Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[nicksaviking]

 

 The Dodgers are not all in at the expense of the future.

 

As a fan of a team that was continually contending for a decade and still followed that philosophy religiously, I'll just say I hope it works out better for you than it did for us.

[DJSim22]

 

These threads have been super fun and interesting to follow, at least the first 2000 or so comments were, give or take 500.  I just skipped ten pages of unread comments and don't really feel like I've missed much.

 

My mean-spirited, uncharitable, January-gloom tinted takes:

 

1.  I hope the trade falls through, ALL the prospects involved flop, Dozier rakes and is traded to the Giants at the deadline.  Giants surge into playoffs, beating Dodgers on a Dozier home off of Kershaw in a key game where MadBum no hits the Dodgers.  Actually, he doesn't just no hit them, he somehow NEGATIVE hits them.  I think a negative-hitter is when the Dodger's second baseman, whomever it is at that point, doesn't even bother to go to the plate and just concedes the out.

 

2.  Barring that, the Dodgers trade JDL to the White Sox for Frazier, who they plug in at 2B.  Frazier flops, and JDL joins Giolito as future trivia category answers.  "We would have also accepted Zach Wheeler, Rubby De la Rosa, or Andrew Cashner."  The question was "Name some former top pitching prospects who were made available to headline major trades and didn't end up being worth a hill of beans." [author dons pitchfork/stat-proof body armor]

 

3.  The trade is consumated (sic).  JDL flops as a starter, but becomes a lights out closer.  Brock Stewart has a Boof Bonser-like career.  The third piece, the one that Doogie, in a Pullitzer Prize winning article on the Ringer identifies as the big hold-up, goes on to have a Hall of Fame career.  This third piece's name has not been mentioned in any of the 3000+ comments by anybody.

 

4.  Yadier Alvarez is eventually traded for Scott Diamond.  Not his corpse, the ACTUAL Scott Diamond, who is still pitching for someone, somewhere.

 

Brilliant.

[beckmt]

 

You think GMs, in 2017, care what coast writers or BA or MLB.com or FG says about prospects? Not sure I understand.

Don't think they care, but Dodgers have roster management issues.  Do not know how many options De Leon has left, but my guess is 1.  Dodgers have many other pitching prospects that will require roster spots probably some of them at the end of the year(though if Ryu does not recover, he could be injury waived if needed(again not sure how this works)).  Dodgers will probably have to create 40 man or 25 man roster space at the end of spring training.  That could be painful.  Do not know how waivers work(if by league or record at the point), but Dodgers may have to make one of those multiple player deals for something or just lose some decent players at the end of spring training.  Twins should be posed to take advantage of helping them out.  Maybe it will be better to wait.

[DJSim22]

 

The Phillips trade was nixed in November but finally reported now because it hadn't gotten out. From the Braves beat reporters, there was never any actual trade. The Braves asked the Reds to see if Phillips would be amenable to a deal before they even started talking names, and Phillips said no. That was at the GM meetings.

 

The Braves have since signed Sean Rodriguez to do a lot of what they had hoped Phillips would provide. They've been in on Dozier, but like with Sale, Quintana, and Archer, they're only in if the price is right. Albies was only on the table in those three for Sale, not the other two, just FYI.

 

I realize the Braves signed Rodriguez, I should have been more clear.  I was looking for any interesting back story involving talks.  It sounds like you believe there isn't much to discuss.  Thanks,

[DJSim22]

 

There's probably enough of a difference between offering "nothing else" and offering "players of low significance" to keep talks alive.

 

I don't know what they offered, but I've suggested in my impatience to walk out and not look back.  It is also possible by keeping talks going it could influence another team to jump into this who though they had no chance.  Maybe it's not likely, but it might be a good idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Don't think they care, but Dodgers have roster management issues.  Do not know how many options De Leon has left, but my guess is 1.

Actually, De Leon has all 3 options left.  He was first added to the 40-man for his September 2016 call-up, so he hasn't been optioned yet in his career.  He was drafted out of college the same year as Mitch Garver, who just got added to the Twins 40-man this winter.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Don't think they care, but Dodgers have roster management issues.  Do not know how many options De Leon has left, but my guess is 1.  Dodgers have many other pitching prospects that will require roster spots probably some of them at the end of the year(though if Ryu does not recover, he could be injury waived if needed(again not sure how this works)).  Dodgers will probably have to create 40 man or 25 man roster space at the end of spring training.  That could be painful.  Do not know how waivers work(if by league or record at the point), but Dodgers may have to make one of those multiple player deals for something or just lose some decent players at the end of spring training.  Twins should be posed to take advantage of helping them out.  Maybe it will be better to wait.

