Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[gunnarthor]

I'd love Albies (obviously) but neither Blair or Wisler seem to be good fits for the Twins.  Low strike out numbers in the NL and lots of fly balls.  Of course, Levine and Falvey know more about pitchers than I do so maybe they know something I don't but both seem cost controlled back end types.

[drjim]

 

I'd love Albies (obviously) but neither Blair or Wisler seem to be good fits for the Twins.  Low strike out numbers in the NL and lots of fly balls.  Of course, Levine and Falvey know more about pitchers than I do so maybe they know something I don't but both seem cost controlled back end types.

 

Blair and Wisler were floated by MikeB, not from the Twins. I would doubt they would be a significant part of a trade.

 

I just don't buy the Braves giving up a lot for 2 years of Dozier at this time, doesn't make sense in their rebuild cycle. Brandon Phillips was a potential stopgap, not a heavy investment.

[Steve Lein]

 

Ok, this post seems to be going in a couple directions.

 

You've said before he is in his prime and with his consistent ISO increase and HR increase the player we saw this year is who he is (although it makes it sound like he's just going to keep getting better the way you've said it).  In this post you say there is no reason he can't be a 6 WAR player moving forward (I have no idea how far forward, but forward).If that's the case with Dozier, it pretty much makes him a top 10 position player in the majors. As you look around the league, is it your opinion he's one of the best 10 position players in baseball going forward?

 

Then you say he's AT LEAST a 4.8-5.2 WAR guy.  That's something like 20-25th best player.  Do you envision Dozier being a top 20-25 type player going forward?

 

A top 10 player?  A top 25 player? Something else?  He's averaged about 4 WAR over the last 4 years. A 4 WAR player is in the top 40 most of the time (or right about there) Is he in THAT range going forward into his 30s?

 

Per Fangraph's WAR he is the #15 most valuable position player since 2014. I would see him as maintaining that through his current contract, and likely a couple years past it.

[Steve Lein]

 

So it appears the Dodgers may value Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez and Buehler to the point they deem them untouchable. Four seems like a lot, but hey, that's their perogatuve I guess.

If all reports are accurate, De Leon is not untouchable and Stewart possibly not as well. But the rub is that the Dodgers don't want to give up both as they can contribute right now. So that basically makes for five untouchable guys which frankly doesn't sound very reasonable. I get the pain that comes with giving up prospects, but it looks to me like the Dodgers have to decide if they more value upside later or production now. If they can't decide, it's time for them to walk away and sit on their hands.

 

Lot of MLB execs have been saying the Dodgers are unreasonable with who they are willing or not willing to give up.

 

Those same articles say it served them well last year, but that still doesn't change the prior fact.

[Steve Lein]

 

When did Deleon's sore shoulder last season after pitching after a layoff for his ankle become a persistent history of shoulder problems?  I'm not suggesting a one for one trade, but this injury history has become greatly exaggerated  .  

 

I don't think it's his "injury history" per se, but more the fact he is already 24 years old and the most innings he's ever thrown in a season is 114. For being a starting pitcher, that is not even close to good.

[gunnarthor]

What if the Twins moved off of De Leon as the main piece and focused on something like Stewart and some of the younger arms that are a few years off - Buehler Sheffield?

[AZTwin]

What if the Twins moved off of De Leon as the main piece and focused on something like Stewart and some of the younger arms that are a few years off - Buehler Sheffield?

Off limits lol. Honestly I think a package around Bellinger and Alvarez with fillers like Stewart is probably fair. But yeah more thinking about it Deleon isn't that good of a prospect. At the trade deadline I bet his value is a lot lower, especially if it looks like he can't eat innings at least. He's at the age where it's either put up or shut up and he hasn't shown that he's ready to do that

[markos]

 

Does anyone know why Albies is thought so highly of? He's a tiny slap hitter and almost certainly won't develop power, he has some speed but doesn't have the biggest arm. It sounds like he can play SS but 2B might be his best bet. Is he only ranked high because the Braves pushed him so hard and he's a 19-year-old in AAA with a decent batting average?

