Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[nicksaviking]

The only one of those teams that really matters is the giants, and the dodgers are a better team than the giants.

The Dodgers were a better team last year too but some how only managed to finish four games up and the Dodgers haven't done anything to improve thus far.

[Riverbrian]

 

The only one of those teams that really matters is the giants, and the dodgers are a better team than the giants.

 

Hubris is one of the great renewable resources.   

[jimmer]

 

Really, I notice they tend to over rank recent draft picks based on ceiling, especially mid season, I kind of wish they would give more credence to players succeeding at higher levels.

I remember them ranking Bubba starling top 15 straight out of high school.

The people who do the rankings have actually said that how close the players are to the majors weighs heavily in their rankings.

[CiabanItReal]

 

And that leads me back to the return part and Kinsler is going to require a big package in return. He won't be cheap.

If the Tigers trade Kinsler and give the job to Jones. Retooling or tooling... the Tigers made a trade for 2018 and not 2017 unless the Dodgers are going to give a CF to the Tigers.

I think the Tigers think they have a chance in 2017 because the gang is still there.

They have a lot of OF so they could potentially.

[CiabanItReal]

 

The Dodgers were a better team last year too but some how only managed to finish four games up and the Dodgers haven't done anything to improve thus far.

That's because they got sweat to end the season in 3 meaningless games when they were trying guys out to see who would get post season spots.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

I think the Twins should seriously weigh the risks of holding on to him.  DeLeon + Buehler/Stewart/Calhoun would be pretty close to those three deals and there is less demand for Dozier and reason to believe he's less valuable than at least two of the guys who netted similar deals.  Hanging on to him means he gets older, his team control wanes, and his production may tail back - all of which could jeopardize seeing that kind of deal again.  If the Dodgers (and I know, that's a big if) have offered something like DeLeon and one of those other prospects, it is a serious risk to turn that down.  

 

Given that all the reporting has made it clear that Buehler/Stewart/Calhoun aren't on the table, I think you need to recognize that it is distinctly possible that LA is lowballing MN.  As was noted elsewhere, a package of JDL + Buehler or Stewart + a flier guy like Ruiz or something like that would get this trade done.... in a heart beat.  But none of those guys are on the table.... and I'd add that even if Calhoun was, he isn't really a fit. Given that he is a top 100 prospect, if they will part with Calhoun, I'd think they would part with Stewart or Buehler... but they won't..

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's because they got sweat to end the season in 3 meaningless games when they were trying guys out to see who would get post season spots.

 

I'd be careful with this.  It was still a 4 game lead. Yeah, they could coast, but so could other teams too.  4 games is not a lock to win in 2017.  7 games isn't either. This logic astounds me to be honest.  They have a hole at 2B... a big one. Yeah, they are a likely playoff team, favorites to win their division, and even if SF surges a likely wild card team, but that doesn't minimize the fact that they have a gaping hole at 2B. 

 

Teams in that situation should very much be trying to maximize their odds of a ring.  I get that you wouldn't trade JDL, Alvarez, Verdugo, and Stewart for that, but it shouldn't take that kind of package to get a nice upgrade at 2B.  I would think a much more reasonable package of JDL, Stewart, and possibly a guy like Ruiz would do it... or maybe a 4th C+ type guy that isn't even in their top 20.  That's not unreasonable at all.  It gives LA a 2B, and it gives MN 2 ML ready pitchers and a couple of lotto tickets as insurance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Given that all the reporting has made it clear that Buehler/Stewart/Calhoun aren't on the table, I think you need to recognize that it is distinctly possible that LA is lowballing MN. As was noted elsewhere, a package of JDL + Buehler or Stewart + a flier guy like Ruiz or something like that would get this trade done.... in a heart beat. But none of those guys are on the table.... and I'd add that even if Calhoun was, he isn't really a fit. Given that he is a top 100 prospect, if they will part with Calhoun, I'd think they would part with Stewart or Buehler... but they won't..

Stewart is only excluded because he provides the same current MLB utility as De Leon and they don't want to lose them both.

 

Buehler is excluded because he has the potential to be a top 50 prospect in the very near future.

 

Neither of those factors applies to Calhoun, and his name hasn't been mentioned anywhere yet, so I wouldn't be so certain about writing him off as a potential second piece if the Twins are open to that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would think a much more reasonable package of JDL, Stewart, and possibly a guy like Ruiz would do it... or maybe a 4th C+ type guy that isn't even in their top 20. That's not unreasonable at all. It gives LA a 2B, and it gives MN 2 ML ready pitchers and a couple of lotto tickets as insurance.

I think asking for Stewart in addition to De Leon is sort of unreasonable. It looks fine from a prospect value perspective, but it puts a bit of strain on their MLB club when they are trying to maximize those wins. Kazmir, McCarthy, and Ryu are pretty big suspects going into 2017.