At the end of last season, it was Deleon's first call up to the 40-man roster and big league roster.  Also, part of the reason that he wasn't activated to the 25-man roster sooner last year.  He wasn't even on the 40-man.  It took releasing players or moving guys to the 60-day DL to put him on the 40-man.

[Doomtints]

 

Actually, De Leon has all 3 options left.  He was first added to the 40-man for his September 2016 call-up, so he hasn't been optioned yet in his career.  He was drafted out of college the same year as Mitch Garver, who just got added to the Twins 40-man this winter.

 

Yep.  He was added on 9/11.

[DaveW]

 

Yep.  He was added on 9/11.

I will never forget that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I will never forget that.

He approves.

 

http://images.complex.com/complex/image/upload/c_limit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_680/577291908_psrfyq.jpg

[doscinco]

Dodgers/Lakers insider guy (he broke the Justin Turner/Kenley signings)
 

Chris Camello
‏@Chris_Camello
Sources: There has been some movement between #Dodgers and #Twins in regards to Dozier. Not sure what that means but next 24-48 hrs are big

 

Chris Camello
‏@Chris_Camello
I'm not saying that a trade is automatically going to happen the next 2 days but #Dodgers appear to be making some progress

[DaveW]

Carmello in line with what my source has been saying (and I tweeted hours ago) basically it's **** or get off the pot time.

[ppearson50]

At this point I think I'd be pretty happy with Deleon and Calhoun or Deleon and Sheffield. Seems like a good middle ground to get two top ten prospects. I would be ecstatic with Deleon and Stewart. That would add two guys to our starting rotation battle for spring training. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Carmello in line with what my source has been saying (and I tweeted hours ago) basically it's **** or get off the pot time.

 

Dodgers/Lakers insider guy (he broke the Justin Turner/Kenley signings)
 

Chris Camello
‏@Chris_Camello
Sources: There has been some movement between #Dodgers and #Twins in regards to Dozier. Not sure what that means but next 24-48 hrs are big

 

Chris Camello
‏@Chris_Camello
I'm not saying that a trade is automatically going to happen the next 2 days but #Dodgers appear to be making some progress

 

Dave, any more details you can give? Have they found some names for third piece that Twins seems more interested in?

[ppearson50]

Of course Deleon and Alverez would be amazing.

 

[CiabanItReal]

 

I think the Twins are content with what they have right now which is a mistake in my opinion.  Sure they would like to upgrade the rotation but it appears to be that they clearly think / have high hopes that Hughes, Gibson and Duffey all rebound dramatically this season and Santana picks up right where he left off despite being 34.  Then you have the wild cards in May, Berrios & Meija.  They have to do better this season, right?

 

Trading Dozier to the Dodgers would have happened if they were willing to give up more than just JDL and junk.  The Dodgers know they were the only suitor for Brian and have consistently low balled I think.  I don't blame the FO for not going through with it.  That said, if the offer EVER included Alvarez and JDL in the same package (which i doubt), I would consider it a failure on the Twins part to not accept such a deal even if the third piece was AAAA filler or a low level wild card.

 

This is from ken rosenthal.

"De Leon, though, is precisely the kind of young pitcher the Twins need; Fangraphs projects their rotation to again be the worst in the American League.

Six years of De Leon would not necessarily constitute a fair return for two affordable years of Dozier, and the Dodgers are willing to include other prospects in the deal, sources say."

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/blue-jays-edwin-encarnacion-mets-jay-bruce-trevor-plouffe-brian-dozier-notes-010517

It seems unlikely it was ever 1:1

[DaveW]

Dave, any more details you can give? Have they found some names for third piece that Twins seems more interested in?

Source knows the names, doesn't want it mentioned/leaked for various reasons. Most of those names have been "held" from me as well, so I don't know much that I haven't "shared"

[CiabanItReal]

 

They're not at all the same pitcher. I mentioned earlier that the Braves overhauled his mechanics and his pitch approach, and it took time for Newcomb to work with the pitching coaches to develop comfort in that new approach and delivery. He finished the season on an absolute tear, and it was very obvious in watching him when he became comfortable on the mound. That led to the walk rate this season as it dropped tremendously at the end of the season.

 

I'd say by mid-season 2017, it'd not be surprising if Newcomb was considered among the top 10 pitching prospects in the game, if he's still in the minor leagues.

were talking about a month worth of production, I don't feel comfortable drawing to big of a conclusion from that, and it seemed like even though his walk rate dropped it was still pretty high over all.

I wish I could find your original post, but the amount of back tracking I'd have to do to find it isn't worth the trouble.

[CiabanItReal]

 

But from the sound of most posters and pundits Verdugo, Stewart and Buehler are also untouchable in this deal.

