Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[drjim]

 

I have Beuhler 3rd with De Leon 4th.  I expect really good things from Buehler.

 

I agree on good things for Buehler, would love to get him. For Alvarez, I just can't rate Low A pitchers that high, though I would certainly take him.

[nicksaviking]

 

Any pitcher that the Twins acquire don't need to be ready this year.  There's more work to be done.  A year or two would be perfect, IMO.

 

I agree, but I don't think the front office does. Most front offices put a much higher value on guys in AAA or with MLB experience than the pundits or fans do.

 

It's why I wouldn't be surprised if the men on both side of this trade actually value Stewart more than Alvarez even if nobody on the sidelines watching the show feels the same.

 

But to be fair, there's never any pressure on pundits and fans to 'win now'.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

No, Dozier is not the ONLY way the Twins can get quality starting pitching – but I believe his trade is the BEST way. I don't disagree that Calhoun is a good prospect – but it's kind of like going into the grocery store to get milk and walking out with a pound of bananas and no milk. The Twins need starting pitching, preferably 2 MLB-ready starting pitchers. The rotation is a mess. Adding a position player beyond that is fine; adding one as one of two prospects is not fine.

 

I'm not willing (and I bet the top Twins' brass agrees) to wait 1-3 years to get a quality rotation.  The new brass wasn't brought in to help the Twins win starting in 2020. They need the quality starting pitching NOW.  That will help not only now, but in the near future.

 

The bottom line: If the Twins go into spring training without Dozier, they should have two starting pitchers (from wherever they traded Dozier to) to plug into the rotation list. I'm not saying they have to have two in the 5-man rotation - but every team needs depth at starting pitching, The Twins don't have it. If other teams don't pony up and give two near-MLB-ready starters plus one or two prospects for Dozier then I'd rather have Dozier back. It's that simple.

 

But, hypothetically, if they were to get De Leon and Calhoun, they could still become a better rotation in a year or two with additions of Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, De Leon, and the #1 pick in the draft. They don't have nothing in the minor leagues. One more, trading Dozier, isn't going completely revamp the rotation. They want to acquire assets in any/all forms.

 

But yes, if I had to choose, I'd rather get Brock Stewart than Calhoun. But Calhoun is a top 100 prospect, so he also has value. Could trade him at some point too. Just saying.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Bit of stretch calling JDL a future #2 or #3.  The guy can't stay healthy.  He's only logged more than 100 innings ONCE in his minor league career.  De Jong is at best a #5, but more likely a RP.  Sheffield is more valuable than De Jong.  

He had one season with an injury.  Not a fair assessment.  I get having a concern over his shoulder, but saying he can't stay healthy isn't true.  The Dodgers baby their pitchers at the lower levels which is why his innings were low.  He was supposed to go closer to 150 last year, but the sprained ankle set him back out of the gates.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Well that offer would totally depend on how the Twins view Sheffield.  I don't think they were that high on him around draft time and I'm not sure he's done much since then.  I think he's a closer and neither De Jong or Rios are anything other than AAAA types at this point so they wouldn't make/break any deal.

 

Personally, I'd keep Dozier over that but if someone though Sheffield could start, they might take that deal.

http://www.truebluela.com/2017/1/5/14179398/jordan-sheffield-2017-dodgers-prospects

 

Here's a little more on Sheffield.  Fifteen is one of the lowest ratings that I've seen for him.  Usually around 8 or 9.  

[doscinco]

This thread is just repeating itself now. Both teams need a resolution for their fanbases' sanity, hopefully this weekend.

[DodgerFan1234]

Bit of stretch calling JDL a future #2 or #3. The guy can't stay healthy. He's only logged more than 100 innings ONCE in his minor league career. De Jong is at best a #5, but more likely a RP. Sheffield is more valuable than De Jong.

 

Saying JDL can't stay healthy is like calling Buxton a bust TBH. "But he's only had one good month!" Not fair and doesn't really look at the whole picture.

