Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Steve Lein]

I think the Dodger are jumping the gun on Bellinger.  He's only played 3 games at the AAA level.  Pretty big jump from AA to AAA but i understand their enthusiasm in him to this point. 

 

Personally, I would take Bellinger as the first piece over De Leon, even with the Twins pitching needs. He's a stud hitter. I know this isn't going to happen, but would be my preference all things considered.

 

The same reason he is the off-limits fit for the Dodgers, works here. A-Gone is gone in 2 years, so is Mauer. Bellinger also can play outfield (probably pretty well) if you're on the Sano moves to 1B when Mauer is done side like I am.

 

I would rate a Bellinger and Stewart led package just as highly as a De Leon plus anyone else one.

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

Dave tweeted yesterday (i think) that talks are heating back up again and that his source is certain a deal will be done by end of business week.

 

Yea or nay? I'm gonna gamble and say yea. Dozier for DeLeon, Alvarez and Stewart

I'd do it. We need more pitching, and it's best to trade Dozier while he's got top value. We get 3 starting pitching prospects? Heck yeah, it's not like we would be able to trade Dozier for Clayton Kershaw.

[nicksaviking]

Aren't trades supposed to be a bit painful for each team, probably more so for the buying team? I haven't seen any proposals from reporters or Dodgers fans that seem particularly painful. I'm sure they like De Leon, but he's like 8th, 9th or 10th in the current Dodgers SP depth chart with younger guys who throw harder nipping at his heels a level or two behind him, he's pretty much the definition of expendable.

 

If the Dodgers aren't willing to make available a couple of pieces that would make them wince for a premier talent, talks should be called off.

[biggentleben]

 

Just like Kyle Crick, top prospect with a ton of K's and BB's until his K's disappeared and all his success went with it.

 

They're not at all the same pitcher. I mentioned earlier that the Braves overhauled his mechanics and his pitch approach, and it took time for Newcomb to work with the pitching coaches to develop comfort in that new approach and delivery. He finished the season on an absolute tear, and it was very obvious in watching him when he became comfortable on the mound. That led to the walk rate this season as it dropped tremendously at the end of the season.

 

I'd say by mid-season 2017, it'd not be surprising if Newcomb was considered among the top 10 pitching prospects in the game, if he's still in the minor leagues.

[Han Joelo]

These threads have been super fun and interesting to follow, at least the first 2000 or so comments were, give or take 500.  I just skipped ten pages of unread comments and don't really feel like I've missed much.

 

My mean-spirited, uncharitable, January-gloom tinted takes:

 

1.  I hope the trade falls through, ALL the prospects involved flop, Dozier rakes and is traded to the Giants at the deadline.  Giants surge into playoffs, beating Dodgers on a Dozier home off of Kershaw in a key game where MadBum no hits the Dodgers.  Actually, he doesn't just no hit them, he somehow NEGATIVE hits them.  I think a negative-hitter is when the Dodger's second baseman, whomever it is at that point, doesn't even bother to go to the plate and just concedes the out.

 

2.  Barring that, the Dodgers trade JDL to the White Sox for Frazier, who they plug in at 2B.  Frazier flops, and JDL joins Giolito as future trivia category answers.  "We would have also accepted Zach Wheeler, Rubby De la Rosa, or Andrew Cashner."  The question was "Name some former top pitching prospects who were made available to headline major trades and didn't end up being worth a hill of beans." [author dons pitchfork/stat-proof body armor]

 

3.  The trade is consumated (sic).  JDL flops as a starter, but becomes a lights out closer.  Brock Stewart has a Boof Bonser-like career.  The third piece, the one that Doogie, in a Pullitzer Prize winning article on the Ringer identifies as the big hold-up, goes on to have a Hall of Fame career.  This third piece's name has not been mentioned in any of the 3000+ comments by anybody.

 

4.  Yadier Alvarez is eventually traded for Scott Diamond.  Not his corpse, the ACTUAL Scott Diamond, who is still pitching for someone, somewhere.