 

Kershaw, Meada, Hill, Urias, Kazmir, Stewart, Stripling, Wood and McCarthy are likely all ahead of De Leon in 2017 and most would likely be ahead of him in 2018 by the time he's 26 and the team is then ready to have a whole new crop of early-20's arms knocking at the door. His path to the majors is dubious at best and even were he to become a full-time starter, it likely would be short lived due to the depth behind him. I can't imagine many Dodgers fans would give up De Leon plus some relatively minor parts and not feel good coming out of a trade for Dozier.

I'm pretty skeptical that last batch of names is ahead of DeLeon on the depth chart, if the dodgers keep DeLeon, they may end up trading Kaz and McCarthy to clear some salary cap, and make room for better pitchers.

And DeLeon is a better pitcher than Stewart, Stripling and Wood.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if DeLeon won the 5th starter spot out of spring training.

[AZTwin]

I look forward to seeing how the potential deal works out, but I got to admit I've been pretty discouraged with the packages thrown out on here (including those where it's only Deleon and Alvarez). Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised

[CiabanItReal]

 

Dave, any more details you can give? Have they found some names for third piece that Twins seems more interested in?

The dodgers 40 man roster is currently full which is half the reason they haven't made Jansen's signing official (the other being he's on his honeymoon) they'll obviously need to clear space for both, and instead of cutting someone, they could include someone from the 40 man roster.

http://m.dodgers.mlb.com/la/roster/

Maybe someone like Kyle Farmer, who's versatile and can play 1st and 3rd well, plus Catch, and is major league ready, they did just sign another minor league catcher recently.

It could be a ****tier player like Darin Ruff or Segduin or Chris Taylor plus a decent lower level lotto ticket like Immani Abdulla.

[Bill Tanner]

 

Source knows the names, doesn't want it mentioned/leaked for various reasons. Most of those names have been "held" from me as well, so I don't know much that I haven't "shared"

To be clear, please tell me you are referring to the 3rd and 4th pieces.  Or, do you believe that JDL + Alvarez may no longer be the 1st and 2nd pieces?  Thanks Dave!

[nytwinsfan]

 

To be clear, please tell me you are referring to the 3rd and 4th pieces.  Or, do you believe that JDL + Alvarez may no longer be the 1st and 2nd pieces?  Thanks Dave!

On twitter Dave is definitely still expecting/reporting that the package is JDL + Alvarez + 3rd piece and that the Twins and Dodgers are haggling over the 3rd piece. No clue if he/his source is correct, but that's still his reporting.  Gosh I hope so. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Source knows the names, doesn't want it mentioned/leaked for various reasons. Most of those names have been "held" from me as well, so I don't know much that I haven't "shared"

 

To be honest, I personally find this odd given the names already leaked.  Then again, what do I know?   I really hope you're right..... JDL + Alvarez + 3rd piece (Stewart or Ruiz are my preferences) seems like a pretty decent deal for BD. 

 

Now that said, I just want this done.. I've got to think LA has the prospect currency to get it done.  They just do... 

[laloesch]

 

On twitter Dave is definitely still expecting/reporting that the package is JDL + Alvarez + 3rd piece and that the Twins and Dodgers are haggling over the 3rd piece. No clue if he/his source is correct, but that's still his reporting.  Gosh I hope so. 

 

I doubt it.  This is taking far too long. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Let's get this done. All of us have trade-dozier-fatigue. I want the trade to happen so the rest of the offseason can commence.

[Steve Lein]

Found this mention interesting: Link

 

Article is talking about the "17 most intriguing MLB people for 2017"

 

"7. Andrew Friedman, president of baseball operations, Dodgers

 

If building one of the game's great farm systems was the goal, mission accomplished. Corey Seager is the reigning Rookie of the Year, Julio Urias is an obvious breakout candidate, and, with Cody Bellinger and others, there's plenty more coming.

 

But something tells us the more than $1 billion invested in player payroll by the Stan Kasten/Magic Johnson group over the past four seasons was aimed -- and the roughly $250 million payroll for '17 is aimed -- at advancing to and winning on the World Series stage for the first time since 1988. As it stands, the Dodgers have plenty of long-term viability, but do they have enough to go the distance right now? Merely retaining their prominent free agents (Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner) cost the Dodgers nearly $200 million. Getting this roster over the hump might take a trade that forces Friedman to dip into that precious prospect pool."

[CiabanItReal]

Freaking 100 pages of torture.

[Doomtints]

 

Freaking 100 pages of torture.

 

This conversation will go on for as long as Dozier is a Twin, and not just in this thread.

 

[beehles]

Any chance that the Fernandez signing for LA means a possible departure of Calhoun in the deal with the Twins? Maybe a JDL, Stewart, Calhoun package. They'd have Dozier as their everyday 2nd basemen and Fernandez as another guy to add to the system as a potential weapon. I'd probably go for that type of deal.