Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Maybe.  We've heard the extremes, we haven't heard the middle ground.

 

Most of that "off the table" talk was based on LEN's poorly written article. 

yes, but I do believe DodgerBlue confirmed that.  I'm pretty sure it got posted in here at some point, though I'm way too lazy to go back and find it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

yes, but I do believe DodgerBlue confirmed that.  I'm pretty sure it got posted in here at some point, though I'm way too lazy to go back and find it.

 

I guess I just see that article as the point at which all reports got fuzzy.  I can't tell what's incestuous reposting/rephrasing of his article and what is independently confirmed.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Sorry, off topic a bit (though it is about Dozier) I'm watching MLB Network and man, Heyman is basically not worth listening to at all.

 

He has Dozier at 7th at 2B (that's low, but whatever.  Verduccci has him 5th on same show), and Heyman doesn't even say anything about him when he points out power at the position.  He makes a comment about everyone in his top 10 2B besides Dozier, and even forgets it's Dozier he had at #7, not Pedroia.

 

'Pedroia, I might have him a little low at 7 (and he actually has Dozier at #7 and Pedroia #8).'

 

Interesting...

Even FanGraphs seems to think Dozier is going to fall off a cliff. They have him projected as a 3.1 WAR player in 2017.

 

This for a guy who has averaged 4.425 WAR over the last 4 years and is getting stronger every year.

[jimmer]

 

Interesting...

Even FanGraphs seems to think Dozier is going to fall off a cliff. They have him projected as a 3.1 WAR player in 2017.

 

This for a guy who has averaged 4.425 WAR over the last 4 years and is getting stronger every year.

Steamer isn't created by anyone at Fangraphs, but they do give the info.  I never use Steamer.

 

ZiPS projections, created by a guy who also doesn't work at Fangraphs but does do a weekly chat there,has him at 4.3.  I have always preferred ZiPS, and here's another example of why.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I guess I just see that article as the point at which all reports got fuzzy.  I can't tell what's incestuous reposting/rephrasing of his article and what is independently confirmed.

 

It was, no question about it. I find it odd though that the Dodgers haven't leaked anything indicating they've offered more, and the people close to their organization have been saying the same thing too. 

[biggentleben]

As far as the Angels are concerned, they have a rough system, but they have brought in a number of high-ceiling/low-floor type of players. If Thaiss is raking like no one's business in AA in July, is there a monster difference between he and Bellinger? They have a few guys who could be high-end guys in a year.

[Riverbrian]

 

Sorry, off topic a bit (though it is about Dozier) I'm watching MLB Network and man, Heyman is basically not worth listening to at all.

 

He has Dozier at 7th at 2B (that's low, but whatever.  Verduccci has him 5th on same show), and Heyman doesn't even say anything about him when he points out power at the position.  He makes a comment about everyone in his top 10 2B besides Dozier, and even forgets it's Dozier he had at #7, not Pedroia.

 

'Pedroia, I might have him a little low at 7 (and he actually has Dozier at #7 and Pedroia #8).'

 

I'll use this opportunity to post mine. I'm not into ranking prospects sight unseen but I will proudly post my opinions on Major league players.

Not knowing the criteria that they used to compile their lists. I will state that my list will remove all considerations such as contract or age... basically anything that can dramatically alter value.

My list will be simply chosen from which player will help you win in 2017... My Health Spidey Sense assumptions with no medical degree will be part of my consideration... Sorry Neil Walker... This is of course... In my opinion.

1.  Altuve -- He's so #1 that #2 and #3 will have to be moved down to #4 and #5

4. Cano
5. Dozier
6. Murphy - Love his Bat but I don't think he's a 2B... Should be playing a different position and I penalize him for it. 
7. Baez - I'm projecting him up because I think he is going to be a monster. I think he will display himself in 2017. 
8. Kinsler - Dropping Kinsler down to this spot is rough but I like the other 5 guys better.
9. Odor - He still has some proving to do but he could climb this list quickly.
11. Kipnis - After Odor there is a drop off so I'm making Kipnis 11 instead of 10. 
12. Pedroia
13. LeMahieu - I know DJ probably deserves better and I'm not trying to knock him as a player but... I think he belongs in this Kipnis... Pedroia Group.

