Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Doomtints]

There was a multi-team trade about ten years ago where the Twins got NOTHING in the trade. They got themselves involved in this multi-team deal but could never decide on who they wanted. The deadline was coming up and rather than spoil the party for the other teams involved, the Twins traded a player away for nothing in return.

 

The Twins are officially Bad At This.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There was a multi-team trade about ten years ago where the Twins got NOTHING in the trade.  They got themselves involved in this multi-trade deal but could never decide on who they wanted.  The deadline was coming up and rather than spoil the party for the other teams involved, the Twins traded a player away for nothing in return.

 

The Twins are officially Bad At This.

 

really? who was that?

[PseudoSABR]

Although Dozier's trade value is unlikely to ever be higher, it's also hard to imagine that demand for his services will ever be lower.   If the Twins walk away, it's probably less of a 'failure' and more a result of muted and limited market. 

[laloesch]

 

There was a multi-team trade about ten years ago where the Twins got NOTHING in the trade. They got themselves involved in this multi-team deal but could never decide on who they wanted. The deadline was coming up and rather than spoil the party for the other teams involved, the Twins traded a player away for nothing in return.

 

The Twins are officially Bad At This.

 

LOL.  Quite correct.  Once of the best starting pitchers of the early 2000's and they got NOTHING decent in return with the exception of one raw outfielder whose had a history of issues since getting called up.  Probably one of the worst trades the franchise ever made with the exception of the Erickson trade.  Can't scout, can't negotiate, can't trade, can't develop raw recruits down on the farm, total dysfunction and the rest of the league knows it.  suckers!

[PseudoSABR]

 

The Twins are officially Bad At This.

It's too bad that this curse pervades even through regime change.  I guess the Twins should self-contract to save us fans more misery? 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Although Dozier's trade value is unlikely to ever be higher, it's also hard to imagine that demand for his services will ever be lower.   If the Twins walk away, it's probably less of a 'failure' and more a result of muted and limited market. 

 

Demand could certainly be lower if he has another 2 month slump and invalidates the opinion that he's "figured it out and hit his prime".

[Doomtints]

 

It's too bad that this curse pervades even through regime change.  I guess the Twins should self-contract to save us fans more misery? 

 

They already played the self-contract card. I think that ship has sailed.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Demand could certainly be lower if he has another 2 month slump and invalidates the opinion that he's "figured it out and hit his prime".

Indeed.  There's a lot of risk in not dealing him now, as I suggested, it's unlikely his value will be higher. However, if Dozier is the team's chief asset to use towards their rebuild, dealing him in as poor a market as imaginable is also fraught with risk, no?

 

Given the risk on both sides, there's hardly an 'easy' or 'obvious' choice for the Twins to make. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

They already played the self-contract card. I think that ship has sailed.

So you really believe there's a connection between why the Johan Santana trade failed to bear fruit and the current front office's unwillingness to trade Dozier for what the Dodgers are offering? 

[HitInAPinch]

 

If the Twins decide to keep dozier bc they think they contend, they are delusional IMO.

This pitching is terrible, it can't hold up to win 88+ games

I don't believe that either Falvey or Levine would think such a thing. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Yep.  I remain convinced that the new FO believes the rotation will see dramatic rebounds this season from Hughes, Gibson and Duffey.  If Santana pitches like last season and they get some production from either Berrios or May with Meija as insurance, team should be able to win 95 to 100 games right? last to first all over again and then world series. Who needs JDL or Alvarez? 

 

 

LOL.  Quite correct.  Once of the best starting pitchers of the early 2000's and they got NOTHING decent in return with the exception of one raw outfielder whose had a history of issues since getting called up.  Probably one of the worst trades the franchise ever made with the exception of the Erickson trade.  Can't scout, can't negotiate, can't trade, can't develop raw recruits down on the farm, total dysfunction and the rest of the league knows it.  suckers!

 

So are we blaming the old front office or the new front office then?

 

I'm more inclined to blame Altuve, Cano, Kinsler, Kipnis, Pedroia, Murphy, Odor, Schoop and Zobrist for playing so well that nearly every single contending team has no need for a 2B

 

That is if I were inclined to blame anyone, but I don't because blame is ridiculous in a situation like this.

[Taildragger8791]

 

So you really believe there's a connection between why the Johan Santana trade failed to bear fruit and the current front office's unwillingness to trade Dozier for what the Dodgers are offering? 

 

The only connection I'd draw, and I'd agree it's tenuous, is:

 

1) Front office - The front office and scouting system haven't yet been overhauled, it's only been ~3 months since Falvey/Levine took over. So we're still operating largely on the same infrastructure and scouting information from the Terry Ryan era. It'll take time to reorganize this. Falvey/Levine also may be hesitant to immediately stick their necks out on a deal that has a non-guaranteed return.

