Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[dbminn]

 

The Dodgers don't get a prize for besting the Cubs in projected Fangraphs WAR.

By B-Ref WAR, Forsythe actually has 8.4 WAR the past 2 years, at a higher per PA rate than Dozier over the same period. Tampa loves shedding payroll and might have a rotation opening with Smyly traded...

 

Agreed on both comments. They win by having a better team. The Dodgers have a big hole at 2nd base. They become a better team this year by trading prospects. I think Dozier makes the Dodgers better than they would be with Forsythe. Maybe the Dodgers agree with you. We'll see.

[drjim]

I would hope, if we deal Dozier, we are targeting pitching. And the closer to the bigs the better.

 

I really think you're looking past some pretty simple probabilities to conclude waiting is anything other than a gigantic risk.

Gigantic probably overstates it, but keeping Dozier is absolutely a risk. I would prefer a trade. But the rumored offers strike me as too light.

 

As I said earlier, keeping him for now is not a disaster, but a bad trade is the worst of all outcomes.

[jimmer]

Well, keeping him is certainly the safe move.  Risk aversion, the  real 'Twins Way'.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Gigantic probably overstates it, but keeping Dozier is absolutely a risk. I would prefer a trade. But the rumored offers strike me as too light.

As I said earlier, keeping him for now is not a disaster, but a bad trade is the worst of all outcomes.

 

The rumored offer strikes me as BS.  Whatever is true, it ain't a 1:1 swap.  We wouldn't have a month of smoke if that was all the fire that was causing it. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I keep reading that Dozier's value will never be higher. 

 

This is obviously not true if you consider that the Dodgers were seemingly the only team bidding and seemingly low balling. 

 

It absolutely can be true.  We might be, as his home fans, dramatically over-valuing him relative to the rest of the league.

 

But it seems certain there was at least a top 30ish prospect on the table for him.  We are highly unlikely to see that again, regardless of what else is included.  If for no other reason than those prospects don't move often and when they do, it's not for hitters.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

If I was a Dodger fan, I would be pretty upset if they passed on Dozier. Right now, FanGraphs projects the Dodgers to be roughly even with the Cubs. That's with an estimated 0.5 WAR from the best of their available 2B. Their budget this year is well north of $200 million. They're committed. The Dodgers have a deep farm system. They can risk two real prospects for a relatively cheap Dozier.

 

What are the Dodger options?

• Kinsler, who's 34 years old and has a no-trade clause. He has said he'll waive the clause only if he gets a contract extension.
• Forsythe, who'd cost less but would bring less performance (6.8 WAR, past two years).
• Jace Peterson of the Braves has been mentioned too. He's amassed 1.0 WAR over the past two years and 1,000 PA.

I think Friedman will call back as spring training nears.

I think most Dodgers fans would say no thanks to adding Alvarez, Buehler, or Bellinger to the deal and a lot would say no to Stewart as well.  Considering the second year of Kinsler's deal is a club option, it is very doable to get something worked out.  I think the Dodgers should talk to Texas about Profar too.  He's blocked and needs to play.  A deal including Harrison and McCutchen is a possibility.  Adding a Braun to LF would also offset the need for Dozier's bat.  They have options.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

One problem is what is being perceived as "junk".  I listened to Anthropolous talk yesterday on Sirius and said they felt they had 20 good big leaguers in their minors right now.  Jon Heyman said 30 today on MLB Now.  Just because certain guys are ranked in the top 5-6 on the Dodgers current list right now doesn't make them "junk."   Now go back a few years when Jerry Sands was the top prospect and everything past 3 was probably "junk."

[gunnarthor]

as diehard and others point out.....odds, what are the odds they are offered more than JDL going forward?

So you would be in favor of a De Leon for Dozier swap?

[nicksaviking]

Well, keeping him is certainly the safe move.  Risk aversion, the  real 'Twins Way'.

So accepting the Dodgers extreme lowball offer is the way to show everyone they aren't afraid to take risks? Seems like calling the Dodgers bluff takes more guts.

 

I am really surprised how many people think the Twins should take this offer, it's just so lopsided. What if the offer was only Stewart and throw in pieces?

[jimmer]

 

So accepting the Dodgers extreme lowball offer is the way to show everyone they aren't afraid to take risks? Seems like calling the Dodgers bluff takes more guts.

I am really surprised how many people think the Twins should take this offer, it's just so lopsided. What if the offer was only Stewart and throw in pieces?

The only people I see saying it's lowball at all (much less extreme lowball) are some Twins fans. A top 5-10 prospect for a a guy who turns 30 next year and has only two years of control left.  Some even say De Leon AND Alvarez is lowballing.

