Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TooSmartForEweNow]

 

It's not about the credibility of you or him as people, it's about the credibility of the reports. I'm sorry but I just don't believe that the Twins are turning down a package including both JDL and Alvarez, and there has been no indication from any actual reporter that Alvarez has been included in any offer. 

This 100%. That proposal is hard to believe they would turn it down, and literally no one else is reporting that that has been the offer. The disbelief shouldn't be taken personally, there's just nothing public to base it on, and lots of public posts saying quite the opposite. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interesting point. I wonder if they would have only been two wins away from the WS had they signed Greinke last year.

 

With Kershaw going game 2, Greinke maybe gets game 1 and 4? Those two didn't work out so well for LA.

 

 

Well said. Taking First Place in a division is nice but ultimately irrelevant, at least here in LA. They got exposed in the playoffs for only having one top flight pitcher. That's the main reason the Cubs were in the WS instead of the Dodgers. It would have improved their chances to have Greinke.  Letting him go was a mistake. 

 

We can speculate about all kinds of hypotheticals that could have changed the outcome, but this isn't a particularly strong one.

 

The Dodgers had both Greinke and Kershaw from 2013-2015 and didn't get any further than they did in 2016.  Greinke also had a mediocre season in 2016, missed the month of July and posted a 6.02 ERA upon returning for August and September.

 

It seems rather unlikely that Greinke would have produced meaningfully different outcomes in the 2016 postseason than Maeda or Hill.  (Urias was their only use of a 4th starter, for one start.)  Not to mention that Kershaw himself was hardly infallible.  And the Dodgers won both times they used a started on 3 days rest.

 

Like a lot of teams that fall short in the postseason, they likely would have needed a combination of several changes, or a crazy Bumgarner-type run, to have made a difference.

[Aaron Cross]

Have to get this done now. His value will never be higher. Dozier's 2016 will likely be on par with Mauer's 2009. He'll never come close to it again. Dozier stunk in April, May, and without looking it up, I think September too. If he starts this season similarly, his value will plummet. Can't take that chance. Get this done. Slide Polanco over, and I'm predicting Gordon will take a massive step forward and get called up a couple months into the season. Possibly even make the team out of spring training.

[beckmt]

My guess is that the Dodgers wait.  It could be that by  trading Smily that they opened a pitching spot for a trade with the Dodgers and Freidman knows the Rays system better than the Twins.  My guess is that is the direction they go.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Have to get this done now. His value will never be higher. Dozier's 2016 will likely be on par with Mauer's 2009. He'll never come close to it again. Dozier stunk in April, May, and without looking it up, I think September too. If he starts this season similarly, his value will plummet. Can't take that chance. Get this done. Slide Polanco over, and I'm predicting Gordon will take a massive step forward and get called up a couple months into the season. Possibly even make the team out of spring training.

Dozier was quite good in Sept/Oct, posting an .884 OPS.

 

I don't expect Dozier to duplicate his 2016 season but if he goes into the break with an OPS at or just over .800, I'm not sure his value will change much (like now, it depends on who needs a second baseman and how badly they need one).

 

Dozier doesn't have to replicate 2016 to maintain high value. Right now, 2016 is an outlier season. If Brian starts the season strong, that 2016 becomes less of an outlier and more of the norm.

 

But again, I'd prefer to avoid the risk involved and trade him now for a reasonable return.

[TheLeviathan]

Even if he establishes that 2016 isn't an outlier, you're still talking about finding a partner midseason and the returns on those trades for hitters have not been nearly as good as moves during the offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why are we punting on 2017 and 2018?  How does Sano and Buxton leaving us after 2021 make us better?  Shouldn't we trade them too so we can get a group of prospects that is perfectly aligned at some random point in the future?

 

Did the trauma of last year lead you to forget what our pitching looked like?  You know, the exact same pitching staff we are currently slated to return with next year?

