Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[AZTwin]

Lol okay. You aren't getting dozier for scraps. If that's truly the case, then I can't see a deal getting done. So be it

[DaveW]

I also tend to think Dodger fans/independent bloggers are falling into the same trap we all do: Over-rating our own prospects.

I remember the mere suggestion that Berrios had the upside of a #2 instead of a #1 was met with a lot of resistance to say the least

DeLeon and Alvarez are good prospects no doubt, but DeLeon projects to be closer to a #3 then a #2/#1 and Alvarez is a lonnnnnnnng ways away and super raw. Good prospect? Like top 100? Maybe top 50? Yeah. elite prospect? nope.

[shs_59]

I like De Jong the RHP as a potential 3rd piece.

Dozier and Ervin Santana :

 

for Calhoun (big fan of his always loved that bat)

 

for De Leon  (paired with Berrios could be the next Javier Vazquez type of arm #3 or 4 starter)

 

for De Jong

 

and Yadier Alvarez  (only way i see us getting him as well, is including someone like an Ervin Santana)

 

NOT SURE IF DODGERS have any interest in Ervin Santana, but just a thought.

 

I don't see us getting Bellinger , unless we swap out one of those 2 aforementioned RHP pitchers 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I also tend to think Dodger fans/independent bloggers are falling into the same trap we all do: Over-rating our own prospects.

I remember the mere suggestion that Berrios had the upside of a #2 instead of a #1 was met with a lot of resistance to say the least

DeLeon and Alvarez are good prospects no doubt, but DeLeon projects to be closer to a #3 then a #2/#1 and Alvarez is a lonnnnnnnng ways away and super raw. Good prospect? Like top 100? Maybe top 50? Yeah. elite prospect? nope.

No truer words have been said.  Or typed.    

 

So many things have been said about DeLeon and Alvarez, it's really hard for me to tell what their prospects really are.  Same things were said about the upside for Berrios:  major-league ready.  And at the end of the season, Twins started changing his windup.  So:  NOT major-league ready.  Not yet, anyway. 

 

And there's the thing where, the Dodgers' have already agreed to include them in the package for Dozier:  as you have quoted from your sources. 

 

I am firmly on the side that says:  Trade Dozier.  While I think it's highly possible his HR total will drop with the Dodgers [new League, new pitchers and all]  Dozier has consistently raised his HR and RBI totals over the last 4 years.  With a highly desirable contract, I would be inclined to ask for more than DeLeon and Alvarez, too.  It's OK if DeLeon and Alvarez aren't 100% MLB ready.  Promising is what I'd be looking for.  There's enough of a starting staff right now to get the Twins through 2017 season.  With Berrios getting a 2nd year of experience, I'd at least expect [want, maybe....] DeLeon and Alvarez to be ready by 2018.  By that time, Buxton, Kepler and Sano should prove whether, or not, they are upside-headed MLB hitters and [2/3rd's of them] MLB on defense.

[mazeville]

 

I disagree. the Twins should be targeting two MLB or near-MLB starters for Dozier. Don't undersell him. He's a great asset!

 

I'd rather have one of DeLeon, who is MLB ready, and one person with legit ace potential in the lower minors than get another mediocre pitcher simply because he is MLB ready. We have enough mediocrity on this team.

[jimmer]

 

I'd rather have one of DeLeon, who is MLB ready, and one person with legit ace potential in the lower minors than get another mediocre pitcher simply because he is MLB ready. We have enough mediocrity on this team.

Bingo

[laloesch]

 

Lol okay. You aren't getting dozier for scraps. If that's truly the case, then I can't see a deal getting done. So be it

 

Yeah if the Tweets ring true they think the Twins "are getting greedy" demanding De Leon and Stewart plus one other. 

 

If that's what the Dodgers think (I have my doubts), just walk away from the deal and get ready for the season.  This is not going to get done.  The Twins shouldn't get bullied into giving away Dozier for practically nothing.  One starting pitching prospect (projected #3) and Stewart (think projects as a RP) is not going to get it done for the Twins.  That to me is not a good deal for the Twins. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Yeah if the Tweets ring true they think the Twins "are getting greedy" demanding De Leon and Stewart plus one other. 