 

12 years of control of two top notch prospects for two years of Dozier.  Too little? Really?  Dozier has about 50M in surplus value. Expecting a slew of highly regarded prospects for him is unrealistic.  I said, from the very beginning, De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger for Dozier was unrealistic.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

It absolutely can be true.  We might be, as his home fans, dramatically over-valuing him relative to the rest of the league.

 

But it seems certain there was at least a top 30ish prospect on the table for him.  We are highly unlikely to see that again, regardless of what else is included.  If for no other reason than those prospects don't move often and when they do, it's not for hitters.

 

We did over value him if you consider that the Dodgers were seemingly the only team bidding and seemingly low balling.

 

 

[drjim]

The only people I see saying it's lowball at all (much less extreme lowball) are some Twins fans.

Not just Twins fans. Many national guys in chats that have been posted here disagree with you.

 

They might not say "lowball" but they say not enough.

 

EDIT: After I quoted, saw you added more. I don't agree with others who say De Leon and Alvarez is a lowball.

[nicksaviking]

One problem is what is being perceived as "junk".  I listened to Anthropolous talk yesterday on Sirius and said they felt they had 20 good big leaguers in their minors right now.  Jon Heyman said 30 today on MLB Now.  Just because certain guys are ranked in the top 5-6 on the Dodgers current list right now doesn't make them "junk."   Now go back a few years when Jerry Sands was the top prospect and everything past 3 was probably "junk."

I agree these guys aren't junk and actually calling players "junk" is against posting policy, so let's cut that out Twins fans if it's happening.

 

However after Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez, De Leon, Stewart and let's throw in Verdugo, there's not too many guys that are overly exciting from a trading team's perspective. A corner guy like Calhoun and a guy surely to be a reliever in Sheffield aren't going to get anyone too anxious.

 

Maybe these teams just don't match up, but De Leon plus organizational guys ranked 9-10 or later isn't going to get it done and I think most people detached from the situation would agree it's not enough.

[CiabanItReal]

 

If he was told that it was the Dodgers who had concerns about the small market he should feel obligated to say so instead of insinuating that it was his idea.

 

If it was his idea, it's a brand new bargaining platform that only serves to benefit the leverage of large market clubs and has no basis for concern.

 

If it wasn't his idea but the Dodgers wanted him to pretend it was, he's a shill.

 

Regardless of who actually floated the idea it was bad journalism at the very least in the way it was presented.

I don't think he insinuated it was his idea, and since when is it a reporters obligation to revel sources?

 

Why would he pass off an idea from the dodgers? What would either he or they have to gain from that? It's not as though it changed anything from a negotiating stand point.

[jimmer]

 

Not just Twins fans. Many national guys in chats that have been posted here disagree with you.

They might not say "lowball" but they say not enough.

EDIT: After I quoted, saw you added more. I don't agree with others who say De Leon and Alvarez is a lowball.

I haven't seen those, but okay.

 

And I am a Twins fan and I have said I agree De Leon BY HIMSELF is too little.  It's not an extreme lowball, but it's not enough.  Then again, I highly doubt it's been 1 for 1.  What I believe would be a huge overpay, would be De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger that some say is STILL lowballing.

[TheLeviathan]

 

We did over value him if you consider that the Dodgers were seemingly the only team bidding and seemingly low balling.

 

Right, so maybe DeLeon is, by a wide margin, the best centerpiece we'll see at any point in our efforts to deal him.

 

If true, my care for who piece two or three is dramatically drops off.

[drjim]

I haven't seen those, but okay.

 

And I am a Twins fan and I have said I agree De Leon BY HIMSELF is too little. It's not an extreme lowball, but it's not enough. Then again, I highly doubt it's been 1 for 1. What I believe would be a huge overpay, would be De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger that some say is STILL lowballing.

Absolutely agree on Bellinger. I personally think De Leon and Alvarez is about right, but would be open to some of the other options.

[nicksaviking]

The only people I see saying it's lowball at all (much less extreme lowball) are some Twins fans. A top 5-10 prospect for a a guy who turns 30 next year and has only two years of control left.  Some even say De Leon AND Alvarez is lowballing.

 

12 years of control of two top notch prospects for two years of Dozier.  Too little? Really?  Dozier has about 50M in surplus value. Expecting a slew of highly regarded prospects for him is unrealistic.  I said, from the very beginning, De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger for Dozier was unrealistic.

Alvarez isn't and has never been on the table.

 

And De Leon is not a top 5-10 prospect, not to me anyway. He's a 24-year-old with a low to mid 90's FB and not much of a breaking pitch. On the 'Exciting Twins Pitching Prospects Scale' I give him a solid Gibson. He's way ahead of Blackburn but miles behind Liriano.

