Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Of course the Twins also had 2+ starters with negative rWAR in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009.  In fact when they won 96 games in '06 the Twins had 4 starters that had negative rWAR.  I didn't bother going back any farther than that but I would assume it is a common occurrence. The Dodgers this past season had 5 starters post negative rWAR values.

In 2009 - I didn't bother researching the rest, the lowest starter had a bWAR of -0.2.

 

That's hardly comparable.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As Chief said above, I think you're overvaluing back of the rotation pitching. I also believe you're undervaluing Dozier's worth to the Twins. Just because he isn't going to lead us to the playoffs doesn't mean he is worthless.

 

No, it doesn't make him worthless, but it should reframe your perspective.  Whatever value Dozier has around the league is probably at it's peak.  Even in the worst case scenario and DeLeon is a bust, you're still talking about having a decent chance the move is a net gain.

 

If he succeeds it's a game changer.  Plus whatever else comes back in the deal.  

 

Hanging on to Dozier, paying out the rest of his deal, and enjoying whatever meaningless number of HRs he hits while we lose 90 games does nothing to get us to where we need to go.  And where we need to go will only be accomplished by adding more high upside arms.

 

I'm all ears on a better way to do that than trading Dozier right now.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Braves fan here- Still see us as a strong possibility as a trade partner. We have been linked to a lot of 2b/3b options recently.

 

Folks on this board are a little stuck on the Braves having Swanson and Albies. Sure, they might not both be ready this year, but you have an enviable middle infield in your near future. Do you think 2 years (unless you extend him) of Dozier fits in with the team plans?

 

The other thing here is that we don't really expect you to part with Newcomb. At least that's what another Braves fan has told us.

 

So we'd like a good, fair trade with the Braves that helped us rebuild our pitching staff. Just not sure what the Braves would be willing to offer.

 

Your thoughts?

[DaveW]

Is this in general or still in regards to the Dodgers?

Dodgers.

 

Braves, as my source and I both said were never "real" players to be honest

 

Doesn't make sense for them at this stage

[OklahomaBrave]

Folks on this board are a little stuck on the Braves having Swanson and Albies. Sure, they might not both be ready this year, but you have an enviable middle infield in your near future. Do you think 2 years (unless you extend him) of Dozier fits in with the team plans?

 

The other thing here is that we don't really expect you to part with Newcomb. At least that's what another Braves fan has told us.

 

So we'd like a good, fair trade with the Braves that helped us rebuild our pitching staff. Just not sure what the Braves would be willing to offer.

 

Your thoughts?

Thanks for the response! I suppose my prevailing thought is that if we trade for Dozier, it would be as a precursor to another move. I'm not certain I would advocate for this course of action, but it would not surprise me.

 

It's difficult for me to say what we would part with. We have tons of pitching prospects but I would think Albies would be used in a subsequent trade for an ace type. Myself, and many other Braves fans, aren't nearly as high on Newcomb as our other prospects. I personally like Fried, Anderson,Soroka,and Allard better.

 

I also am not

A huge fan of DeLeon so it's hard for it not to skew my thoughts on a potential package. I think Wisler or Blair would be a good second or third piece but I'm not sure how much else would be needed. Maybe Soroka,Wisler,and a third piece?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Thanks for the response! I suppose my prevailing thought is that if we trade for Dozier, it would be as a precursor to another move. I'm not certain I would advocate for this course of action, but it would not surprise me.

It's difficult for me to say what we would part with. We have tons of pitching prospects but I would think Albies would be used in a subsequent trade for an ace type. Myself, and many other Braves fans, aren't nearly as high on Newcomb as our other prospects. I personally like Fried, Anderson,Soroka,and Allard better.

I also am not
A huge fan of DeLeon so it's hard for it not to skew my thoughts on a potential package. I think Wisler or Blair would be a good second or third piece but I'm not sure how much else would be needed. Maybe Soroka,Wisler,and a third piece?

 I will say that I am not that high on Wisler. You, on the other hand, are not that high on Newcomb, but from our perspective you are ridiculously spoiled.

 

I am no expert on this but if you were talking to me and suggested Newcomb and Soroka and a young long shot (position or pitcher) I would be interested in talking,

 

EDIT: I'm trying to be civil here, but the truth is I want Allard.