 

I guess personally if JDL & Alvarez are in a deal I'd say pass if I'm the Dodgers. Forget about a 3rd piece in that situation. Let me spin another way to look at this deal. Let's say Dave's deal falls apart in the end and the Dodgers end up getting foresythe for say JDL and what would have been the 3rd piece for the Twins, the Dodgers would in essence be getting Foresythe and Alvarez for JDL and the 3rd piece. Personally I take a decent (not as good as Dozier) and Alvarez for less than the Twins deal. 2nd is still plugged very well and you take a flyer on the top international talent from the 2015-2016 class

[Cory Engelhardt]

Saying JDL can't stay healthy is like calling Buxton a bust TBH. "But he's only had one good month!" Not fair and doesn't really look at the whole picture.

I guess personally if JDL & Alvarez are in a deal I'd say pass if I'm the Dodgers. Forget about a 3rd piece in that situation. Let me spin another way to look at this deal. Let's say Dave's deal falls apart in the end and the Dodgers end up getting foresythe for say JDL and what would have been the 3rd piece for the Twins, the Dodgers would in essence be getting Foresythe and Alvarez for JDL and the 3rd piece. Personally I take a decent (not as good as Dozier) and Alvarez for less than the Twins deal. 2nd is still plugged very well and you take a flyer on the top international talent from the 2015-2016 class

I can see that. But, do you really think Forsythe is going to be cheaper to acquire than Dozier? Especially for a team like the Rays who as of now are wanting to compete in 2017?

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

But, hypothetically, if they were to get De Leon and Calhoun, they could still become a better rotation in a year or two with additions of Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, De Leon, and the #1 pick in the draft. They don't have nothing in the minor leagues. One more, trading Dozier, isn't going completely revamp the rotation. They want to acquire assets in any/all forms.

 

But yes, if I had to choose, I'd rather get Brock Stewart than Calhoun. But Calhoun is a top 100 prospect, so he also has value. Could trade him at some point too. Just saying.

 

Respectfully, I think we're going to have to agree to disagree.  Adding one MLB-ready starter (De Leon) plus a position-player prospect is not enough for me. Yes, Gonsalves, Romero, Kohl Stewart, Jay and other prospects in the Twins system are going to help the rotation. I'm actually high on them, But we need a viable bridge to get to them. I don't see quality starters coming via free agency. That leaves a trade. Dozier is the most valuable trade chip we have. He's worth two starting pitchers and one or two prospects. If the Twins don't get that, I'm sorry, i'd rather keep Dozier.

 

The Dodgers need Dozier. The Twins need starting pitchers, which the Dodgers (and possibly other teams) have. It's a good match with LA. I just don't know if they can reach an agreement.

[nicksaviking]

 

He had one season with an injury.  Not a fair assessment.  I get having a concern over his shoulder, but saying he can't stay healthy isn't true.  The Dodgers baby their pitchers at the lower levels which is why his innings were low.  He was supposed to go closer to 150 last year, but the sprained ankle set him back out of the gates.  

 

With JDL I'm more concerned with the velocity being 91-92. If it was only down due to the season long grind then I don't have as much concern. Losing velocity at the age of 24 is pretty common though, guys tend to peak in their early to mid 20's. I do like the guy a lot but I would be a bit worried that he's a guy with an early and quick peak.

 

I can't imagine the Twins are overly interested in Sheffield though. Just about everyone who has bullpen suspicions in A ball finds themselves stuck there long before they reach the majors; it's not typically a concern that goes away, particularly when the concern is largely due to mechanics.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I have come around to thinking that Alvarez is off the table and the Dodgers are not parting with him. Alvarez has such a smooth and effortless delivery, like Mariano Rivera. Alvarez finished last season at low A but I bet he will finish this season holding his own in AA. I still think a trade could be made centering around De Leon and one other good pitcher.

 

Also, I think the 24 hour clock has started ticking, otherwise we wait until after caravan and Twins fest to start speculating again.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Any pitcher that the Twins acquire don't need to be ready this year.  There's more work to be done.  A year or two would be perfect, IMO.

