Article: Projecting The 2020 Twins Line-Up

[ThejacKmp]

 

Huge difference between Wade and Rosario:  Wade walks.  Career 101:80 BB:K.  And .297/.409/.459 slash line.  Rosario's minor league numbers are very similar, but one: His career MiLB slash is: .294/.340/.484.   So if they hit at a .250 clip in the majors, Rosario's OBP will be .290 while Wade's .340 or so.  I can live with a .340 OBP but not .290.

 

The numbers don’t fit your point. You’ve taken Rosario’s entire MILB career, which involves two levels Wade hasn’t reached. You’ve also supposed they’re both going to hit .250 in the majors when Rosario has had a better average throughout the minors and has hit .268 through two MLB seasons.

 

LaMonte Wade’s A and A+ slashes

 

.280/.410/.396/.806 (207 AB)
.318/.386/.518/.904 (110 AB)

 

Eddie Rosario’s:

 

.296/.345/.490/.835 (392 AB)
.325/.377/.498/.875 (237 AB)

 

Those guys are pretty similar in OPS through the only levels they’ve both done so far. Therein lies the rub – Lamonte Wade has not reached the upper levels of the minors or the majors so it’s easier to get excited about him, we haven’t seen the warts. Rosario was pretty decent at keeping K numbers down in the low minors but starting in AA, those strikeouts started to creep higher and the walks stagnated. Wade will also likely start to walk less and strike out more. Will he always have a higher OBP than Rosario? Likely. But he’s at a deficit when it comes to power potential and average so that’s more of a wash.

 

I think it’s also important to look at those ABs. Wade’s A+ numbers are based on 110 at-bats – that’s a very small sample size and also represents a big jump in slugging (lots of doubles) that may not be sustainable. He’d have to keep up the slugging this year to even keep pace with Rosario.

 

It also doesn’t take age into effect. Rosario is only 27 months older than Wade but is entering his third significant major league year while Wade is still in high A ball. People forget this in the woes about the very real weaknesses of Rosario’s game but he’s still absurdly young. He’s not likely to walk more but it’s conceivable that he’ll learn to control the strike zone better and put more balls in play. He’ll also likely gain some strength so some 20+ HR years are also a very real possibility.

 

That’s really another thing about this 2020 team – we look at it and think “Ugh, Rosario still starting?” but forget that this will be a Rosario in his prime age 28 year and who is still two years removed from free agency. That should be a wildly different Rosario than the one we love and are frustrated by today. Rosario may not be a perennial All-Star but he’s got a lot of room to grow into a really nice piece for the Twins.

 

Wade may end up that too but to me he seems more like a nice 4th OF type.

Edited December 23, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[goulik]

The numbers don’t fit your point. You’ve taken Rosario’s entire MILB career, which involves two levels Wade hasn’t reached. You’ve also supposed they’re both going to hit .250 in the majors when Rosario has had a better average throughout the minors and has hit .268 through two MLB seasons.

 

LaMonte Wade’s A and A+ slashes

 

.280/.410/.396/.806 (207 AB)

.318/.386/.518/.904 (110 AB)

 

Eddie Rosario’s:

 

.296/.345/.490/.835 (392 AB)

.325/.377/.498/.875 (237 AB)

 

Those guys are pretty similar in OPS through the only levels they’ve both done so far. Therein lies the rub – Lamonte Wade has not reached the upper levels of the minors or the majors so it’s easier to get excited about him, we haven’t seen the warts. Rosario was pretty decent at keeping K numbers down in the low minors but starting in AA, those strikeouts started to creep higher and the walks stagnated. Wade will also likely start to walk less and strike out more. Will he always have a higher OBP than Rosario? Likely. But he’s at a deficit when it comes to power potential and average so that’s more of a wash.

 

I think it’s also important to look at those ABs. Wade’s A+ numbers are based on 110 at-bats – that’s a very small sample size and also represents a big jump in slugging (lots of doubles) that may not be sustainable. He’d have to keep up the slugging this year to even keep pace with Rosario.