[biggentleben]

 

Can you provide links to the lists claiming JDL is an elite prospect? My impression is that "elite" means top 5-10 players in the minor leagues. I have not seen a single source even suggesting that for De Leon. In fact some of the recent analysis (fangraphs for instance) suggest he might be a mid rotation starter.

 

I have him in my top 25 at CTTP - link provided earlier in the thread.

[biggentleben]

 

Never been much of a fan of Sickels, but a lot seem to be. Sickels, in late Sept of 2016, had Alvarez as the 18th ranked prospect in baseball (ranked 117th before 2016 season).  Some of the guys ranked ahead of him (Benintendi, Swanson) are no longer prospects.  They are in the majors for good already.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016

 

So De Leon (5th) and Alvarez both sit in the top 20 for Sickels.  Two years of Dozier for 12 years combined of them.  Yes please.  Too much?  Likely.  Those two PLUS another? Way too much? Likely.

 

BTW, our top guy, according to Sickels, is Gordon as the 40th best prospect.

 

Technically, Swanson and Benintendi will still be on prospect lists this winter as they have not lost their rookie eligibility.

[biggentleben]

 

To me a top 10 pitching prospect still isn't elite though. MLB currently has Tyler Jay a top 10 pitching prospect too and I certainly wouldn't consider him elite. This could just be a semantics about the word elite.

 

I guess my larger point is a top 10 prospect overall (regardless of position) has significantly more value because they turn out at a much higher rate and I thought that is what TyTY23 was implying.

 

Say what?!

 

I think you're misinterpreting numbers here...unless you're doing the stretch of going by their offseason list last year that ranked Jay as a top 10 left handed prospect, but still not a top 10 overall pitching prospect. Of course, MLB is out on an island on Jay compared to the rest of the world, basically, so there's that.

 

De Leon, in the same list you posted, was the #8 pitcher OVERALL, regardless of hand.

[jimmer]

 

Technically, Swanson and Benintendi will still be on prospect lists this winter as they have not lost their rookie eligibility.

I understand the technicality, but that doesn't change anything. When looking at Sickels list of prospects and talking about minor league prospects, two guys ranked ahead of Alvarez are full time major leaguers now.

 

And the overall point is, Alvarez is pretty high up the food chain for Sickels, for those who value his listings.

[biggentleben]

 

I understand the technicality, but that doesn't change anything. When looking at Sickels list of prospects and talking about minor league prospects, two guys ranked ahead of Alvarez are full time major leaguers now.

 

And the overall point is, Alvarez is pretty high up the food chain for Sickels, for those who value his listings.

 

Absolutely, just know how semantics can get overblown, so making sure of that.

 

I had Alvarez inside my top 10 based on what I heard around the league along with my own viewing. He's going to be very, very high on lists this offseason when all is said and done.

[CiabanItReal]

Oklahoma, IDK what your beef with Newcomb is, but I'm also skeptical of him as well.

 

I just have a hard time trusting a guy that walks that many hitters, it's one thing if it's happening at the lower levels, with a younger pitcher, and you can think that they'll work they're way out of it, but his control problems remind me of a giants prospect named Kyle Crick.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Technically, Swanson and Benintendi will still be on prospect lists this winter as they have not lost their rookie eligibility.

Yeah, but guys ahead of him like Gallo have already lost their rookie status, by May he should have moved up to like 15th due to graduation ahead of him.

 

Swanson needs 1 AB

Reyes needs 4ip

Glasnow needs 27ip

Benitendi needs like 25 AB's

Gallo is already over the threshold.
 

[AZTwin]

Dodgers can grab what they want but they got some never leaguers on their roster that might help them. Big win for them if that's the case otherwise I bet they lose value at midseason. Hopefully twins got a good return

[AlwaysinModeration]

Just so everyone is clear on this, the only rumors TD "endorses" are in article form written by Nick, Seth, John, or Parker.

 

We neither endorse nor promote community rumors.

What about that Jeremy guy?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

Man, I sure hope it does.  This is getting exhausting. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

Ok, good. Before Tuesday 7:45pm. Thanks for the reassuring update.