 

I beg to differ here. I'm not against acquiring guys like the ones I suggested, but I do think the Twins need pitchers right now. The hitting core is here. The pitching... well it isn't.  In terms of pitchers on the roster that could be future contributors to the next winning team you have Berrios, May, and maybe Gibson...  None of these are sure things, that's not up for debate. 2017 needs to be a time where we have these guys in the rotation taking some lumps.

 

If we acquire a guy who doesn't sniff MLB until 2018 or later, he's taking lumps in 2018 or later when guys like Sano and Buxton are established.  By the time the pitching is ready, Sano is a free agent. That I don't think is good. The Twins need guys now. That's where De Leon and Stewart in particular fit the Twins' need. Yeah, I want more than that, but with those two in uniform, I'd have no problems trading Santana and Santiago for more prospects and rolling with Gibson, De Leon, Berrios, Stewart, and May opening day.  That leaves Mejia, Gonsalves, and maybe Duffey in AAA as depth (unless Duffey goes to the pen).  At least then you're seeing which pitching sticks, and if the hitting really steps forward, we can look at FA options for 2018 given how good the pitching FA class looks to be.

 

I don't think you can do that if we get pitching that won't show up until 2018 or later.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I beg to differ here. I'm not against acquiring guys like the ones I suggested, but I do think the Twins need pitchers right now. The hitting core is here. The pitching... well it isn't.  In terms of pitchers on the roster that could be future contributors to the next winning team you have Berrios, May, and maybe Gibson...  None of these are sure things, that's not up for debate. 2017 needs to be a time where we have these guys in the rotation taking some lumps.

 

If we acquire a guy who doesn't sniff MLB until 2018 or later, he's taking lumps in 2018 or later when guys like Sano and Buxton are established.  By the time the pitching is ready, Sano is a free agent. That I don't think is good. The Twins need guys now. That's where De Leon and Stewart in particular fit the Twins' need. Yeah, I want more than that, but with those two in uniform, I'd have no problems trading Santana and Santiago for more prospects and rolling with Gibson, De Leon, Berrios, Stewart, and May opening day.  That leaves Mejia, Gonsalves, and maybe Duffey in AAA as depth (unless Duffey goes to the pen).  At least then you're seeing which pitching sticks, and if the hitting really steps forward, we can look at FA options for 2018 given how good the pitching FA class looks to be.

 

I don't think you can do that if we get pitching that won't show up until 2018 or later.

I agree with most of this. I wouldn't mind trading Santiago for more pitching, but I'd hang onto Ervin Santana (Now Danny Santana I would make available...)

 

Barring other signings, my 2017 rotation would be Santana, De Leon, Gibson, Berrios and Stewart or May. Waiting in the wings would be Justin Haley (in the bullpen, but ready for spot-starts), May (or Stewart), Gonsalves and Duffey.  I think Gonsalves will be a great pitcher, but I suspect he will need another year – I hope I'm wrong about the latter!!

 

 

[biggentleben]

Hmmm, I'm seeing that my view on Dodgers guys differs as well here, but that's a whole other discussion!

[CiabanItReal]

 

Age matters. If your 25 or older with no meaningful MLB experience and 7 on depth chart then you are no longer a top prospect. You are more like a journeyman type. Still have value? Sure. Just nobody is fooling themselves thinking that they have a future ace or even number 2 on their hands

That's because of the organization he's in, not because of anything that's wrong with him, if he was in the marlins system or angels system etc etc he would be expected to break camp with the team, hell that probably includes the twins.

 

I guess if you got drafted out of high school or signed as a teenager from the Dominican and you've been in the minors for like 7-8 years, but that doesn't apply to either, and hell, being 25 doesn't apply to JDL yet either. 

 

So basically his value will drop purely based off narrative, completely irrelevant to how he performs?

[AZTwin]

That's because of the organization he's in, not because of anything that's wrong with him, if he was in the marlins system or angels system etc etc he would be expected to break camp with the team, hell that probably includes the twins.