[drjim]

 

They're not at all the same pitcher. I mentioned earlier that the Braves overhauled his mechanics and his pitch approach, and it took time for Newcomb to work with the pitching coaches to develop comfort in that new approach and delivery. He finished the season on an absolute tear, and it was very obvious in watching him when he became comfortable on the mound. That led to the walk rate this season as it dropped tremendously at the end of the season.

 

I'd say by mid-season 2017, it'd not be surprising if Newcomb was considered among the top 10 pitching prospects in the game, if he's still in the minor leagues.

 

I think people have read your analysis on a variety of prospects and those with nothing invested in the Braves remain a little skeptical. But maybe it all works out.

[biggentleben]

 

I still wonder if the Braves and Twins ever had some meaningful conversations.  The news of Phillips nixing a trade to the Braves makes me wonder.  That an I'm getting bored of the Dodgers offers.

 

The Phillips trade was nixed in November but finally reported now because it hadn't gotten out. From the Braves beat reporters, there was never any actual trade. The Braves asked the Reds to see if Phillips would be amenable to a deal before they even started talking names, and Phillips said no. That was at the GM meetings.

 

The Braves have since signed Sean Rodriguez to do a lot of what they had hoped Phillips would provide. They've been in on Dozier, but like with Sale, Quintana, and Archer, they're only in if the price is right. Albies was only on the table in those three for Sale, not the other two, just FYI.

[biggentleben]

 

I think people have read your analysis on a variety of prospects and those with nothing invested in the Braves remain a little skeptical. But maybe it all works out.

 

That's their prerogative. I heard over the last few months how "positive" I was on prospects from all teams, so my write ups are not positive on Braves guys due to my team allegiance. I pride myself on being critical where criticism is deserved and complimentary where it is also deserved.

 

However, one of the recurring themes in this thread is the scouting of stat lines. While sometimes you can see things in a stat line in the minor leagues, stats, like team wins, are not the goal of the minor leagues. It is development of the player to become a future major leaguer. There are often a load of things going on that may positively or negatively affect statistics due to environment, mechanical alterations, or age-relative-to-level. Those things can't just be determined in stats, and throwing out stats only in a minor league argument is missing a big component of what is going on, whether we're discussing the Braves or any other team.

[rossrarelytalks]

 

Aren't trades supposed to be a bit painful for each team, probably more so for the buying team? I haven't seen any proposals from reporters or Dodgers fans that seem particularly painful. I'm sure they like De Leon, but he's like 8th, 9th or 10th in the current Dodgers SP depth chart with younger guys who throw harder nipping at his heels a level or two behind him, he's pretty much the definition of expendable.

 

If the Dodgers aren't willing to make available a couple of pieces that would make them wince for a premier talent, talks should be called off.

De Leon is the Dodgers no.1 pitching prospect and is ranked as a top 35 talent in all of MLB. Wouldn't that make you wince a little? Dodgers are trying to trade from a bit of depth, and can't just rely on rookie pitchers to be competitive this year -- we are already putting a ton of pressure on Julio Urias. Who should be able to handle it, but a top contender with two rookie starters isn't precisely what you'd want. Especially with Hill, who is elite when healthy but how many innings can we get from him? Not to mention Kershaw's back. And the fact that Maeda got tired, and reportedly has a potential grenade in his elbow.

 

So De Leon would make me wince. And we'd need to add let's say two other players. Verdugo would make me wince. Stewart would make me wince. Buehler definitely wince-worthy also, Calhoun and Sheffield also somewhat wince-worthy. I love Dozier, but prime Chase Utley he definitely is not. We have one year of elite production on top of four additional very solid years (not trying to denigrate him at all, but he only cracked a 120 WRC+ in 2016 -- although I saw the 4.7 fWAR in 14, too -- he's very good). But the question is how much is enough?

[drjim]

 

That's their prerogative. I heard over the last few months how "positive" I was on prospects from all teams, so my write ups are not positive on Braves guys due to my team allegiance. I pride myself on being critical where criticism is deserved and complimentary where it is also deserved.

