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Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

DaveW

By DaveW
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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Doomtints GCL Twins

Doomtints

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Posted
Posted

 

You can see Deleon become an ace? Can you be classified as an ace if you can't get over the 162 qualifying innings?

 

Small sample size. He has only been at A or above for full years since 2015 (below A-level, the seasons are very short). It is not unheard of for pitchers to be on innings limits that first year of A ball.

 

De Leon was injured twice as far as I can tell. He missed a month due to an ankle injury which the team initially forced him to try to play through (and while he did play, he was still tossing at a high level). Eventually they shut him down, and when he came back he pitched one game (and again performed at a high level) but they then shut him down due to shoulder soreness. It makes sense that the shoulder fatigue was a conditioning issue from being shut down with the ankle sprain.

 

Neither of these injuries look like a concern.

 

I don't know of any writer who thinks that De Leon is not one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. His numbers back that up. It's only the Twins fans who seem to suspect he is the next Vance Worley. He is certainly better than any Twins pitching prospect since Liriano.

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Oxtung First Round Pick

Oxtung

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Posted
Posted

Instead of replying to many posts individually I'm going to just type one post stating my current position. Before I do however I want to remind everyone in this thread that these are just opinions (mine and yours) and as much as you would like it to be so, there is no right or wrong answer to this situation.

 

First, I believe Dozier should be traded. I think a deal with two top 100 prospects and one or two others, depending on the quality of the first two, is a fair return for a player that consistently produces "All-Star" worthy seasons of 4+ WAR and has shown an ability to peak 6+ WAR. 

 

For a more specific breakdown I think a return of De Leon, Verdugo and Buehler would be a fair return. It allows the Dodgers to keep their most coveted prospects and Stewart so their MLB pitching depth is maintained. It gives the Twins immediate rotation help, a high upside flier and a position player to help reduce the risk of the two arms (plus I actually think the Twins will need another OF). 

 

If the Twins are unable to obtain a return similar to the one above I think they should hold onto Dozier and reassess in July and then again twelve months from now if necessary. I acknowledge that there is risk to this path forward. He could lose some value, but I do not believe it is as great a risk as many of you seem to. I do not think he value will crater. I also believe there are reasonable paths forward where his value is maintained or in a few cases (though below 15% in chance lets say) it is increased.

 

The most likely outcome of a trade is between 2-4 wins a season. If the return is De Leon and Stewart as some of you have advocated, then the expected wins falls closer to two. Mike Pelfrey gave two wins per year when healthy. That is available every offseason on the FA market for a reasonable price. IMO that has a negligible amount of value to the Twins.

 

I also think it is important to maintain perspective. Some posters are making the claim the only path towards contention is via a Dozier trade. The Twins need to add 35 wins per year to become the solid playoff team we all desire. It is Berrios, Jay, Kohl Stewart, Romero, Thorpe and Jorge that determine whether the Twins return to contention. De Leon is just the icing on the cake.

 

Here's to hoping that cake has a big blue pennant drawn upon it!

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USAFChief Cooperstown

USAFChief

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

When people are discussing a 14-15 WAR for De Leon being a net win, I feel it necessary to make that point :)   especially since that isn't even the floor of the deal.

 

WAR is a terrible metric to value pitching, but using the coin of the realm...14-15 WAR from De Leon over the next six years is a pretty aggressive estimate.

 

I'd be inclined to make the del if the Twins were somehow guaranteed something like that.

 

But they aren't, and the most likely return is considerably less.

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

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Posted
Posted

I'm starting to wonder if Friedman is leveraging a delta between JDL's perceived value and his actual value. I would be more excited if Stewart were the starting point, where the opposite is the case IMO. Perhaps they could get a better 2nd piece that way.

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Doomtints GCL Twins

Doomtints

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WAR is a terrible metric to value pitching, but using the coin of the realm...14-15 WAR from De Leon over the next six years is a pretty aggressive estimate.

 

Carlos Silva got 9 fWAR in his 4 years as a Twin, playing as a Twin at roughly the same age that De Leon would.

 

"De Leon is worse than Carlos Silva" is a very strong opinion which we can review in about five years.

