Article: The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

[Tom Froemming]

Tom Petty wrote that the waiting is the hardest part. You can count me among the Twins fans who can relate to that sentiment this offseason. All the excitement about new faces in the front office and speculation around the direction they may point the organization has resulted in very little action thus far.

 

That's not to say there's reason to be critical of the Twins' offseason to this point. Heck it's too early to pass any kind of judgement either way. There is plenty of time for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to transform the roster if they see fit. But, there's no denying the hot stove has been characteristically cold for the Twins despite new leadership. Don't expect things to heat up anytime soon.It's not very common for trades to happen this time of year, as it seems like front offices take it a little easy during the holidays. Last season, the Reds traded Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees on Dec. 28 but there wasn't another trade for almost two weeks after. Typically if a trade is going to happen early in the offseason it's completed at the Winter Meetings.

 

Jon Heyman's reports that talks with the Dodgers about a potential Brian Dozier swap do not appear to be progressing. At what point do the Twins (or Dodgers, for that matter) just walk away from trade talks? I'm not in the camp that is demanding Dozier to be traded this winter, but I am starting to feel a weird anxiety about his status being up in the air (can't even begin to imagine how he feels). I just want to know if Dozier is going to be a part of the 2017 Twins or not. So many other things around the infield depend on what happens with Dozier.

 

In my offseason blueprint I decided it would be better to hold Dozier and see if maybe at the deadline there would be more teams interested at that time. It's always nice to have a bidding war to drive up the asking price. But I'm starting to doubt if there will be another package that comes around with a better upper-level pitching prospect than Jose De Leon.

 

Dave Cameron's of Fangraphs believes the Twins should make a deal for De Leon while he's on the table. And after reading Nick's thorough breakdown of De Leon it's tough to disagree with Cameron's stance. De Leon is certainly a risky investment, but what young pitcher isn't?

 

While my own patience runs thin, it's probably a good thing for Twins fans I'm not running the team. That's true for lots of reasons, but chief among them right now is that I wouldn't have the endurance to be engaged in a negotiation for this long. Falvey and Levine may be running the risk of the Dodgers looking elsewhere to find a second baseman, but all the negotiating power lies with the Twins at this point.

 

If a deal doesn't get done, the Twins keep the best and most popular player in the organization who just hit 42 home runs, is in his prime and on an affordable contract. And taking a look at Seth's recent roster projection, there aren't any glaring holes on the team now that Jason Castro has filled the void at catcher.

 

The Dodgers, on the other hand, currently project to have Enrique Hernandez as their Opening Day second baseman. There are also rumors they're interested in a reunion with Chase Utley, who just turned 38-years-old. Sure, they could trade for another player such as Logan Forsythe of the Rays, but he's not on Dozier's level and he would still cost LA an impressive package of prospects.

 

By no means do the Twins need to trade Brian Dozier. Falvey and Levine know this. I think one could argue the Dodgers need Dozier if they expect to contend for the World Series. The National League should be extremely competitive. Good things come to those who wait. Hopefully the Dodgers eventually give in and let go of whoever the Twins are holding out for. They have every reason to do so.

 

Click here to view the article

[Libby]

The Dodgers most likely offered De Leon for Dozier, but the Twins, along with their fans, were looking for Bellinger and other top prospects to be included.  The Dodgers have moved on and are looking at other options.  Actually, Kinsler or Forsythe are better fits for the Dodgers and won't cost top prospects.  Twins fans would rather have Dozier than De Leon, and Dodgers' fans would rather have De Leon, so everyone will end up happy on this one.  The Twins can trade with the Giants for their top pitching prospect (Tyler Beede, who is ranked 98th on the Top 100 prospects) or they can turn to the free agent market for pitching.

[AZTwin]

The Dodgers most likely offered De Leon for Dozier, but the Twins, along with their fans, were looking for Bellinger and other top prospects to be included. The Dodgers have moved on and are looking at other options. Actually, Kinsler or Forsythe are better fits for the Dodgers and won't cost top prospects. Twins fans would rather have Dozier than De Leon, and Dodgers' fans would rather have De Leon, so everyone will end up happy on this one. The Twins can trade with the Giants for their top pitching prospect (Tyler Beede, who is ranked 98th on the Top 100 prospects) or they can turn to the free agent market for pitching.