 

2) Ownership - Dozier is the face of the team right now and the only marketing darling we have. Amid dwindling fan interest the ownership may not be willing to accept a dip in on-field performance and ticket sales without a failure-proof return.

 

It's admittedly a stretch, but that's the only connection I see.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

Is anybody curious as to wear Dozier and the Twins would be if we had hired Jason McLeod? If we'd be doing the total Cubs tear down right now and would have already gotten rid of Dozier and Santana?

[Steve Lein]

 

Make no mistake about it, it will only be the Twins who will lose. The Dodgers will be a favorite for the NL pennant with or without Dozier, and the Twins will remain a team with 100 loss potential unless they make a change.

 

If the Dodgers are gonna low-ball the crap out of the Twins, I don't care. That is not a reason to give in. The Twins are still a 100 loss potential without Dozier, and De Leon added in going into 2017. Nothing changes on either side.

 

Pay to play, or move on.

 

If they pay, Twins have some more prospects to help their rebuild for the future, and the Dodgers have an added weapon everybody says they are missing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There was a multi-team trade about ten years ago where the Twins got NOTHING in the trade. They got themselves involved in this multi-team deal but could never decide on who they wanted. The deadline was coming up and rather than spoil the party for the other teams involved, the Twins traded a player away for nothing in return.

 

The Twins are officially Bad At This.

 

You're going to have to elaborate on this one.  Last multi-team trade I remember was sending Dougie Alphabet off for Justin Jones.  According to reports at the time, they were supposed to get a second prospect, but no grievance was ever filed.

[gunnarthor]

 

Then you keep Dozier. But the Dodgers still walk away in great shape as an organization and the Twins walk away with a stagnant, unbalanced, log-jammed roster with league-worst pitching and little help on the horizon.

I'm not sure "little help" is true.  You want them to add top 100 pitching prospects to the rotation next year?  They already have two, one of which is more highly regarded than De Leon. Behind them, they have two more top 100 pitching prospects in AA (both left handed, for added fun).  Help is on the way (plus likely a top pitching prospect at #1 in the draft). 

 

It doesn't make sense to move Dozier for De Leon and Lavine certainly shouldn't be faulted for not accepting a bad trade.

[Kwak]

 

Make no mistake about it, it will only be the Twins who will lose. The Dodgers will be a favorite for the NL pennant with or without Dozier, and the Twins will remain a team with 100 loss potential unless they make a change.

LA isn't the only option. If MN changes from demanding "major-league-ready" pitching to more available personnel, I am convinced things will move.

[gunnarthor]

If De Leon really was the only option, the Twins could move on by signing someone like Hammel.  Absolutely no reason to give up a guy like Dozier for that.

[laloesch]

 

So are we blaming the old front office or the new front office then?

 

I'm more inclined to blame Altuve, Cano, Kinsler, Kipnis, Pedroia, Murphy, Odor, Schoop and Zobrist for playing so well that nearly every single contending team has no need for a 2B

 

That is if I were inclined to blame anyone, but I don't because blame is ridiculous in a situation like this.

 

I would call it a healthy dose of sarcasm and a wake up and smell the coffee evaluation of the Twins as an organizational whole.  I'm not blaming Derek Falvey or Thad Levine for what has transpired, because they are just getting their feet wet within this organization.  It just appears from an outsiders perspective like more of the same that's all.    

[laloesch]

So..... the 1 for 1 swap rumors appear again.  If that's truly the case then it should'n't surprise anyone and seems to fly in the face of the rumors we were hearing early on.  I'm just disappointed that the Twins couldn't negotiate a better deal for themselves.  That said, I don't blame them for walking away.  JDL + junk for Dozier straight up is insanely lopsided.  The Dodgers must feel they are completely in the driver's seat.  All i can say is "see ya, if you want to make a serious next season we'll listen."    

[Doomtints]

 

You're going to have to elaborate on this one.  Last multi-team trade I remember was sending Dougie Alphabet off for Justin Jones.  According to reports at the time, they were supposed to get a second prospect, but no grievance was ever filed.

 

That's the trade. When the trade was first announced, the Twins were slated to get nothing which left all of us scratching our heads and scrambling to find more information. When asked for an explanation, Ryan said that time ran out and they let the trade go through rather than scrap it for everyone.

 

Within a couple of days, Justin Jones was announced as coming to the Twins in the trade. The assumption was that the league let this part get added after the paperwork was filed. How the Cubs figured out Jones was a bust by age 19 is another part of the mystery, but the Twins did not give Jones their usual patience either and released him when he was 21.

[Vanimal46]

Sounds like a lot want to pack up and forget about this possibility. 

Nothing's over until we decide it is! 

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! 

And it ain't over now.... 

Cause when the goin gets tough...... 

 

The tough gets goin! 

Now who's with me?! 