That's my Top 10

Now back to the what is Dozier and DeLeon worth Discussion.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I'm not convinced De Leon is even a must-have for the Twins. All along it's felt to me like Friedman selling high on De Leon because he doesn't really believe in him.

There's nothing wrong with asking why would a team trade a prospect if he's actually good as advertised.  In this case the answer is Kershaw, Urias, Hill, Maeda, McCarthy, Kazmir, Wood, Ryu,  Deleon, and Stewart all fighting for 5 spots while the Dodgers are running out of options when it comes to places where they could move Kazmir and/or McCarthy.  The Dodgers aren't moving Kershaw, Hill or Urias so out of the other  7 pitchers which has the most value to acquire a good Second Baseman?  JDL was almost the main piece in a Hamels trade when Texas got him a couple of years ago.  He's now big league ready.  It's not a matter of they don't believe in him.  They are trying to get value for value while being stuck with two turds, (McCarthy and Kazmir), that they can't move.  And no one is counting on Ryu to have any value in a deal until he proves he can pitch again.  

[jorgenswest]

Steamer isn't created by anyone at Fangraphs, but they do give the info.  I never use Steamer.

 

ZiPS projections, created by a guy who also doesn't work at Fangraphs but does do a weekly chat there,has him at 4.3.  I have always preferred ZiPS, and here's another example of why.

Grading the projection systems based on 2016. Steamer did quite well

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

 

2015 - Steamer again did quite well

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/1/14/10733872/steamer-zips-pecota-marcel-projections-review

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

According to several sources close to the situation, who have been cited in this thread... both are off the table. 

I don't think Stewart is off the table.  I think he's off the table as a second piece in this deal due to the injury histories of Kazmir, Ryu, and McCarthy.

 

No interest in Wood Twins fans?  I think he would be a nice pick up myself. 

[Riverbrian]

 

No prob, sorry if I was a little tough on you there. I do think these broader points kind of obscure some relevant specifics of this particular situation. De Leon level pitching prospects/packages are not that common, for example. The probability of another one cropping up soon to match a contender need at 2B, without additional names entering the 2B market, is pretty low.

 

Honestly... If I looked deep into my heart... The broader point of "things change" is true but not really the biggest point on how I truly feel.

 

#1...  Without even knowing what was offered... I'm pretty sure that Friedman wouldn't take the deal he is offering. Friedman is too good at this. He's not going to pay $2 when he knows that $1 is the best offer outside Southern California. I don't blame him but it doesn't mean that we should take the $1. 

 

#2... The trade is too perfect... Dozier fits perfectly with the Dodgers needs and everybody involved has to know that and the Dodgers are perfect for the Twins because they have the extra arms and everybody involved has to know that. The Twins need to quit asking for $3 and the Dodgers need to quit offering $1 and just complete the trade already. Forget the market... look at each other as gentlemen and complete the deal.  

 

#3... In my opinion... The Dodgers need Dozier more than the Twins need to move Dozier and keeping Dozier is our only leverage and I would never give that away. 

 

#4... I'd rather Falvey/Lavine eat Dozier for the next couple of years than give the Dodgers exactly what they want. The 2B they need while they give up the prospects they are comfortable giving up. 

 

#5... There is more than one way to skin a cat. I'm hopeful the front office can improve the team with or without Dozier on the roster.  

 

#6... Things Change... Dozier may regress a little or lot but the 2B market may change as well and if it changes for the worse... so be it. Dozier is one of us.  

 

The "Things change" Broader point... is just my response to the Dozier diminishing in value... we must take whatever we can get now concern. The 2B market is unfortunately soft right now.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

#3... In my opinion... The Dodgers need Dozier more than the Twins need to move Dozier and keeping Dozier is our only leverage and I would never give that away.

 

 

Could not disagree more.  The Dodgers lost to the eventual Champ in 6 games with Chase Utley at 2B.  They can find an equivalent to Utley for far less cost and look for a bigger patch later if they choose and still be one of the top teams in the NL.

 

We lost 103 games because our pitching is the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.  We need pitching way more than the Dodgers need a 2B. 