 

I know I'm the only one who's in the dark, but what is it about this guy that everyone seems to love?

I think he is ranked high because most scouts/analysts agree that:

1) He can stick at short.

2) He will have enough power.

3) He has demonstrated very good contact and plate discipline skills at a very young age.

 

When talking about slap hitters who may or may not develop power, there is a big difference between a guy like Revere (~.050 ISO) and a guy like Span (~.100 ISO). I think most scouts think (hope?) Albies will fall in the latter category and hit enough doubles and triples to be an average or better hitter. If he is also an average or better shortstop, then that is a 3-4 WAR player, just like Span was for much of his career. 

 

That's my two cents. I would like Albies in a trade, coupled with one of Wisler/Blair and then one of their high-upside A-ball pitchers.

[Steve Lein]

 

Yet when I look at the roster and the transactions, I keep seeing the Dodgers buying pitchers for their rotation: obviously they've locked up Kershaw on a mega-contract, but then you have Ryu, Kazmir and McCarthy all signed through 2018 at various points for hefty contracts, and it hasn't slowed down, with Hill just signed through 2019 for a boatload more cash. I'm probably forgetting some.

....

All this is to say it seems like they have a surplus of pitching--especially since they can and have seemed to fill out their rotation with veteran signings. They can buy on free agency what other teams expect their prospects to become.

They can't buy a 2B like Dozier in free agency, though. So that is why they should pay a hefty price in pitching prospects to get him.

 

This has bothered me as well.

 

Kershaw, Hill, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, Wood, and Maeda all are on the 40-man (I understand the injuries there). Then you also have Urias, Stripling, Stewart, De Leon, and De Jong on the 40-man, and four of them made starts last year.

 

They have more depth than any team in baseball, I would say (12 deep). Yeah, last year they needed some of it, but they are hardly lacking.

[BK432]

This is great news. I had resigned myself to a deal around DeLeon, but I'm convinced he will be a bullpen guy. If we can get Albies and Wisler (my personal preference) and a lottery ticket, I do that over ANYTHING including DeLeon.

 

Really rooting for a Braves-Twins deal. Sorry Dodgers, you may have had your bluff called.

[jimmer]

 

Per Fangraph's WAR he is the #15 most valuable position player since 2014. I would see him as maintaining that through his current contract, and likely a couple years past it.

Yes, and his huge career year is a big part of why that's true.  From 2014-2015, he's 29th for position players.  From 2015-2016 he's 23rd.  From 2013-2016 he's 23rd.  

 

And, additionally, there are great players playing now that weren't in the league in 2014 (or barely) that don't show up ahead of Dozier in the 2014-2016 time frame due to having one less year in the league. For example, Correa, Lindor, Seager, etc.  You know, guys who were great prospects and instantly lived up to the hype(yeah, that CAN happen:-))

 

I personally see him as more of a top 20-30 guy myself before taking into account he hits 30 early this year (and we only have 2 years of control left) as some of these young guys who are already better haven't even reached their prime

 

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I've long thought the Braves as a strong potential landing spot because they're going to want to throw their fans a bone as they move into a new stadium. But any Braves trade STARTS with Ozzie Albies in my view and then you go from there.

 

Two years from now you'd have an infield of Nick Gordon (3B), Albies (SS), Jorge Polanco (2B) and Miguel Sano (1B).

 

Brian Dozier would be a superstar in Altanta, as far as being a fan-favorite type goes.

[Comrade Bork]

Was anyone looking at the Braves before MikeB said something? If the Dodgers set the market for Dozier at 1 top 50 guy, I have to believe other teams would be willing to pay that price for Dozier. I bet we see more clubs showing interest and Doziers final price tag will be a top 50 guy and a top 200 guy with something random thrown in.