[Doomtints]

 

LA isn't the only option. If MN changes from demanding "major-league-ready" pitching to more available personnel, I am convinced things will move.

 

I think he will be traded too.

[ppearson50]

I'm sure the offer was at least Deleon and Micah Johnson, who was just designated to make room for Jansen by the Dodgers. Maybe if he makes it past the Padres, the Twins could claim Johnson who is fast and can play the outfield and second base. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's the trade. When the trade was first announced, the Twins were slated to get nothing which left all of us scratching our heads and scrambling to find more information. When asked for an explanation, Ryan said that time ran out and they let the trade go through rather than scrap it for everyone.

 

Within a couple of days, Justin Jones was announced as coming to the Twins in the trade. The assumption was that the league let this part get added after the paperwork was filed. How the Cubs figured out Jones was a bust by age 19 is another part of the mystery, but the Twins did not give Jones their usual patience either and released him when he was 21.

They were never slated to get nothing. That's not how trades work.  Jones was included right away... the big reports that came out the next day was that we were supposed to get a second piece.

[doscinco]

Looks like this trade dead. Thank you for a hospitality, Twins fans. Looking forward to following Hunter Greene's progress if you guys take him. About 10 years apart, but I went to Notre Dame HS, as well.

[Doomtints]

 

They were never slated to get nothing. That's not how trades work.  Jones was included right away... the big reports that came out the next day was that we were supposed to get a second piece.

 

Untrue. The initial reports had a giant blank going back to the Twins. After a few days that blank was filled in. For the most part, journalists updated their reports and moved on. However, Ryan was asked about it in the interim and, yes, as the trade was originally submitted the Twins were getting nothing out of it other than the cash dump associated with getting rid of a veteran player that they no longer wanted.

[gunnarthor]

According to Rosenthal, Dodgers discounted Dozier compared to Twins a bit b/c last season was an outlier, he strikes out too much and hasn't had exposure to a large market.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/dodgers-brian-dozier-second-baseman-trade-twins-011017

[Doomtints]

 

According to Rosenthal, Dodgers discounted Dozier compared to Twins a bit b/c last season was an outlier, he strikes out too much and hasn't had exposure to a large market.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/dodgers-brian-dozier-second-baseman-trade-twins-011017

 

Well, he already has SoCal hair. Beyond that, I'm sure he can start throwing "Duuuude" into conversations and fit right into the LA market. Would the Dodgers feel more comfortable if the Twins threw in a surfboard for him to use?

 

Anyway, it's true that he strikes out a lot. He strikes out more than Eddie Rosario, and we all read constantly about Rosario's terrible patience. At the same time, I really doubt the Dodgers truly care about Dozier's K rate (though I have no doubt that the Dodgers pretended that this was a concern.)

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

To any Dodger fans in attendance: what is your club's plan at 2B, sans Dozier?  I suppose you would call up Chase Utley, but I was wondering if Austin Barnes has a real shot there.  Could be an interesting way to leverage your backup catcher too, and potentially free up a roster spot for a specialist (i.e. a pinch hitter).  I have no idea how he handles the position, of course, just noticed that he keeps getting a few reps there.

That's a good question.  They may bring back Chase.  He was beloved in the clubhouse and a super mentor for Seager.  He played way more than they intended him to last season. They could go in-house and platoon at 2nd base while choosing to improve from the right side in the outfield rather than 2B.  Braun and McCutchen are still options.  The Brewers and Dodgers had reportedly agreed on Braun for Puig, McCarthy, and 2 prospects last August, but ran out of time trying to agree on the two prospects.  Braun stayed at the ballpark until midnight waiting to see if the deal got done.  The Brewers had agreed to eat all of the deferred money in his deal too.  The Braun rumors have been popping up again.

 

I don't doubt that they circle back and check in on Kinsler, Forsythe, Solarte, Harrison, and maybe even Profar.  Kinsler makes the most sense if they can figure it out.  

 

No one credible is stating that the deal was just Deleon for Dozier.  Even Rosenthal today said that the Dodgers were offering more on top of Deleon.  Some of us Dodgers fans had a hard time believing Alvarez was in the deal, but if Dave was correct and they turned down JDL and Alvarez haggling over a 3rd piece that seems like a big mistake.  Most Dodgers fans would be quite upset with the inclusion of Alvarez. I certainly get the whole sunk cost argument, but really the only reason Moancada isn't a Dodger is that they wanted Alvarez.  They asked Moancada to wait until after July 1st to sign and they would pay him more than Boston.  

 

The whole piece of mind thing for Dozier doesn't make any sense either when you know they will be shopping him at the trading deadline. From what I've read from Dave and Chris, it seems like the Dodgers have had enough and have walked away from what they think is a fair offer.  Considering how much they gave up for Hill and that turd Reddick, I just don't see the Dodgers low-balling the Twins.  It's not really Freidman's style.