Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[beckmt]

If the Dodgers trade us both De Leon and Steward they are giving both of their near MLB ready pitchers.  That is their depth.  They will not send both in the same deal for a very good not great player

[CiabanItReal]

 

S.F. and S.D. don't suppress HR's to dead pull LF. That's where Dozier hits 'em.

And yet S.F. leader in home runs last year hit.....14. This year their projected leader is presumed to be Parker with.....16. Dude I grew up in the bay, I've seen a ton of games in Oakland and S.F. the wind has a tendency to blow in from the water hard at a moments notice.

[Steve Lein]

 

With all due respect, you don't know the Dodgers. 

 

There is a reason Dozier was the 10th most valuable position player in baseball last year (per BRef - or 13th if you prefer fangraphs).

 

Going back to 2014, per fangraphs, he's been the 15th most valuable position player overall.

 

I somehow doubt the Dodgers have more than 1 or 2 position players who would be more valuable than a guy giving 4-5 WAR in a season, let alone 6. 

 

Justin Turner is the closest Dodgers comp. from 2014 to 2016 as far as WAR goes (13.9 for Dozier vs. 12.8 for Turner). He's not a bad comparison for what Dozier could add to the Dodgers lineup as far as offensive output as well, but again, Dozier plays an up the middle position. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually it's a horrible comp, because Frazier is 2 years older, has 1 year left that will be similar in cost to Dozier's 2 remaining years combined, and Frazier is coming off his worst full season while Dozier is coming off his best.

 

They are similar players in some respects, but not in terms of trade value.

But a year ago, when Frazier was actually traded, he was the same age as Dozier is now, with 2 years control remaining. That is certainly a better trade comp than the Sale and Eaton deals that keep getting trotted out. Also should be noted that the Dodgers kicked the tires on Frazier last winter and went a different direction.

 

Agreed that Frazier currently isn't a great comp.

[Oxtung]

Maybe they do feel the same way since they have not surrendered what the Twins have been asking for. Otherwise, this deal would have been made a month ago.

If they felt the same as you this deal would have been shot down within the first week.

[TyTY23]

 

If they felt the same as you this deal would have been shot down within the first week.

I have repeatedly mentioned that JDL, Stewart, and another mid-level prospect was fair, but I guess you have not been following along. 

[Oxtung]

You are arguing something completely different from my point. Delmon circa 2006 and Meyer circa 2014 were ranked much higher than Alvarez and Buehler right now. Delmon and Meyer would not have been "second pieces" in trades at those times, they would have been headliners.

 

Alvarez and Buehler, on the other hand, are ranked lower and capped at "second piece" status because of the recency of their signings and their inexperience. Whatever speculative potential is fueling those modest ratings right now will still be present in 6-12 months almost regardless of short term performance. They've got nowhere to go but up.

 

Kohl Stewart kinda proves my point -- he was so green in 2013 he wasn't going to be a trade headliner anyway, and I'd guess his value was more or less the same a year later even after a so-so full season debut (he dropped off BA's list, but his ranking actually improved on the MLB and BP lists). There would have been no real upside to dealing him after 2013 as compared to after 2014.

Ok if you don't like big names there are plenty of guys with potential who have never blossomed. Pinto, Benson, Goodrum, Rosario, Thorpe... a prospects value can always go down just as it might go up. Perhaps you are arguing that it could go up more than down, and I wouldn't disagree, but Buehler and Alvarezes value can still go down. A simple example is if one blows his arm out and needs surgery.

[DaveW]

 

With all due respect, you don't know the Dodgers. 

Name one player who had a higher WAR then Dozier on the Dodgers, name one player not named Seager who had a higher OPS+

[TyTY23]

 

There is a reason Dozier was the 10th most valuable position player in baseball last year (per BRef - or 13th if you prefer fangraphs).

 

Going back to 2014, per fangraphs, he's been the 15th most valuable position player overall.

 

I somehow doubt the Dodgers have more than 1 or 2 position players who would be more valuable than a guy giving 4-5 WAR in a season, let alone 6. 

