Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[USAFChief]

It would be a failure based on reasonable expectation, but it'd still be an overall net gain.

We should aim for higher, but I really think some of you underestimate how little good Dozier I'd for us until we get some damn pitching.

And I think you overestimate how.much of a net gain a below average starter is, simply because you have him for a number of years.

 

I agree we need pitching. I hope F/L prove to be resourceful enough to find it.

[drjim]

Key word is "if". Dozier is an established player with a track record. JDL has pitched 17 innings in the majors. The Twins would have to get at minimum one more player rated in top 15 to be worth the risk.

I agree. I think De Leon and filler is not nearly enough. That's what I meant by mitigating risk. That happens through additional prospects. I would not plan on De Leon being that.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

If DeLeon is a solid major league starter he'll more than return the value for the organization than retaining Dozier would.  You, and many others, are struggling to put into context how useless Dozier is likely to be for us in terms of competing.  Resigning him would be an almost certain disaster and the pitching doesn't look to be worthy of competing for at least a season if not much longer.  

 

So would I accept it 1:1?  No, there isn't enough to mitigate the risk there if DeLeon implodes, but a couple other solid pieces and I'm sold.  

I'm not sure I agree or disagree with this. My first reaction is no. But then I read the last phrase again. I guess it depends upon what you consider to be "solid pieces".

 

No one denies the Twins need solid starting pitching. No one denies the Dodgers need a 2B. Few deny that the Dodgers have starting pitching in abundance (as do other teams, including possibly Atlanta). 

 

Thus a trade may be likely. But just because the Dodgers offer X, Y and Z for Dozier does not mean the Twins will accept it. And if the Twins offer Dozier for W, X, Y and Z, it doesn't mean the Dodgers will accept it.

 

So what are you looking for in a trade for Dozier? He's an established, very good 2B, arguably better than any 2B free agent this year. He played a good defense (not elite, but good) but hit with significant power this year, including 42 home runs. 

 

To me, that's worth two near MLB-ready starting pitchers, and, depending on their quality, one or two other throw-ins. If it's a trade with the Dodgers, then it's De Leon, Stewart and two prospects. 

 

If the Dodgers and Twins have already agreed to De Leon and Alvarez (as Dave W has reported), I still need another MLB-ready arm (Alvarez is too far away from the Majors). De Leon, Alvarez and Stewart would do it for me. 

 

But I would not trade him for De Leon, and two A-ball players – no matter how solid they are. We need a better return.

 

So again, it depends on your definition of "solid pieces."

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Babying arms might be an organizational philosophy but it does mean the Twins have no idea if De Leon will be able to handle a starters workload over the course of a full season. There are plenty of pitchers not able to hold up to the rigors of pitching 200 innings. This has to be factored in.  Additionally there are legitimate concerns about what a "sore shoulder" means going forward. These things can't just be glossed over; they do have an impact on the trade return.

I agree.  Just don't agree with the analysis that JDL has been hurt a lot.  Just not the case.  Last year was the first time.  I mentioned in the Dozier to Dodgers in 24 hrs thread that JDL is dating a pro tennis player.  He had worked with her on his conditioning and the Dodgers actually felt that he lost too much weight last offseason which resulted in the slight drop in velocity.  The hiccup out of spring training is why he didn't hit 150 last year.  It was more about the sprained ankle than the shoulder.

[AZTwin]

I agree. Just don't agree with the analysis that JDL has been hurt a lot. Just not the case. Last year was the first time. I mentioned in the Dozier to Dodgers in 24 hrs thread that JDL is dating a pro tennis player. He had worked with her on his conditioning and the Dodgers actually felt that he lost too much weight last offseason which resulted in the slight drop in velocity. The hiccup out of spring training is why he didn't hit 150 last year. It was more about the sprained ankle than the shoulder.

My biggest concern is that he has never thrown over 110 innings in any given year in his career and already 24.5 years old. We have prospects much younger that are able to log more innings. Maybe he is a one trick pony and only a relief pitcher going forward

[DaveW]

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

[HawkeyeDodger]

It seems a very risky move to go into the season with Dozier and hope that they can top the Dodgers offer at the trading deadline. They would need Dozier to be playing well,  They would need a contender other than the Dodgers to need a 2B, and hope other quality 2B don't become available at the deadline too. Now if Dozier is hitting like he did the 2nd half of 2016 they shouldn't have a problem finding him a home. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Back of the rotation starters aren't that easy to find.