 

However, one of the recurring themes in this thread is the scouting of stat lines. While sometimes you can see things in a stat line in the minor leagues, stats, like team wins, are not the goal of the minor leagues. It is development of the player to become a future major leaguer. There are often a load of things going on that may positively or negatively affect statistics due to environment, mechanical alterations, or age-relative-to-level. Those things can't just be determined in stats, and throwing out stats only in a minor league argument is missing a big component of what is going on, whether we're discussing the Braves or any other team.

 

That's fair, but there is probably a balance between scouting the stat lines and taking every bit of information available and spinning it the most positive way possible and expecting the best possible results.

 

My bias, for example, is if I hear "reworking mechanics" or "reworking the bad habits from another team" is that the pitcher in question is probably not going to make it in any meaningful sense. I keep an open mind and it does work out on occasion, but those are more the exception than the rule. Certainly wouldn't anticipate a good outcome as part of my analysis.

[nicksaviking]

 

De Leon is the Dodgers no.1 pitching prospect and is ranked as a top 35 talent in all of MLB. Wouldn't that make you wince a little? Dodgers are trying to trade from a bit of depth, and can't just rely on rookie pitchers to be competitive this year -- we are already putting a ton of pressure on Julio Urias. Who should be able to handle it, but a top contender with two rookie starters isn't precisely what you'd want. Especially with Hill, who is elite when healthy but how many innings can we get from him? Not to mention Kershaw's back. And the fact that Maeda got tired, and reportedly has a potential grenade in his elbow.

 

So De Leon would make me wince. And we'd need to add let's say two other players. Verdugo would make me wince. Stewart would make me wince. Buehler definitely wince-worthy also, Calhoun and Sheffield also somewhat wince-worthy. I love Dozier, but prime Chase Utley he definitely is not. We have one year of elite production on top of four additional very solid years (not trying to denigrate him at all, but he only cracked a 120 WRC+ in 2016 -- although I saw the 4.7 fWAR in 14, too -- he's very good). But the question is how much is enough?

 

But from the sound of most posters and pundits Verdugo, Stewart and Buehler are also untouchable in this deal.

 

Kershaw, Meada, Hill, Urias, Kazmir, Stewart, Stripling, Wood and McCarthy are likely all ahead of De Leon in 2017 and most would likely be ahead of him in 2018 by the time he's 26 and the team is then ready to have a whole new crop of early-20's arms knocking at the door. His path to the majors is dubious at best and even were he to become a full-time starter, it likely would be short lived due to the depth behind him. I can't imagine many Dodgers fans would give up De Leon plus some relatively minor parts and not feel good coming out of a trade for Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But from the sound of most posters and pundits Verdugo, Stewart and Buehler are also untouchable in this deal.

 

Kershaw, Meada, Hill, Urias, Kazmir, Stewart, Stripling, Wood and McCarthy are likely all ahead of De Leon in 2017 and most would likely be ahead of him in 2018 by the time he's 26 and the team is then ready to have a whole new crop of early-20's arms knocking at the door. His path to the majors is dubious at best and even were he to become a full-time starter, it likely would be short lived due to the depth behind him. I can't imagine many Dodgers fans would give up De Leon plus some relatively minor parts and not feel good coming out of a trade for Dozier.

 

But DeLeon has intrinsic value, regardless of the depth....because he could be traded for other stuff, not just Dozier. His value is really about his value to OTHER teams.....just as Dozier's is, frankly.

[nicksaviking]

 

But DeLeon has intrinsic value, regardless of the depth....because he could be traded for other stuff, not just Dozier. His value is really about his value to OTHER teams.....just as Dozier's is, frankly.

 

I don't know, De Leon plus spare parts doesn't sound all that painful to me from a Dodgers perspective. I think I'd be doing cartwheels if I cheered for them.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know, De Leon plus spare parts doesn't sound all that painful to me from a Dodgers perspective. I think I'd be doing cartwheels if I cheered for them.

 

But that has nothing to do with his actual value to other teams.......nothing at all. He's not worth less because they have great depth, because he can be dealt to 29 teams. It may or may not be painful to them, but that is because of other players, not his actual value.

 

And, I don't see the Twins doing DeLeon and nothing else that matters, I think they take their ball and go home if that's the offer.

[rossrarelytalks]

 

But from the sound of most posters and pundits Verdugo, Stewart and Buehler are also untouchable in this deal.

