Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[darin617]

 

Dodgers signed Jose Miguel Fernandez, a 2B Cuban FA. Minor league deal, though.

 

Has not played since 2014 and is 28 years old. The money was probably not very high. Gotta almost laugh if this is the best LA can come up as a scare tactic to drive down Dozier's price tag. If LA pulls that stunt the Twins should just call their bluff and wish them luck and wait for them to crawl back to you and pull the trigger.

[Doomtints]

 

Why do you keep comparing kershaw to Deleon? Kershaw was 20 when he was called up to majors and has thrown 200+ innings multiple times. Deleon is 24.5 years old and still stuck in the minors. His first full season in majors is likely to be his age 25 season. And he has never thrown more than 110 innings a season in his career and has experienced shoulder soreness. That's significantly less than other prospects of his stature. One is definitely not like the other

 

Kershaw just sat out half the year due to injury. He also missed time in 2014. He never played more than 122 innings in a year in the minors. 

 

Also, players who go to college are always debut older than those who don't by about 4 years....

[AZTwin]

I agree with most of the recent Twin posters here recently. Your front office is crazy for wanting "prospect" Deleon as the centerpiece from the Dodgers in a deal for Dozier. I think Deleon arm will completely fall off any day now. Lol

Our front office wanted it around Bellinger. Your front office wanted around Deleon. I'd take Bellinger and Alvarez

[Rhino and Compass]

I am growing increasingly pessimistic of a deal happening. This is just taking so long, and that just doesn't pass the smell test for me. 

Now, I know that the rumors and the stated desires of most Twins fans everywhere has been for a couple of pitching prospects to come back this way, but I wonder if Fernandez in LA might open the door for Willie Calhoun being included in something. This idea presupposes that we don't know how the new FO values Calhoun, Polanco, et al. 

Also, most importantly, that's the only positive spin I can think of, given the radio silence we've heard on this deal for a solid week now.

[AZTwin]

Kershaw just sat out half the year due to injury. He also missed time in 2014. He never played more than 122 innings in a year in the minors.

 

Also, players who go to college are always older than they debut by around 4 years........

You keep comparing to kershaw. He was able to pitch 180 innings his age 20 seasons. Deleon is 24.5 and has never shown coming close to that

[CiabanItReal]

 

Why do you keep comparing kershaw to Deleon? Kershaw was 20 when he was called up to majors and has thrown 200+ innings multiple times. Deleon is 24.5 years old and still stuck in the minors. His first full season in majors is likely to be his age 25 season. And he has never thrown more than 110 innings a season in his career and has experienced shoulder soreness. That's significantly less than other prospects of his stature. One is definitely not like the other

That was the first time I did, I think your confusing posters, which is fine in 91 pages of posts. And I wasn't directly comparing them anyway.

Actually he threw 114ip between two levels in 2015.

[darin617]

 

He's been on the market for a while. I'm curious what the hold up was as he was a highly regarded contact guy with good fielding skills.

 

From what I read great contact guy and that is where it ends. That and not playing since 2014, between his layoff, a lack of impact tools (his speed, power and fielding are all below-average). yawn...
 

[Rosterman]

Dodgers signed 28-year-old Cuban Jose Fernandez. He may need some time in the minors, but probably means Dodgers aren't anxious for Dozier.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

You keep comparing to kershaw. He was able to pitch 180 innings his age 20 seasons. Deleon is 24.5 and has never shown coming close to that

Why do you keep adding these halfs to his age? If someone asked you your age would you tell them 29 3/4 or something? He's just 24, last year was his age 23 season, this year is his age 24 season.

[doscinco]

The fact that the Twins haven't walked away yet, despite not receiving the offers they want, proves that to kinda want to trade him. I mean, they've been "talking" to teams for 2 months now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

His ERA went up signicantly in those incremental innings. In pros he never has approached that type of workload

He wasn't altogether that effective in college, hence why he was a 24th rounder. Not at all clear that workload caused his ineffectiveness late in 2013.

[LewFordLives]

I'm starting to question how this entire situation has been handled by the Twins front office. Why are they taking so long to end this one way or another? This is becoming a large distraction. If in fact the Dodgers are only offering Deleon and some roster filler, then the two sides are too far apart to come to an agreement and talks should have been shut down weeks ago. Just tell everyone Dozier will be our opening day second baseman and move on.

 

One more argument in favor of keeping Dozier.....keep in mind that it's not just two years of Dozier we'd be giving up, but also a compensation draft pick should he choose to walk when his contract is up.

[AZTwin]

Why do you keep adding these halfs to his age? If someone asked you your age would you tell them 29 3/4 or something? He's just 24, last year was his age 23 season, this year is his age 24 season.

6 months is a long time when you are comparing prospects. Thebaseballcube rounds by 3 decimals when talking about age and pro debut. At the trade deadline, people like you would say Deleon is only 24 when the truth is he is closer to 25 than 24 and still stuck in the minors

[Otto von Ballpark]

One more argument in favor of keeping Dozier.....keep in mind that it's not just two years of Dozier we'd be giving up, but also a compensation draft pick should he choose to walk when his contract is up.

Comp picks were weakened with the move to the qualifying offet system, and even further in the new CBA. It can still be a factor in the calculation, but it is nowhere near the factor it was when we were debating trading Johan, for example (especially 2 years out).

