Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[DaveW]

I've said before I like Stewart, but certainly not as a second piece. If he's the 3rd piece to De Leon and Alvarez, I take it. If he's the second piece with Alvaraz not being included, I'm going elsewhere.

That is pretty much the Twins stance as well. Though it's very unlikely they get him as a third piece. Dodgers won't want to give up 3 of their better pitching prospects IMo

[gunnarthor]

I used to think that Alvarez would be off the table b/c of the size of the investment but I'm not so sure now.

 

Alvarez wasn't the Dodgers big signing - they actually spent a lot more on Hector Olivera but traded him to Atlanta as part of the Latos trade.  So I don't know if the cost of signing Alvarez would be the reason they didn't trade him.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

 

 

On the other hand, how was it ok for the Red Sox to trading Moncada, despite the "investment" they'd made in him, but the Dodger's can't trade Alvarez…because of the investment?  Anyway, this feels like some high stakes poker, and though I've been a Ryan defender in the past, I'm glad its Falvey and Levine sitting in the chair on this one.  The one-for-one Span trade looks terrible in hindsight, but the longer we wait, the more confident I am that the Twins will get the best return possible.

I (personally) am not averse to trading Alvarez because of the investment (or for any other reason).  Moncada was traded for 3 years of control (50% more than 2 years) for Chris Sale.  I think you ask baseball fans, front offices, and anybody that knows anything about baseball and I think 99% would say they would take Sale over Dozier.  I also think its not even a close call if you had to choose.  Dozier is a very good player, but he's not Chris Sale.  That does not diminish Dozier, as much as it speaks of Sale.  Then add that you can have Sale for 50% longer.  So it's not a matter of never wanting a deal a prospect, its a matter of what you're getting back for me and for other Dodger fans.  I will probably get banned from all the Dodger boards for saying this, but I would trade Seager if there was good cause, even with his 5 years of control.

[mazeville]

 

I (personally) am not averse to trading Alvarez because of the investment (or for any other reason).  Moncada was traded for 3 years of control (50% more than 2 years) for Chris Sale.  I think you ask baseball fans, front offices, and anybody that knows anything about baseball and I think 99% would say they would take Sale over Dozier.  I also think its not even a close call if you had to choose.  Dozier is a very good player, but he's not Chris Sale.  That does not diminish Dozier, as much as it speaks of Sale.  Then add that you can have Sale for 50% longer.  So it's not a matter of never wanting a deal a prospect, its a matter of what you're getting back for me and for other Dodger fans.  I will probably get banned from all the Dodger boards for saying this, but I would trade Seager if there was good cause, even with his 5 years of control.

 

No Twins fan who is sane will say Dozier is the trade prospect that Sale was. I was a little surprised the White Sox didn't get MORE for Chris Sale, but hey, that's me. 

 

Personally, I think a trade of Dozier for DeLeon + Stewart + another piece (Lux?) should get it done, but what do I know I'm just a blog commenter. 

[drjim]

 

I (personally) am not averse to trading Alvarez because of the investment (or for any other reason).  Moncada was traded for 3 years of control (50% more than 2 years) for Chris Sale.  I think you ask baseball fans, front offices, and anybody that knows anything about baseball and I think 99% would say they would take Sale over Dozier.  I also think its not even a close call if you had to choose.  Dozier is a very good player, but he's not Chris Sale.  That does not diminish Dozier, as much as it speaks of Sale.  Then add that you can have Sale for 50% longer.  So it's not a matter of never wanting a deal a prospect, its a matter of what you're getting back for me and for other Dodger fans.  I will probably get banned from all the Dodger boards for saying this, but I would trade Seager if there was good cause, even with his 5 years of control.

 

But Alvarez is no Moncada either.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

No Twins fan who is sane will say Dozier is the trade prospect that Sale was. I was a little surprised the White Sox didn't get MORE for Chris Sale, but hey, that's me. 

 

Personally, I think a trade of Dozier for DeLeon + Stewart + another piece (Lux?) should get it done, but what do I know I'm just a blog commenter. 

 

Yeah, I would do that deal in a second. Absolutely.

[markos]

 

I used to think that Alvarez would be off the table b/c of the size of the investment but I'm not so sure now.

 

Alvarez wasn't the Dodgers big signing - they actually spent a lot more on Hector Olivera but traded him to Atlanta as part of the Latos trade.  So I don't know if the cost of signing Alvarez would be the reason they didn't trade him.

