Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[jimmer]

Lee,

 

Is there a reason you keep mentioning the Angels' list?

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

The irony was that gunnathor made a sarcastic remark about prospects "not missing" and you're already telling us our future pitching will be fine based on projecting two guys in AA as part of our rotation.   As a Twins fan I hope your projection gets lucky and comes true, but as something to plan around that is a huge mistake.  

I mentioned two by name, but obviously there are more!!

 

And if we are not to "plan around" prospects in the future, then why trade Dozier at all? Wouldn't the Dodgers be just giving us more of those unplannable prospects? 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Lee,

 

Is there a reason you keep mentioning the Angels' list?

You are right, They are the Dodgers. My mistake!

 

 

[jimmer]

 

You are right, They are the Dodgers. My mistake!

I thought maybe there was some kind of list I could look at that I didn't know about.  

 

P.S., for me, MLB dot com rankings give too much importance to how close the player is to the majors.  I'd rather a prospect list just focus on the talent of the prospect and the projectability of them.  Alvarez deserves much higher than 90s.

 

In any event.  Did I read your post below right? You believe 2 years of Dozier is worth De Leon, Stewart AND one or two more prospects?

 

'I'm suggesting two starting pitchers able to come into the Twins' rotation in 2017, plus one or two low A or A level prospects. De Leon and Stewart fit the first part of that bill - but they're hardly equal. I want two starters who have gone through their paces at the AA and AAA levels, pitched at least 120 innings last year (I believe De Leon fell short of that, though) – in essence two guys i reasonably believe can start games and have success at the MLB level in 2017. That and one or two 'lottery ticket' types.

 

What would those one or two prospects be?

[TheLeviathan]

 

As I've said before, that's what Dozier is worth. If the Dodgers and other teams don't want to meet that price, then I'd keep Dozier. He has value for the Twins in 2017.

 

What someone is "worth" is at least partially in the eye of the person trading for them though, isn't it?  Everyone in the league isn't meeting the demand you have set forth, so perhaps your valuation is too high.

 

Getting a good pitching staff together requires a lot of bullets to fire at the problem.  The more prospects you have, the more you protect yourself against busts.  So adding one top flight arm (at least by prospect rankings) and another solid one helps to do that.

 

For me, holding on to Dozier severely complicates our ability to contend again.  We won't contend without serious pitching reinforcements and if the only ones on the way are our AA pitchers, that is taking an enormous risk.  Not only in terms of how few of them we're betting on, but by how far away they still are.  By the time those guys are up we're 3-4 years into our team control window with Buxton and Sano.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

In any event.  Did I read your post below right? You believe 2 years of Dozier is worth De Leon, Stewart AND one or two more prospects?

 

'I'm suggesting two starting pitchers able to come into the Twins' rotation in 2017, plus one or two low A or A level prospects. De Leon and Stewart fit the first part of that bill - but they're hardly equal. I want two starters who have gone through their paces at the AA and AAA levels, pitched at least 120 innings last year (I believe De Leon fell short of that, though) – in essence two guys i reasonably believe can start games and have success at the MLB level in 2017. That and one or two 'lottery ticket' types.

 

What would those one or two prospects be?

I would say one or two lower level prospects – from my understanding each team might submit a list and see if any candidates match. I'm suggesting one or two drafted in the later rounds, in rookie or A ball, that are not on the Dodger's top 50-prospects list. If you want names, I'd have to do some research.

 

The reason I would ask for this is to mitigate the possibility that both De Leon and Stewart falter at the major league level. When you're trading your best player (and I believe Dozier was the Twins' best player in 2016) it's all about mitigating risk. 

 

You might not think there's much risk with De Leon and Stewart. But think about this: De Leon was injured for part of the year last year. Stewart rose up very fast through the Dodgers' system and hasn't always been a starter. (In 2014, he was in rookie ball, and started only 1 of 17 games). There is a level of risk with each of them, far more than with Dozier.

