Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[darin617]

 

And the whitesox can't find a trade partner for Todd Frazier.

 

I would rather sign Trevor Plouffe for like $2-3M and save the prospects and save around $8M or so at the same time.

[DaveW]

 

don't know if you have answered this somewhere, but what is your opinion of Alvarez (or at least of the videos discussion and scouting reports you have seen and read).

I think Alvarez is a very intriguing low level prospect, he throws hard and "looks" the part and has a huge ceiling. I'd rank him somewhere between 30 and 50th in all of baseball.

With that said, I pretty much said the same thing about Kohl Stewart when he was drafted as well (without throwing as hard), I think when it comes to guys who are 3+ years away, especially pitchers it's very wise to keep expectations somewhat in check. The reality is that even if Alvarez only becomes a #3 type or a strong RP he still ends up as a real solid player. Banking on him to become the franchises first ace in a decade is setting yourself up for disappointment. 

If he was in AA/AAA I could see those expectations, but not when he is this raw and this far away. Too many things can happen.

[CiabanItReal]

 

No, it's what Doogie reported though, and the Angels shot it down almost instantly, hence the spin.

Yeah, I thought that was weird, Geez the twins are starting to look desperate if this is a real strategy of theirs.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

I think Alvarez is a very intriguing low level prospect, he throws hard and "looks" the part and has a huge ceiling. I'd rank him somewhere between 30 and 50th in all of baseball.

With that said, I pretty much said the same thing about Kohl Stewart when he was drafted as well (without throwing as hard), I think when it comes to guys who are 3+ years away, especially pitchers it's very wise to keep expectations somewhat in check. The reality is that even if Alvarez only becomes a #3 type or a strong RP he still ends up as a real solid player. Banking on him to become the franchises first ace in a decade is setting yourself up for disappointment. 

If he was in AA/AAA I could see those expectations, but not when he is this raw and this far away. Too many things can happen.

I totally feel this.

In a Q&A Mayo mentioned that he had him at 51 on his current list, with the caveat that he could be much higher by mid season.

[DaveW]

I think people are getting too hung up on fangraphs lists vs bpro lists vs BA lists vs MLB lists/rankings etc

It's important to keep in mind, that while the writers on those sites are very talented/knowledgeable, the opinions that matter are the lead scouts and front office people who are employed by the specific MLB teams. 

Objectively JDL and Alvarez are very intriguing prospects, but neither are elite at this point in time (i.e. consensus top ten prospects in all of baseball) JDL to me is like Berrios with a decent amount of lower upside (#3 is his upside tbh) and Alvarez to me is like a Berrios with a higher upside but a significantly larger chance to bust out or end up in the pen.

Anyone who thinks that is some preposterous deal for a player who could have 12 WAR over the next two seasons on a team friendly contract hasn't been watching baseball for that long IMO. It wouldn't end up going down as some huge overpay like some have claimed, it would go down initially as a pretty fair deal.

 

[DaveW]

 

I totally feel this.

In a Q&A Mayo mentioned that he had him at 51 on his current list, with the caveat that he could be much higher by mid season.

Yeah when it comes to Alvarez I wouldn't call someone ridiculous if they had him rated 35, or if they had him rated at 65 to be honest.

There is a reason why the Dodgers have offered him up to the Twins (According to my source), after-all. He is a long ways away from being considered anything close to a can't miss guy.

[TyTY23]

 

I think Alvarez is a very intriguing low level prospect, he throws hard and "looks" the part and has a huge ceiling. I'd rank him somewhere between 30 and 50th in all of baseball.

With that said, I pretty much said the same thing about Kohl Stewart when he was drafted as well (without throwing as hard), I think when it comes to guys who are 3+ years away, especially pitchers it's very wise to keep expectations somewhat in check. The reality is that even if Alvarez only becomes a #3 type or a strong RP he still ends up as a real solid player. Banking on him to become the franchises first ace in a decade is setting yourself up for disappointment. 

If he was in AA/AAA I could see those expectations, but not when he is this raw and this far away. Too many things can happen.

However with Alvarez is more that just "stuff" and "potential." The Dodgers forfeited signing top international players for 2 years and forfeited the right to bid for Moncada to net Alvarez. I really doubt they trade him after just a little over a year after signing him. 

[DaveW]

 

However with Alvarez is more that just "stuff" and "potential." The Dodgers forfeited signing top international players for 2 years and forfeited the right to bid for Moncada to net Alvarez. I really doubt they trade him after just a little over a year after signing him. 

I keep reading this argument and honestly I don't get it. Yes, the Dodgers couldn't get Moncada...neither could nearly every other team.