My inclination is also that Alvarez is off the table (sorry Dave! I wish I could believe!!). But that said, the Dodgers may have adjusted their opinion about him after having him in their system for a year. Maybe they think he is a huge injury risk? Or that there is no way that he can hold up as a starter? There are a few legitimate reasons why they would be willing to sell high on him. Basically, at this point I've convinced myself that if he is in a Dozier deal, then there must be something wrong with him.

[Han Joelo]

 

I (personally) am not averse to trading Alvarez because of the investment (or for any other reason).  Moncada was traded for 3 years of control (50% more than 2 years) for Chris Sale.  I think you ask baseball fans, front offices, and anybody that knows anything about baseball and I think 99% would say they would take Sale over Dozier.  I also think its not even a close call if you had to choose.  Dozier is a very good player, but he's not Chris Sale.  That does not diminish Dozier, as much as it speaks of Sale.  Then add that you can have Sale for 50% longer.  So it's not a matter of never wanting a deal a prospect, its a matter of what you're getting back for me and for other Dodger fans.  I will probably get banned from all the Dodger boards for saying this, but I would trade Seager if there was good cause, even with his 5 years of control.

Gosh, when you put it like that, it makes me feel like the Twins should ask for more!  De Leon nor Alvarez are remotely on par with Moncada as a prospect, Alvarez might compare to Kopech.  Dozier and Sale are somewhat comparable in that they are incredibly cheap.  What is Dozier getting paid?  $15 million for two years of Dozier's prime, coming off an MVP caliber season (I say that because if he'd had the season he just had for a winning team in a big market…)  

 

Obviously we all differ on what we expect of Dozier and Sale and all the prospects involved moving forward.  I expect Sale's arm to fall off, or get cut off in another jersey incident.  I also expect Dozier to have a couple of really nice age 30-31 seasons, kind of like Josh Donaldson just had, or…Justin Turner.  I don't even think Turner's contract would be a fair place to start if Dozier were on the open market.

[Squirrel]

MODERATOR WARNING:

 

 

Many posts have been removed because of bickering and trolling and general disrespect. If you can't get into a discussion without poking and prodding and all out getting into it with one another, go elsewhere. I know it's the season to be generous and kind, but those qualities are used up and gone for me in this thread. And if you see two getting into it, don't be piling on ... you become just as guilty. I don't want to have to close and lock another thread, especially one that is continuing to have interesting, if not repetitive dialog during a slow period, but I will. Good Lord people ... IT'S A GAME ... enjoy the banter, enjoy the disagreements, enjoy the speculation, enjoy the discussion ... and quit getting offended and quit taking pot shots ... seriously.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I used to think that Alvarez would be off the table b/c of the size of the investment but I'm not so sure now.

 

Alvarez wasn't the Dodgers big signing - they actually spent a lot more on Hector Olivera but traded him to Atlanta as part of the Latos trade.  So I don't know if the cost of signing Alvarez would be the reason they didn't trade him.

And look at what has happened to Olivera since.  Maybe the Dodgers knew something about his character and dumped him.  They do still  have Wood and Avilan on the roster from that deal.  Johnson and Latos were busts.  If Alvarez is on the table, I would be worried about his character because I can't see any reason other than that the Dodgers would deal him.

 

After reading both the Dodgers and Twins message boards I can understand why consummating such a deal has been difficult. 

[DaveW]

 

 I can't see any reason other than that the Dodgers would deal him.

 

 

For Dozier

[DodgerFan1234]

 

But Alvarez is no Moncada either.

Yeah, maybe I didn't explain myself well.  The only similarities I see at this point are that they were the top international signees in their respective years.  Moncada is more of a known quantity and has a higher profile as of now.  I guess I was just trying to address the $$ figure being a deterrent to actually moving him, which I think it isn't.  

 

The Dodgers have had an embarrassment of riches over the years when it comes to pitching.  Koufax, Drysdale, Newcome, to Hershiser, Fernando, (early) Nomo, to Kershaw, now Urias.  The one we let go in trade for a 2nd baseman turned out to be Pedro.  Man, that trade is seared into the mind every Dodger fan.  So, we tend to value the pitching a certain way.  Do some flame out ala Greg Miller? Sure but for the Dodgers, they tend to be more right than wrong on who they value as premium and don't tend to give them up.

