Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TheLeviathan]

 

There's risk in holding onto Dozier, but not to the extent you're implying. That Dozier has had long stretches of poor play insulates the negative effect of a bad start in 2017.  Dozier is a known streaky hitter--a poor start would fall in line with prior seasons where's proved very productive overall, and immensely so over his hot streaks.  In any case, because of his streakiness, I imagine that Dozier is already being valued with 2016 being somewhat of an outlier.  Further, that Dozier is a veteran his value is far more stable than that of De Leon, much less a pitching prospect who has nothing left to prove at the minor league level.      

 

An injury, or poor start for De Leon is far more damaging to his value, than it is for Dozier's.  The Dodger's also take on substantial risk by not dealing De Leon and not making a place for him in the rotation.  De Leon's value as a trade-piece is at its apex without sustained major league success. 

 

If Dozier is being valued externally as his non-2016 version, than an offer with JDL is almost instantly a coup.  Dozier, even with his absurd 2016 season pushing things up, is a 16 WAR player since 2013.  Roughly the same as Ben Zobrist.  

 

Ben Zobrist, when traded to the Royals, landed a prospect in Manaea who ranged from 50-80 on Top 100 lists and Aaron Brooks who was never on a prospect list.  So if you are suggesting that Dozier is not being considered as his 2016 self, an offer of JDL far exceeds the last trade that was executed for a similar type of player.  And that doesn't include the difference in value if pieces 2 or 3 are even remotely decent prospects.  That's just further icing on the cake relative to Zobrist.  In fairness, Zobrist was a rental, but I don't think that even comes close to offsetting the difference.

 

Dozier is almost certainly at the apex of his value also.  And if he's sitting at May 31st looking like a bench player like he was in 2016, he will take a monumental drop in value.  And, even if he somehow maintains his production, he will still lose value by virtue of aging and having his team control clock tick down.  

 

With Dozier there is built in value to be lost the longer we wait once ST starts.  It's going to happen.  The only thing that would counteract it would be for him to out-perform 2016 by a healthy margin.  I don't see anyone suggesting that is going to happen. But with DeLeon the value drop has to happen with an injury or a lack of performance, but that isn't really saying anything of significance because Dozier suffers from those same two issues should they happen to him as well.  

 

Being a veteran doesn't make his value immune to dropping if he stinks or is hurt.  That's what I hear is the knock on DeLeon.  That's fine, but that works for Dozier too.  The extra risk for Dozier is in the high expectations of last year and his age and team control.  Those factors aren't changing and only one of them does he have any control over.

[beckmt]

Problem with De Leon is that if he has a 15% chance of being a #2 pitcher, he has a 25% chance of being a bust.  That is why the Twins need the extra value in this trade.  I do not know the scouting reports, but for all I know is that his swing and miss pitch almost always ends up of the the zone,  major league hitters will find this out and lay off his out pitch.  Too many variables without a second major piece.

Friedman also has a rep for fleecing other teams, so it is right to ask for extra value.

[drivlikejehu]

 

In the next 6 years, one WAR will likely average out to around 9M.  So just a weak #3-decent #4 pitcher,  averaging 1.66 WAR a season during his controllable years, will be worth about 90M.  He likely doesn't get even a total of 2M in his first three controllable seasons.  Then, if he's only producing about 1.66 WAR a season, he likely doesn't get over 20M combined over his next three years.  Maybe he does.  Let's be generous and say 25M for his arbitration years and 2M for his pre-arbitration years.  That's 27M paid out to a player over 6 years who was worth 90M in those 6 years.  63M worth of surplus, for just a #weak#3/decent #4 type pitcher. Fangraphs (which thinks less of De Leon than a guy like Sickels) sees De Leon as a solid #3/#4 type pitcher. 

 

Does your surplus figure for De Leon factor in the good chance he gets hurt and provides minimal WAR?

[TheLeviathan]

All players lose value if they are hurt or stink.  How is Dozier any more immune to that argument than DeLeon?

