....

 

I can't see how anyone can take what Doogie says seriously, as anything other than a PR piece for the Twins. Still waiting for all his "the Twins are in on X" to come true 1 time....

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

we won't know how well they are playing it until he is traded or not....

 

I can't see how anyone can take what Doogie says seriously, as anything other than a PR piece for the Twins. Still waiting for all his "the Twins are in on X" to come true 1 time....

 

I'm missing the whole part on not taking Darren Wolfson seriously. What is at that I am not seeing?

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm missing the whole part on not taking Darren Wolfson seriously. What is at that I am not seeing?

 

Well, he has tweeted for years that the Twins were "in on" every Cuban.....IMO, and this is me not knowing anything other than what I read, he's a mouthpiece for the Twins.

[howieramone2]

 

Logical Centerpieces from each team rumored for me to pull the trigger on trading Dozier if I'm the Twins:

 

Dodgers: RHP Jose De Leon & RHP Yadier Alvarez

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: 2B/DH Willie Calhoun, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Jordan Sheffield, SS Gavin Lux, C Austin Barnes, RHP Brock Stewart

 

Cardinals: RHP Luke Weaver, OF Harrison Bader, & RHP Jack Flaherty

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: SS Delvin Perez, OF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Dakota Hudson, C Carson Kelly

 

Nationals: OF Victor Robles & RHP Erick Fedde

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: SS Carter Kieboom, 3B Sheldon Nuese, LHP Jesus Luzardo, C Pedro Severino, 

 

Giants: SS/3B Christian Arroyo, RHP Tyler Beede, 1B Chris Shaw, & RHP Rodolfo Martinez

 

Other Complimentary Players to Watch: OF Bryan Reynolds, RHP Sam Coonrod, C Aramis Garcia, RHP Joan Gregorio, LHP Andrew Suarez, RHP Jordan Johnson

 

Yes, this is all prospects. I don't understand the people in these forums that want to emphasize major league ready talent. That makes zero sense. Why would we want Kolten Wong? The Twins are not winning the world series in 2017, 2018, or 2019. So it makes sense to get the best possible players with the most upside, not someone who will be in our rotation or play second base for us in 2017.  

So you want to do a tear down and start a new 5 year plan? No one can predict who will win the World Series, the goal is to play meaningful baseball in September.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you want to do a tear down and start a new 5 year plan? No one can predict who will win the World Series, the goal is to play meaningful baseball in September.

 

I'd 100% want prospects back, the Twins need to rebuild. That said, most of the prospects he listed are in AA or AAA or have some MLB time already, this isn't a bunch of rookie ball guys....

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Well, he has tweeted for years that the Twins were "in on" every Cuban.....IMO, and this is me not knowing anything other than what I read, he's a mouthpiece for the Twins.

 

They may have been in on them or scouting them. The latest one, Norge Ruiz, was just signed by the A's. I don't know why the Twins did or didn't sign a guy that Wolfson reported they sent a scout out to watch. But man, I have a hard time holding that against the messenger.

 

If there is something else, then fine. But just because the twins scout a guy and choose not to sign him, and that is reported on, that doesn't mean he is a bad reporter.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I'd 100% want prospects back, the Twins need to rebuild. That said, most of the prospects he listed are in AA or AAA or have some MLB time already, this isn't a bunch of rookie ball guys....

 

Agreed. The prospects listed here would all be playing at some point in 2017 or 2018 more than l likely. These offers, if they are on the table, would help the Twins very soon and for the forseeable future.

 

Trading Dozier isn't a tear down. It is using an asset at its highest value to gain more assets that have longer term value than Dozier will have WITH the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They may have been in on them or scouting them. The latest one, Norge Ruiz, was just signed by the A's. I don't know why the Twins did or didn't sign a guy that Wolfson reported they sent a scout out to watch. But man, I have a hard time holding that against the messenger.

 

If there is something else, then fine. But just because the twins scout a guy and choose not to sign him, and that is reported on, that doesn't mean he is a bad reporter.

 

Being "in on" a guy, imo, is very different than scouting them. Like I said, I am judging this solely on what I read from him, and he seems to carry their water a lot. "gee, they just missed out on this guy" type stuff...I could be wrong, it's just my opinion. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Being "in on" a guy, imo, is very different than scouting them. Like I said, I am judging this solely on what I read from him, and he seems to carry their water a lot. "gee, they just missed out on this guy" type stuff...I could be wrong, it's just my opinion. 

 

Fair. I wasn't saying your opinion was wrong (how can an opinion be wrong?) I just didn't know where it was coming from is all. He seems like a genuinely nice person, and works hard at his craft. I just have a hard time faulting someone for that is all.

[drjim]

They may have been in on them or scouting them. The latest one, Norge Ruiz, was just signed by the A's. I don't know why the Twins did or didn't sign a guy that Wolfson reported they sent a scout out to watch. But man, I have a hard time holding that against the messenger.

 

If there is something else, then fine. But just because the twins scout a guy and choose not to sign him, and that is reported on, that doesn't mean he is a bad reporter.

I think it makes him a good reporter. There had been multiple reports of other teams interested earlier in the offseason and he put some actual teams out there.

 

Not signing a Cuban FA seems a bizarre thing to hold against a reporter.

[howieramone2]

 

Well, he has tweeted for years that the Twins were "in on" every Cuban.....IMO, and this is me not knowing anything other than what I read, he's a mouthpiece for the Twins.

What's wrong with being a mouthpiece for our favorite team? It's no secret he had a good relationship with TR.