 

If that's what the Dodgers think (I have my doubts), just walk away from the deal and get ready for the season.  This is not going to get done.  The Twins shouldn't get bullied into giving away Dozier for practically nothing.  One starting pitching prospect (projected #3) and Stewart (think projects as a RP) is not going to get it done for the Twins.  That to me is not a good deal for the Twins. 

 

I know some scouting reports have Stewart as a #4 or #5. I don't know if this is truly what he will be. He has an above average fastball and his best pitch is his changeup. Brandon Warne mentioned it too, but he has good swinging strike rates (over 10%) and his minor league numbers are off the charts.

 

Just saying, I think if De Leon and Stewart are both received in a trade, I wouldn't be disappointed. They are both in our rotation next year, and that is a good thing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I know some scouting reports have Stewart as a #4 or #5. I don't know if this is truly what he will be. He has an above average fastball and his best pitch is his changeup. Brandon Warne mentioned it too, but he has good swinging strike rates (over 10%) and his minor league numbers are off the charts.

 

Just saying, I think if De Leon and Stewart are both received in a trade, I wouldn't be disappointed. They are both in our rotation next year, and that is a good thing.

 

Yeah, 4/5 seems a bit low for Stewart. He's pitched like an 1/2 all though the minors, and while he may not be one, he gets plenty of swings and misses, more than enough to be an average to above major league pitcher.  Yeah, I know that minor league success doesn't always correlate to major league success, but it's also very true that guys that stick in the majors often tend to progress towards their minor league averages.  Stewart has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.06 ERA, 9.74K/9, and 2.11 BB/9 for his minor league career and has generally been younger than his league.  He also does a good job keeping the ball in the park, and that includes 9 starts in the PCL (yes, SSS I know).  He's not a mediocre add.  He's a pretty good bet to do what Santiago did last season (at least in terms of ERA) with a significantly better upside long term.  If De Leon, Alvarez, and Stewart were on the table.  I'd run with it.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Two things:

1. The Yankees have $31 million over the next 3 years committed to Starlin Castro. I don't think they are ready to give up on him, so I don't believe that they are seeking Dozier.

2. If I were the Dodgers, I'd consider Austin Barnes at 2B. The guy has raked in AA and AAA. He's already 26 years old. If they are ever going to find out what he can do in MLB it has to be now. Plus it gives them an emergency catcher on the field.

 

I don't think the Twins have a lot of suitors for Dozier.

I believe Dozier is a much better bet for the Dodgers at second base than any of their internal options, but they will probably win their division without him.

 

And with Dozier in our lineup we will have a 90+ loss team. Love the guy, but that's the truth.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Two things:

1. The Yankees have $31 million over the next 3 years committed to Starlin Castro. I don't think they are ready to give up on him, so I don't believe that they are seeking Dozier.

2. If I were the Dodgers, I'd consider Austin Barnes at 2B. The guy has raked in AA and AAA. He's already 26 years old. If they are ever going to find out what he can do in MLB it has to be now. Plus it gives them an emergency catcher on the field.

 

I don't think the Twins have a lot of suitors for Dozier.

I believe Dozier is a much better bet for the Dodgers at second base than any of their internal options, but they will probably win their division without him.

 

And with Dozier in our lineup we will have a 90+ loss team. Love the guy, but that's the truth.

 

What, so just quit and throw our hands up and not do anything? What are you saying?

[drivlikejehu]

I'm really not that blown away with the prospects being discussed in general . . . I think the Twins are correct to want several of them. The urgency to trade Dozier decreases if the current offer isn't very good, because new needs always crop up during the season. Players underachieve, get hurt, etc. 

[nicksaviking]

 

What, so just quit and throw our hands up and not do anything? What are you saying?

 

I think he's saying the Twins should take the Dodgers offer. Which doesn't sound like doing nothing to me.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm really not that blown away with the prospects being discussed in general . . . I think the Twins are correct to want several of them. The urgency to trade Dozier decreases if the current offer isn't very good, because new needs always crop up during the season. Players underachieve, get hurt, etc. 

 

I'd say that last line is particularly of concern regarding Dozier though. I think the chances that the return for Dozier goes up during the season are minimal while the chances that the return for him goes down is extremely high.

[doscinco]

I also tend to think Dodger fans/independent bloggers are falling into the same trap we all do: Over-rating our own prospects.