 

If they were, the Twins wouldn't have given hundreds of innings to negative WAR starters each season for the past several seasons.

 

Several negative WAR starters. Every. Single. Year.

 

This is gag-worthy but I just checked to be sure... These are the years where the Twins had at least three pitchers start five games or more and posted a negative bWAR:

 

2012

2013

2014

2016

 

Three pitchers. At least five games started. Every season.

 

Ish.

That's not really that outlandish.  You know what pitching rich team managed to do that as well?  The Dodgers in 2016, 2014, 2013.  Pitching is thin around the league.

[TheLeviathan]

And I think you overestimate how.much of a net gain a below average starter is, simply because you have him for a number of years.

I agree we need pitching. I hope F/L prove to be resourceful enough to find it.

I think Brock's post refutes that first paragraph.

 

Plus, this whole conversation assumes if DeLeon doesn't live up so we are talking worst case scenarios and you can still argue it's a net gain. If he becomes a high end starter it is a huge win.

 

I think it'd important to keep this framed realistically and prudently.

[gunnarthor]

So, assuming De Leon is part of the deal, what Dodger prospects are off limits?  Looking at this thread, it seems that Buehler, Sheffield, Alvarez, Bellinger, Lux, and Stewart would be too much for the Dodgers to part with.  Seeing that the Twins would want pitching back, what else can LA offer?  Looking at Sickel's list, it would be guys like De Jong or Sborz (who I actually kind of like but not as a second piece). 

 

So if that's the case, I don't see how a deal gets done.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Dave W: So any clues to the pieces?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

Why confident? Can you ask him if that is because he is confident Twins will cave and take AAAA as 3rd piece, or that the Dodgers will cave and offer some sort of lottery ticket (even if not necessarily of the exact type Twins want) as 3rd piece? Or does he just have a sense that both sides want to get it done and feels like something has to give?

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think Brock's post refutes that first paragraph.

Plus, this whole conversation assumes if DeLeon doesn't live up so we are talking worst case scenarios and you can still argue it's a net gain. If he becomes a high end starter it is a huge win.

I think it'd important to keep this framed realistically and prudently.

 

The worst-case scenario is that De Leon is ineffective or gets hurt, and basically provides zero value, ever. The chances of that are pretty high just by virtue of him being (1) a pitcher that (2) hasn't proven he can succeed in MLB. 

 

De Leon has maybe a ~25% chance of being a solid starter, at best. Then there's another 25% where he is an OK 5th starter or solid reliever, and the other 50% where he's the 11th or 12th guy on the staff, in AAA, or out of baseball.

 

I cannot understand the imperative to trade Dozier for that set of expectations. Yeah, it sucks if the Twins can't get a legit offer, but what can they do about it? 

 

If De Leon is a headliner but backed by other prospects, it's obviously a different story.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's not really that outlandish.  You know what pitching rich team managed to do that as well?  The Dodgers in 2016, 2014, 2013.  Pitching is thin around the league.

I knew I should have added a "magnitude of failure" qualifier to that list but decided I didn't want to look up the stats again.

 

Yes, many teams have negative WAR starters... They're often -0.2 or -0.4 WAR or something of that ilk.

 

The Twins had -1 or lower WAR pitchers and several of them over the past five years. It's not only that the Twins pitchers were below replacement level, they were waaaaaay below replacement level and continued to get starts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I went back and looked just for the hell of it.

 

In 2012, the Twins had an entire rotation (five guys) of starters who had a bWAR of -0.8 or lower and started 7 or more games. Nick Blackburn "topped" the list with an, I have to admit, ****ing amazing -2.1 bWAR.

 

*gags uncontrollably*

[OklahomaBrave]

Braves fan here- Still see us as a strong possibility as a trade partner. We have been linked to a lot of 2b/3b options recently.

[OklahomaBrave]

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

Is this in general or still in regards to the Dodgers?

[gunnarthor]

 

I knew I should have added a "magnitude of failure" qualifier to that list but decided I didn't want to look up the stats again.