[Doomtints]

 

6 months is a long time when you are comparing prospects. Thebaseballcube rounds by 3 decimals when talking about age and pro debut. At the trade deadline, people like you would say Deleon is only 24 when the truth is he is closer to 25 than 24 and still stuck in the minors

 

That's not a decimal.  Everything after the decimal point means days.

 

Age 24.063 = Age 24 and 63 days. 

 

De Leon made his MLB debut at age 24.028, or just after his 24th birthday.

[Rhino and Compass]

 

Comp picks were weakened with the move to the qualifying offet system, and even further in the new CBA. It can still be a factor in the calculation, but it is nowhere near the factor it was when we were debating trading Johan, for example (especially 2 years out).

Not only that, if your goal is to leverage Dozier into taking advantage of the Buxton Sano era, you are counting on a player who, optimistically would be MLB ready in 2021, the last year of Buxton/Sano's rookie deal. (Dozier plays 2 more years, player drafted in 2019, then fast tracked to the majors) 

[AZTwin]

That's not a decimal. Everything after the decimal point means days.

 

Age 24.063 = Age 24 and 63 days.

 

De Leon made his MLB debut at age 24.028, or just after his 24th birthday.

My mistake. My point remains. It does still consider days which is valuable

[Doomtints]

Looking at the splits for De Leon in his 4 starts is interesting.

 

He was very good against LHP, but there were a few RHP who had some success against him.  He allowed 5 home runs in those 4 games.

 

Many of the hitters who hit well off of him were rookies like him.  This is not unusual considering he was a September call up playing against others who were September call ups.  But this signifies that the home runs may be on the Dodgers -- they didn't know how to pitch to these new players. 

 

The only veteran of any consequence who got a hit off of De Leon was Starlin Castro. 

[Strato Guy]

 

Looking at the splits for De Leon in his 4 starts is interesting.

 

He was very good against LHP, but there were a few RHP who had some success against him.  He allowed 5 home runs in those 4 games.

 

Many of the hitters who hit well off of him were rookies like him.  This is not unusual considering he was a September call up playing against others who were September call ups.  But this signifies that the home runs may be on the Dodgers -- they didn't know how to pitch to these new players. 

 

The only veteran of any consequence who got a hit off of De Leon was Starlin Castro. 

His first 4 starts in the majors is not a large enough sample size to mean a whole lot.

 

[biggentleben]

 

I would not be concerned about Newcombe's walk rate as long as the strike out rate is high. It is not unusual for very good pitchers to have high walk rates (even in AAA). I think it can be a mistake for teams to try to fix it. In fact, you can learn from looking at k+bb rate. It shows a pitcher's dominance and a hitter's inability to make contact.

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/

 

There can also be reasons behind that walk rate as well if he's working on something with the team, as I mentioned.

[Strato Guy]

Most Twins feel that now is the time to trade Dozier. He will probably never have a higher trading value than right now. I wonder if the Dodgers kind of feel the same way about De Leon. If he does not keep improving this year, his stock is going to drop. At the present time, he is the Dodgers 5th or 6th starter. He might not even start off on the roster on opening day. Maybe the Dodgers are a little concerned about De Leon's 4 starts he had last year and that he might not be quite as good as advertised.

[specialiststeve]

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Cuban infielder Jose Miguel Fernandez.

Fernandez defected from Cuba in December of 2015 and is currently a free agent. He's viewed by many as major league-ready and could immediately be an option for the Dodgers at second base. The 28-year-old hit .319/.403/.423 over 608 games across eight seasons in the Cuban National Series.

 

 

There goes any leverage and possible deal with LA.... Looks like he may be staying...

[Seth Stohs]

 

The fact that the Twins haven't walked away yet, despite not receiving the offers they want, proves that to kinda want to trade him. I mean, they've been "talking" to teams for 2 months now.

 

This is my thought too... The Twins are trying everything to work out a good deal for Dozier and keep optios open. Tells me they haven't received anywhere near an acceptable offer.

[gunnarthor]

Despite this taking 90+ pages of posts, it's probably a reach to call this a distraction.  Both teams will have to move forward eventually but January baseball isn't that important.

 

Eventually, the Twins will have to consider a team with Dozier on it and how to build that roster and the Dodgers will have to pursue another second base option.  But we're probably not really that close to that. 

[jimmer]

Right now, this team is basically the same 103 loss team we had last year.  While this team is, IMO, clearly better than a 103 loss team, it's a 90+ loss team which we've done zero to improve in the short term.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There goes any leverage and possible deal with LA.... Looks like he may be staying...

 

Again... 28

 

minor league contract

 

That should tell you a lot. This guy is plan B or C.  Not plan A.

[laloesch]

I think we can officially call this deal dead, busted, etc. Dodgers are close to signing Cuban Second Baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez.

[AZTwin]

I think we can officially call this deal dead, busted, etc. Dodgers are close to signing Cuban Second Baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez.

This is good news

[TyTY23]

This is good news

Good news for the Dodgers, lol

[CiabanItReal]

 

My mistake. My point remains. It does still consider days which is valuable

Not really, if by All-Star break he's made every start, and he's on around 100 innings pitched, and on pace to hit like 150, has shown improvement on his breaking pitches, and is still striking out a ton of batters and not walking anyone, and still has 6+ years of team control, no one is going to care if he's 24. 3/4 of a year old vs 24.5 years old vs 24.7/12 of a year old.