Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I'm not suggesting two guys on level with DeLeon. DeLeon is ranked (2016 MLB rankings – 2017 isn't out yet) as the 33rd best MLB prospect; he's second on the Angels' list. For comparison purposes, the Twins' Tyler Jay is ranked 37th overall on the MLB list.

 

Yadier Alvarez, whom Dave W says is included in the negotiations, is ranked 91st overall, 5th on the Angels' list. Brock Stewart is not on the overall MLB prospect ranking, and is 14th on the Angels list – definitely not on the same level as either De Leon or Alvarez. 

 

 

Stewart is ranked 7th by Fangraphs and 8th by Baseball America.  Baseball Prospectus is really the only place where Stewart hasn't been in the Dodgers top 10.  I was impressed with Stewart.  He was their minor league pitcher of the year.  He looks like an innings eater with great composure.  A solid #4 with some upside.  Low mileage on the arm because has only pitched for a couple of years.  

[gunnarthor]

I've mentioned this before but I'm wary of Stewart.  He seems a lot like Tyler Duffey.  Maybe he's a bit better, maybe not. But he's not going to move the needle.  We could sign Hammel instead and keep Dozier and have another back of the rotation arm.  Couple that with the concerns of De Leon's durability and the Twins could end up really snookered on a De Leon Stewart deal.  

 

For now I think the new FO is going to roll the dice on what they have, see what they have (in the field and in the staff) and make moves later.  I suspect our biggest moves will be signing some FA relievers.  Maybe things change in ST.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It has never been reported that Calhoun or Verdugo aren't on the table.  This discussion thread has expanded a list that was Bellinger, Alvarez, Buehler, and maybe Stewart.  

Verdugo hasn't been mentioned quite as frequently as Bellinger, but a few outlets have mentioned him as a fellow "untouchable":

 

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Dodgers-Doubtful-to-Land-Brian-Dozier-After-Talks-With-Twins-Stall-410384865.html

 

I think there are different classes of "untouchable" of course -- some guys they don't want to give up at all, some they probably just don't want to package with De Leon straight up for Dozier.

[nicksaviking]

 

Again, re-signing rental Rich Hill is something. Nothing huge, but probably equivalent to the Giants one big offseason move so far (signing Melancon).

 

They had Rich Hill last year. They haven't improved the team, they've only re-signed their old (in every sense) players.

 

That's fine, they have a strong core and if that's how they want to play it, that's great. But we as Twins fans know what it's like to stand pat and count on individual improvement to get over the hump.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They had Rich Hill last year. They haven't improved the team, they've only re-signed their old (in every sense) players.

 

That's fine, they have a strong core and if that's how they want to play it, that's great. But we as Twins fans know what it's like to stand pat and count on individual improvement to get over the hump.

They had Rich Hill for 6 starts last year, on the roster for only 2 months.  Having him under contract for the full upcoming season is an improvement over that, even if he is technically a "re-sign".

 

And tying this back to the 2000s era Twins continues to be erroneous -- the Dodgers have regularly made big commitments in salary and trade in recent years.  Just because they're not doing it right now with Dozier doesn't mean they are "standing pat and counting on individual improvement to get over the hump".  Get back to me if they haven't made any major moves and still have the same holes on August 1st.

[biggentleben]

 

5 years of control, and the possibility he could be really good. Clubs do not give that up without a great return.

 

I think you have a very different view of Cesar Hernandez than...well...anyone else I know, including Phillies scouts and fans.

 

Hernandez is a utility guy who played over his head in 2016 (which happened a lot in Philly - Freddy flipping Galvis hit 24 home runs!), but he's not in their long-term plans. From all I've seen, read, heard, etc. the intention is that Crawford is at SS in 2017 with Galvis at 2B.

 

If they got offered De Leon for Hernandez, you can bet they'd jump on that faster than the Dodgers could finish the sentence.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think you have a very different view of Cesar Hernandez than...well...anyone else I know, including Phillies scouts and fans.

