Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TheLeviathan]

 

if he was a consistent 6 war player, dropping to a 3 WAR, that would be a huge drop, but he isnt a consistent 6 WAR guy nor should he be expected to be in the future.

 

I don't disagree, but the drop in value from expecting 6 to 3 is rather huge.  So if the Dodgers (reasonably so) are expecting 3, that is a sizable drop from what he produced last year.

[gunnarthor]

Another writer suggesting that the Dodgers are just offering a 1:1 swap.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes that's what TyTY said also and I agreed. I was just showing this trying to find it from a neutral party. Also FWIW it's really hard to just make a prediction of a trade when it's just an idea and get the players right. He's not trying to predict trades, he's just throwing out ideas. Nobody is actually taking it seriously like it's a trade that's going to happen.

Well, there are analysts who look closer and at least try to peg values accurately accurately according to the market.  Dave Cameron has been wrong plenty, but I'll be darned if he didn't analyze Chris Sale's value back in July and perfectly peg the return as Mocada plus Kopech.

Throwing out ideas without any real research, understanding, or track record isn't really worth much (and I know because I've thrown out plenty of such ideas ).

[jimmer]

Bob Nightengale is the same guy who just recently said Piazza and Bagwell had been suspended for PEDs during their careers. In fact, he said Piazza had been suspended the most times in MLB history for PEDs.

[gunnarthor]

 

Bob Nightengale is the same guy who said Piazza and Bagwell had been suspended for PEDs. In fact, he said Piazza had been suspended the most times in MLB history for PEDs.

I'm not sure that means he's wrong here.  Most reporters - all reporters - have been wrong.  Of the proposed deals we've seen floated around by professional media types have been suggesting the Dodgers are asking for a 1:1 swap.  That would help explain why no trade has happened yet.

[DaveW]

 

if he was a consistent 6 war player, dropping to a 3 WAR, that would be a huge drop, but he isnt a consistent 6 WAR guy nor should he be expected to be in the future.

He nearly had a 5 WAR two years ago and is just now entering his peak. It's pretty obvious that his 2nd half struggles and early struggles this season were an anomaly and a lot was due to injury.

[DaveW]

Nightengale is significantly wrong more than he is right. And in the case of the suspensions that never happened he has been proven a fraud time and time again.

Nightengale is a joke IMO and one of the worst "reporters" out there. But then again he works for a publication that barely does any real journalism.

[DaveW]

Would just like to point out this is now by far the 2nd most viewed thread in Twins Daily (Twins forum) history. Great job keeping on point everyone! Combing this with the first thread we now have given Twins Daily over a quarter million views on this scoop/topic/news alone!

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm not sure that means he's wrong here.  Most reporters - all reporters - have been wrong.  Of the proposed deals we've seen floated around by professional media types have been suggesting the Dodgers are asking for a 1:1 swap.  That would help explain why no trade has happened yet.

They can keep reporting it, but I don't believe it. If it's truly a 1:1 swap, the negotiations wouldn't be lasting this long. 

[jimmer]

They can keep reporting it, but I don't believe it. If it's truly a 1:1 swap, the negotiations wouldn't be lasting this long.

IMO, you are 100% correct. If the Dodgers have all along been saying a 1:1 DeLeon for Dozier, our FO would have stopped long ago. There are at least two pieces coming back from the Dodgers if this happens.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Another writer suggesting that the Dodgers are just offering a 1:1 swap.

Again, that doesn't seem to be the suggestion.  I bet Nightengale is referring to the Twins wanting "more" from the group of De Leon, Alvarez, Bellinger, and Buehler, just like Heyman and Neal were doing.

 

I don't know if anyone has provided information about the availability of Stewart, Calhoun, Sheffield, etc.

[AZTwin]

Another writer suggesting that the Dodgers are just offering a 1:1 swap.

 

https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/817063331202678785

lol if that's the case, no deal is getting done

[Taildragger8791]

 

Again, that doesn't seem to be the suggestion.  I bet Nightengale is referring to the Twins wanting "more" from the group of De Leon, Alvarez, Bellinger, and Buehler, just like Heyman and Neal were doing.