 

Kershaw, Meada, Hill, Urias, Kazmir, Stewart, Stripling, Wood and McCarthy are likely all ahead of De Leon in 2017 and most would likely be ahead of him in 2018 by the time he's 26 and the team is then ready to have a whole new crop of early-20's arms knocking at the door. His path to the majors is dubious at best and even were he to become a full-time starter, it likely would be short lived due to the depth behind him. I can't imagine many Dodgers fans would give up De Leon plus some relatively minor parts and not feel good coming out of a trade for Dozier.

I've said no to Buehler, but neither of the others would be an untouchable for me. Also, you're talking apples and oranges a bit here -- De Leon is a prospect. Maeda, McCarthy, Kazmir are MLBers with MLB records. Prospects are dicey, but De Leon has a real chance to be better than any of those three. Potentially. He also has a higher upside than Stripling, also probably Wood and Stewart. So he is actual talent. Just because there's no clear path to the majors at the moment given the Dodgers priorities doesn't lessen his value. I don't think it's fair to think the Dodgers should give up more just because they have depth. Dozier's value is Dozier's value. Twins can choose to pass (which I totally get!), but the value should be judged in a vacuum, I think.

 

I know we are in a good spot right now. But believe me, if you'd lived through that SOB Frank McCourt --who bankrupted the team and ruined the farm system -- you'd probably be a little more sympathetic. Not that you need to be. Cheers.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

And, I don't see the Twins doing DeLeon and nothing else that matters, I think they take their ball and go home if that's the offer.

 

That's all I was suggesting.

[TheLeviathan]

I think if DeLeon and nothing else was all the substance of the talks, we'd have heard they broke off negotiations weeks ago.

[Jacksson]

Appears this is dead in the water as LA has moved on in their second base situation and are signing a 28 yo Cuban defector who has not played in 2 years to a minor league contract.  The Dozier trade is toast until the mid season trading deadline.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Appears this is dead in the water as LA has moved on in their second base situation and are signing a 28 yo Cuban defector who has not played in 2 years to a minor league contract.  The Dozier trade is toast until the mid season trading deadline.

 

If you think that guy is blocking Dozier's spot i don't know what to tell you to walk you back from that ledge.  But...he's not.  

[Squirrel]

 

Appears this is dead in the water as LA has moved on in their second base situation and are signing a 28 yo Cuban defector who has not played in 2 years to a minor league contract.  The Dozier trade is toast until the mid season trading deadline.

If that was their answer, and that was available to them all along, then why have we even been negotiating for so long? If signing this guy is comparable to getting Dozier, then the Twins have big problems and will get nothing for him.

[biggentleben]

A few Twins fans in this thread have panicked over the Fernandez news. The guy first petitioned for instatement with Yasmany Tomas and was finally cleared in December 2015, yet it took over a year to sign. Something's up there, so I'd put the likelihood of him being their answer at VERY low. Good flyer type, though.

[Squirrel]

 

A few Twins fans in this thread have panicked over the Fernandez news. The guy first petitioned for instatement with Yasmany Tomas and was finally cleared in December 2015, yet it took over a year to sign. Something's up there, so I'd put the likelihood of him being their answer at VERY low. Good flyer type, though.

Yeah ... even as a plan B ... I don't see it. Maybe a plan E or F.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think if DeLeon and nothing else was all the substance of the talks, we'd have heard they broke off negotiations weeks ago.

 

There's probably enough of a difference between offering "nothing else" and offering "players of low significance" to keep talks alive.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Twins have many starters who have already reached AA.  While I believe we should trade Dozier, we have been taken before when the Dodger head was at TB, so I agree on caution is needed.  Without knowing the offer are any of the players offered better than what the Twins had at AA ball this past season. 

Maybe more of a change in philosophy is needed in teaching pitching here then to give our best asset away for suspects. 

Coast writers are great at using the media and their contacts to build up prospects in their clubs farm systems to help with this type of trade.  I believe that F/V are justified in looking for multiple tickets as many of the prospects(especially pitchers) do not work out.  The fact that De Leon is being offered shows what the Dodger brass thinks of him.