 

It also doesn’t take age into effect. Rosario is only 27 months older than Wade but is entering his third significant major league year while Wade is still in high A ball. People forget this in the woes about the very real weaknesses of Rosario’s game but he’s still absurdly young. He’s not likely to walk more but it’s conceivable that he’ll learn to control the strike zone better and put more balls in play. He’ll also likely gain some strength so some 20+ HR years are also a very real possibility.

 

That’s really another thing about this 2020 team – we look at it and think “Ugh, Rosario still starting?” but forget that this will be a Rosario in his prime age 28 year and who is still two years removed from free agency. That should be a wildly different Rosario than the one we love and are frustrated by today. Rosario may not be a perennial All-Star but he’s got a lot of room to grow into a really nice piece for the Twins.

 

Wade may end up that too but to me he seems more like a nice 4th OF type.

Very well stated! Who knew Dozier would hit 20+ home runs repeatedly? 42? Saying Ugh about having the same core hitters in 3 years is forgetting the growth potential of Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco. Some may not grow into that potential. Rosario could be a Cuddyer type player. Buxton could become Delmon Young. (Yes I vommitted in my mouth saying that) Wade might not make the majors but I am inclined to bet on him. We really just don't know though and no amount of analytics can 100% forecast any of it.

[Dave The Dastardly]

2020? Is this like a Back to the Future kind of hindsight thing?

 

This winter must be more severe than I thought.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are Robbie Grossman and Kurt Suzuki?

 

You're going to have to play who you have available to you. Seeing this spelled out, I'm thinking everyone's pitcher heavy Dozier trade proposals perhaps should shift to include at least one bat who may contribute here.

 

I thought I would be more excited to see this projection, gosh almighty this team needs to restock.

 

How can that be? We have been TERRIBLE for 5 of the last 6 years...the farm should be STACKED by now.....(btw, Sano, Polanco, and Kepler were all in the farm before that....).

[drivlikejehu]

That's not going to be close to the actual 2020 lineup. 

[drjim]

That's not going to be close to the actual 2020 lineup.

Maybe 50%

[drivlikejehu]

 

Maybe 50%

 

Yeah that would probably be my over/under, not factoring in differences in future position.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

This is how I see it: 

 

C Mitch Garver/ Rainis Silva
1B Kennys Vargas / Lewin Diaz (after deadline)
2B Jorge Polanco
3B Nick Gordon
SS Engelb Vielma/ Wander Javier (after deadline)
LF Max Kepler or LaMonte Wade
CF Byron Buxton
RF Daniel Palka / Amaurys Minier (after deadline)
DH Miguel Sano

 

and Arraez, Blackenhorn, Rortvedt, Kirilloff knocking on the door.

 

Come on Thrylos! We know who you watch.

 

Where's Niko Goodrum?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Very well stated! Who knew Dozier would hit 20+ home runs repeatedly? 42? Saying Ugh about having the same core hitters in 3 years is forgetting the growth potential of Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco. Some may not grow into that potential. Rosario could be a Cuddyer type player. Buxton could become Delmon Young. (Yes I vommitted in my mouth saying that) Wade might not make the majors but I am inclined to bet on him. We really just don't know though and no amount of analytics can 100% forecast any of it.

I think this is a very valid point, however, I cannot believe Byron Buxton will ever be Delmon Young. (I understand it was basically  a suggestion that we be cautionary).

[bluechipper]

 

I thought I would be more excited to see this projection, gosh almighty this team needs to restock.

There's two recent top 10 prospects, a top 30ish prospect (Kepler), a top 50ish (Gordon), and a top 100 (Polanco) in that lineup. That doesn't seem too bad to me, especially with high upside guys like Lewin Diaz and Wander Javier who should be in the mix by 2020 as well.

[DJSim22]

 

Polanco's arm isn't good enough for short but is for third base. Isn't third further away from first than shortstop.

 

No, the throw from 3rd is often shorter as they play near the bag.  It is a straight throw with more time for your footwork as well.  If the short stop goes to his right, it will more likely be a longer throw.