 

And I hope it's not the Dodgers.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't LOVE any of the Braves' pitching prospects all that much, from my desk in Oregon....

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Does anyone know why Albies is thought so highly of? He's a tiny slap hitter and almost certainly won't develop power, he has some speed but doesn't have the biggest arm. It sounds like he can play SS but 2B might be his best bet. Is he only ranked high because the Braves pushed him so hard and he's a 19-year-old in AAA with a decent batting average?

 

I know I'm the only one who's in the dark, but what is it about this guy that everyone seems to love?

 

19 in AAA sure implies he could be pretty good.  He put up an .800+ OPS in AA though as a 19 year old before his promotion.  Yeah, not tons of power as it was mostly OBP, but at that age, it's still quite possible it develops.  Not sure the projections on him, but 10-20 as a major leaguer wouldn't be out of the question. I would think.  He wouldn't have an A- if that wasn't a real possibility.

 

I don't think the Braves would get much attention unless Kolby Allard was included.  A package around Allard and Sean Newcomb would have my attention.  Only real problem is that Newcomb will be starting in AAA and Allard in A+.  Not really ML ready now type guys.  I don't see a whole lot of major league ready arms in their system.  But they have more than enough guys to get it done. Not many teams can say they have 20 guys B- and above on John's scale.

[gunnarthor]

 

I would imagine the Twins would want a package around their minor league pitchers, not Wisler/Blair.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think he is ranked high because most scouts/analysts agree that:

1) He can stick at short.

2) He will have enough power.

3) He has demonstrated very good contact and plate discipline skills at a very young age.

 

When talking about slap hitters who may or may not develop power, there is a big difference between a guy like Revere (~.050 ISO) and a guy like Span (~.100 ISO). I think most scouts think (hope?) Albies will fall in the latter category and hit enough doubles and triples to be an average or better hitter. If he is also an average or better shortstop, then that is a 3-4 WAR player, just like Span was for much of his career. 

 

That's my two cents. I would like Albies in a trade, coupled with one of Wisler/Blair and then one of their high-upside A-ball pitchers.

 

Good stuff, I can get behind Albies, though I have next to no interest in Wisler or Blair. I'm done with guys who don't have the ability to even be league average at missing bats. I'd want some of the guys in the minors.

 

I've mentioned before though, I really have stopped trusting Braves pitching prospects. They are at nearly a 100% bust rate the last decade or so with Tehran thus far being the only exception though still under-performing expectations. They've had a ton of other hyped guys and they all have flamed out to this point. I think there's been a lot of injuries, but is that bad luck or improper use? I think there has also been a ton of over-hype. Seriously, why in the world were Wisler or Blair top 50 prospects let alone top 100? They couldn't miss bats in the minors and Wiser wasn't even that good at preventing runs. Atlanta seems to be extremely good at marketing their prospects to those that make lists.

[Steve Lein]

Looking at the Braves, I think a deal with them would have to start with Albies and Allard.

 

I don't see how Newcomb would be considered, but he would trump anything the Dodgers have put out there by quite a bit.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Looking at the Braves, I think a deal with them would have to start with Albies and Allard.

 

I don't see how Newcomb would be considered, but he would trump anything the Dodgers have put out there by quite a bit.

 

Are you saying Newcomb is too much?  Because a power lefty in AA that hits an occasional 97 and racks up the Ks is a pretty good prospect.  I wouldn't mind Albies, but given the org needs, if Newcomb and Allard were on the table with a couple of lotto tickets, I'd be very VERY interested. 

 

As for Wisler, he doesn't excite me.  He has some value though in that he can possibly out perform a guy like Santiago in 2017, but he's probably a 3 at best.

[biggentleben]

Holy cow, this is an interesting read. The team backed away from Jose Quintana when it was insisted to get Albies plus Newcomb. I don't see that happening whatsoever.

 

Wisler is younger than De Leon and has tremendous pedigree. He did not work well with McDowell, but the comp I put on him when the Braves acquired him was Brandon Webb when Wisler was on his best stuff.