[jimmer]

 

Does your surplus figure for De Leon factor in the good chance he gets hurt and provides minimal WAR?

Nope, nor does it account for Dozier being injured.  

 

And it's not like I suggested he would be worth a lot of WAR in his controllable years to begin with.

[drjim]

 

All players lose value if they are hurt or stink.  How is Dozier any more immune to that argument than DeLeon?

 

Because Dozier isn't a pitcher and has averaged about 153 games played over 4 years.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Nope, nor does it account for Dozier being injured.  

 

And it's not like I suggested he would be worth a lot of WAR in his controllable years to begin with

 

Dozier has a much, much lower chance of getting hurt. You cannot meaningfully compare the two and ignore the differences in injury and performance risk. 

 

There is a roughly 50% chance that De Leon is an absolute zero in terms of future value. Basically everyone advocating for the deal is completely ignoring this or asserting that Dozier has similar risk, which is flat wrong.

[jimmer]

 

Dozier has a much, much lower chance of getting hurt. You cannot meaningfully compare the two and ignore the differences in injury and performance risk. 

 

There is a roughly 50% chance that De Leon is an absolute zero in terms of future value. Basically everyone advocating for the deal is completely ignoring this or asserting that Dozier has similar risk, which is flat wrong.

A 50% chance?  Really? Interesting.  

 

Again, a WAR of only 10 over 6 years is a low amount.  Feel free to discard all of what I wrote though on the chance De Leon gets hurt and never pitches again in the majors. Doesn't really matter.

 

All players have an injury risk, especially pitchers. I'm not much of an advocate for running a ball club and assuming the worst scenario at any and all turns.    Especially when that means we keep a guy going into his 30s for two more years and then he's gone anyway all during a time frame we aren't likely close to being contenders anyway.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Because Dozier isn't a pitcher and has averaged about 153 games played over 4 years.

 

That's arguing that he is less likely to have it happen.  Which might be true, but it's still a true statement that IF he gets hurt or stinks his value will drop.  Just as much true as it is for DeLeon.

 

Arguing that an injury is more or less likely for one or the other is another matter entirely.  I don't disagree DeLeon has a higher risk of injury.  For sure that's true.

 

What seems to be difficult for the other side of this issue is acknowleding how quickly Dozier's play could impact his value.  

[jimmer]

 

That's arguing that he is less likely to have it happen.  Which might be true, but it's still a true statement that IF he gets hurt or stinks his value will drop.  Just as much true as it is for DeLeon.

 

Arguing that an injury is more or less likely for one or the other is another matter entirely.  I don't disagree DeLeon has a higher risk of injury.  For sure that's true.

 

What seems to be difficult for the other side of this issue is acknowleding how quickly Dozier's play could impact his value.  

We could just say don't trade Dozier at all for fear any pitcher/pitchers in return could get hurt or be a bust.

 

Dozier just had his best year by a good margin and we still lost 103 (though was more of a 91 loss team by baseruns).

[TheLeviathan]

And I think drjim has easily the most reasonable position opposite mine and yours jimmer, but I think it's worth pointing out that if you inherently believe pitching is more risky (not at all an unfair thing to think) then you are going to have to pull the trigger sometimes on upside even if you feel you may lose on value in the short run.  

 

It just makes the need for good assessment and scouting important to try and mitigate that risk.  It doesn't mean you don't try to add pitching because there is inherently more risk.  You just have to make sure you go after the right ones. And for that we have to trust our FO.

[drjim]

 

We could just say don't trade Dozier at all for fear any pitcher/pitchers in return could get hurt or be a bust.

 

Dozier just had his best year by a good margin and we still lost 103 (though was more of a 91 loss team by baseruns).

 

I wouldn't say this, but would say there has to be something worthwhile more than De Leon, which I think even you agree with, to mitigate that significant risk of either injury or the fact that he just doesn't pan out.

[drivlikejehu]

 

A 50% chance?  Really? Interesting.  