 

I mentioned earlier that I'd be willing to trade Dozier for an established MLB-level #2 or #3 starting pitcher. That's because an established pitcher carries a little less risk than a prospect. Yes, they might not be with the team as long, but their value per year will likely be higher.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

They don't necessarily need to rebuild to move Kinsler. They could simply be retooling. There are guys in their system right now that could do well to cover certain positions that would allow them to consider offers on guys like Kinsler, JD, Upton, and Victor without it being a full scale rebuild.

 

Heck, they could still compete while moving Kinsler, depending on what it is that they're looking to get in return.

And that leads me back to the return part and Kinsler is going to require a big package in return. He won't be cheap.

 

If the Tigers trade Kinsler and give the job to Jones. Retooling or tooling... the Tigers made a trade for 2018 and not 2017 unless the Dodgers are going to give a CF to the Tigers.

 

I think the Tigers think they have a chance in 2017 because the gang is still there.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

A team shouldn't have to give up two very strong prospects for only two years of Dozier.  I'd love them to, but it's too much.  Some say well prospects are just that, not guarantees, and that's fine.  But all players are prospects at one time or another. If we're looking for guarantees on a player/players we get in return for Dozier, there aren't any.  At least none that we'll get 6 years of control each over. None.  Because none have played enough/at all at the major league level.  On top of that, I keep reading how we shouldn't trade Dozier for prospects cause there's no guarantee we'll get a #2 type pitcher. Two years of Dozier isn't worth 6 years of a #2 type pitcher.

First bolded part first: De Leon is a very strong prospect, but with risk – he was injured last year, and didn't have a hugely successful MLB debut. But he is a very strong prospect. Brock Stewart is not on MLB's 2016 top 100 prospects; he's 17th on the Dodgers' prospect list. I don't consider him a "very strong prospect" Strong, yes, not very strong. He also moved through the Dodgers' system very fast, and also did not have a hugely successful MLB debut. But he is a strong – not very strong – prospect.

 

The second bolded part. No one is saying (I don't think) that two years of Dozier is worth 6 years of a #2 type starting pitcher. The proposal is De Leon, Stewart and maybe one or two lottery-type prospects (low prospects, in rookie or A-ball, not on the Dodgers' top 50 list). De Leon and/or Stewart MAY develop into #2 starters. They may not develop beyond #5 starters. They are PROSPECTS, not #2 starters, at least not yet. They've both been at the MLB level in 2016, so I assume they have five years of control left each. If the Dodgers and Twins make this deal, it's a risk – for both teams. De Leon and/or Stewart may develop nicely. They may not. Dozier could be a top-three 2B for the next two years and hit 40 homers a year, keeping his batting average up and delivering great fielding, or he could revert to a top-15 2B, hitting 20 homers in the next two years.

 

We're talking about mitigating risks for both teams. Chances are, if the trade is not made, and De Leon and Stewart stay with the Dodgers, they could both be in AAA in 2017, or up and down, or one in the rotation for most of the year. If with the Twins, it would be more likely one or both of them would be in the rotation, given the state of the Twins' rotation.

 

That's why Dozier, who barring injury will play 2B for some MLB team, is worth De Leon, Stewart (or comparable pieces) and two low-level prospects.

[brvama]

As I have read and enjoyed the comments, there seems to be two areas that are driving most of the discussion. By all means continue.

 

First is the "valuation" of each side of a Dozier to LAD trade. But in most cases I see most are close to expected return for Dozier, but there is a bit of difference on the valuation of those offered. That is exactly the same dilemma the teams have. For me I have no idea other than what ya'll tell me.

 

The second thing is regarding whether to walk away or just make the trade. IDK, but it seems to me that most everyone agree on this item also. However, there is a disconnect on the language/interpretation of the arguments presented. It's like if I said, "Look at that dog with one eye." Do I use one eye to look or does the dog have one eye.

 

Just my observation!

[Mike Sixel]

I wholly disagree... Yes, we need pitching. But not "desperately". I would rather have Dozier for 2017 than trade him for one prospect SP, or one prospect SP and a 'lottery ticket' or two. You do that (consistently) and the Twins will never be successful. The Twins need two near MLB-ready starting pitchers (such as De Leon and Stewart) plus one or two 'lottery tickets' for Dozier.