 

And to drjim:

 

They can also extend Dozier beyond two years.

 

 

Please god no.  Nothing good comes of even thinking about that.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Dozier was quite good in Sept/Oct, posting an .884 OPS.

 

I don't expect Dozier to duplicate his 2016 season but if he goes into the break with an OPS at or just over .800, I'm not sure his value will change much (like now, it depends on who needs a second baseman and how badly they need one).

 

Dozier doesn't have to replicate 2016 to maintain high value. Right now, 2016 is an outlier season. If Brian starts the season strong, that 2016 becomes less of an outlier and more of the norm.

 

But again, I'd prefer to avoid the risk involved and trade him now for a reasonable return.

 

But is it an outlier if it is part of a trend of continuous improvement? 

 

2017 will only be his 5th full season in the majors. His power numbers have increased each season, and last year he appeared to turn a corner in terms of using the whole field and becoming a better overall hitter. He might just be hitting his groove as an MLB hitter.

 

Kinsler, Pedroia, and Cano have all continued to be highly productive into their mid 30s: to assume Dozier will be done by 31 is also quite a presumption.

 

I'd like the Twins to trade him if they get a nice haul, but a single pitcher who has had health issues in the past is not adequate, not at all. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But is it an outlier if it is part of a trend of continuous improvement?

No, which is why Dozier starting off 2017 with an .800 or better OPS would go a long way toward establishing a new performance baseline.

 

Right now, he's a .775 OPS guy with an outlier .880 season. That *could* change if he starts 2017 somewhere between his 2016 and 2014-15 seasons.

 

I don't believe Dozier will repeat his 2016 (though it could happen) but it's possible, maybe even likely, he's a better player today than he was during his 2013-2015 seasons.

 

I'm not sure Dozier's value drops much if he goes into the break on a 4.5-5.0 WAR pace. Sure, that's off his 2016 line by quite a bit but it also means trade partners will be more confident he's a way above average bat for the position.

 

But it all depends on the market. It's unfortunate so many contenders already have solid or better second basemen. That's probably the riskiest part of this entire situation. If another team falls out of contention and offers their second baseman opposite Dozier, both players lose value on the market.

[nicksaviking]

 

We can speculate about all kinds of hypotheticals that could have changed the outcome, but this isn't a particularly strong one.

 

 

My post was in reply to a post saying the Dodgers were wise moving from Greinke because they were only two games from the WS. I was simply trying to point out that a team, particularly a big market contender, shouldn't be satisfied with only being two wins away from a chance to play for the title.

 

I'd think most teams and fans would be wondering what could have put them over the hump the previous year and what might put them over the hump next year. Assuming the status quo of getting within six wins of a trophy isn't the ultimate goal.

 

Thus far the Dodgers have only re-signed a couple of their aging players. Standing pat isn't often the strategy used by winners. Good luck to them if that's what they want to do, but I'd think they'd want to actually try to improve the team as opposed to having to rely on other teams to drop.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My post was in reply to a post saying the Dodgers were wise moving from Greinke because they were only two games from the WS. I was simply trying to point out that a team, particularly a big market contender, shouldn't be satisfied with only being two wins away from a chance to play for the title.

 

I'd think most teams and fans would be wondering what could have put them over the hump the previous year and what might put them over the hump next year. Assuming the status quo of getting within six wins of a trophy isn't the ultimate goal.

Well, the Greinke example shows that they've received this line of criticism before, and it has shown little or no correlation with actually getting over "the hump" you reference.  I don't think anyone has said they are "satisfied" with losing the NLCS, but real meaningful improvement at that margin is far more nuanced than "they should spend what it takes to get Greinke/Dozier/whomever".

[Taildragger8791]

 

Kinsler, Pedroia, and Cano have all continued to be highly productive into their mid 30s: to assume Dozier will be done by 31 is also quite a presumption.