 

I don't know if anyone has provided information about the availability of Stewart, Calhoun, Sheffield, etc.

 

In this particular case, I think he's saying pretty explicitly that De Leon is the only significant piece in the deal. His language is a little more exact than the likely misconstrued comments from LEN III's article (I think it was LEN?).

[Taildragger8791]

 

He nearly had a 5 WAR two years ago and is just now entering his peak. It's pretty obvious that his 2nd half struggles and early struggles this season were an anomaly and a lot was due to injury.

 

What injury caused him to slump for nearly a full calendar year? From what I recall he was pretty healthy over much of that span. He's always been a streaky hitter, usually the streaks were just shorter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In this particular case, I think he's saying pretty explicitly that De Leon is the only significant piece in the deal. His language is a little more exact than the likely misconstrued comments from LEN III's article (I think it was LEN?).

Pretty explicitly?  It's a tweet with no new information. Heck, his source is probably LEN III or Heyman, there is no new information here.

 

No one in the media has commented at all on the availability of Stewart, Calhoun, Sheffield, etc.  I get that they're less significant than De Leon, Alvarez, Bellinger, and Buehler, but I wouldn't call them "insignificant" 2nd or 3rd pieces in trade.

[TyTY23]

 

Maybe if Dozier's 2016 was luck driven I could see this, but it wasn't. His ISO has improved for 4 straight years now, the power is real and not a fluke, the majority of his home runs were absolute bombs that would be clear the fences in pretty much every ball park in baseball, he is still in the prime of his career and 28-32 is when a players power typically hits it's peak as well.

He additionally is a + defender at 2B and a ++ runner on the base paths, you are looking at a guy who should at the very least give you 30 HR and close to 20 SB. That's pretty freaking good.

If he continues to hit like he did after his slow start in 2016, then you are looking at a guy who is knocking on the door for 50 HR next year.

I'm sure the Dodgers aren't trying to trade for Dozier because he could potentially hit 50hrs at DS. 

[Twins33]

 

What injury caused him to slump for nearly a full calendar year? From what I recall he was pretty healthy over much of that span. He's always been a streaky hitter, usually the streaks were just shorter.

Torn right labrum in 2015.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-day-at-camp-dozier-believes-his-hip-problems-are-past/370211861/

[TyTY23]

 

The Dodgers may have paid a ton of money and given up a lot in future intl signings etc for Alvarez, but let's not pretend that they would suddenly prefer to trade Urias or Bellinger over him for that reason.

It has everything to do with current value.

Only because they won't trade Urias or Bellinger doesn't mean they have to trade Alvarez or even Buehler. Why would you trade a top pitching prospect/s for a luxury piece.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Only because they won't trade Urias or Bellinger doesn't mean they have to trade Alvarez or even Buehler. Why would you trade a top pitching prospect/s for a luxury piece.  

 

By that logic, no very good to great team would ever trade a top pitching prospect? Is that what you are arguing? I'm just trying to understand here...

[TyTY23]

 

I have no idea if the Twins will get Alvarez but I'm not sure the cost of obtaining Alvarez is that relevant.  He wasn't the Dodger's biggest international signing that year - Hector Olivera was.  And the Dodgers traded Olivera in the Mat Latos trade. 

Wrong, Alvarez was. Because of Alvarez's age he fell under the international penalties. Olivera because of his age was not. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

I wonder why the idea that Dozier is going to significantly regress seems so obvious to so many. It appears that it is based on the 42 home runs. Therefore Dozier would not be that helpful to the Dodgers.

 

Dozier had a higher WAR than any Dodger last year.

Over the last 3 years Dozier's 14.1 WAR is higher than any Dodger position player over the same time period.

 

Even if he doesn't match his output from last year he is still a significant addition for the Dodgers.

 

However, if the Dodgers are going to the World Series without his help then why is this alleged discussion even taking place?