 

Again, a WAR of only 10 over 6 years is a low amount.  Feel free to discard all of what I wrote though on the chance De Leon gets hurt and never pitches again in the majors. Doesn't really matter.

 

All players have an injury risk, especially pitchers. I'm not much of an advocate for running a ball club and assuming the worst scenario at any and all turns.    Especially when that means we keep a guy going into his 30s for two more years and then he's gone anyway all during a time frame we aren't likely close to being contenders anyway.

 

The history of pitching prospects is just awful, even for guys ostensibly ready for the big leagues. The failure rate is extremely high. That's why I want several in return, even if none are elite prospects.

 

Surplus value also isn't completely linear. Teams have a limited number of plate appearances and innings to give out. If De Leon is theoretically a 1 WAR talent (as one possibility among others), that's really of very limited value to the Twins because a competent organization should be able to find guys like that for less than 2 years of Dozier.

[drjim]

 

And I think drjim has easily the most reasonable position opposite mine and yours jimmer, but I think it's worth pointing out that if you inherently believe pitching is more risky (not at all an unfair thing to think) then you are going to have to pull the trigger sometimes on upside even if you feel you may lose on value in the short run.  

 

It just makes the need for good assessment and scouting important to try and mitigate that risk.  It doesn't mean you don't try to add pitching because there is inherently more risk.  You just have to make sure you go after the right ones. And for that we have to trust our FO.

 

Perhaps that good assessment and scouting has led them to a position that what is being offered in addition to De Leon is not enough. I appreciate the downside of keeping Dozier, but it also doesn't mean that the Twins should take on the extra risk.

 

If the Twins are asking for Bellinger too that is way too much, but I do find it kind of surprising that there can't be a middle ground. On the one had, as you have stated, it is a failure for the Twins if no trade is made, but on the other, what can you really do?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Perhaps that good assessment and scouting has led them to a position that what is being offered in addition to De Leon is not enough. I appreciate the downside of keeping Dozier, but it also doesn't mean that the Twins should take on the extra risk.

 

If the Twins are asking for Bellinger too that is way too much, but I do find it kind of surprising that there can't be a middle ground. On the one had, as you have stated, it is a failure for the Twins if no trade is made, but on the other, what can you really do?

 

No, I agree, that's why the 2nd and 3rd pieces should be there.  I'm just not bent out of shape if they are elite arms or anything.  I want good to solid prospects, but I need nothing close to Bellinger to make it happen.

 

Perhaps there was a feeling of insult from both sides with the offers thrown out.  At that point, I agree, perhaps both sides acted poorly at the outset and there is no saving this thing.  It's a failure, but one I hope we learned from if so.

[drjim]

My hope is breaking contact does them both good. Dodgers poke around at other options, see nothing that really works for them, they come back and hammer out a trade.

 

They are at an impasse at the moment, but doesn't seem like there's any animosity.

[AZTwin]

My hope is breaking contact does them both good. Dodgers poke around at other options, see nothing that really works for them, they come back and hammer out a trade.

 

They are at an impasse at the moment, but doesn't seem like there's any animosity.

Agreed. Let them look around. I really do believe Dozier comes back strong and don't think it hurts any if it's 1 1/2 years control vs 2 anyway. For me the prospects have more risk in this case due to either lack of experience (lower level guys) or guys on the cusp but dangerously close to losing prospect status altogether. I definitely wouldn't mind seeing another half season of what they can prove and maybe we can find a more common ground on what would constitute a fair trade

[CiabanItReal]

 

Yeah... That Use By This Date stamp on his forehead has been mentioned in this thread 1,249 times. 

 

Circumstances change.

 

Neil Walker gets hurt again... The Braves are 1st place in the East on June 1. Sam Coonrod develops a bugs bunny change and shoots up those prospect rankings.  

 

Things will look different... the landscape will move and I know this because it always does. 

 

and in the end... if Brian Dozier spoils in our arms... so be it. 