[Riverbrian]

 

What about the other half of the issue?Dozier's profile, do you unload your best trade chips for a guy with what looks like one outlier season without serious doubts about what you are getting in return?

 

 

It can look like "one outlier season"

 

It also can look like a 4 year trend upward. 

 

If I'm the Dodgers... Dozier is the guy I'd want and he'd bat 3rd in the lineup behind Seager and in front of A Gon. 

[Riverbrian]

 

So you'd take DeLeon and Buehler, give or take.  That's fine.  That's fair.

 

That's what most all of us on the pro-trade bandwagon are arguing for too.  

 

I think the majority of the Anti-Trade bandwagon would be ok with something like that as well. 

[mickeymental]

What a difference a day makes
Twenty-four little hours
Brought the sun and the flowers
Where there used to be rain

My yesterday was blue, dear
Today I'm a part of you, dear
My lonely nights are through, dear
Since you said you were mine

[TheLeviathan]

 

It can look like "one outlier season"

 

It also can look like a 4 year trend upward. 

 

If I'm the Dodgers... Dozier is the guy I'd want and he'd bat 3rd in the lineup behind Seager and in front of A Gon. 

 

If you look at Dozier and see upward trend....you are a GM I would try to trade with all the time.  

[Riverbrian]

 

Could not disagree more.  The Dodgers lost to the eventual Champ in 6 games with Chase Utley at 2B.  They can find an equivalent to Utley for far less cost and look for a bigger patch later if they choose and still be one of the top teams in the NL.

 

We lost 103 games because our pitching is the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.  We need pitching way more than the Dodgers need a 2B. 

 

Yes they did and that's great if your goal is to win with the least amount of talent possible. 

 

The Dodgers have the 200 million dollar payroll and the high expectations. 

 

Losing 103 games lowers the expectations quite a bit. DeLeon isn't going to move the expectation needle enough so the Twins have a little time.  

 

I'm reasonably sure that the 2B market is soft for sellers and buyers right now. If they thought it was hard to get Dozier when the Twins are selling... They will probably find it hard to acquire a different 2B from a team that isn't selling and most are not.

 

If they don't get Dozier... they maybe calling Utley again and that's great if you are trying to beat the Cubs with the least amount of talent possible. 

 

I think the Dodgers need Dozier more 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

If you look at Dozier and see upward trend....you are a GM I would try to trade with all the time.  

 

I'd take your call Levi

 

 

[jimmer]

 

I'll use this opportunity to post mine. I'm not into ranking prospects sight unseen but I will proudly post my opinions on Major league players.

Not knowing the criteria that they used to compile their lists. I will state that my list will remove all considerations such as contract or age... basically anything that can dramatically alter value.

My list will be simply chosen from which player will help you win in 2017... My Health Spidey Sense assumptions with no medical degree will be part of my consideration... Sorry Neil Walker... This is of course... In my opinion.

1.  Altuve -- He's so #1 that #2 and #3 will have to be moved down to #4 and #5

4. Cano
5. Dozier
6. Murphy - Love his Bat but I don't think he's a 2B... Should be playing a different position and I penalize him for it. 
7. Baez - I'm projecting him up because I think he is going to be a monster. I think he will display himself in 2017. 
8. Kinsler - Dropping Kinsler down to this spot is rough but I like the other 5 guys better.
9. Odor - He still has some proving to do but he could climb this list quickly.
11. Kipnis - After Odor there is a drop off so I'm making Kipnis 11 instead of 10. 
12. Pedroia
13. LeMahieu - I know DJ probably deserves better and I'm not trying to knock him as a player but... I think he belongs in this Kipnis... Pedroia Group.

That's my Top 10

Now back to the what is Dozier and DeLeon worth Discussion.

Verducci and Heyman both had Cano at #1, even though Altuve is much younger than Cano and Altuve was 3rd in 2015 and 1st in 2016, while Cano wasn't even top 10 in 2015 and 2nd in 2016.

[Riverbrian]

 

Verducci and Heyman both had Cano at #1, even though Altuve is much younger than Cano and Altuve was 3rd in 2015 and 1st in 2016, while Cano wasn't even top 10 in 2015 and 2nd in 2016.

 

Mmm... Funny how "things change" from year to year. 