We have a lot of pitching coming up. Gonsalves, Berrios, Jay, Stewart, Romero (similar to Alvarez) and we have the number 1 pick to use on pitching. Thing is those guys are just prospects. Could just as easily bust as De Leon with his bad shoulder and limited innings and Alvarez. Could they turn out? Sure but pure numbers say most won't. When acquiring prospects, you usually need to acquire a few to make it fair because of the safety in numbers. Even then it's not for sure they'll pan out. Twins won't trade one of the best 2B for scrubs. At that point, he is more valuable on the team. Deal needs to at least be fair. If dodgers don't want to offer a fair trade, then so be it. They can continue to look up to the other teams in the NL while they waste kershaws prime years

[Libby]

I don't understand the comment that the Dodgers are looking up to other teams in the NL while wasting Kershaw's prime years.  They won their division the last 4 years and Kershaw had his chances in the playoffs.  I love Kershaw, but in truth, the Dodgers' big problem is that Kershaw hasn't delivered in the playoffs; and not because they didn't have Dozier.

[HitInAPinch]

Firstly, I think it important to note that the Twins were late to the game because Falvey & Co. were still still in the process of building the business and baseball related orgs.  Discussions were most certainly going on, but focus seemed to be on the organization first.

 

Secondly, I don't remember reading that the Twins actually requested Bellinger.  I think that was part of a TD fantasy discussion. And I'm betting the Falvey was also talking to many other teams.  But none of them have the luster of the LA Dodgers.

 

Thirdly, a prospect is a prospect until they're not.  It's a crap shoot.  Dodgers have a pretty good record of developing players;  the Twins do not.

 

Finally:  Tom Petty's "The Waiting" is one of the whiniest songs I've ever heard.  Hurts my ears.

American Girl!  One of the Best Ever!!!

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

The counterargument to keeping Dozier lies in the past 5+ years of the Twins missing out on "selling high" on a player in his prime for younger prospects that actually project to be ready when the team competes again.

 

Look no further than Perkins, a multi-year All-Star closer on a last place team. He had no value for the Twins other than as a trade asset, but they did nothing. Same goes for Suzuki, Hughes, Willingham, and Plouffe, who hit their peak values while with the Twins, but the team failed to capitalize on trading them before they fell off the cliff.

 

The Twins never fully embraced the rebuild mode during the past half-decade+ of horrible baseball. By trading Dozier, who should be great again next year while the team isn't ready to compete yet, the front office will finally show signs of having a competent, consistent plan they stick to (i.e. 2018/19 or bust!).

[drjim]

Not trading Perkins in 13 or especially 14 was by far the worst example of trade mismanagement.

 

They shouldn't have extended Hughes, but people vastly overrate the return they could have gotten for Suzuki and especially Willingham.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

They shouldn't have extended Hughes, but people vastly overrate the return they could have gotten for Suzuki and especially Willingham.

 

Something's better than nothing. A flyer prospect would have been better than simply letting them play poorly through to the end of their contracts. Or even worse, extending Hughes after a career-defying season and then watching his arm go to hell.

 

Willingham was a silver slugger winner in 2012. 35 HR and 100+ RBI would have gotten interest from somebody. Most likely from a smart team that would have stuck him at DH rather than watch him fumble around in LF.

[Mike Sixel]

Why are the Twins' behind the Cubs and Astros? Part of the reason is that those teams traded their veterans for prospects. The Twins traded Span and Revere, and got nothing for Span (ugh, jeebus) and a big fat question mark for Revere.

 

Not trading Dozier is going to slow down the rebuild, AWFUL teams that have lost 90+ games 5 of the last 6 years need to trade older veterans for prospects. That's how rebuilds speed up. At this point, the White Sox look like they may have passed the twins in the rebuild....

[Dantes929]

Dozier absolutely carried the team into contention in the first half of 2015 but I kept hearing how well he handled the high inside pitch and kept seeing how he was continuing to see high inside pitches.    Like most hitters who are pull happy I did not think it could last and of course it did not.   I thought his trade value was highest at the all star break that year.    Then in 2016 I appreciated how he was trying to be a more complete hitter but the first half results were poor.   Then the switch was turned on and the 2nd half of 2016 happened.    My point is I am way more confident that the 2nd half 2016 is sustainable whereas the first half 2015 was not.   As much as I like Polanco I do not believe he can carry a team offensively like Dozier has.    If guys like Santana, Berrios, May can all perform well at the same time then we still need offense to produce and Dozier has been the best producer for us over the last two years.    I think Dozier has become a very good hitter.   I have often advocated the Twins consider exploring trading guys who were on hot streaks and thus selling high but the idea of selling high is that you actually get high as a return.    DeLeon and Buehler should be the minimum of what we get.   Any less would not be "selling high", imo.   The flip side of not selling guys at their high point in the past was selling Johann Santana at his high point but not getting a high return.   Who knows what would have happened if we had simply kept him.    Would likely have meant a playoff spot and who knows what happens then.