 

Dozier's value is not based on the fact that he went to the All-Star game. It is based on the fact that he is a very good player trending upward.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Torn right labrum in 2015.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-day-at-camp-dozier-believes-his-hip-problems-are-past/370211861/

Weird, he came into the season 110% and feeling like he was 16 years old. Then promptly hit the mendoza line for the first 2 months of the season. 

[Twins33]

 

Weird, he came into the season 110% and feeling like he was 16 years old. Then promptly hit the mendoza line for the first 2 months of the season. 

Yeah, I laughed at that. I know second half of 2015 all I kept hearing every single game is how he was playing through an injury...and he was.

 

This year I heard nothing, so either he didn't say it and/or it didn't leak to the media or he was actually healthy and just bad.

[TyTY23]

 

Dozier hit 21 home runs at Target Field, and 21 on the road last year. Yeah, he's not going to hit 20 in Dodger Stadium, but how many right-handed hitters did for the Dodgers last year? The year before? The year before that? 2013? 2012?

 

The answer is none. 

 

And you do realize what other stadiums are in the NL west division, right?

Yes, the Dodgers play vs. the Giants and the Padres, two ballparks that are the toughest to hit hrs in. Those two ballparks have the fewest hrs hit there since 2010. 

[TyTY23]

 

It's pretty clear the Dodgers FO doesn't feel the same as you otherwise these trade talks would have gone something like this:

Falvey: Hello?
Friedman: Hey I'm just checking in to see what you'd want for Dozier.
Falvey: Well I'm not sure exactly from your system but I'd be interested in 3 top 100 prospects with the headliner being a MLB ready pitcher.
Friedman: Well it was nice to talk to you, good luck with your rebuild.

Maybe they do feel the same way since they have not surrendered what the Twins have been asking for. Otherwise, this deal would have been made a month ago.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Weird, he came into the season 110% and feeling like he was 16 years old. Then promptly hit the mendoza line for the first 2 months of the season. 

"Feeling like he was 16 years old" actually might explain his awkward play.

[TyTY23]

 

Would just like to point out this is now by far the 2nd most viewed thread in Twins Daily (Twins forum) history. Great job keeping on point everyone! Combing this with the first thread we now have given Twins Daily over a quarter million views on this scoop/topic/news alone!

Maybe because the Twins and the Dodgers have let it drag out for a month now. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Yeah, but they basically turned that around and not only rented Latos like you mentioned, but they also got  Alex Wood, Luis Avilan, and Jose Peraza (the latter of whom they flipped for Montas, who in turn got flipped for Hill and Reddick at the deadline).

 

They got great value for moving Olivera early.

And they may have found out quickly that Olivera had serious character issues.

[TyTY23]

 

By that logic, no very good to great team would ever trade a top pitching prospect? Is that what you are arguing? I'm just trying to understand here..

I meant, why would the Dodgers pay a premium for a player that they technically don't need in order to be competitive. I would gladly trade top prospects if we were trading for a top player that is crucial to our success. Don't get me wrong I think that Dozier is a really good player but not enough to give up multiple top pitching prospects for. Also, the market for Dozier is nonexistent, so why would I bid against myself and give up my top pitching prospects. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I wonder why the idea that Dozier is going to significantly regress seems so obvious to so many. It appears that it is based on the 42 home runs. Therefore Dozier would not be that helpful to the Dodgers.

 

Dozier had a higher WAR than any Dodger last year.

Over the last 3 years Dozier's 14.1 WAR is higher than any Dodger position player over the same time period.

 

Even if he doesn't match his output from last year he is still a significant addition for the Dodgers.

 

However, if the Dodgers are going to the World Series without his help then why is this alleged discussion even taking place?

 

Dozier's value is not based on the fact that he went to the All-Star game. It is based on the fact that he is a very good player trending upward.

 

It seems as though it as just as much fun to trash Dozier... and I don't get that. He's a pretty darn good player, and he will most definitely be an upgrade in LA. The question is what he's worth. He's worth than De Leon, that's for sure.