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drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

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Carlos Silva got 9 fWAR in his 4 years as a Twin, playing as a Twin at roughly the same age that De Leon would.

 

"De Leon is worse than Carlos Silva" is a very strong opinion which we can review in about five years.

Silva also made about 120 starts over that period.

 

A big part of that prediction is staying healthy. If De Leon makes 120 starts he should beat that WAR mark, but it is far from certain for any pitcher.

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TheLeviathan All-Star

TheLeviathan

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Posted
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The most likely outcome of a trade is between 2-4 wins a season. If the return is De Leon and Stewart as some of you have advocated, then the expected wins falls closer to two. Mike Pelfrey gave two wins per year when healthy. That is available every offseason on the FA market for a reasonable price. IMO that has a negligible amount of value to the Twins.

 

I also think it is important to maintain perspective. Some posters are making the claim the only path towards contention is via a Dozier trade. The Twins need to add 35 wins per year to become the solid playoff team we all desire. It is Berrios, Jay, Kohl Stewart, Romero, Thorpe and Jorge that determine whether the Twins return to contention. De Leon is just the icing on the cake.

 

Some of this is talking past each other, your proposed offer you'd accept isn't that far off from what most of us would take also.  No one is asking for DeLeon and a couple of scrubs.  Where the disagreement comes in is how some are framing the outcomes of this situation.  You're framing your case based on the worst case scenario of the trade and make no mention of the worst case in your scenario.

 

Dozier has shown a propensity to go long stretches being a total pumpkin.  A "you should consider benching this guy" level of ineptitude.  Last year it was for two months.  The previous year it was closer to three months.  

 

There is a decent chance (like 15% you suggested let's say) that in addition to the value he is guaranteed to lose in terms of his age and team control, that he could lose heaping piles of value by being more Slump Dozier than Ruth Dozier.  

 

So not trading Dozier relies on the hope that we can deal him at the deadline (bucking a decade long trend that has already been established) or next offseason (when he is older and only signed for one year) for an equal package.  That's unlikely.  More unlikely than you seem to care to acknowledge.  But you readily acknowledge DeLeon's downside. Could DeLeon and all the guys we acquire bust?  Yes, they could.

 

Which has better odds of helping this team though?  That's what matters and I do think that path is pretty clear.  It's evident our front office agrees or we wouldn't even have this thread.

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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Not sure how this effects the Dozier trade talks but the Dodgers just signed a 28-year-old Cuban who plays second base. Probably puts a little pressure on the Twins. Jose Miguel Fernandez.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/jose-miguel-fernandez-norge-ruiz-play-winter-ball-dominican-republic/

Honestly, it shouldn't affect the Dozier market at all.

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TheLeviathan All-Star

TheLeviathan

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I'm pretty sure our FO understands that propsects like De Leon might bust and are taking that into account in their trade demands.  If it doesn't work out, fine.  We keep Dozier and can see where we are in July.

 

Where we are is "looking at a lesser return", regardless of his performance if history is any indication.

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rossrarelytalks Prep Ball

rossrarelytalks

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Posted
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From a post above: "For a more specific breakdown I think a return of De Leon, Verdugo and Buehler would be a fair return. It allows the Dodgers to keep their most coveted prospects and Stewart so their MLB pitching depth is maintained. It gives the Twins immediate rotation help, a high upside flier and a position player to help reduce the risk of the two arms (plus I actually think the Twins will need another OF)."

 

Boy, this is just the trade that never ends, isn't it? It's interesting to read the Twins fan takes on this -- as I noted earlier, I'm a pretty fair minded guy. I thought the above post was definitely in the right ballpark. Issue for me is that both Buehler and Verdugo are really good prospects and I'd be reluctant to trade both for Dozier (and by the way -- I do think De Leon is a real prospect -- he should be very good and I'd be very happy to have him as a Dodger). I get that Twins fans think Dozier is worth all three of those guys. I'm not sure, but it seems close. I'd do De Leon, Verdugo and somebody else easily -- it's just who is that third guy. Just don't know how important this trade is to the Dodger FO -- Dozier really helps us, but is not having him worth holding the prospects? Dodgers are trying to be continually competitive and we will be with or without Dozier. We'll see. It's definitely interesting.