 

But I will say perhaps I underestimated some of our fans' level of excitement about him. If some folks think he's in the same category as Garrit Cole, Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey I get the excitement and the desire to get him.

[gunnarthor]

 

Right, so maybe DeLeon is, by a wide margin, the best centerpiece we'll see at any point in our efforts to deal him.

 

If true, my care for who piece two or three is dramatically drops off.

My guess is a lot of how we as fell as fans is which version of De Leon we get.  Sickels sees him as an absolute stud, giving him a A ranking and feeling that he has top of the rotation stuff.  That De Leon seems pretty exciting.  And then there's the fangraphs view which has a much lower floor, touches on his shoulder soreness and lack of durability, lack of an out pitch and he's not as exciting. 

 

I tend toward the more pessimistic view of him so am not overly excited about him as a centerpiece. I'd actually like to see the Braves or St Louis get involved because I liked their prospects more.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think he insinuated it was his idea, and since when is it a reporters obligation to revel sources?

 

Why would he pass off an idea from the dodgers? What would either he or they have to gain from that? It's not as though it changed anything from a negotiating stand point.

If he didn't state in his piece that the Dodgers told him they were concerned that Dozier came from a small market then it is implied that he, Rosenthal believes it's an issue. He didn't say, "A Dodgers source says...."

 

Throwing out unsourced, unverified and undocumented nonsense like that is what convinces nutjobs to go shoot up pizza joints trying to hunt imaginary peodiphiles. If that's the kind of reporter he wants to be these days he should make clear that he's just a blogger.

[USAFChief]

Right, so maybe DeLeon is, by a wide margin, the best centerpiece we'll see at any point in our efforts to deal him.

 

If true, my care for who piece two or three is dramatically drops off.

If De Leon is the only major piece, concern over piece two and three should dramatically go UP, not down.

[TooSmartForEweNow]

I haven't seen those, but okay.

 

And I am a Twins fan and I have said I agree De Leon BY HIMSELF is too little. It's not an extreme lowball, but it's not enough. Then again, I highly doubt it's been 1 for 1. What I believe would be a huge overpay, would be De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger that some say is STILL lowballing.

Yes the general non-twins, non-dodgers fans consensus is that the dodgers aren't offering enough by just offering DeLeon.

 

You might think DeLeon + Alvarez is an overpay, but look at the recent history we are in an extreme sellers market and Dozier is very cheap for his performance. I don't think we'd get more than those two, but the twins shouldn't take anything less than those 2.

[mazeville]

 

The only people I see saying it's lowball at all (much less extreme lowball) are some Twins fans. A top 5-10 prospect for a a guy who turns 30 next year and has only two years of control left.  Some even say De Leon AND Alvarez is lowballing.

 

12 years of control of two top notch prospects for two years of Dozier.  Too little? Really?  Dozier has about 50M in surplus value. Expecting a slew of highly regarded prospects for him is unrealistic.  I said, from the very beginning, De Leon and Alvarez/Bellinger for Dozier was unrealistic.

 

No.

 

Dozier is a proven major leaguer who had one of the best seasons a second baseman has ever had.

 

Jose DeLeon is an unproven minor leaguer.

 

The reason why good, established major leaguers -- and you're really underselling Dozier here -- bring in more than one minor leaguer in a trade scenario is risk. Proven major leaguers are inherently less risky than minor leaguers with no track record at the top level.

 

Trading Dozier for Jose DeLeon straight up is most definitely too low of an offer, and no way the Twins should accept that. Only people who say that are those who are demanding a trade at all costs, or Dodgers fans. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I agree these guys aren't junk and actually calling players "junk" is against posting policy, so let's cut that out Twins fans if it's happening.

However after Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez, De Leon, Stewart and let's throw in Verdugo, there's not too many guys that are overly exciting from a trading team's perspective. A corner guy like Calhoun and a guy surely to be a reliever in Sheffield aren't going to get anyone too anxious.

Maybe these teams just don't match up, but De Leon plus organizational guys ranked 9-10 or later isn't going to get it done and I think most people detached from the situation would agree it's not enough.

I still think a package with JDL followed by guys like Calhoun, Diaz,  Rios, Sheffield, De Jong, Rios and some others to choose from is a nice deal. I'm not sure of Verdugo's status in deals.  He wouldn't be on my untouchable list because I think they have plenty of young OF options.  

 

http://www.truebluela.com/2017/1/12/14254138/edwin-rios-2017-dodgers-prospects

[jimmer]

 

Yes the general non-twins, non-dodgers fans consensus is that the dodgers aren't offering enough by just offering DeLeon.