From what I've read and know about Freidman.  His philosophy isn't to try to win the deal from another team.  Some trades work out for both teams, some don't.  The Dodgers gave up Dee Gordon in order to create roster flexibility for example.  The sabremetrics based groups tend to stick with their guns on how they value people from both their assets and the assets that they're trying to acquire.  As for Deleon, he is being offered because they have Kershaw, Urias, Hill, Maeda, Kazmir, McCarthy, Deleon, Stewart, Wood, and Ryu all competing for 5 spots.  If they could move Kazmir or McCarthy for a quality second baseman they would do it in a heartbeat. Deleon has value the other two do not.  By the time Buehler and Alvarez are ready to join the rotation, Kazmir and McCarthy will be gone.  A lot of good pitchers have been traded over the years, it doesn't mean that their teams didn't think much of them when they got traded.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins have many starters who have already reached AA.  While I believe we should trade Dozier, we have been taken before when the Dodger head was at TB, so I agree on caution is needed.  Without knowing the offer are any of the players offered better than what the Twins had at AA ball this past season. 

Maybe more of a change in philosophy is needed in teaching pitching here then to give our best asset away for suspects. 

Coast writers are great at using the media and their contacts to build up prospects in their clubs farm systems to help with this type of trade.  I believe that F/V are justified in looking for multiple tickets as many of the prospects(especially pitchers) do not work out.  The fact that De Leon is being offered shows what the Dodger brass thinks of him.

 

You think GMs, in 2017, care what coast writers or BA or MLB.com or FG says about prospects? Not sure I understand.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

The Dodgers just signed Rich Hill so pitching is clearly an immediate need as well but instead there they chose to go get a FA instead of handing the reigns over to a 24 year old who already has innings under his belt. Out of all the Dodgers "premium" prospects why is he available?

The Dodgers signed Hill because they had an immediate need for a #2 starter whiie Urias develops and the Dodgers have enough depth and young kids to handle Hill possibly only giving them 120 innings in the regular season.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Aren't trades supposed to be a bit painful for each team, probably more so for the buying team? I haven't seen any proposals from reporters or Dodgers fans that seem particularly painful. I'm sure they like De Leon, but he's like 8th, 9th or 10th in the current Dodgers SP depth chart with younger guys who throw harder nipping at his heels a level or two behind him, he's pretty much the definition of expendable.

 

If the Dodgers aren't willing to make available a couple of pieces that would make them wince for a premier talent, talks should be called off.

I would say an organizations goal is to accumulate as much talent as possible so that if you have to fill a need externally it isn't painful and it doesn't set back the organization's long-term plans.  The deal should be good for both sides not necessarily "painful" for each team.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Appears this is dead in the water as LA has moved on in their second base situation and are signing a 28 yo Cuban defector who has not played in 2 years to a minor league contract.  The Dozier trade is toast until the mid season trading deadline.

The Dodgers have signed about 4 or 5 guys to minor league contracts this week. This one happens to play 2B.  Just adding depth.  Dodgers fans haven't seen anyone utilize the 40 man like Freidman and FAZ.  

[nicksaviking]

 

I would say an organizations goal is to accumulate as much talent as possible so that if you have to fill a need externally it isn't painful and it doesn't set back the organization's long-term plans.  The deal should be good for both sides not necessarily "painful" for each team.  

 

I can't imagine the Red Sox and Nationals fans don't feel a sting considering what they gave up even after getting Sale and Eaton.

 

And I'm not comparing Dozier to those guys, just that trades typically are bittersweet for both teams unless they are lopsided.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I can't imagine the Red Sox and Nationals fans don't feel a sting considering what they gave up even after getting Sale and Eaton.

 

And I'm not comparing Dozier to those guys, just that trades typically are bittersweet for both teams unless they are lopsided.

And I would say the Red Sox acquired as much organization depth as possible so that it wasn't painful for them to make the move especially if they were willing to eat Moancada's salary.  As for the Nationals time will tell. The Nationals are all in because they don't expect Harper to stay.  The Dodgers are not all in at the expense of the future. The White Sox should be giddy about the haul they got for Eaton.