 

Hernandez is a utility guy who played over his head in 2016 (which happened a lot in Philly - Freddy flipping Galvis hit 24 home runs!), but he's not in their long-term plans. From all I've seen, read, heard, etc. the intention is that Crawford is at SS in 2017 with Galvis at 2B.

 

If they got offered De Leon for Hernandez, you can bet they'd jump on that faster than the Dodgers could finish the sentence.

Good point, especially on Crawford.

 

Although I can't imagine the Phillies want to count on Galvis too much going forward.  Yeah, he hit 20 HR, but that's about all he did -- same 79 OPS+ as the year before when he only hit 7 HR.  Even with above-average defense and baserunning, B-Ref pegged him for only 1.3 WAR playing virtually every day at SS last season.

 

With a rising price tag in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility, I could see the Phillies preferring to deal Galvis and keeping Hernandez.  But I could also see that plan changing if someone was willing to pay enough for Hernandez (and as you suggest, that may not even require as much as De Leon).

[beckmt]

 

Good point, especially on Crawford.

 

Although I can't imagine the Phillies want to count on Galvis too much going forward.  Yeah, he hit 20 HR, but that's about all he did -- same 79 OPS+ as the year before when he only hit 7 HR.  Even with above-average defense and baserunning, B-Ref pegged him for only 1.3 WAR playing virtually every day at SS last season.

 

With a rising price tag in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility, I could see the Phillies preferring to deal Galvis and keeping Hernandez.  But I could also see that plan changing if someone was willing to pay enough for Hernandez (and as you suggest, that may not even require as much as De Leon).

Cheap years are especially good for teams that could be near the salary cap.  Do not know his splits, but if he hits LHP good, might be a good platoon if not a starter.  One year more of control, plus 1 more cheap year could be what the Dodgers ordered,  and De Leon(who for everyone here is not a sure thing) and a lottery ticket might be what is needed.  And that might not be a lot less than they are offering for Dozier.

[Strato Guy]

It looks like the Dodgers just traded De Leon for Forsythe!!

 

[DaveW]

Dodgers upped the last offer from JDL+Alvarez and added in a PTnBl (didn't get exact name but it was one of the draft picks from 2016)

 

Twins balked/stalled and held out for more.

 

Dodgers went ahead and pulled trigger on Forsythe

 

Source: "Twins got too cute, burnt them in the end, not a good start for the new FO"

 

I agree, what a disaster!

[DaveW]

Started a new thread, but the Twins BLEW it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ish. If the Dodgers were willing to give up De Leon for Forsythe, one has to believe their offer to the Twins was significantly better.

 

Do not like.

[DaveW]

Ish. If the Dodgers were willing to give up De Leon for Forsythe, one has to believe their offer to the Twins was significantly better.

 

Do not like.

It was, it was JDL+Alvarez+PTBnL (one of the guys not named Lux who was drafted last year)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It was, it was JDL+Alvarez+PTBnL (one of the guys not named Lux who was drafted last year)

I wouldn't do backflips for that offer but I'd take it because no one else was interested in Dozier and the Twins need arms.

 

Sometimes the market for a guy just isn't what it should be... And Dozier appeared to be in that situation.

[Squirrel]

 

Ish. If the Dodgers were willing to give up De Leon for Forsythe, one has to believe their offer to the Twins was significantly better.

 

Do not like.

Or that's all they were willing to give up and were trying to get more than DeLeon was worth. And they found out that a straight up deal was only worth Forsythe.

[DaveW]

Or that's all they were willing to give up and were trying to get more than DeLeon was worth. And they found out that a straight up deal was only worth Forsythe.

I'm 100% confident that wasn't the case.

 

Dozier >>> Forsythe and everyone knows that, Twins wouldn't have picked up the phone again if it was just JDL for Dozier, there is a reason why they included Alvarez, Dozier is in his prime, 45+ hr power and a 5-6 WAR 2B

[King]

I have a difficult time believing the Twins would balk at De Leon + Alvarez +, so consider me skeptical.

 

 

[DaveW]

I have a difficult time believing the Twins would balk at De Leon + Alvarez +, so consider me skeptical.

fair enough, though I don't blame you for thinking that. If I was in charge I would pull the trigger on it!!