You might think DeLeon + Alvarez is an overpay, but look at the recent history we are in an extreme sellers market and Dozier is very cheap for his performance. I don't think we'd get more than those two, but the twins shouldn't take anything less than those 2.

Again, I haven't seen them.  And I've been looking. I've read two or three people at Fangraphs say otherwise, though.

 

You call this an extreme sellers market because some big moves have been made.  One for a True Ace, the other for a guy who is vastly under-paid with 5 years of control left and 2 years younger than Dozier.

 

Also, none of them are 2Bs.  Not a lot of teams competing for Dozier, apparently.  I'm guessing because they don 't see 2016 as the Dozier they'd be getting.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

Alvarez isn't and has never been on the table.

And De Leon is not a top 5-10 prospect, not to me anyway. He's a 24-year-old with a low to mid 90's FB and not much of a breaking pitch. On the 'Exciting Twins Pitching Prospects Scale' I give him a solid Gibson. He's way ahead of Blackburn but miles behind Liriano.

But I will say perhaps I underestimated some of our fans' level of excitement about him. If some folks think he's in the same category as Garrit Cole, Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey I get the excitement and the desire to get him.

I love that Twins fans continue with the narrative that Jose De Leon is a "24 year old"(age 23 season) with a negative connotation tied to age when the player they are trying to peddle didn't do bupkis until his age 26 season.  Fact is JDL was playing against older competition in AAA and had the highest strikeout rate in 4 years of any pitcher with a minimum of 15 starts. Not every pitcher develops at 18 like Urias or King Felix. That doesn't mean they are without value.

[jimmer]

 

No.

 

Dozier is a proven major leaguer who had one of the best seasons a second baseman has ever had.

 

Jose DeLeon is an unproven minor leaguer.

 

The reason why good, established major leaguers -- and you're really underselling Dozier here -- bring in more than one minor leaguer in a trade scenario is risk. Proven major leaguers are inherently less risky than minor leaguers with no track record at the top level.

 

Trading Dozier for Jose DeLeon straight up is most definitely too low of an offer, and no way the Twins should accept that. Only people who say that are those who are demanding a trade at all costs, or Dodgers fans. 

Ok, I haven't ever said De Leon for Dozier straight up is fair.  I've said tons of times that it isn't.

 

And um, lots of highly valued minor league prospects who get traded are unproven minor leaguers. Like, all of them, really.

 

I'm not underselling Dozier.  I have a grasp at what 50M in surplus is actually worth based on precedent.

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I agree these guys aren't junk and actually calling players "junk" is against posting policy, so let's cut that out Twins fans if it's happening.

However after Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez, De Leon, Stewart and let's throw in Verdugo, there's not too many guys that are overly exciting from a trading team's perspective. A corner guy like Calhoun and a guy surely to be a reliever in Sheffield aren't going to get anyone too anxious.

Maybe these teams just don't match up, but De Leon plus organizational guys ranked 9-10 or later isn't going to get it done and I think most people detached from the situation would agree it's not enough.

I'm by now ways offended by the word "junk" either.  I'm just saying there is a lot of depth in the system compared to others.  I think JDL and Stewart isn't unreasonable nor do I think JDL + 2 or 3 quality B prospects.  

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm by now ways offended by the word "junk" either.  I'm just saying there is a lot of depth in the system compared to others.  I think JDL and Stewart isn't unreasonable nor do I think JDL + 2 or 3 quality B prospects.  

 

Stewart is a B prospect.

 

But really the focus on particular names misses the point - the difference is over value. There are all kinds of combinations that theoretically could be put together, around De Leon, around Alvarez, without either of them . . . no matter how the Twins slice up their request, the Dodgers clearly do not want to offer the Twins the ~$50 million in surplus value that is needed to make the deal fair. That's obviously the Dodger's prerogative, of course, and there's no harm in trying to get a good player on the cheap. Just didn't work in this case.

[nicksaviking]

I love that Twins fans continue with the narrative that Jose De Leon is a "24 year old"(age 23 season) with a negative connotation tied to age when the player they are trying to peddle didn't do bupkis until his age 26 season.  Fact is JDL was playing against older competition in AAA and had the highest strikeout rate in 4 years of any pitcher with a minimum of 15 starts. Not every pitcher develops at 18 like Urias or King Felix. That doesn't mean they are without value.

De Leon is no slouch and I never said he's without value, but he came out of nowhere a year ago. Also, yes it's unfair but pitchers age does matter, velocity typically starts decreasing in the mid 20's.

 

But that's not even the biggest concern, for a top prospect, I want a good breaking ball. I don't see a righty with a low 90's FB striking out too many guys with a change up as his out pitch; not at the MLB level and particularly not in the AL. Maybe if he was a lefty.