 

I'd have more faith in his ability to produce into his mid-30's if he had a longer track record of great performance. Those players you mentioned were great all through their 20's, they didn't suddenly have a surge on the cusp of 30. If he's still hitting 30+ jacks the next to years then sure, an extension would be warranted at some later point. If he falls back to hitting 25 jacks at .240/.320/.445 then I'd be a lot less likely to bet on this age 32+ seasons.

[AZTwin]

Dodgers just need to realize how much Deleon should be discounted. Hasn't been successful long. 24th rounder and could be a flash in the pan. Pitching less regularly than college could be the reason for his success in minors. Already 24 and no major league success. Shoulder soreness. Poor pitch selection. Lots of isssues there. Need much more than him and Alvarez

[darin617]

 

My assumption was that is was some of the names you mentioned in the second paragraph and it wasn't enough for the Twins.

 

And with your other point earlier, it seems the impasse is there but the door isn't closed. But does seem it will have to be the Dodgers who call. Just takes one phone call. Maybe it's good for them to look around and explore the other options.

 

I don't understand how the talks lasted so long. Were they talking back and forth for hours each day? If that was the case you would think after 2 weeks one team would say we are not getting any where and take a step back. It may have been a smarter move for the Twins to have imposed this deadline the week before Christmas to put the pressure on LA.

 

The one part of the game of chicken now that I like is that the Twins claim they are done chasing a deal but will pick up the phone if LA wants to reopen talks. I feel they will wait until next week and try to swing a deal with a better prospect besides JDL.

 

As for the Rays making moves the other day, I really don't think just because Andrew Friedman came from Tampa makes it easier to work out a deal. If anything, the current GM or owner may have a little bad blood over him leaving and not want to do a deal that would not be in Tampa's favor.

[DodgerFan1234]

I don't understand how the talks lasted so long. Were they talking back and forth for hours each day? If that was the case you would think after 2 weeks one team would say we are not getting any where and take a step back. It may have been a smarter move for the Twins to have imposed this deadline the week before Christmas to put the pressure on LA.

 

The one part of the game of chicken now that I like is that the Twins claim they are done chasing a deal but will pick up the phone if LA wants to reopen talks. I feel they will wait until next week and try to swing a deal with a better prospect besides JDL.

 

As for the Rays making moves the other day, I really don't think just because Andrew Friedman came from Tampa makes it easier to work out a deal. If anything, the current GM or owner may have a little bad blood over him leaving and not want to do a deal that would not be in Tampa's favor.

Nothing stops the Tigers, Tampa, or some other team from picking up the same phone in the interim.

 

First rule of negotiating to me is "he who speaks first, loses". It doesn't mean a deal gets done, but if Levine is blabbing about being in a position of strength, it speaks volumes about what he internally believes his position to be.

 

As far as Friedman/Tampa, I think in part you're right. Just because somebody worked for a team means nothing to future deals. Often overplayed in the media. But as far as bad blood, the first deal Friedman did was with Tampa. Minor deal for relievers, but still.

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't understand how the talks lasted so long. Were they talking back and forth for hours each day? If that was the case you would think after 2 weeks one team would say we are not getting any where and take a step back. It may have been a smarter move for the Twins to have imposed this deadline the week before Christmas to put the pressure on LA.

 

 

My guess is that after both sides agreed on De Leon, both sides exchanged names.  Officials would then probably want to talk to area scouts about those names - esp if the names weren't even close to be agreed upon. Maybe the Twins saw a name on the Dodgers list and thought "he could be a viable third piece" but still wanted a strong second piece.  And the FO types would still talk about what the other side was demanding.  And they probably all took off the holidays.

 

I would guess that both sides really started boiling it down after the holidays, hoping the other side would blink.

[Rhino and Compass]

 

My guess is that after both sides agreed on De Leon, both sides exchanged names.  Officials would then probably want to talk to area scouts about those names - esp if the names weren't even close to be agreed upon. Maybe the Twins saw a name on the Dodgers list and thought "he could be a viable third piece" but still wanted a strong second piece.  And the FO types would still talk about what the other side was demanding.  And they probably all took off the holidays.