[DodgerFan1234]

Here's a just posted scouting report on Alex Verdugo for informational purposes.  He's a name I've seen tossed around some on this board and others:

 

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/pleskoff-scouting-report-alex-verdugo/

[AZTwin]

Dodgers are just going to have to deal with the fact that they have to give up something (prospects) if they want to make a move. If they don't want to make a move then so be it. If Alvarez is off the table then Lux is probably a 3rd piece and someone like Calhoun is likely a 4th piece. De Leon and Stewart is not going to get it done. To be honest I'm not sure why we would want a guy like Stewart. Seems like we have a ton of guys just like him already in our system. De Leon is nice but he hasn't been able to make the jump, already 24, and has had shoulder issues. We aren't taking scraps for a 40 homer guy in majors. That's insulting. If you aren't trying to trade for him, that's fine with me. If you are, let's at least make this fair

[DaveW]

Man I'm just really really happy Falvey and co are in charge of this trade. I fear to think what we would settle for if the old guard was still around.

[AZTwin]

Man I'm just really really happy Falvey and co are in charge of this trade. I fear to think what we would settle for if the old guard was still around.

Yep. If what dodger posters are saying is true, it's an absolute joke what they are offering. The old staff would have been conned IMHO

[markos]

 

To be honest I'm not sure why we would want a guy like Stewart. Seems like we have a ton of guys just like him already in our system. 

I like Stewart a lot. I know he hasn't had the prospect hype of the other names, and has a preceived lower upside, but I think he has a good chance to be sneaky good - more than just a 5th starter. Now I fully admit that this is just scouting statlines (SSS statlines at that) , but I compared him to the following 4 pitchers who also had limited MLB looks:
Lucas Giolito
Jose Berrios
Reynaldo Lopez
Jose De Leon

 

Here is how Stewart ranked in various categories:
K% - 2nd
BB% - 2nd
Soft Contact% - 1st
Fastball velocity - 4th but a virtual tie with Giolito and Berrios (93.4, 93.3, 93,2)
Gap between fastball and changeup - 1st
Chase % - 1st
In zone Contact % - Most swing-and-misses on pitches in the strike zone
Out zone Contact % - 2nd Most swing-and-misses on pitches outside the strike zone
Overall Swinging Strike % - 1st

 

His strikeout/walk numbers were very similar to Berrios in the high minors. He has demonstrated the ability to miss bats in the big leagues. He is currently giving up too much hard contact, maybe too many flyballs and way too many homers. But there is enough positive indicators that I think he has legitimate Tanner Roark/Scott Baker upside and is not just a run-of-the-mill AAAA arm.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I like Stewart a lot. I know he hasn't had the prospect hype of the other names, and has a preceived lower upside, but I think he has a good chance to be sneaky good - more than just a 5th starter. Now I fully admit that this is just scouting statlines (SSS statlines at that) , but I compared him to the following 4 pitchers who also had limited MLB looks:
Lucas Giolito
Jose Berrios
Reynaldo Lopez
Jose De Leon

 

Here is how Stewart ranked in various categories:
K% - 2nd
BB% - 2nd
Soft Contact% - 1st
Fastball velocity - 4th but a virtual tie with Giolito and Berrios (93.4, 93.3, 93,2)
Gap between fastball and changeup - 1st
Chase % - 1st
In zone Contact % - Most swing-and-misses on pitches in the strike zone
Out zone Contact % - 2nd Most swing-and-misses on pitches outside the strike zone
Overall Swinging Strike % - 1st

 

His strikeout/walk numbers were very similar to Berrios in the high minors. He has demonstrated the ability to miss bats in the big leagues. He is currently giving up too much hard contact, maybe too many flyballs and way too many homers. But there is enough positive indicators that I think he has legitimate Tanner Roark/Scott Baker upside and is not just a run-of-the-mill AAAA arm.

 

The more I read about him, the more I like Stewart too. In some ways, almost more than De Leon, at least for being ready for a full season in 2017.

 

Outside of a few scouting reports that peg him as a 4/5, what else do people not like about him? He seems more than solid to me.