 

Blair needs some work as the Diamondbacks royally messed him up in his last year, and he just couldn't get fixed last year, but the talent is certainly there. He'll be 25 coming into the year, so he's the oldest of the batch being discussed.

 

Albies is fun fodder, but his value right now is lower than it'd be due to the injury he suffered at the end of the year and the questions around that injury, so the team is quite unlikely to trade him unless he's valued as the top 10-15 prospect that he was consensus in the game before that injury. Some have backed away pretty strong on that ranking due to the freak nature of the injury and the location of it. I had some good discussions with medical people and baseball folks in and out of the Braves org before ranking him where I did in my top 125 prospects that came out this week.

 

Right now, two guys I've talked with from BA and one from BP told me that putting together their personal top 100 lists, they considered up to 15 Braves prospects. There are quite a few elite guys that could be paired to headline a deal, but there are also quite a few that are no longer prospect eligible that could lead a deal as well. There's some bit of discussion that the Braves may cash in on Travis Demeritte's big publicity and scouting reports from the AFL to flip him in a deal due to org depth up the middle.

[Steve Lein]

 

Are you saying Newcomb is too much?  Because a power lefty in AA that hits an occasional 97 and racks up the Ks is a pretty good prospect.  I wouldn't mind Albies, but given the org needs, if Newcomb and Allard were on the table with a couple of lotto tickets, I'd be very VERY interested. 

 

As for Wisler, he doesn't excite me.  He has some value though in that he can possibly out perform a guy like Santiago in 2017, but he's probably a 3 at best.

 

I'm saying I think he would be considered untouchable by the Braves.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Holy cow, this is an interesting read. The team backed away from Jose Quintana when it was insisted to get Albies plus Newcomb. I don't see that happening whatsoever.

 

Wisler is younger than De Leon and has tremendous pedigree. He did not work well with McDowell, but the comp I put on him when the Braves acquired him was Brandon Webb when Wisler was on his best stuff.

 

Blair needs some work as the Diamondbacks royally messed him up in his last year, and he just couldn't get fixed last year, but the talent is certainly there. He'll be 25 coming into the year, so he's the oldest of the batch being discussed.

 

Albies is fun fodder, but his value right now is lower than it'd be due to the injury he suffered at the end of the year and the questions around that injury, so the team is quite unlikely to trade him unless he's valued as the top 10-15 prospect that he was consensus in the game before that injury. Some have backed away pretty strong on that ranking due to the freak nature of the injury and the location of it. I had some good discussions with medical people and baseball folks in and out of the Braves org before ranking him where I did in my top 125 prospects that came out this week.

 

Right now, two guys I've talked with from BA and one from BP told me that putting together their personal top 100 lists, they considered up to 15 Braves prospects. There are quite a few elite guys that could be paired to headline a deal, but there are also quite a few that are no longer prospect eligible that could lead a deal as well. There's some bit of discussion that the Braves may cash in on Travis Demeritte's big publicity and scouting reports from the AFL to flip him in a deal due to org depth up the middle.

 

Links to your lists.....please.

[biggentleben]

 

Does anyone know why Albies is thought so highly of? He's a tiny slap hitter and almost certainly won't develop power, he has some speed but doesn't have the biggest arm. It sounds like he can play SS but 2B might be his best bet. Is he only ranked high because the Braves pushed him so hard and he's a 19-year-old in AAA with a decent batting average?

 

I know I'm the only one who's in the dark, but what is it about this guy that everyone seems to love?

 

Holy cow, I'm not sure where you got your scouting report, but that's not Albies at all.

 

He has a small frame. That's the one thing on the entire report there that's correct.

 

Albies has ridiculous range and a plus arm at short. He was in AAA at 19 last year and moved ahead of Dansby Swanson in the org as both were still playing short due to his ridiculous raw skills at short. He does, however, have a bit of Raffy Furcal to him, with the tendency to air mail throws or rush throws while Dansby is so ridiculously cool, calm, and collected. That's why the move to 2B was made - nothing to do with Albies' inability to play SS, but that they could move Swanson/Albies together up to Atlanta quicker in that combination.