 

The Twins are not in a desperate situation here. (Neither are the Dodgers btw.) The Twins have some very good prospects on the way up – including Romero and Gonsalves, plus some talent, like Berrios. They will have the arms to contend in 2019 (or sooner). Plus, there will be better SP free agents next offseason.

 

Those who argue 'we must trade Dozier for a prospect or two,' should remember we still have to play 2017 and 18 – with or without him. To trade Dozier for SP prospects who won't be ready in 2017 or 2018 is pure foolishness, IMHO. We need 2 SP we can plug into the rotation in 2017, if we are to compete. If we don't get that, I'd rather have Dozier's bat in the lineup and his leadership in the clubhouse.

A 59 win team isn't desperate to get better over the long term or short term? If the twins aren't desperate to get better, given the last five years, when would they be?

[jimmer]

 

A 59 win team isn't desperate to get better over the long term or short term? If the twins aren't desperate to get better, given the last five years, when would they be?

After Buxton and Sano are gone? Risk aversion is the key to building a strong, sustainable, playoff caliber team. jk all ;-)

[biggentleben]

 

And that leads me back to the return part and Kinsler is going to require a big package in return. He won't be cheap.

If the Tigers trade Kinsler and give the job to Jones. Retooling or tooling... the Tigers made a trade for 2018 and not 2017 unless the Dodgers are going to give a CF to the Tigers.

I think the Tigers think they have a chance in 2017 because the gang is still there.

 

Thing is, they could do just that. They have the players near the major leagues that could play in center for the Tigers.

[USAFChief]

It's like if I said, "Look at that dog with one eye." Do I use one eye to look or does the dog have one eye.Just my observation!

Um...yes?

 

 

 

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[USAFChief]

A 59 win team isn't desperate to get better over the long term or short term? If the twins aren't desperate to get better, given the last five years, when would they be?

And desperate people often do stupid things. Lets hope the Twins don't.

[AZTwin]

A 59 win team isn't desperate to get better over the long term or short term? If the twins aren't desperate to get better, given the last five years, when would they be?

A 59 win team can improve dramatically if it clicks upstairs for many of our top prospects that have come up (sano, buxton, kepler, berrios, even rosario). I wouldn't be shocked if were in position to trade for a starting SP at the break

[Riverbrian]

 

Thing is, they could do just that. They have the players near the major leagues that could play in center for the Tigers.

 

What do you think the Tigers would require for Kinsler?

 

You agree that Kinsler would cost quite a bit?

[biggentleben]

 

What do you think the Tigers would require for Kinsler?

 

You agree that Kinsler would cost quite a bit?

 

i think it depends on what angle the Tigers are going for...they could load someone like Anibal Sanchez or Mike Pelfrey onto Kinsler and take a lesser deal in order to drain off cash, or they could go straight up and harvest more prospects. All depends on what they want.

 

The Dodgers could lead an offer for Kinsler with Trayce Thompson or Andrew Toles and make a big dent in the price. Heck, if the Tigers are attaching an expensive arm to Kinsler, that may be all it took.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

i think it depends on what angle the Tigers are going for...they could load someone like Anibal Sanchez or Mike Pelfrey onto Kinsler and take a lesser deal in order to drain off cash, or they could go straight up and harvest more prospects. All depends on what they want.

 

The Dodgers could lead an offer for Kinsler with Trayce Thompson or Andrew Toles and make a big dent in the price. Heck, if the Tigers are attaching an expensive arm to Kinsler, that may be all it took.

Hmmm...

The Tigers have money, too.  Maybe not LA Dodgers money, but pretty close. Both Pelfrey and Sanchez come off the books at the end of 2017.  I don't see them as a team concerned with dumping salary.

And Jones is a wild card. Likely a huge drop off in production from Kinsler.