 

Substitute Calhoun for Stewart and I think that proposal functions very similarly. Although we are still left wondering if the Dodgers have offered that, or if the Twins have done anything to indicate they would be willing to accept that offer now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Stewart is only excluded because he provides the same current MLB utility as De Leon and they don't want to lose them both.

Buehler is excluded because he has the potential to be a top 50 prospect in the very near future.

Neither of those factors applies to Calhoun, and his name hasn't been mentioned anywhere yet, so I wouldn't be so certain about writing him off as a potential second piece if the Twins are open to that.

 

Fair enough.  I get the concern with Stewart, but LA still has DeJong in that situation, not to mention a potential fast riser in Buehler.  They have depth even if they part with Stewart, and if they don't want to, then Buehler makes some sense there. 

 

That said, I just don't see why the Twins would want Calhoun. He's a butcher in the field. He can hit, but he's also a small guy, that doesn't fit the typical DH mold... not to mention we have plenty of those already.  If Calhoun is on the table, it might make a lot more sense bringing in a 3rd team who would do a prospect for prospect swap because they need a guy like Calhoun. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Dodgers were a better team last year too but some how only managed to finish four games up and the Dodgers haven't done anything to improve thus far.

Again, re-signing rental Rich Hill is something. Nothing huge, but probably equivalent to the Giants one big offseason move so far (signing Melancon).

[TheLeviathan]

Given that all the reporting has made it clear that Buehler/Stewart/Calhoun aren't on the table, I think you need to recognize that it is distinctly possible that LA is lowballing MN. As was noted elsewhere, a package of JDL + Buehler or Stewart + a flier guy like Ruiz or something like that would get this trade done.... in a heart beat. But none of those guys are on the table.... and I'd add that even if Calhoun was, he isn't really a fit. Given that he is a top 100 prospect, if they will part with Calhoun, I'd think they would part with Stewart or Buehler... but they won't..

I just don't buy the reports because they all stem from LEN. I think there is a distinct chance one of them is on the table. I've already repeatedly recognized the Dodgers may be low balling. It's also possible the Twins have never backed off their initial crazy demands too.

 

We just don't know and we may never know at this rate.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I just don't buy the reports because they all stem from LEN. I think there is a distinct chance one of them is on the table. I've already repeatedly recognized the Dodgers may be low balling. It's also possible the Twins have never backed off their initial crazy demands too.

We just don't know and we may never know at this rate.

 

They don't all stem from LEN.  That's just it.  Plenty of LA sites with contacts in the Dodger's org essentially reiterated that.  

 

F&L have done their fair share of trades, I really don't think this is an attempt to drain the LA farm system or boost their personal egos. There is no shred of anything indicating any other significant piece than JDL.  I think at one point you have to accept that.

[biggentleben]

 

Hitters that were traded for top 40 prospects - Eaton, Lucroy, Gomez etc

 

Only Eaton was traded without a MLB pitcher also part of the deal...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fair enough. I get the concern with Stewart, but LA still has DeJong in that situation, not to mention a potential fast riser in Buehler. They have depth even if they part with Stewart, and if they don't want to, then Buehler makes some sense there.

 

That said, I just don't see why the Twins would want Calhoun. He's a butcher in the field. He can hit, but he's also a small guy, that doesn't fit the typical DH mold... not to mention we have plenty of those already. If Calhoun is on the table, it might make a lot more sense bringing in a 3rd team who would do a prospect for prospect swap because they need a guy like Calhoun.

De Jong is generally considered less than Stewart, as well as behind him (only made 1 start above AA so far). I could see the Dodgers ideally wanting to break camp with either De Leon or Stewart in the rotation.

 

Buehler isn't going to help the MLB team in 2017 like Stewart could. But, with a good first half in the minors, Buehler would have a lot more trade value, maybe enough to swing a blockbuster deal like for Chris Archer. It's a tricky balance.

 

I get the concerns about Calhoun, but compared to the rest of our roster, that contact/power skill set looks pretty special.

[TheLeviathan]

I'll accept it when the smoke clears and the teams move in different directions.  That both have essentially froze all activity which tells me those reports aren't very tuned in.  Both teams at least, on some level, still think something is going to happen.  Or could.  And I don't think that'd be the case if the reports were accurate.

 

[gunnarthor]

Has there been any indication the teams are going to come back to this?  I know Lavine said something like "we'll always listen" but other than that, the Dozier rumor mill has been particularly quiet. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Only Eaton was traded without a MLB pitcher also part of the deal...

And I think that might be a factor here. The Twins have absolutely nothing of MLB value to the Dodgers that they can pair with Dozier right now, which makes it a lot harder to convince them to give up multiple top prospects.