 

Justin Turner is the closest Dodgers comp. from 2014 to 2016 as far as WAR goes (13.9 for Dozier vs. 12.8 for Turner). He's not a bad comparison for what Dozier could add to the Dodgers lineup as far as offensive output as well, but again, Dozier plays an up the middle position. 

As someone already mentioned Pederson is a good comp. too. Grandal is not a bad 2way player either. 

[Oxtung]

I have repeatedly mentioned that JDL, Stewart, and another mid-level prospect was fair, but I guess you have not been following along.

 

Certainly it is hard to keep track of everyone's ideas of what is fair with this many contributors to the thread. If, as you stated previously, you truly believe that the Dodgers are a lock to make the playoffs with or without Dozier than why would you give up anything for him?

[TyTY23]

 

Name one player who had a higher WAR then Dozier on the Dodgers, name one player not named Seager who had a higher OPS+

Many of the Dodger players are young and are gaining experience. Even Dozier took years to hit his stride. 

 

Last year is already gone. Much the same as Dozier can regress, many of the young Dodger players can progress. Its just part of the game. 

[DaveW]

 

Dozier isn't a better hitter than Justin Turner. 

Actually he is, he has posted a better OWar then him 2 of the past 3 years, many more home runs, and yes durability does count for a lot as well. In fact Turner has been on a steady decline the last two seasons, and is going to be 32, while Dozier is going to be 29 opening day. Dozier is still in his peak, Turner is entering his decline phase (and actually is already in it IMO)

[DaveW]

 

There is a reason Dozier was the 10th most valuable position player in baseball last year (per BRef - or 13th if you prefer fangraphs).

 

Going back to 2014, per fangraphs, he's been the 15th most valuable position player overall.

 

I somehow doubt the Dodgers have more than 1 or 2 position players who would be more valuable than a guy giving 4-5 WAR in a season, let alone 6. 

 

Justin Turner is the closest Dodgers comp. from 2014 to 2016 as far as WAR goes (13.9 for Dozier vs. 12.8 for Turner). He's not a bad comparison for what Dozier could add to the Dodgers lineup as far as offensive output as well, but again, Dozier plays an up the middle position. 

Also Turner has been declining and is a couple years older than Dozier.

[doscinco]

Name one player who had a higher WAR then Dozier on the Dodgers, name one player not named Seager who had a higher OPS+

WAR is simply not everything. If we are including pitchers, Dozier would be the 5th or 6th most important Dodgers player behind Kershaw, Jansen, Turner, Seager, and possibility Grandal

[DaveW]

 

Many of the Dodger players are young and are gaining experience. Even Dozier took years to hit his stride. 

 

Last year is already gone. Much the same as Dozier can regress, many of the young Dodger players can progress. Its just part of the game. 

I keep hearing how Dozier is going to regress, even though he is hitting his prime baseball years.

I mean I guess guys like Pederson can progress, that's certainly possible, but I'd be willing to wager a healthy amount of money that Dozier produces a higher WAR then ANYONE (position players) on the Dodgers not named Seager.

[DaveW]

 

WAR is simply not everything. If we are including pitchers, Dozier would be the 5th or 6th most important Dodgers player behind Kershaw, Jansen, Turner, Seager, and possibility Grandal

Notice how I said position player.

I respectfully disagree with Turner and Grandal. Dozier doubled up Grandal each of the last 3 years in WAR I believe.

[doscinco]

Notice how I said position player.

 

I respectfully disagree with Turner and Grandal. Dozier doubled up Grandal each of the last 3 years in WAR.

fWAR doesn't account for pitch framing in which Grandal is elite in.

 

WAR is also a counting stat. The reason Dozier has a slightly higher WAR than Turner over the last year or 3 years is because he's had more ABs. I guess being durable is a skill to a degree but it does not make him better. Turner wasn't even a full time starter 3 years ago and he's still only a run behind over that time period.

 

And again, WAR isn't the end all be all.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Certainly it is hard to keep track of everyone's ideas of what is fair with this many contributors to the thread. If, as you stated previously, you truly believe that the Dodgers are a lock to make the playoffs with or without Dozier than why would you give up anything for him?