[nicksaviking]

It's getting frustrating and "I Need to Know", but poor Dozier right about now is probably feeling like a "Refugee", this kind of stress can easily lead to an all too common holiday "Breakdown".

 

The Dodgers are probably only offering De Leon plus parts while Falvey understandably is saying "Don't Do Me Like that", "I Won't Back Down" from needing Bellinger or Alvarez in the deal as well. "Even the Losers" need to be tossed a bone once in awhile.

 

Trading Dozier is the team's best chance of "Running Down a Dream" and they can't squander it. I'm optimistic though, I think come this time next year we're going to be looking at the haul Falvey got and say "You Got Lucky". I don't like the alternative, if Dozier stays I think his value almost certainly starts "Freefalling".

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

It's getting frustrating and "I Need to Know", but poor Dozier right about now is probably feeling like a "Refugee", this kind of stress can easily lead to an all too common holiday "Breakdown".

 

The Dodgers are probably only offering De Leon plus parts While Falvey understandably is saying "Don't Do Me Like that", "I Won't Back Down" from needing Bellinger or Alvarez in the deal as well. "Even the Losers" need to be tossed a bone once in awhile.

 

Trading Dozier is the team's best chance of "Running Down a Dream" and they can't squander it. I'm optimistic though, I think come this time next year we're going to be looking at the haul Falvey got and say "You Got Lucky". I don't like the alternative, if Dozier stays I think his value almost certainly starts "Freefalling".

 

If the trade goes down, then you gotta imagine that Falvey & Co. would tell Dozier that they wish him the best, but "Don't Come Around Here No More."

[brvama]

Why are the Twins' behind the Cubs and Astros? Part of the reason is that those teams traded their veterans for prospects. The Twins traded Span and Revere, and got nothing for Span (ugh, jeebus) and a big fat question mark for Revere.

 

Not trading Dozier is going to slow down the rebuild, AWFUL teams that have lost 90+ games 5 of the last 6 years need to trade older veterans for prospects. That's how rebuilds speed up. At this point, the White Sox look like they may have passed the twins in the rebuild....

Now I don't remember your take on those trades when they happened, but IMO you just confirmed the difficulty in trading MLBers for prospects. It's a crap shoot. That doesn't mean you don't do it. In this case I have a bit more confidence in the current FO as to their strategy.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Now I don't remember your take on those trades when they happened, but IMO you just confirmed the difficulty in trading MLBers for prospects. It's a crap shoot. That doesn't mean you don't do it. In this case I have a bit more confidence in the current FO as to their strategy.

 

I didn't know enough about Meyer and the history of tall pitchers to get that one correct, nor do I recall what I thought then. I think, not sure, but I think I liked the Revere trade, except for the fact they had already dealt Span. 

 

frankly, had they just kept May as a starter, I think I'd like that trade still.

[mikelink45]

I would hope the Hughes, Span, Revere, Suzuki, Willingham, Nolasco...are representative of the old regime and I certainly hope to see something from the new leadership beyond the addition of dozens of new coaches and former Twins cheerleaders.  At this point I have nothing to look forward to except the fact that the old regime is no longer around. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

It's getting frustrating and "I Need to Know", but poor Dozier right about now is probably feeling like a "Refugee", this kind of stress can easily lead to an all too common holiday "Breakdown".

 

The Dodgers are probably only offering De Leon plus parts while Falvey understandably is saying "Don't Do Me Like that", "I Won't Back Down" from needing Bellinger or Alvarez in the deal as well. "Even the Losers" need to be tossed a bone once in awhile.

 

Trading Dozier is the team's best chance of "Running Down a Dream" and they can't squander it. I'm optimistic though, I think come this time next year we're going to be looking at the haul Falvey got and say "You Got Lucky". I don't like the alternative, if Dozier stays I think his value almost certainly starts "Freefalling".

This is the best ever!

[REPETE]

 

Look no further than Perkins, a multi-year All-Star closer on a last place team. He had no value for the Twins other than as a trade asset, but they did nothing. Same goes for Suzuki, Hughes, Willingham, and Plouffe, who hit their peak values while with the Twins, but the team failed to capitalize on trading them before they fell off the cliff.

Perkins was a different deal.  He signed a very team-friendly contract with the promise from management they would NOT trade him. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Perkins was a different deal.  He signed a very team-friendly contract with the promise from management they would NOT trade him. 

 

That was stupid....for a bad team especially. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Perkins was a different deal.  He signed a very team-friendly contract with the promise from management they would NOT trade him. 