[DaveW]

I wouldn't do backflips for that offer but I'd take it because no one else was interested in Dozier and the Twins need arms.

 

Sometimes the market for a guy just isn't what it should be... And Dozier appeared to be in that situation.

Yeah I think ultimately the Twins overplayed their hand. All is not lost...yet as he will still have great value at the deadline and maybe even next offseason, but that assumes he stays healthy and continues to mash. Like I said if I was GM I would have taken the deal, two in the hand etc etc

[jorgenswest]

If true and they passed on the deal Dave reported, the Twins front office is the laughing stock of baseball.

[Bark's Lounge]

I hope Dozier can replicate last season's performance. It is damn fun to have a 40 HR hitter, and maybe with a Buxton emergence, Sano shaking off a sophomore slump, and Eddie Rosario and Kepler taking a step forward, we can have a pretty fun offensive team. I have no belief in the pitching, but you take the good and the bad and deal with it. We can have some fun elements to the 2017 season. It might be watchable?

[CiabanItReal]

 

It was, it was JDL+Alvarez+PTBnL (one of the guys not named Lux who was drafted last year)

Their first rounders last year were Lux, Sheffield and Will Smith (catcher)

[DaveW]

Their first rounders last year were Lux, Sheffield and Will Smith (catcher)

I THINK (can't confirm) the Twins wanted Lux or Smith but the dodgers didn't want to give them up. Take that for what you will.

 

I never did get specific confirmation on exactly WHO were third players offered.

[CiabanItReal]

 

I'm 100% confident that wasn't the case.

Dozier >>> Forsythe and everyone knows that, Twins wouldn't have picked up the phone again if it was just JDL for Dozier, there is a reason why they included Alvarez, Dozier is in his prime, 45+ hr power and a 5-6 WAR 2B

Forsythe is pretty good, really solid OBP and has slugged .444 the last two years with an ops over .790 the last two years. Really solid defender too. Dozier definitely the better base runner though.

That being said, Dozier isn't better enough to justify DeLeon + Alverez+ more compared to Forsythe, while he would be an upgrade over forsythe, he isn't enough of one to make up the difference in price.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

I THINK (can't confirm) the Twins wanted Lux or Smith but the dodgers didn't want to give them up. Take that for what you will.

I never did get specific confirmation on exactly WHO were third players offered.

Theyre 2nd rounder was a college pitcher Mitch white, and their 3rd was a big strong high schooler named Dustin May fwiw.

[gunnarthor]

So, if I'm the Dodgers and I know the Rays will take De Leon in a 1:1, but Dozier would cost De Leon and Alvarez, the Dodgers would take the Rays deal every day.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I'm a little disappointed, but more relieved than anything that this ordeal is over. 

 

Now the Twins can go out and sign some pitchers and one FA outfielder and head to the season!!

[Squirrel]

Moderator warning: As is always the case around issues where there are strong and passionate disagreements, it's difficult to not make/take things personally ... but please try. First off, this isn't a thread about Dave's source. He brought us some information, we discussed it a LOT a LOT a LOT, along with other rumors out there, and it didn't work out. So let's not make it about Dave and his credibility, because that isn't the case. Discuss and disagree all you want, but don't shoot the messenger, no matter what your feelings are about said messenger. Second, when you disagree with people, leave out the snottiness and the smug 'I'm right' attitudes. That's a good way to fire up the making it/taking it personal, and it doesn't further anyone's good points of discussion. Third, as frustrated as we are about the state of the Twins, it's just a game. Be angry if you want. Question the decisions all you want. Make points about what you think should have been done/not done. But do so respectfully of one another, the FO, players here or there, on-field managers, etc. I've been generous about not handing out warning points, but I'm going to continue to be quick-handed at hiding posts and comments that lead to nothing but squabbling.

And the same goes for the other Dozier thread.

Thank you for your consideration.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm a little disappointed, but more relieved than anything that this ordeal is over. 

 

Now the Twins can go out and sign some pitchers and one FA outfielder and head to the season!!

Which free agents are good?