 

I guess if you got drafted out of high school or signed as a teenager from the Dominican and you've been in the minors for like 7-8 years, but that doesn't apply to either, and hell, being 25 doesn't apply to JDL yet either.

 

So basically his value will drop purely based off narrative, completely irrelevant to how he performs?

Yes. If you aren't challenged you aren't improving. He'll plateau. If they're still in minors at mid season, they're going to lose a lot of value. Especially Stewart.

[CiabanItReal]

 

This has bothered me as well.

 

Kershaw, Hill, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood, and Maeda all are on the 40-man (I understand the injuries there). Then you also have Urias, Stripling, Stewart, De Leon, and De Jong on the 40-man, and four of them made starts last year.

 

They have more depth than any team in baseball, I would say (12 deep). Yeah, last year they needed some of it, but they are hardly lacking.

They had 16 pitchers make starts for them last year, and almost had more, they seem to be choosing caution.

Also, I think you forgot Ross Strippling.

 

This is great news. I had resigned myself to a deal around DeLeon, but I'm convinced he will be a bullpen guy. If we can get Albies and Wisler (my personal preference) and a lottery ticket, I do that over ANYTHING including DeLeon.

 

Really rooting for a Braves-Twins deal. Sorry Dodgers, you may have had your bluff called.

What's convinced you that he's a bull pen guy?

[doscinco]

Yes. If you aren't challenged you aren't improving. He'll plateau. If they're still in minors at mid season, they're going to lose a lot of value. Especially Stewart.

Jacob deGrom's rookie of the year season age: 26

Adam Wainwright's first full season age: 25

Corey Kluber's first full season age: 27

Carlos Carrasco's first 120+ IP season age: 27

Kyle Hendricks' first full season age: 25

Tanner Roarks' first full season age: 27

Curt Schilling's first full season age: 26

 

Should I continue?

[CiabanItReal]

 

The Braves have been involved since November. Other teams have fallen off, so now the Braves appear a more real possibility, that's all.

IDK we would have heard more about them by now, the front office wouldn't have been wasting time bringing up the Giants, Cards, and Angels if the braves were really that interested.

Looking at the Braves, I think a deal with them would have to start with Albies and Allard.

 

I don't see how Newcomb would be considered, but he would trump anything the Dodgers have put out there by quite a bit.

Personally I don't like Newcomb that much, guys who walk 71 batters in 140 innings scare me, he reminds me of Kyle Crick.

I do not like him better than deleon.

[gunnarthor]

 

Jacob deGrom's rookie of the year season age: 26
Adam Wainwright's first full season age: 25
Corey Kluber's first full season age: 27
Carlos Carrasco's first 120+ IP season age: 27
Kyle Hendricks' first full season age: 25
Tanner Roarks' first full season age: 27
Curt Schilling's first full season age: 26

Should I continue?

Those are exceptions but the original posters thoughts are correct.

[doscinco]

Those are exceptions but the original posters thoughts are correct.

Randy Johnson first full season: 25

Danny Salazar first 120+ IP season: 25

Roy Halladay first 130+ IP season: 25

Cliff Lee first full season: 25, first good season came a year later

JA Happ first full season: 26

Orel Hershiser first full season: 25

 

Should I continue?

[AZTwin]

Jacob deGrom's rookie of the year season age: 26

Adam Wainwright's first full season age: 25

Corey Kluber's first full season age: 27

Carlos Carrasco's first 120+ IP season age: 27

Kyle Hendricks' first full season age: 25

Tanner Roarks' first full season age: 27

Curt Schilling's first full season age: 26

 

Should I continue?

You can do outliers all day long. Fact is that it significantly reduces probability and value. No GM is going to value a player like a star if he has 0.0001% chance of becoming one.

[doscinco]

You can do outliers all day long. Fact is that it significantly reduces probability and value. No GM is going to value a player like a star if he has 0.0001% chance of becoming one.