 

I remember the mere suggestion that Berrios had the upside of a #2 instead of a #1 was met with a lot of resistance to say the least

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are good prospects no doubt, but DeLeon projects to be closer to a #3 then a #2/#1 and Alvarez is a lonnnnnnnng ways away and super raw. Good prospect? Like top 100? Maybe top 50? Yeah. elite prospect? nope.

The system literally just produced like a 7 1/2 win SS in Seager, a 3+win CFer going forward, and a 19/20 year old that had a k per 9 over 10 in the majors.

 

And Alvarez has a ceiling just as high as Urias. It is fair for us to be protective of some of these prospects.

[Squirrel]

 

I'd say that last line is particularly of concern regarding Dozier though. I think the chances that the return for Dozier goes up during the season are minimal while the chances that the return for him goes down is extremely high.

That's part of the gamble. Knowing that his price could go down doesn't mean you trade him for less, though. At least I wouldn't. I'm not sure what the correct answer is, but I'll bet it's whatever ends up not happening.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

What, so just quit and throw our hands up and not do anything? What are you saying?

 

I can't really imagine how you'd have gotten that from my post.

 

There is a lot of worry that we will undervalue Dozier.

 

Overvaluing him does us no good, either.

[laloesch]

 

The system literally just produced like a 7 1/2 win SS in Seager, a 3+win CFer going forward, and a 19/20 year old that had a k per 9 over 10 in the majors.

And Alvarez has a ceiling just as high as Urias. It is fair for us to be protective of some of these prospects.

 

Alvarez has made 9 starts and thrown 39 innings in the Midwest league (A ball).  He has just barely started as a prospect and is MULTIPLE YEARS away from the majors if he makes it all.  Sorry to burst your bubble and no disrespect intended but he has proven NOTHING yet.    

[drjim]

 

I'm really not that blown away with the prospects being discussed in general . . . I think the Twins are correct to want several of them. The urgency to trade Dozier decreases if the current offer isn't very good, because new needs always crop up during the season. Players underachieve, get hurt, etc. 

 

I'm generally with you on this. I think they can make it work with some quantity, but I don't fault the Twins for holding out.

 

This is my own thought (not in response to you), but there is still a small chance the Twins could even compete in the Central in 2017. While not likely, there is a enough variance in the young guys that if things click they could surprise a little. That enters in the equation as well and doesn't demand that the Twins trade him for less than they think Dozier is worth.

[DaveW]

Dodgers are the only legit suitor for Dozier at this point.

Giants, Mets, Yankees would LOVE to have them, but they aren't going to give up fair value in a trade at this point.

It's the Dodgers or nothing at this point effectively. If it's nothing they can trade Dozier at a later date anyways.

[doscinco]

Alvarez has made 9 starts and thrown 39 innings in the Midwest league (A ball). He has just barely started as a prospect and is MULTIPLE YEARS away from the majors if he makes it all. Sorry to burst your bubble and no disrespect intended but he has proven NOTHING yet.

As a 20 year old (so age appropriate) who hits 100 + 2 plus off speed pitches, in his first year in the USA. He also was the #1 international prospect in the 2015-2016 signing period do there's pedigree. You guys need to put context when looking at a prospect stat line.

[DaveW]

 

The system literally just produced like a 7 1/2 win SS in Seager, a 3+win CFer going forward, and a 19/20 year old that had a k per 9 over 10 in the majors.

And Alvarez has a ceiling just as high as Urias. It is fair for us to be protective of some of these prospects.

Ceiling? Maybe, but Urias has a significantly higher chance of reaching that ceiling. Also Urias has a much higher floor.

[DodgerFan1234]

I post this because it is germane to Dozier, Alvarez, this trade and the Twins-Dodgers.

 

DodgersDigest is one of the best and most reputable team discussion pages.  Petrielllo, Moriyama, and Nozler are some of the best connected guys out there.  They broke Kershaw's extension, the Rich Hill trade, and other trades.  They also generally tell Dodger fans to shove it when sounding unintelligent.  

 

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/12/21/a-word-about-yadier-alvarez-and-these-brian-dozier-trade-rumors/

[mazeville]

Doogie seems to think, at least on 1500 ESPN, that it would be DeLeon + Stewart. And then the haggling is over the third piece or whatever.

 

Twins apparently demanding more than DeLeon and Stewart but the Dodgers think those two are enough.

 

Personally I think those two are enough, but have zero problem with the Twins holding out for a lottery ticket prospect.