 

I still can't shake the feeling the Dodgers might prefer to use their prospect assets to make a bigger splash, like in a Rays trade (Archer or Colome becoming the headliners, plus Forsythe). Which might not come until July...

[Otto von Ballpark]

As long as neither team has yet to go a different direction, I consider the deal open even if talks are not remotely active at the moment. Feb. 10 or so is my next time deadline -- after that, it would probably wait until June or July.

[beckmt]

 

Why would Cesar Hernandez have a bigger price tag? That makes no sense whatsoever....

5 years of control, and the possibility he could be really good. Clubs do not give that up without a great return.

[beckmt]

 

The only one of those teams that really matters is the giants, and the dodgers are a better team than the giants.

Problem is in the playoffs the Giants have Bum, who has turned into the best postseason pitcher in a long time.  He is left handed, how will the Dodgers do against him(they won't with their current lineup).

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 years of control, and the possibility he could be really good. Clubs do not give that up without a great return.

Actually only 4 years, all at arb prices (Hernandez is a super 2 qualifier). I don't know that he has a ton of upside either -- he strikes me as a utility guy who had a solid season, and he will be 27 in May. Shades of Escobar?

 

Don't get me wrong, the Phillies probably aren't likely to move him at the moment, but they'd probably listen to offers similar to those made for Dozier.

[Han Joelo]

 

As long as neither team has yet to go a different direction, I consider the deal open even if talks are not remotely active at the moment. Feb. 10 or so is my next time deadline -- after that, it would probably wait until June or July.

This is where I am at.  This has been like watching a junior high romance.  They're currently "not interested" publicly, and trying to date other people, but they and everybody knows they were meant for each other.

 

Personally, I'll feel best about whatever the eventual outcome is if it in fact happens at the last minute (before ST).  Otherwise, I'd always be left wondering if they could've squeezed out a little bit more.  And I'd feel the same way if I was a Dodger fan, only opposite.  (This assuming neither FO caved to a lopsided deal.  Which, obviously, hasn't happened.)

[sampleSizeOfOne]

No man ever steps into the same river twice. 

 

For it's not the same river and he is not the same man.

 

If a man steps foot in a river... what does he do with his other foot?

 

Are we doomed to stand like a heron? Without a long beak and a quick neck to pounce at unsuspecting Dodger prospects?

 

Knee deep in the big muddy, and the trade rumors are said to press on.

[Thegrin]

Don't you wish we had Span for the last 5 seasons ? What kind of difference would he have made ?

...but ...but... Alex Meyer looked soooooo good!

 

Keep Dozier and trade Polanco for a pitching prospect.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Don't you wish we had Span for the last 5 seasons ? What kind of difference would he have made ?

...but ...but... Alex Meyer looked soooooo good!

 

Keep Dozier and trade Polanco for a pitching prospect.

 

What kind of prospect do you think we'd get?

[Strato Guy]

 

Don't you wish we had Span for the last 5 seasons ? What kind of difference would he have made ?

...but ...but... Alex Meyer looked soooooo good!

 

Keep Dozier and trade Polanco for a pitching prospect.

Span would have given us a decent leadoff hitter which would enable Dozier not have to bat leadoff. Homerun hitters are not fully utilized unless they are batting down in the order where they are more base runners on base.

 

I would not be opposed to trading Polanco. How about a trade involving him and Stewart?

[TyTY23]

 

Problem is in the playoffs the Giants have Bum, who has turned into the best postseason pitcher in a long time.  He is left handed, how will the Dodgers do against him(they won't with their current lineup).

The Dodgers actually performed fairly well against Bum during the regular season. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

The Dodgers were a better team last year too but some how only managed to finish four games up and the Dodgers haven't done anything to improve thus far.

The Dodgers set a MLB record for most players on the DL last year and were still 2 games from the World Series.  Turner and Grandal were coming off of rehabs.  They had 5 rookie pitchers make starts for them last season that all have more experience.  Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, and Julio Urias will have a lot more starts for the 2017 Dodgers.  Corey Seager won't be a rookie either.  All things that improve the team. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Given that all the reporting has made it clear that Buehler/Stewart/Calhoun aren't on the table, I think you need to recognize that it is distinctly possible that LA is lowballing MN.  As was noted elsewhere, a package of JDL + Buehler or Stewart + a flier guy like Ruiz or something like that would get this trade done.... in a heart beat.  But none of those guys are on the table.... and I'd add that even if Calhoun was, he isn't really a fit. Given that he is a top 100 prospect, if they will part with Calhoun, I'd think they would part with Stewart or Buehler... but they won't..

It has never been reported that Calhoun or Verdugo aren't on the table.  This discussion thread has expanded a list that was Bellinger, Alvarez, Buehler, and maybe Stewart.