 

I would tend to believe the Twins have lost a decent amount of leverage since the initial 24 hours. If they agreed to the De Leon / Alvarez plus framework, there have been a multitude of reports an opinions offered, and almost none had that level / or said that would be too much. The Dodgers can certainly seem reasonable in holding to their line of only AAAA filler...or even waver on including Alvarez.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Thanks for the response! I suppose my prevailing thought is that if we trade for Dozier, it would be as a precursor to another move. I'm not certain I would advocate for this course of action, but it would not surprise me.

It's difficult for me to say what we would part with. We have tons of pitching prospects but I would think Albies would be used in a subsequent trade for an ace type. Myself, and many other Braves fans, aren't nearly as high on Newcomb as our other prospects. I personally like Fried, Anderson,Soroka,and Allard better.

I also am not
A huge fan of DeLeon so it's hard for it not to skew my thoughts on a potential package. I think Wisler or Blair would be a good second or third piece but I'm not sure how much else would be needed. Maybe Soroka,Wisler,and a third piece?

 

Welcome to the site.  I think those names (Wisler and Blair) have come up already. Not a bad 2nd piece, but I don't think this gets done without Allard and likely Newcomb.  Just my two cents.

[diehardtwinsfan]

One note on WAR after reading the last few pages I've missed.

 

10-14 WAR over 6 years is not greater than 8-12 WAR over 2.  It's just not.  If De Leon hits 12 WAR over a 6 year period, he was an OK pitcher for the Twins, not what we needed. Now granted it won't be a flat 2 WAR a year across that 6 years, but that still doesn't give me a lot of warm and fuzzies about a De Leon/Dozier straight up trade. And that is before you talk about risk.

 

LA has to add more... they have to... and not throw in types.  Someone asked me before what I'd take...  Here's a few combos (just assume De Leon is the main piece)

 

Alvarez, Stewart (you can sub pretty much anyone in Sickles 2017 list from 4-12 for Stewart)

 

If Alvarez is out..

 

Stewart, (one of the guys in that 4-7 range), Ruiz (might take Lux here as a sub).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Being a Twins fan is not all about winning vs. losing. Yeah I know, that is the object of the game...or is it? The Twins are similar to a family relationship to me. I feel connected to each player...some more so than others. However in looking at what makes certain players "favorites" has little to do with the team's won-lost record for the year. Do they play the game the right way? Do they go "all out" very play? Do they play a team game? Do they give back to the community and beyond? Do they exhibit good character traits? If the above are not true, I'd just shift my loyalty every year to the best team in the majors for that year. Listen, if I could pull for the old Washington Senators for 11 years before they moved to Minnesota, and if I could  remain loyal for all these years of winning and of losing...they I say I'm more interested in character and playing the right way and respecting the game of baseball,  than I am in the annual won-lost record. OK, Ok so I may be the only one...but this is honestly how I feel. Therefore I say do not trade Brian Dozier. He is all of the things that are important to me in a major league player on my favorite team for the last 63 years that I have been a fan of this franchise.

[TheLeviathan]

 

One note on WAR after reading the last few pages I've missed.

 

10-14 WAR over 6 years is not greater than 8-12 WAR over 2.  It's just not.  If De Leon hits 12 WAR over a 6 year period, he was an OK pitcher for the Twins, not what we needed. Now granted it won't be a flat 2 WAR a year across that 6 years, but that still doesn't give me a lot of warm and fuzzies about a De Leon/Dozier straight up trade. And that is before you talk about risk.

 

No one wants a DeLeon for Dozier swap.  The discussion about WAR is more to show just how useless Dozier is likely to be for this team and how garnering any significant contribution from a pitcher in the deal is likely to be a net win.

 

So the floor for this trade is very high and the upside is as well.  That's the kind of deal you need to find a way to make.  They need to add secondary pieces for sure, but the "keep Dozier" crowd lacks perspective on our situation and that line of argument was meant to show it.

[Doomtints]

 

 

 

10-14 WAR over 6 years is not greater than 8-12 WAR over 2.  It's just not. 

 

I'm surprised you feel the need to argue that point since everyone knows it to be true. But to put your mind at ease with some analogies, yes $50,000 made in one year is not the same as $50,000 made in 5 years. 200 strikeouts in one year is not the same as 200 strikeouts in 3 years. 5 gallons of gas used over 300 miles is not the same as 5 gallons of gas used over half a mile. 7 touchdowns in one game is not the same as 7 touchdowns in 12 games.