If neil walker gets hurt again do you think the twins will trade one of their 2 AAA SS prospects to the twins along with other things? Or just call up one of them to take his place?

If the braves are in first ( probably not happening) they could call up one of their SS prospects.

What if the angels are more competitive than expected or Schoop gets hurt and the orioles need a new 2nd basemen.(What kind of packages would you expect from the orioles and angels that would be competitive with what the Twins are getting offered right now).

 

Oh yeah, like one difference to the landscape, is there will likely be more sellers as teams that expected to contend fall out of contention.

 

 

Then it would be a bad deal for the Dodgers

 

and now you get to keep him so you don't have to worry about that anymore. 

But wouldn't they still be a brian dozier away from going all the way?
It's almost like making over paying for players for games they're not guaranteed 9 months from now is short sighted and a bad idea.

 

[CiabanItReal]

 

None of your options fit as well as Dozier in terms of age, performance, position, contract and cost in prospects. The Dodgers are trying to win this year and not significantly add to their $200+ million budget. Some Dodger bloggers may not want to trade prospects but I'd think Dodger fans want the best player available. I think the Twins should wait to get full value.

Well the best player available is kinsler, plus he fills the need of lead off hitter a lot better than Dozier.

[CiabanItReal]

 

That's arguing that he is less likely to have it happen.  Which might be true, but it's still a true statement that IF he gets hurt or stinks his value will drop.  Just as much true as it is for DeLeon.

 

Arguing that an injury is more or less likely for one or the other is another matter entirely.  I don't disagree DeLeon has a higher risk of injury.  For sure that's true.

 

What seems to be difficult for the other side of this issue is acknowleding how quickly Dozier's play could impact his value.  

Unless it's a catastrophic injury, DeLeon has a much greater chance of having his value bounce back since he has so many years of control, he could miss the first half of the season, come up and pitch great the second half of the season and not lose much value, like he did this year....

[dbminn]

 

Well the best player available is kinsler, plus he fills the need of lead off hitter a lot better than Dozier.

Kinsler is a great player but he has a no-trade clause and will only waive for a contract extension. He's already 34 years old. He will cost the Dodgers more money for more years at a time when they're trying to reduce their luxury tax. Any contract extension means the Tigers will get almost nothing in return.

[Riverbrian]

If neil walker gets hurt again do you think the twins will trade one of their 2 AAA SS prospects to the twins along with other things? Or just call up one of them to take his place?

If the braves are in first ( probably not happening) they could call up one of their SS prospects.

What if the angels are more competitive than expected or Schoop gets hurt and the orioles need a new 2nd basemen.(What kind of packages would you expect from the orioles and angels that would be competitive with what the Twins are getting offered right now).

 

Oh yeah, like one difference to the landscape, is there will likely be more sellers as teams that expected to contend fall out of contention.

I don't know what the Twins have been offered right now.

 

I also don't know what the Orioles or Angels can offer in the future.

 

I'm trying to say the landscape will change because it always does and you are trying to make me project the current landscape into that changed landscape.

 

Could it be worse for the Dozier market? Yes

Could it be better. Yes

 

The only thing I know is that it obviously isn't good enough right now because no deal has been made despite an obvious fit.

 

People keep posting... His value will never be higher. There is this desperation from some to trade him now to maximize his value.

 

It's like... they want to maximize his value so badly that they are willing to minimize his value to do so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well the best player available is kinsler, plus he fills the need of lead off hitter a lot better than Dozier.

Given Kinsler's age, salary, and contract demands, I'd rather have Dozier 11 times out of 10 and I suspect the Dodgers feel the same way.

[Riverbrian]

Well the best player available is kinsler, plus he fills the need of lead off hitter a lot better than Dozier.