 

Yes, many teams have negative WAR starters... They're often -0.2 or -0.4 WAR or something of that ilk.

 

The Twins had -1 or lower WAR pitchers and several of them over the past five years. It's not only that the Twins pitchers were below replacement level, they were waaaaaay below replacement level and continued to get starts.

Sure, Twins pitching has sucked for a bit now.  That's pretty normal with bad teams.  Obviously, if we move Dozier, we might be able to improve the rotation. But if we don't get an offer that helps the rotation, move on.

[TyTY23]

 

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

To be fair your source also said it was going to get done in 24 hours a month ago, EOW on Monday, and now 48 hours after the EOW. 

[ashbury]

To be fair your source also said it was going to get done in 24 hours a month ago, EOW on Monday, and now 48 hours after the EOW. 

Moderator's note: Everybody, a rehashing of the history of this poster and his rumor is not needed here. We know there have been false alarms. This might be one, too. TD isn't endorsing any particular rumor, to my knowledge at least. On the other hand, members are allowed to post, as long as it looks sincere and not just to stir up trouble. The Twins FO has also signaled that an end to this process is near. Let's be tolerant.

[drjim]

#InDavewetrust

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just so everyone is clear on this, the only rumors TD "endorses" are in article form written by Nick, Seth, John, or Parker.

 

We neither endorse nor promote community rumors.

[CiabanItReal]

 

My biggest concern is that he has never thrown over 110 innings in any given year in his career and already 24.5 years old. We have prospects much younger that are able to log more innings. Maybe he is a one trick pony and only a relief pitcher going forward

The quality of the innings is more important than the quantity.

 

Whats with these weird half's you do in regards to age?

[CiabanItReal]

 

I think Brock's post refutes that first paragraph.

Plus, this whole conversation assumes if DeLeon doesn't live up so we are talking worst case scenarios and you can still argue it's a net gain. If he becomes a high end starter it is a huge win.

I think it'd important to keep this framed realistically and prudently.

Lets say AZTwin greatest fear comes true and he can't handle a starters work load and ends up a reliever, depending on the quality of his innings that could still wind up a net gain, specifically if he ends up a high end reliever like Jansen or Miller.

 

In his 7 seasons with the dodgers Jansen was worth 12 rWAR, are we really going to act like the twins couldn't use that.

[specialiststeve]

Next 72 hours aught to be interesting. Hoping for Deleon, Alvarez and Puig we would likely have to pony up something extra.

[DodgerFan1234]

Dozier rumors. The only thing that wouldn't die in 2016

[DodgerFan1234]

Source texted: Confident deal gets done in next 72 hours.

I sure hope so. Our long national nightmare has gone on for far too long. If not I'm going to start suspecting some Baghdad Bob level trolling going on.

[Oxtung]

 

Back of the rotation starters aren't that easy to find.

 

If they were, the Twins wouldn't have given hundreds of innings to negative WAR starters each season for the past several seasons.

 

Several negative WAR starters. Every. Single. Year.

 

This is gag-worthy but I just checked to be sure... These are the years where the Twins had at least three pitchers start five games or more and posted a negative bWAR:

 

2012

2013

2014

2016

 

Three pitchers. At least five games started. Every season.

 

Ish.

 

Of course the Twins also had 2+ starters with negative rWAR in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009.  In fact when they won 96 games in '06 the Twins had 4 starters that had negative rWAR.  I didn't bother going back any farther than that but I would assume it is a common occurrence. The Dodgers this past season had 5 starters post negative rWAR values.

[Oxtung]

 

You mean the type of pitchers the Twins should be targeting as a 2nd piece has nothing to do with Dozier's value?

I'm not sure what you confused about. The current state of the Twins rotation has nothing to do with Dozier's trade value. A rotation that was 1st in baseball or 30th either way it doesn't matter to Dozier's value.

[Oxtung]

 

It would be a failure based on reasonable expectation, but it'd still be an overall net gain.

We should aim for higher, but I really think some of you underestimate how little good Dozier I'd for us until we get some damn pitching.

 

As Chief said above, I think you're overvaluing back of the rotation pitching. I also believe you're undervaluing Dozier's worth to the Twins. Just because he isn't going to lead us to the playoffs doesn't mean he is worthless.