[laloesch]

 

I like Stewart a lot. I know he hasn't had the prospect hype of the other names, and has a preceived lower upside, but I think he has a good chance to be sneaky good - more than just a 5th starter. Now I fully admit that this is just scouting statlines (SSS statlines at that) , but I compared him to the following 4 pitchers who also had limited MLB looks:
Lucas Giolito
Jose Berrios
Reynaldo Lopez
Jose De Leon

 

Here is how Stewart ranked in various categories:
K% - 2nd
BB% - 2nd
Soft Contact% - 1st
Fastball velocity - 4th but a virtual tie with Giolito and Berrios (93.4, 93.3, 93,2)
Gap between fastball and changeup - 1st
Chase % - 1st
In zone Contact % - Most swing-and-misses on pitches in the strike zone
Out zone Contact % - 2nd Most swing-and-misses on pitches outside the strike zone
Overall Swinging Strike % - 1st

 

His strikeout/walk numbers were very similar to Berrios in the high minors. He has demonstrated the ability to miss bats in the big leagues. He is currently giving up too much hard contact, maybe too many flyballs and way too many homers. But there is enough positive indicators that I think he has legitimate Tanner Roark/Scott Baker upside and is not just a run-of-the-mill AAAA arm.

 

The more I read about him, the more I like Stewart too. In some ways, almost more than De Leon, at least for being ready for a full season in 2017.

 

Outside of a few scouting reports that peg him as a 4/5, what else do people not like about him? He seems more than solid to me.

 

isn't he only a two pitch pitcher? Fastball being his only real weapon?

[ScrapTheNickname]

Are dreams allowed? I dreamed last night that Dozier was traded for someone I had never heard of, a very underwhelming pitching prospect. I'm not kidding. I dreamed that I read the prospect's name and I was like ... really?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

isn't he only a two pitch pitcher? Fastball being his only real weapon?

 

Most places I've seen say his changeup is his best pitch, but that he also has a slider that can be at least mlb average. That is what fangraphs says on him above, two 60 pitches in his fastball and changeup, and a 50 slider to go along with 60 command. That all sounds positive to me.

[nicksaviking]

Stewart has grown on me as well. He averaged over 93 MPH on his FB and that was just his MLB numbers which were basically all late in the season, a time when many pitchers are wearing down and seeing velocity decrease, particularly young pitchers.

 

I also like the FB/Slider/changeup combo. I'd like to see him use the slider/changeup more but at least he's not farting around with a sinker or cutter much.

[nicksaviking]

 

isn't he only a two pitch pitcher? Fastball being his only real weapon?

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=592779&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/21/2016&s_type=2

 

Also fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16727&position=P

 

I really like how the first one, Brooksbaseball compiles pitch data though.

[markos]

 

Most places I've seen say his changeup is his best pitch, but that he also has a slider that can be at least mlb average. That is what fangraphs says on him above, two 60 pitches in his fastball and changeup, and a 50 slider to go along with 60 command. That all sounds positive to me.

Just as a clarification, those are Fangraph's future grades, not present grades. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Just as a clarification, those are Fangraph's future grades, not present grades. 

 

Yes, sorry, should have said that.

[markos]

 

Yes, sorry, should have said that.

No problem. I just didn't want other people to get TOO excited about Stewart.

[Vanimal46]

Man I'm just really really happy Falvey and co are in charge of this trade. I fear to think what we would settle for if the old guard was still around.

The old guard didn't settle for anything with Plouffe. How did that work?

 

I'm fine with Falvey and Co. It may be a little premature to praise them for their lack of activity.

[AZTwin]

My problem with Stewart is that he's already 25 and near the top of his potential. It would be the ultimate by high. He's a 4 or maybe 5. High floor low ceiling guy. Sure as a 3rd piece he's fine but it shouldn't be centered around him and another 24 year old prospect with a bum shoulder.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

The old guard didn't settle for anything with Plouffe. How did that work?

I'm fine with Falvey and Co. It may be a little premature to praise them for their lack of activity.

 

True. We can start grading them after their first trade, on their first trade. But still, with all the talk surrounding here, something is bound to happen

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That is pretty much the Twins stance as well. Though it's very unlikely they get him as a third piece. Dodgers won't want to give up 3 of their better pitching prospects IMo

 

That's fine.  3rd piece doesn't have to be a pitcher.. or it can be a lower ranked one with more upside.  I just think that De Leon + Alvarez isn't enough.  There's way too much risk there.  Neither of these guys are sure things...  Alvarez in particular.  He's effectively a slightly better than Lewis Thorpe type prospect pre-TJS.  That's not a bad spec, but certainly not a low risk prospect.