 

I would guess that both sides really started boiling it down after the holidays, hoping the other side would blink.

This is a really good point. The Twins new FO was in the process of getting to know their own team just as much as they were scouting the Dodgers. Those scouts going out to look at Dodgers prospects, well, there is a good chance that this was the first or second conversation they had with Falvey/Levine. And then, their first week or two was spent trying to lure Castro here.

Yeah, that totally makes sense. It's taken a while, but I'm sure the two teams have actually discussed the trade way less than we have

[Doomtints]

 

No, which is why Dozier starting off 2017 with an .800 or better OPS would go a long way toward establishing a new performance baseline.

 

Right now, he's a .775 OPS guy with an outlier .880 season. That *could* change if he starts 2017 somewhere between his 2016 and 2014-15 seasons.

 

I don't believe Dozier will repeat his 2016 (though it could happen) but it's possible, maybe even likely, he's a better player today than he was during his 2013-2015 seasons.

 

I'm not sure Dozier's value drops much if he goes into the break on a 4.5-5.0 WAR pace. Sure, that's off his 2016 line by quite a bit but it also means trade partners will be more confident he's a way above average bat for the position.

 

But it all depends on the market. It's unfortunate so many contenders already have solid or better second basemen. That's probably the riskiest part of this entire situation. If another team falls out of contention and offers their second baseman opposite Dozier, both players lose value on the market.

 

Dozier's 2016 SLG is a full 100 points above his previous career high -- not his average, his career high.  I don't think there is any way he repeats 2016.

 

You say he's a .770 OPS guy but he's not even that even if you include last year.  Before last year he was just under a .750 OPS guy. Assuming he has a couple of good, peak years ahead of him, I can see him doing .790 OPS over the next few years, on average.  

 

For what it's worth, Torii Hunter hit with more power than Dozier has consistently shown and I don't know how many of us think of Hunter as a key power bat.  

[nicksaviking]

 

First rule of negotiating to me is "he who speaks first, loses". It doesn't mean a deal gets done, but if Levine is blabbing about being in a position of strength, it speaks volumes about what he internally believes his position to be.

 

 

I agree that this has merit, but we as Twins fans just had a GM who subscribed to this philosophy rigorously and stated so publicly.  

 

We didn't get a lot of deals done this way and the ones that did get done in the last decade or so almost all occurred when the Twins player was at or near his nadir.

[nicksaviking]

 

Dozier's 2016 SLG is a full 100 points above his previous career high -- not his average, his career high.  I don't think there is any way he repeats 2016.

 

You say he's a .770 OPS guy but he's not even that even if you include last year.  Before last year he was just under a .750 OPS guy. Assuming he has a couple of good, peak years ahead of him, I can see him doing .790 OPS over the next few years, on average.  

 

For what it's worth, Torii Hunter hit with more power than Dozier has consistently shown and I don't know how many of us think of Hunter as a key power bat.  

 

The market has already made it clear that Dozier's value is derived much, much more from demand than his stats. There's no reason to think that it also may not be true come this summer.

 

Anyway, since the offers now are way below his worth, there's little reason not to find out.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Sure, but it would be nice to know. For example, De Leon plus Calhoun and Sheffield is a lot different than De Leon plus two C prospects.

Just from my understanding of the Dodgers system, I'm guessing guys like Calhoun, Diaz, Sheffield, De Jong were offered as second pieces or 3rd pieces.  The Dodgers also have two good young catchers.  Smith and Ruiz so I could see Farmer offered as a 3rd or 4th piece.