 

I won't knock Cano... He's extraordinary.

 

However... it's not even a debate for me... It's Altuve.  

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Grading the projection systems based on 2016. Steamer did quite well

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded

2015 - Steamer again did quite well

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/1/14/10733872/steamer-zips-pecota-marcel-projections-review

Well, that's one judge of systems and there's going to be variance.  For example, in 2014, Zips was #1 according to hardball times.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/evaluating-the-2014-projection-systems/

 

[jimmer]

 

Mmm... Funny how "things change" from year to year. 

 

I won't knock Cano... He's extraordinary.

 

However... it's not even a debate for me... It's Altuve.  

yeah, I wouldn't suggest Cano was ever, talent-wise, not a top 10 2B in the last decade or so  Just by performance that year, he had an off year.

 

For me, I can't get behind the idea a 34 year old 2B, even one as great as Cano has been, is better than a guy who is at the top of the position and is just entering his prime.

 

P.S., I think some forget how GREAT Pedroia has been practically his whole career including last year.  

 

In the last 10 years, he's

 

1: only had one year with a WAR below 3 (and that's because he was injured and played less than 100 games).

2. only had three years with a WAR under 4.0.

3. had 4 years with an ERA over 5.0 (and two of them over 6.0)

[TheLeviathan]

 

If they don't get Dozier... they maybe calling Utley again and that's great if you are trying to beat the Cubs with the least amount of talent possible. 

 

I think the Dodgers need Dozier more 

 

C'mon, you know that characterization isn't fair.  They aren't choosing to "have the least talent", they're choosing to save their best chips to acquire either a better player, or acquire a need later in the year rather than unload for a guy that they have legitimate reasons to doubt.  

 

Plus, the playoffs are a crap shoot, they have every reason to believe they are a playoff team without Dozier.  (Because...they were) They can save all their best assets for July and go for it then.

 

Us?  Our pitching sucks and we know it.  And short of moving Dozier our ability to acquire high upside pitching is...what exactly?  

 

So which one is a bigger need seems easy to me - one is looking for the cherry on top of the sundae, we're trying to figure out where the hell we can even find some ice cream to start ours.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think Stewart is off the table.  I think he's off the table as a second piece in this deal due to the injury histories of Kazmir, Ryu, and McCarthy.

 

No interest in Wood Twins fans?  I think he would be a nice pick up myself.

 

No thanks on Wood, I want less sinker ballers not more.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

So which one is a bigger need seems easy to me - one is looking for the cherry on top of the sundae, we're trying to figure out where the hell we can even find some ice cream to start ours.

and the bowl is cracked

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I don't think Stewart is off the table.  I think he's off the table as a second piece in this deal due to the injury histories of Kazmir, Ryu, and McCarthy.

 

No interest in Wood Twins fans?  I think he would be a nice pick up myself. 

I like Alex Wood, but pitching 4 innings since May leaves me a little concerned.

 

I'm sure you can understand that.

[Riverbrian]

 

C'mon, you know that characterization isn't fair.  They aren't choosing to "have the least talent", they're choosing to save their best chips to acquire either a better player, or acquire a need later in the year rather than unload for a guy that they have legitimate reasons to doubt.  

 

Plus, the playoffs are a crap shoot, they have every reason to believe they are a playoff team without Dozier.  (Because...they were) They can save all their best assets for July and go for it then.

 

Us?  Our pitching sucks and we know it.  And short of moving Dozier our ability to acquire high upside pitching is...what exactly?  

 

So which one is a bigger need seems easy to me - one is looking for the cherry on top of the sundae, we're trying to figure out where the hell we can even find some ice cream to start ours.

 

I disagree but you got me wanting Ice Cream now

[TheLeviathan]

 

I disagree but you got me wanting Ice Cream now

 

Start with DeLeon....we'll work on the toppings later.  (No nuts....)

[jimmer]

 

I like Alex Wood, but pitching 4 innings since May leaves me a little concerned.

 

I'm sure you can understand that.

I'd take Travis Wood though.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I'd take Travis Wood though.

Wouldn't that be a negotiating technique?

 

"Here's De Loen. Now go sign that guy Travis Wood. He's a free agent, you know".