Your trading to get him for the playoffs, not really for the regular season.

[CiabanItReal]

 

But a year ago, when Frazier was actually traded, he was the same age as Dozier is now, with 2 years control remaining. That is certainly a better trade comp than the Sale and Eaton deals that keep getting trotted out. Also should be noted that the Dodgers kicked the tires on Frazier last winter and went a different direction.

Agreed that Frazier currently isn't a great comp.

But he dose serve as a good warning for what the twins could be in for if they decide to hold on to Dozier. If you look at their last 3 or 4 years(which neutralize an out lire season), they have extremely similar production.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ok if you don't like big names there are plenty of guys with potential who have never blossomed. Pinto, Benson, Goodrum, Rosario, Thorpe... a prospects value can always go down just as it might go up. Perhaps you are arguing that it could go up more than down, and I wouldn't disagree, but Buehler and Alvarezes value can still go down. A simple example is if one blows his arm out and needs surgery.

Again, you are completely missing my point. Obviously prospect values can go down.

 

But I am talking about the specific circumstances of well-regarded amateurs who are just starting their pro careers like Alvarez and Buehler. They have some value due to their potential, but their values start relatively low due to inexperience. That potential/inexperience combination is unlikely to change in the short term -- they pretty much have a baseline of their current modest value for the next year or two, barring a catastrophic event.

 

Odds are, either Alvarez or Buehler can be the second piece in a good trade package for the next year, almost regardless of performance. Alvarez might even hold that value through TJ surgery, much like Buehler has done. There isn't much upside for the Dodgers to include either as second pieces right now.

 

That is one reason why you generally don't see recent amateur signings/draftees packaged in trades.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Also Turner has been declining and is a couple years older than Dozier.

I wouldn't say Turner has been declining.  He came off of an offseason knee surgery that led to a very slow start.  Remove the first 6 weeks and look at his numbers.  Turner is clutch too.  WAR has it's place and for the most part it does a good job, but as much as everyone wants to narrow a player down to one number, it doesn't do it for me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Actually he is, he has posted a better OWar then him 2 of the past 3 years,

oWAR includes the positional adjustment. If you want to compare hitting only, better to use Rbat. Turner easily beat Dozier in that measure in 2014-2015. (Of course it is a counting stat too, which could be a consideration.)

[drjim]

Again, you are completely missing my point. Obviously prospect values can go down.

 

But I am talking about the specific circumstances of well-regarded amateurs who are just starting their pro careers like Alvarez and Buehler. They have some value due to their potential, but their values start relatively low due to inexperience. That potential/inexperience combination is unlikely to change in the short term -- they pretty much have a baseline of their current modest value for the next year or two, barring a catastrophic event.

 

Odds are, either Alvarez or Buehler can be the second piece in a good trade package for the next year, almost regardless of performance. Alvarez might even hold that value through TJ surgery, much like Buehler has done. There isn't much upside for the Dodgers to include either as second pieces right now.

 

That is one reason why you generally don't see recent amateur signings/draftees packaged in trades.

They generally aren't traded because value for players that far away isn't as high, especially for pitchers.

 

Certainly teams would like to hold those assets, but they also don't move the needle in trades as much as the upside might suggest. Makes me think Alvarez is more available than his ranking might suggest.

[rossrarelytalks]

Hey there. Dodger fan here. Boy, this is the trade rumor that just never ends. So here's my $.02 from a Dodger perspective (and one who is seriously trying to be fair-minded): Dodgers will never do Bellinger or Alvarez in a Dozier trade. I am also very skeptical about Buehler also -- I believe the team is very, very high on him. Anybody else feels like fair game to me. So I would say De Leon, plus somebody like Stewart/Sheffield/Calhoun (or possibly Alex Verdugo, who is also very good and close to the majors, and I'd swallow hard to include him, but hey -- Dozier's a good player!), and maybe one other lesser piece (but with some real upside -- AJ Alexy? -- he just got drafted -- young and a risk, but could be good). If fans from both sides are kind of annoyed, it should be about fair. I'd hate to lose De Leon AND Stewart or Sheffield, but we need to give you talent for talent -- especially proven MLB talent. For me Bellinger, Alvarez, and Buelher are all too good to go in this trade. We'll see what happens.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They generally aren't traded because value for players that far away isn't as high, especially for pitchers.