 

etc. etc. etc.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No one wants a DeLeon for Dozier swap.  The discussion about WAR is more to show just how useless Dozier is likely to be for this team and how garnering any significant contribution from a pitcher in the deal is likely to be a net win.

 

So the floor for this trade is very high and the upside is as well.  That's the kind of deal you need to find a way to make.  They need to add secondary pieces for sure, but the "keep Dozier" crowd lacks perspective on our situation and that line of argument was meant to show it.

 

That I agree, the trade needs to be made. I'm more in the place that says 'walk away if it's a bad trade.'

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm surprised you feel the need to argue that point since everyone knows it to be true. But to put your mind at ease with some analogies, yes $50,000 made in one year is not the same as $50,000 made in 5 years. 200 strikeouts in one year is not the same as 200 strikeouts in 3 years. 5 gallons of gas used over 300 miles is not the same as 5 gallons of gas used over half a mile. 7 touchdowns in one game is not the same as 7 touchdowns in 12 games.

 

etc. etc. etc.

 

When people are discussing a 14-15 WAR for De Leon being a net win, I feel it necessary to make that point    especially since that isn't even the floor of the deal. 

[jimmer]

The problem is, in here, there seems to be a huge disagreement about what Dozier is worth.  Seems that when/if a trade is made, some are going to say it was too little for Dozier when it could very well be a fair trade (or even an overpay).

 

Now, if there is no trade, some may just figure that the Dodgers weren't offering fair value (or more) and that may not be the case at all.  For example, if De Leon and Alvarez are on the table and the trade doesn't happen.

[AZTwin]

The problem is, in here, there seems to be a huge disagreement about what Dozier is worth. Seems that when/if a trade is made, some are going to say it was too little for Dozier when it could very well be a fair trade (or even an overpay).

 

Now, if there is no trade, some may just figure that the Dodgers weren't offering fair value (or more) and that may not be the case at all. For example, if De Leon and Alvarez are on the table and the trade doesn't happen.

We need more than two relief pitching projects

[TheLeviathan]

 

That I agree, the trade needs to be made. I'm more in the place that says 'walk away if it's a bad trade.'

 

Well, no one wants a "bad trade", but where we define that differs as jimmer pointed out.

 

I think there are some too far on the "keep Dozier" side that are overvaluing Dozier (especially relative to his ability to help the Twins win) and understating how badly we need to find upside pitching and how few our options are to do that.

[Doomtints]

 

When people are discussing a 14-15 WAR for De Leon being a net win, I feel it necessary to make that point    especially since that isn't even the floor of the deal. 

 

Well, I take responsibility for the conversation going that way. That certainly isn't what I said, but that's how people chose to respond. Sometimes the responses get louder than the original point. 

 

The safe bet is that Dozier's WAR is higher in 2017. After that there are no safe bets.

 

I can see Dozier being a consistent player for a few more years, but 40 HRs may have been a one time deal. I can see De Leon being an ace in 3 years, which would be after Dozier is gone from the Twins anyway. The Twins have a great replacement for Dozier, but they have no such Plan B for De Leon. If the Twins let Dozier go later, there is likely no future ace as the return. Which path should the Twins take?

 

Do the Twins spend the next two years with Dozier's production (and it not mattering much) or do the Twins turn to the future and use those two years to develop their pitching?

[jimmer]

 

We need more than two relief pitching projects

Good thing that neither Alvarez or De Leon are relief pitching prospects then.

[AZTwin]

Well, I take responsibility for the conversation going that way.

 

The safe bet is that Dozier's WAR is higher in 2017. After that there are no safe bets.

 

I can see Dozier being a consistent player for a few more years, but 40 HRs may have been a one time deal. I can see De Leon being an ace in 3 years, which would be after Dozier is gone from the Twins anyway. The Twins have a great replacement for Dozier, but they have no such Plan B for De Leon. If the Twins let Dozier go later, there is likely no future ace as the return. Which path should the Twins take?

 

Do the Twins spend the next two years with Dozier's production (and it not mattering much) or do the Twins turn to the future and use those two years to develop their pitching?

You can see Deleon become an ace? Can you be classified as an ace if you can't get over the 162 qualifying innings?