The Tigers GM is Al Avila -- 313-471-2000

Ian Kinsler's Agent is Jay Franklin -- 877-608-4966

 

Call Them

 

Why all this Dozier talk? Go get the guy you want. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Probably worth noting, Kinsler's extension demands could change if the Tigers fall out of the race and he has a chance to go to a contender in July.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Given Kinsler's age, salary, and contract demands, I'd rather have Dozier 11 times out of 10 and I suspect the Dodgers feel the same way.

 

Yeah, and I'd bet he'd still cost De Leon... which really tells me that Friedman is lowballing us.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Probably worth noting, Kinsler's extension demands could change if the Tigers fall out of the race and he has a chance to go to a contender in July.

 

Distinctly possible, but at 34, Kinsler doesn't exactly have many years left to earn money. Yes, he's earned a lot, but the pay drops pretty significantly once he's out of baseball.  His ask for an extension is a clear business move that more than likely recognizes this.

 

The other side of it is that Kinsler is far more likely to fall off that proverbial cliff than BD is. In trading for Kinsler, LA is likely to still give up JDL and absorb much more risk/cost. That is a big deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Given the Twins apparent demands, if the Dodgers could get Kinsler for "just" De Leon in July, that could be significantly cheaper than getting Dozier. Detroit has a history of aggressive moves like that too.

 

If Kinsler is having a solid season in July, his risk of falling off a cliff suddenly isn't all that great. Primarily the Dodgers would just need him to keep playing well a few more months, and anything in 2018 would be gravy.

 

True an extension is a business decision for Kinsler, but if no one will give him the extension, he might change his tune. If the Tigers fall out of the race, would he want to play the last 1.5 years of his deal going nowhere in Detroit, or going to the playoffs in LA? The latter could be a springboard to endorsements and perhaps a better future contract. Or maybe he still wants the extension but at friendlier terms.

 

Not saying any of this is terribly likely, but they are reasonable factors that contribute to the Dodgers unwillingness to meet the Twins demands at this moment.

[Riverbrian]

 

Distinctly possible, but at 34, Kinsler doesn't exactly have many years left to earn money. Yes, he's earned a lot, but the pay drops pretty significantly once he's out of baseball.  His ask for an extension is a clear business move that more than likely recognizes this.

 

The other side of it is that Kinsler is far more likely to fall off that proverbial cliff than BD is. In trading for Kinsler, LA is likely to still give up JDL and absorb much more risk/cost. That is a big deal.

 

Given the Twins apparent demands, if the Dodgers could get Kinsler for "just" De Leon in July, that could be significantly cheaper than getting Dozier. Detroit has a history of aggressive moves like that too.

If Kinsler is having a solid season in July, his risk of falling off a cliff suddenly isn't all that great. Primarily the Dodgers would just need him to keep playing well a few more months, and anything in 2018 would be gravy.

True an extension is a business decision for Kinsler, but if no one will give him the extension, he might change his tune. If the Tigers fall out of the race, would he want to play the last 1.5 years of his deal going nowhere in Detroit, or going to the playoffs in LA? The latter could be a springboard to endorsements and perhaps a better future contract. Or maybe he still wants the extension but at friendlier terms.

Not saying any of this is terribly likely, but they are reasonable factors that contribute to the Dodgers unwillingness to meet the Twins demands at this moment.

 

 

The landscape will surely change.

[USAFChief]

The history of pitching prospects is just awful, even for guys ostensibly ready for the big leagues. The failure rate is extremely high. That's why I want several in return, even if none are elite prospects.

 

Surplus value also isn't completely linear. Teams have a limited number of plate appearances and innings to give out. If De Leon is theoretically a 1 WAR talent (as one possibility among others), that's really of very limited value to the Twins because a competent organization should be able to find guys like that for less than 2 years of Dozier.

That's why the "surplus value" argument isn't worth the paper it's written on.

 

Ignoring the problems with WAR itself, if your goal is to win baseball games:

 

10 WAR over 2 years >>>>> 10 WAR over 6 years.

 

I would hope Falvey and Levine are smart enough to find 1.5 WAR pitchers without giving up 5 WAR players.