 

On the surface JDL and Stewart make sense, but I can understand why they feel they need to keep at least one due to the injury histories of Kazmir, McCarthy, and Ryu.  I am a little surprised that Alex Wood's name hasn't come up more.  He was really throwing well when he had the elbow cleanup.  He looked good when he came back at the end of the year.  He just didn't have a chance to be stretched out.  He make hitter look silly at times.  He and Honeycutt had fixed something in his mechanics and it was really paying off.  

 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

For what it's worth, Torii Hunter hit with more power than Dozier has consistently shown and I don't know how many of us think of Hunter as a key power bat.  

That seems out of the blue.  Everyone thought Hunter was a key power bat.  He finished with 350+ HR and topped 20/season 11x.  About 60% of his starts had him hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th.  

[Doomtints]

 

That seems out of the blue.  Everyone thought Hunter was a key power bat.  He finished with 350+ HR and topped 20/season 11x.  About 60% of his starts had him hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th.  

 

I never thought of him as a power bat. I considered him a complete package, very good at many things but not excellent at any. I wrote that mostly for me, since I'm surprised to figure that out I bet others are too.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Greinke did not have the best year last year. The Dodgers not getting to the WS had more to do with MLB fixing game 4 in Cubs favor than Greinke. Calling AGon (clearly safe) out with the Dodgers having both the lead in the game and series was the largest single momentum shift in the playoffs.

Hill was a fine and capable replacement for Greinke in the playoffs. The thing that honestly puts the Dodgers over the hump next year more than Dozier is health. The great thing about health, is that it's free if it happens. The combo of Kershaw, Hill and Urias need to make more than 42 combined starts (as they did in 2016). The Dodgers need to throw less than 15 pitchers in a season, leaning heavily on the likes of Bud Norris and scrubs like Tepesch . Their righty batters that crush lefties (Scott Van Slyke and Trayce Thompson) will also hopefully be healthy. So health...health is greater to the Dodgers than any name in this thread.

Yes, that was a momentum changer and the team that scored 1st won every game, but the game wound something like 10-4.  As much as the announcing and umpiring at times was an annoying love fest, we can't blame the loss on the horrible call at the plate.  As much as I love Roberts, I thought he blew an excellent opportunity to use Alex Wood that game instead of overusing Joey Pancakes.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

My post was in reply to a post saying the Dodgers were wise moving from Greinke because they were only two games from the WS. I was simply trying to point out that a team, particularly a big market contender, shouldn't be satisfied with only being two wins away from a chance to play for the title.

 

I'd think most teams and fans would be wondering what could have put them over the hump the previous year and what might put them over the hump next year. Assuming the status quo of getting within six wins of a trophy isn't the ultimate goal.

 

Thus far the Dodgers have only re-signed a couple of their aging players. Standing pat isn't often the strategy used by winners. Good luck to them if that's what they want to do, but I'd think they'd want to actually try to improve the team as opposed to having to rely on other teams to drop.

One team wins every year.  ONE.  it's tough to win it all.  I'm not content, but I'm also not one to complain about being in the tournament every year.   The Dodgers didn't win too many playoff games between 1988 and 2008 then McCourt bankrupted the team, left them with near nothing in the minors, and their international scouting cut from the budget so to me it's not the end of the world to lose in the playoffs.

 

You might say the Dodgers only re-signed their aging players, but you also have to remember that young players like Seager, Urias, Dayton, Pederson, Toles, Puig?, Grandal, Stewart and JDL should all be better.  Last season they didn't get many starts from Kershaw, Urias, and Hill.  That number will go up substantially.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I don't understand how the talks lasted so long. Were they talking back and forth for hours each day? If that was the case you would think after 2 weeks one team would say we are not getting any where and take a step back. It may have been a smarter move for the Twins to have imposed this deadline the week before Christmas to put the pressure on LA.

 

The one part of the game of chicken now that I like is that the Twins claim they are done chasing a deal but will pick up the phone if LA wants to reopen talks. I feel they will wait until next week and try to swing a deal with a better prospect besides JDL.