I agree that the Dodgers could offer an OF that might look attractive to the Tigers, but the Dodgers already feel they need to improve their OF.  Maybe they could give Toles and Calhoun to the Tigers and roll with Verdugo in the OF.  This all depends how easy Kinsler is going to make it for the Dodgers, too.

 

Off topic: looking at the Dodgers top prospects, do the Dodgers even know anybody who bats right handed?

[Riverbrian]

i think it depends on what angle the Tigers are going for...they could load someone like Anibal Sanchez or Mike Pelfrey onto Kinsler and take a lesser deal in order to drain off cash, or they could go straight up and harvest more prospects. All depends on what they want.

 

The Dodgers could lead an offer for Kinsler with Trayce Thompson or Andrew Toles and make a big dent in the price. Heck, if the Tigers are attaching an expensive arm to Kinsler, that may be all it took.

Thanks Ben.

 

I can't see either scenerio happening but I do enjoy the discussion.

 

In my opinion... Kinsler for a CF is the closest possibility however the Tigers will ask for more than a CF and I'm just gonna be shocked if the Tigers self inflict any more damage on 2017 for 2018 gain.

 

Of course if the Tigers are 12 games back in July. I could see them selling off pieces immediately right before they fire Avila and Ausmus.

 

Kinsler should cost as much or more than Dozier.

[biggentleben]

 

Hmmm...

The Tigers have money, too.  Maybe not LA Dodgers money, but pretty close. Both Pelfrey and Sanchez come off the books at the end of 2017.  I don't see them as a team concerned with dumping salary.

And Jones is a wild card. Likely a huge drop off in production from Kinsler.

I agree that the Dodgers could offer an OF that might look attractive to the Tigers, but the Dodgers already feel they need to improve their OF.  Maybe they could give Toles and Calhoun to the Tigers and roll with Verdugo in the OF.  This all depends how easy Kinsler is going to make it for the Dodgers, too.

 

Off topic: looking at the Dodgers top prospects, do the Dodgers even know anybody who bats right handed?

 

True, but the comments have been that they want to shed money from the current roster. Those were misinterpreted as "tear this MFer down!" for some reason by some reporters, but the true quotes all talked about finding ways to wisely trim salary. That could be a way to chop off a big chunk.

[biggentleben]

 

Thanks Ben.

I can't see either scenerio happening but I do enjoy the discussion.

In my opinion... Kinsler for a CF is the closest possibility however the Tigers will ask for more than a CF and I'm just gonna be shocked if the Tigers self inflict any more damage on 2017 for 2018 gain.

Of course if the Tigers are 12 games back in July. I could see them selling off pieces immediately right before they fire Avila and Ausmus.

Kinsler should cost as much or more than Dozier.

 

I completely understand and respect that position, but he'll also be 35 in June and for all the talk about Dozier's career year in 2016, 2016 was Kinsler's second best offensive season by OPS+ as well, as well as his first year ever striking out 100+ times in a season as well as hitting less than 30 doubles in a season that he was healthy for the first time in a decade. From the eye view, the bat speed has taken a noticeable step back, but he gets by on incredible baseball smarts on the field and on the bases to provide value to his team.

 

I could understand reasoning on both ends - the argument for why Kinsler's track record says he's the more valuable guy and the argument for why Dozier's youth and relative cost savings ($16M guaranteed to Kinsler - $11M 2017 salary and $12M 2018 option with $5M buyout, $15M to Dozier - $6M 2017 and $9M 2018).

[gunnarthor]

Looking at other trades over the years, the idea that Dozier should get a top 35ish pitcher in De Leon and a backend non top 100 prospect like Stewart is a pretty bad deal for the Twins.  Dozier should be worth roughly 8 WAR for the Dodgers over two years - the Gomez/Friers deal, the Giles deal, the Lucroy deal, the Zorbrist deal have shown the spending team has to pay a lot more than De Leon/Stewart.