 

Albies has tremendous bat speed and generates excellent power. He's the one guy I've ever heard the unicorn comp of Jose Altuve actually used on by a professional scout as he generates tremendous carry in his swing. I don't think there's 20 home runs there, but 30+ doubles, double digit triples, and double digit home runs is not a crazy thing to consider when he's at his peak.

 

He also has very good contact skills using all fields. He was the Southern League batting title this year in spite of being out of the league for a lot of the year and getting docked points for the at bats he missed.

 

People read the progression this year as him going to AAA and struggling to end the year, but that's not the truth at all. Albies and Swanson both started the year on absolute fire, were promoted before the end of April, Albies to AAA and Swanson to AA, and Albies reportedly was hazed mercilessly by the guys at AAA Gwinnett, a number of whom ended up released by the team in part for their behavior. He struggled out of the gate after the promotion, but he was hitting very well in AAA after the move to 2B in AAA when they moved him down to AA so they could play he and Swanson alongside each other as the prospective future middle infield in Atlanta for years to come. He would have received a September call up if not for a freak elbow fracture on a swing in the Southern League playoffs that ended his season.

[Steve Lein]

Well, Berardino followed up that post with this one: 

 

"Checked further on potential #Braves fit for Dozier and source w/direct knowledge insists match w/#mntwins would be a "long shot." "

 

(Edit: not sure why the link didn't post)

[Trueblue222]

I find it hard to believe that the Braves are going to trade some of their top prospects for Dozier when they are A couple of years away from contending themselves.

[biggentleben]

 

Links to your lists.....please.

 

They're the slide show variety, just to warn you!

 

1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

 

And, for reference in this discussion, I did a top 100 Braves prospects list in October. Here is the link to the list, and there are links on that page to the more in-depth reviews of each player.

[biggentleben]

 

Blair and Wisler were floated by MikeB, not from the Twins. I would doubt they would be a significant part of a trade.

 

I just don't buy the Braves giving up a lot for 2 years of Dozier at this time, doesn't make sense in their rebuild cycle. Brandon Phillips was a potential stopgap, not a heavy investment.

 

Phillips was also a deal from November that finally got reported this week. There's been no further discussion on him since, regardless of the fun things Bowden hears in his own head...

[doscinco]

The Braves would rather have Brandon Phillips than Brian Dozier

[biggentleben]

 

Was anyone looking at the Braves before MikeB said something? If the Dodgers set the market for Dozier at 1 top 50 guy, I have to believe other teams would be willing to pay that price for Dozier. I bet we see more clubs showing interest and Doziers final price tag will be a top 50 guy and a top 200 guy with something random thrown in.

And I hope it's not the Dodgers.

 

Yes, the Braves have been the last team mentioned about 10 times this offseason on Dozier. Not sure if they were getting play here, but there's been plenty of discussion on Braves forums as they've been discussed on MLBTR and by Braves beat writers as being involved throughout the winter.

[biggentleben]

 

This is great news. I had resigned myself to a deal around DeLeon, but I'm convinced he will be a bullpen guy. If we can get Albies and Wisler (my personal preference) and a lottery ticket, I do that over ANYTHING including DeLeon.

 

Really rooting for a Braves-Twins deal. Sorry Dodgers, you may have had your bluff called.

 

It would most likely be Wisler OR Albies headlining a deal, not both. I think Wisler gets drastically undersold by many unfamiliar with him, but he's LOVED in the baseball community and would have been a top 10 pitching prospect if he'd not have had stats that made things look crappy in the PCL. His peripherals were tons better, and just a few years later, we can look back and see a league adjusted ERA putting him at a fairly elite pitcher. He still was the #11 overall pitcher in BA's rankings that offseason.