 

Certainly teams would like to hold those assets, but they also don't move the needle in trades as much as the upside might suggest. Makes me think Alvarez is more available than his ranking might suggest.

Well, inexperienced, further away -- however you frame it, their immediate values are low.

 

In the first year or two of their career, a new top draftee or international signing is going to get valued more like a Brock Stewart as a baseline. Not a headliner, more like a 2nd or even 3rd complementary piece.

 

That doesn't mean they are available though. Faced with that decision, teams would usually rather include the Stewart instead and hold onto the new guy, whose value is unlikely to drop much from that baseline in the near future but could rise quickly.

[markos]

 

Notice how I said position player.

I respectfully disagree with Turner and Grandal. Dozier doubled up Grandal each of the last 3 years in WAR I believe.

If you use Baseball Prospectus (which includes framing), Grandal was a 6.8 WAR player last year.

[drjim]

Well, inexperienced, further away -- however you frame it, their immediate values are low.

 

In the first year or two of their career, a new top draftee or international signing is going to get valued more like a Brock Stewart as a baseline. Not a headliner, more like a 2nd or even 3rd complementary piece.

 

That doesn't mean they are available though. Faced with that decision, teams would usually rather include the Stewart instead and hold onto the new guy, whose value is unlikely to drop much from that baseline in the near future but could rise quickly.

That's fair. But I'm skeptical that the Dodgers would include Stewart with De Leon because that harms their immediate depth.

 

But that second piece has to come from somewhere if the Twins are going to do it.

[DocBauer]

It's fine to not be convinced that his 2016 isn't a sign of what's to come. I think everyone in the world thinks that way.

 

Comparing Dozier to other qualified 2B from 2013-2015 (so not including his insane year)

 

4th in games played

3rd in PA

1st in HR

2nd in runs

5th in RBI

5th in SB

3rd in BB%

1st in ISO

22nd in BA

16th in OBP

5th in SLG

6th in WAR

 

That's a top 5-7 2B in all of baseball in my eyes. Add in the insane year and it likely gets even better. 2016 shouldn't be expected as "this is absolutely going to happen" but you also can't ignore what he's done the three years before that. He's underrated.

Man, I read this...not even including 2016...and it makes me hate trading him all the more, even if it's that should probably be done for the sake if the franchise.

 

ANY player has regression potential, of course. And almost all players have streaks. But to look at these numbers, then factor in 2016, then realize he will only be 29 when the season starts...boy...sure seems to me that this a very, very good player that I dare call great.

 

The majority of 3 pitcher trades listed on these pages sure seem fair to me.

[DocBauer]

The longer this drags on, the closer we get to spring training, the more I play with possible lineups fir 2017, the more comfortable and happy I am to keep BD, add a quality bullpen arm, hopefully a 4th OF, and cross my fingers on Hughes, bounce back from Gibson and development from Berrios and May.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's fair. But I'm skeptical that the Dodgers would include Stewart with De Leon because that harms their immediate depth.

 

But that second piece has to come from somewhere if the Twins are going to do it.

Yup. I was speaking generically. De Leon and Stewart are their top two pitching reinforcements for 2017 so I can understand the reluctance. If that's the case, it seems odd that no one in the media mentions Stewart specifically, though -- Alvarez, Buehler, and Bellinger get many specific mentions. Berardino reported the Twins interest in Stewart a while ago, but there's really been no mention of him since.

 

And if they are reluctant to send Stewart away at the same time as De Leon, I wonder what guys they are willing to include. Verdugo, Calhoun, Sheffield, others? If they still had those 3 guys they gave up for Hill and Reddick, perhaps the deal would be done already.