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TheLeviathan All-Star

TheLeviathan

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Maybe, maybe not.  But worrying about his value in July is not a good reason to take a lesser deal now.

 

I would say worrying about probabilities about future value is very prudent.  Your judgment about the current deal being "lesser" should be informed by that thinking.  And maybe it is, that might be why we're still here.

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Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Leader
Posted
Posted

 

The problem is, in here, there seems to be a huge disagreement about what Dozier is worth.  Seems that when/if a trade is made, some are going to say it was too little for Dozier when it could very well be a fair trade (or even an overpay).

 

Now, if there is no trade, some may just figure that the Dodgers weren't offering fair value (or more) and that may not be the case at all.  For example, if De Leon and Alvarez are on the table and the trade doesn't happen.

The problem is, in here, there seems to be a huge disagreement about what Dozier is worth. Seems that when/if a trade is made, some are going to say it was a huge overpay, when it very well could be a fair trade (or even an underpay).

 

Now, if there is no trade, some may just figure that the Dodgers weren't offering fair value (or less) and that may just be the case. For example, if only De Leon was on the table and the trade didn't happen.

 

:)

 

It's all speculation, but I don't think it's fair to judge the outcome, on either side, based on facts we just don't know.

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BuxtonBandwagon Prep Ball

BuxtonBandwagon

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Posted

After reading through this thread a lot I'm hoping the twins are able to get a position player out of the deal too. We need pitching and it's tough to get and it's riskier. So I'd like to see us get one position player. I'm not sure why but I really seem to like Lux, seems like he'd be a great lottery ticket get.

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biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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Oklahoma, IDK what your beef with Newcomb is, but I'm also skeptical of him as well.

 

I just have a hard time trusting a guy that walks that many hitters, it's one thing if it's happening at the lower levels, with a younger pitcher, and you can think that they'll work they're way out of it, but his control problems remind me of a giants prospect named Kyle Crick.

 

I've mentioned before what was going on with Newcomb and his walk rate early on in the season. 

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diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

 

Not sure how this effects the Dozier trade talks but the Dodgers just signed a 28-year-old Cuban who plays second base. Probably puts a little pressure on the Twins. Jose Miguel Fernandez.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/jose-miguel-fernandez-norge-ruiz-play-winter-ball-dominican-republic/

 

28 years old

minor league contract

no ML experience.

 

This is probably plan B or C, even if they get Dozier. 

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jorgenswest Cedar Rapids Kernels

jorgenswest

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Posted

I would not be concerned about Newcombe's walk rate as long as the strike out rate is high. It is not unusual for very good pitchers to have high walk rates (even in AAA). I think it can be a mistake for teams to try to fix it. In fact, you can learn from looking at k+bb rate. It shows a pitcher's dominance and a hitter's inability to make contact.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/

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CiabanItReal Prep Ball

CiabanItReal

Provisional Member
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Posted

 

I've mentioned before what was going on with Newcomb and his walk rate early on in the season. You can choose to ignore that information, but that's what happened.

I don't think I chose to ignore anything, there's 90 pages here, I'll go back and look it up if you can tell me what page to go to.

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AZTwin First Round Pick

AZTwin

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Did Clayton Kershaw pitch like an ace last year? He didn't reach 162 qualifying innings yet still got cy young votes.

Why do you keep comparing kershaw to Deleon? Kershaw was 20 when he was called up to majors and has thrown 200+ innings multiple times. Deleon is 24.5 years old and still stuck in the minors. His first full season in majors is likely to be his age 25 season. And he has never thrown more than 110 innings a season in his career and has experienced shoulder soreness. That's significantly less than other prospects of his stature. One is definitely not like the other

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Trueblue222 Prep Ball

Trueblue222

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Posted

I agree with most of the recent Twin posters here. Your front office is crazy for wanting "prospect" Deleon as the centerpiece from the Dodgers in a deal for Dozier. I think Deleon arm will completely fall off any day now. Lol

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