 

As for the Rays making moves the other day, I really don't think just because Andrew Friedman came from Tampa makes it easier to work out a deal. If anything, the current GM or owner may have a little bad blood over him leaving and not want to do a deal that would not be in Tampa's favor.

Friedman left on very good terms.  Madden not so much.  I listened to an interview with their owner about this very subject.  He was pissed at Joe.  The Rays and Dodgers have already made deals since Andrew left Tampa.  Liberatore and Peralta came from Tampa.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

http://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-rumors-la-refused-include-brock-stewart-potential-brian-dozier-twins-trade/2017/01/12/ 

 

At Dodger Blue, they ware saying that Stewart was not offered. I get the feeling that the Dodgers think much more highly of De Leon than the Twins do. That means they would be probably be willing to give better prospects in a trade involving Stewart as opposed to De Leon. IMO, I am almost as high on Stewart as DeLeon. At this point, the Twins and Dodgers maybe could switch gears, start over with Stewart as the center piece of a potential trade.

That's possible.  They may also think that Stewart plays better out of the pen than JDL.  I read the Molly Knight book this week.  The Dodgers and Phillies almost had a deal in place that was JDL and SVS for Cole Hamels when Texas swooped in a got Hamels.  

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Dozier was quite good in Sept/Oct, posting an .884 OPS.

 

I don't expect Dozier to duplicate his 2016 season but if he goes into the break with an OPS at or just over .800, I'm not sure his value will change much (like now, it depends on who needs a second baseman and how badly they need one).

 

Dozier doesn't have to replicate 2016 to maintain high value. Right now, 2016 is an outlier season. If Brian starts the season strong, that 2016 becomes less of an outlier and more of the norm.

 

But again, I'd prefer to avoid the risk involved and trade him now for a reasonable return.

Aaron and Brock:

 

What's a reasonable return? I think Falvey and Co. are looking for two near-MLB-ready starting pitchers plus one or two prospects, and rightfully so. That, in my mind is what Dozier is worth. 

 

De Leon is one. Stewart would be another. Alvarez is a nice prospect, but too far from the majors. 

 

I think Falvey and Co. have stuck to their guns. If they don't get a package with two near-ready MLB starters, they'll walk away. And they should. 

 

Getting just De Leon and a couple of C-prospects doesn't do it for me. Dozier is worth more than that. You would be trading a very good commodity for – in my mind – a minimal return. If that's the case, the Twins would be much better off keeping Dozier until they get a better offer.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you use bWAR instead of fWAR, that just lowers the baseline. Last year the Twins only had 2 bWAR, so they need to improve by 14 WAR to get to league average and ~18 WAR to be above-average. And Santana's contribution is larger as well (4 bWAR). So using those numbers, they need to find 17-21 WAR worth of improvement. The underlying percentages don't end up changing very much - an solid return for Dozier will only fix ~33% of the problem.

 

Are you arguing "you can't fix it all, so fix nothing", or am I reading this wrong? If trading Dozier can fix 1/3 of the problem, wow!, that's a lot of the problem. 

 

If you aren't arguing that, what, exactly, is your argument that you are making in these posts?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Aaron and Brock:

 

What's a reasonable return? I think Falvey and Co. are looking for two near-MLB-ready starting pitchers plus one or two prospects, and rightfully so. That, in my mind is what Dozier is worth. 

 

De Leon is one. Stewart would be another. Alvarez is a nice prospect, but too far from the majors. 

 

I think Falvey and Co. have stuck to their guns. If they don't get a package with two near-ready MLB starters, they'll walk away. And they should. 

 

Getting just De Leon and a couple of C-prospects doesn't do it for me. Dozier is worth more than that. You would be trading a very good commodity for – in my mind – a minimal return. If that's the case, the Twins would be much better off keeping Dozier until they get a better offer.

 

Who is going to make a better offer than De Leon + whatever?