[Han Joelo]

I'm pretty leery of all this.  It feels like the Dodgers are much like the Red Sox when it comes to prospect hyping.  I would imagine they have a smart guy from Harvard on their staff whose sole responsibility is to generate prospect trade chips.  De Leon feels like he has been groomed for the sole purpose of being used as trade bait.  I'm not denying the numbers, but its the underlying stuff I worry about.  Health, helium.

 

On the other hand, how was it ok for the Red Sox to trading Moncada, despite the "investment" they'd made in him, but the Dodger's can't trade Alvarez…because of the investment?  Anyway, this feels like some high stakes poker, and though I've been a Ryan defender in the past, I'm glad its Falvey and Levine sitting in the chair on this one.  The one-for-one Span trade looks terrible in hindsight, but the longer we wait, the more confident I am that the Twins will get the best return possible.

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

Doogie seems to think, at least on 1500 ESPN, that it would be DeLeon + Stewart. And then the haggling is over the third piece or whatever.

 

Twins apparently demanding more than DeLeon and Stewart but the Dodgers think those two are enough.

 

Personally I think those two are enough, but have zero problem with the Twins holding out for a lottery ticket prospect.

 

Falvey certainly has a better idea than me, but I really don't understand why they would have any interest in Stewart. He strikes me as a guy that is interchangeable with a whole bunch of guys they already have: Gibson, Duffey, Haley, Mejia, Santiago... That is to say, back-end starter candidates. And that's not even mentioning prospects at AA or AAA who could also fill the back-end in 2017 and beyond.

 

If those are the first two names, that's fine. But I absolutely would be holding out for a better third piece if that's what the Dodgers are offering, and it should be another good one, not a AAAA-type.

 

 

 

 

 

[nater79a]

 

I'd say that last line is particularly of concern regarding Dozier though. I think the chances that the return for Dozier goes up during the season are minimal while the chances that the return for him goes down is extremely high.

. 

This is what concerns me too. 

 

In mid-May of last season there were folks that wanted to send Dozier to AAA Rochester after his ice cold start.  If that happens again this year the Twins will be lucky to get a Sam Fuld type return for him.

 

Way too risky to hold onto into the '17 campaign.

[DaveW]

Falvey certainly has a better idea than me, but I really don't understand why they would have any interest in Stewart. He strikes me as a guy that is interchangeable with a whole bunch of guys they already have: Gibson, Duffey, Haley, Mejia, Santiago... That is to say, back-end starter candidates. And that's not even mentioning prospects at AA or AAA who could also fill the back-end in 2017 and beyond.

 

If those are the first two names, that's fine. But I absolutely would be holding out for a better third piece if that's what the Dodgers are offering, and it should be another good one, not a AAAA-type.

Yeah, Twins are not interested in Stewart to be piece 1B in the trade, they would be more then willing to take him as the third piece, but that is highly doubtful, unless the Dodgers blink all of a sudden!

 

It's not so much that DeLeon is the center piece it's that DeLeon AND Alvarez are the centerpieces and the rest needs to be figured out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've said before I like Stewart, but certainly not as a second piece. If he's the 3rd piece to De Leon and Alvarez, I take it.  If he's the second piece with Alvaraz not being included, I'm going elsewhere.

[DaveW]

I'm pretty leery of all this. It feels like the Dodgers are much like the Red Sox when it comes to prospect hyping. I would imagine they have a smart guy from Harvard on their staff whose sole responsibility is to generate prospect trade chips. De Leon feels like he has been groomed for the sole purpose of being used as trade bait. I'm not denying the numbers, but its the underlying stuff I worry about. Health, helium.

 

On the other hand, how was it ok for the Red Sox to trading Moncada, despite the "investment" they'd made in him, but the Dodger's can't trade Alvarez…because of the investment? Anyway, this feels like some high stakes poker, and though I've been a Ryan defender in the past, I'm glad its Falvey and Levine sitting in the chair on this one. The one-for-one Span trade looks terrible in hindsight, but the longer we wait, the more confident I am that the Twins will get the best return possible.

Yeah the 32 million they invested in him is a sunk cost at this point. It would be foolish for the dodgers to take that into some huge consideration. It's all about how they view their prospects and chances to help the team in the future.

 

Would someone invest 32 million as of today knowing what we now know in Alvarez? Doubtful IMO