 

Wow! That's the first time I heard that. I'd second Mike's comment above that that was a really stupid move for both sides.

 

It reinforces the opinion a lot of people had that the old regime had a handful of "their guys" they liked and went out of their way to support/protect to the detriment of the rest of the organization.

[Doomtints]

The Twins should wisen up a bit.  De Leon has better minor league numbers than Johan Santana with a fastball and changeup that are not far off.

 

De Leon relies on his fastball too much which is a concern, but the Twins just need to get him to trust them to call the pitches.

 

Regardless of his 2016, Dozier is B level talent and a simple 1-to-1 trade for De Leon has the Twins coming out winners.  If the Twins are squabbling over the #2 player in the trade, they should just take whoever the Dodgers have on the table.  The #2 person doesn't matter in this transaction as the Twins are already coming out ahead.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Doomtints

[Thrylos]

 

 

 At this point I have nothing to look forward to except the fact that the old regime is no longer around. 

 

Look again.  Only the head of the old regime was replaced.  The old regime is still around.

[Thrylos]

 

Perkins was a different deal.  He signed a very team-friendly contract with the promise from management they would NOT trade him. 

 

Promise?  Pinky promise?  Unlike Mauer he did not have a no-trade clause. 

[Doomtints]

 

Look again.  Only the head of the old regime was replaced.  The old regime is still around.

 

True.  The person who was running the analytics department is still running the analytics department.  In fact, they gave him a new job title that suggests a raise and promotion. 

 

Though, to be fair, the analytics team should only be producing the numbers that their bosses tell them to. 

[sploorp]

 

Finally:  Tom Petty's "The Waiting" is one of the whiniest songs I've ever heard.  Hurts my ears.

American Girl!  One of the Best Ever!!!

Kudos to you and your keen sense of intuition and interpretation.  I agree with you 100% on both points.  A much more serviceable song choice might have been something like "Anticipation" by Carly Simon.

 

The writer's weak pop culture reference almost ruined the whole article for me.

[mikelink45]

 

Look again.  Only the head of the old regime was replaced.  The old regime is still around.

That is an accurate statement, but hardly one to light up my New Years fires.

 

[dxpavelka]

"there aren't any glaring holes on the team now that Jason Castro has filled the void at catcher."  WHAT?  Signing 29 year old catcher who hasn't hit higher than .222 since 2013 because he frames pitches well is the signature move  that is going to fix a 59 win team? They could have hired ME to run this team.  I could have done that.  Obviously this ain't rocket science.  Just go on Facebook or Twins Daily, see what the first rube says to do and do it.  BRILLIANT.

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

The Twins should wisen up a bit.  De Leon has better minor league numbers than Johan Santana with a fastball and changeup that are not far off.

 

De Leon relies on his fastball too much which is a concern, but the Twins just need to get him to trust them to call the pitches.

 

Regardless of his 2016, Dozier is B level talent and a simple 1-to-1 trade for De Leon has the Twins coming out winners.  If the Twins are squabbling over the #2 player in the trade, they should just take whoever the Dodgers have on the table.  The #2 person doesn't matter in this transaction as the Twins are already coming out ahead.

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Dozier is not "B" level talent. He is a top-20 hitter with power, and a capable defender. That's not B-level, considering how many hitters there are in the major leagues.

 

He's worth a lot more than just De Leon. De Leon is still a prospect. The Twins should get at least one more MLB-ready starting pitcher and one or two more prospects for Dozier. If not, just keep him.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Darren Wolfson just tweeted this:

 

‏@DWolfsonKSTP
Dozier update: told LAD still very much in it. Here's the new wrinkle: STL very much in it, + Nats & Giants remain in dialogue. #MNTwins

 

That's a new wrinkle indeed! If STL is putting up a similar package to LAD, it could be very interesting...

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

St. Louis' top two prospects, Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver are both starting pitchers who reached the major leagues in 2016. Could they and a couple other prospects be traded for Dozier? 

 

It's just conjecture at this point.

 

[REPETE]

 

Promise?  Pinky promise?  Unlike Mauer he did not have a no-trade clause. 

True, but Mauer's deal was hardly very "team friendly".  Perkins could've gotten more money from a lot of other teams, but wanted to stay in MN.  Whether or not you agree with the deal premise, it was an understanding between Perkins & Terry Ryan, and Ryan wasn't the type of guy to break that promise.  My guess is Ryan's way of thinking was, we're small market, and got a very team friendly bargain because I struck this deal.  If I break this deal, my word is worthless, and we'll never get another "hand-shake" deal again.