 

I said that the Twins should expect two top 100 prospects - one in the top 40 and the other in the 50-80 range - plus two lottery tickets.  That seems reasonable.  If they Twins don't get that, don't trade Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Looking at other trades over the years, the idea that Dozier should get a top 35ish pitcher in De Leon and a backend non top 100 prospect like Stewart is a pretty bad deal for the Twins.  Dozier should be worth roughly 8 WAR for the Dodgers over two years - the Gomez/Friers deal, the Giles deal, the Lucroy deal, the Zorbrist deal have shown the spending team has to pay a lot more than De Leon/Stewart.

 

I said that the Twins should expect two top 100 prospects - one in the top 40 and the other in the 50-80 range - plus two lottery tickets.  That seems reasonable.  If they Twins don't get that, don't trade Dozier.

I have no problems with people saying "don't trade Dozier". I don't really agree but it's a reasonable take.

 

The deal appears to be something along the lines of "De Leon + a decent but not top 100 prospect". That's a pretty meager return on a player of Dozier's calibre but given the circumstances, I'd probably take it because Dozier has so little value to the 2017 (and likely 2018) Twins.

 

I'm not throwing shade on Dozier, that's just kinda the reality of the situation. Not only are the Twins expected to stink in 2017 but keeping Dozier forces the Twins to play Polanco at short, a position he has no business playing on an MLB team.

[gunnarthor]

 

I have no problems with people saying "don't trade Dozier". I don't really agree but it's a reasonable take.

 

The deal appears to be something along the lines of "De Leon + a decent but not top 100 prospect". That's a pretty meager return on a player of Dozier's calibre but given the circumstances, I'd probably take it because Dozier has so little value to the 2017 (and likely 2018) Twins.

 

 

How much value did Lucroy have to the Brewers?  They got the #15 and # 52 prospects for him plus a AAAA player.  I think it's hard to argue that 1.5 years of Lucroy was that much more valuable to the Rangers than 2 years of Dozier would be to the Dodgers, and the Brewers were going nowhere.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How much value did Lucroy have to the Brewers?  They got the #15 and # 52 prospects for him plus a AAAA player.  I think it's hard to argue that 1.5 years of Lucroy was that much more valuable to the Rangers than 2 years of Dozier would be to the Dodgers, and the Brewers were going nowhere.

Oh, I agree, if we're talking strictly about on-field value of players.

 

But without other teams vying for Dozier's services, there simply isn't a reason for the Dodgers to break open the farm and shell out prospects.

 

It's unfortunate for the Twins but sometimes, a soft market at a position just kinda screws you because you can't time this sort of thing.

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier isn't nearly as valuable as LuCroy.  Why would we expect the same return for him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

How much value did Lucroy have to the Brewers? They got the #15 and # 52 prospects for him plus a AAAA player. I think it's hard to argue that 1.5 years of Lucroy was that much more valuable to the Rangers than 2 years of Dozier would be to the Dodgers, and the Brewers were going nowhere.

Lucroy had multiple suitors offering that kind of deal. Dozier doesn't even have one.

[gunnarthor]

 

Dozier isn't nearly as valuable as LuCroy.  Why would we expect the same return for him?

By what metric?  By WAR, Dozier has been the better player, by years of control, Dozier is more valuable.  Dozier is more durable. If you want to argue that catchers have more value because they're catchers, fine, but LuCroy was also coming off of concussion injuries so that should limit it somewhat. Even if you think LuCroy is more valuable, it can't be that much more valuable.  Maybe instead of a top 15, top 50 and AAAA type, you think Dozier is worth a top 30, a top 100 and a lottery ticket. 

[USAFChief]

Dozier isn't nearly as valuable as LuCroy.  Why would we expect the same return for him?

Wha??

[gunnarthor]

 

 

Lucroy had multiple suitors offering that kind of deal. Dozier doesn't even have one.

Sure, there may be a supply/demand issue but that shouldn't stop the Twins from demanding a high return.  You see the same value exchange in the other deals, as well.  Is De Leon + junk really a better offer than Manaea and the relief arm the A's got for a half season of Zorbrist? 

 

There should be no reason (or acceptance) to trade Dozier for 60 cents on the dollar.