Very doubtful you get a "star" for Dozier, just being realistic.

[CiabanItReal]

 

You can do outliers all day long. Fact is that it significantly reduces probability and value. No GM is going to value a player like a star if he has 0.0001% chance of becoming one.

The dodgers not having room for a guy gives him a .00001% chance of becoming a star?

In the case of Stewart, he wasn't expected to become a star, but if he's pitching well and going deep into games, and showing improvement on his slider, people aren't going to think less of him.

 

Yes. If you aren't challenged you aren't improving. He'll plateau. If they're still in minors at mid season, they're going to lose a lot of value. Especially Stewart.

They could be using the minor league innings to improve their stamina, or their secondary offerings, which would increase their value even if they aren't being "challenged" there are always things to work on.

[AZTwin]

Very doubtful you get a "star" for Dozier, just being realistic.

No player discussed (Deleon, Alvarez, Stewart, etc) have more than a 5-10% chance of becoming a star so let's not pretend they are. Dozier is already a top 25 position player in MLB

[markos]

 

I beg to differ here. I'm not against acquiring guys like the ones I suggested, but I do think the Twins need pitchers right now. The hitting core is here. The pitching... well it isn't.  In terms of pitchers on the roster that could be future contributors to the next winning team you have Berrios, May, and maybe Gibson...  None of these are sure things, that's not up for debate. 2017 needs to be a time where we have these guys in the rotation taking some lumps.

 

If we acquire a guy who doesn't sniff MLB until 2018 or later, he's taking lumps in 2018 or later when guys like Sano and Buxton are established.  By the time the pitching is ready, Sano is a free agent. That I don't think is good. The Twins need guys now. That's where De Leon and Stewart in particular fit the Twins' need. Yeah, I want more than that, but with those two in uniform, I'd have no problems trading Santana and Santiago for more prospects and rolling with Gibson, De Leon, Berrios, Stewart, and May opening day.  That leaves Mejia, Gonsalves, and maybe Duffey in AAA as depth (unless Duffey goes to the pen).  At least then you're seeing which pitching sticks, and if the hitting really steps forward, we can look at FA options for 2018 given how good the pitching FA class looks to be.

 

I don't think you can do that if we get pitching that won't show up until 2018 or later.

This is a key point. The clock is already ticking on the Twins next contention window, whether it feels like it or not. 2021 is the last season that the Twins are guaranteed to have Sano and Buxton. If you think they are going to be the core of the next great Twins team, then you have to be planning around that window.

 

That said, a guy like Alvarez can still contribute. First, if he reaches his ceiling, he is knocking down the doors of the majors in 2018, and potentially dominating in 2019. Second, even if he isn't quite ready, he could be an incredibly valuable trade chip circa 2018 if they decide they need to go get some pitching. 

[doscinco]

No player discussed (Deleon, Alvarez, Stewart, etc) have more than a 5-10% chance of becoming a star so let's not pretend they are. Dozier is already a top 25 position player in MLB

And that's my point. Not trying to be a dick, but no team is trading elite prospects for 2 years of Dozier. Those are reserved for Chris Sale types. Yoy can try to find a sucker like Arizona and get a Dasnby Swanson, but that's unlikely.

[AZTwin]

And that's my point. Not trying to be a dick, but no team is trading elite prospects for 2 years of Dozier. Those are reserved for Chris Sale types. Yoy can try to find a sucker like Arizona and get a Dasnby Swanson, but that's unlikely.

So we're in agreement then those 3 are reasonable return. No one said we are going for a star. Just guys with upside (and a lot of risk)

[doscinco]

It's tough to judge Alvarez at this stage. At this time next year he could be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball.

 

But yeah, that's a great return for Minnesota.

[markos]

 

No player discussed (Deleon, Alvarez, Stewart, etc) have more than a 5-10% chance of becoming a star so let's not pretend they are. Dozier is already a top 25 position player in MLB

But all three will be in the Twins organization in 2019 and beyond. Dozier won't be.