If the Dodgers were a small market team I could see why they wouldn't want to give up Alvarez a year later, but they aren't they are a large market team with unlimited money. Alvarez is simply one of many many assets they have, and if he can bring back the missing link to bring the Dodgers a world series contending team? They most certainly will do that.

Alvarez in a best case scenario wouldnt be able to help the major league team until 2019 or so. Do you think the Dodgers at this stage are worried about that and worried about their ability to replace him by then?

[TyTY23]

How can they replace Alvarez if they cannot sign anyone for 2 years. Money has nothing to do with it.

 

And, are you saying that Dozier is the "missing link" to a championship?

[Rhino and Compass]

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2017/01/03/gleeman-and-the-geek-290-final-offers/

 

Interesting take from a Twins fan/blogger on Twitter.  I listened to their podcast while I was working tonight.  Not sure what the opinion is of this guy among Twins fans.  I do tend to agree with his take on his twitter page that some are highly underrating Deleon's value.  I've never heard of Deleon having a 3/4 ceiling.  It's been 2/3 from just about all scouting services/prospect reports.

I should have said I didn't necessarily endorse the opinion, but perhaps the Nunez trade is why Twins fans eyes are so wide when looking at Dozier's value? A lame duck GM traded essentially a flash in the pan for a legitimate candidate to join the rotation -- albeit at the back end -- next year. 

 

I'll freely admit that I don't know much about prospects, save for the fact that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. 

 

 

 

 

[TyTY23]

 

I should have said I didn't necessarily endorse the opinion, but perhaps the Nunez trade is why Twins fans eyes are so wide when looking at Dozier's value? A lame duck GM traded essentially a flash in the pan for a legitimate candidate to join the rotation -- albeit at the back end -- next year. 

 

I'll freely admit that I don't know much about prospects, save for the fact that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. 

Just as there's no such thing as a player being the "missing link" to a championship. We can also very much say that the multiple prospects that the Dodgers are giving up can also be the "missing links". 

[AZTwin]

However with Alvarez is more that just "stuff" and "potential." The Dodgers forfeited signing top international players for 2 years and forfeited the right to bid for Moncada to net Alvarez. I really doubt they trade him after just a little over a year after signing him.

Sunk cost

[TyTY23]

 

Sunk cost

based on what? oh yeah, your knowledgable bloggers from that "other" site. 

 

For a team that has been called "stingy" with their prospects and have preached player development since Kasten took over, why would they forfeit 2 years of signing prospects?

[AZTwin]

based on what? oh yeah, your knowledgable bloggers from that "other" site.

 

For a team that has been called "stingy" with their prospects and have preached player development since Kasten took over, why would they forfeit 2 years of signing prospects?

No. Based on literally the definition of sunk cost. And they did it so they could trade for an all star like Dozier

[Oxtung]

I really enjoy seeing national writers opinions on trade ideas. That way there is no bias either way. Here is one from hardballscoop

http://www.scout.com/mlb/rumors/story/1742642-mlb-trade-ideas-week-1

De Leon+Calhoun+Buehler for Dozier

Seems good for both sides to me

Personally I think this is the most probable framework for a trade. De Leon with one other top 100 player plus a high upside arm that is years away yet. Then you haggle over if a flier 4th piece is needed and who the extra arm and top 100 player is.

 

For me personally I would do De Leon, Verdugo and Buehler. If it has to be Calhoun then I need a 4th piece like K. Ruiz or Lux. Alternatively the 4th piece could be someone closer to MLB ready like Toles or Oaks.

[DaveW]

 

How can they replace Alvarez if they cannot sign anyone for 2 years. Money has nothing to do with it.

 

And, are you saying that Dozier is the "missing link" to a championship?

They can replace Alvarez in 2019 easily, they have unlimited funds to sign whatever FA they want, and they can always spend on intl FA in a couple years as well.

If Dozier puts up the numbers he did last year this year? Yes, the Dodgers are a significantly better team and have a much better shot to win a title.

[DaveW]

 

Just as there's no such thing as a player being the "missing link" to a championship. We can also very much say that the multiple prospects that the Dodgers are giving up can also be the "missing links". 

JDL and Alvarez don't help the 2017 Dodgers win games, unless they are traded.

2018 onward? Different discussion, but the Dodgers clearly want to WIN NOW.

[TyTY23]

 

They can replace Alvarez in 2019 easily, they have unlimited funds to sign whatever FA they want, and they can always spend on intl FA in a couple years as well.

If Dozier puts up the numbers he did last year this year? Yes, the Dodgers are a significantly better team and have a much better shot to win a title.

And you think Dozier can repeat those numbers at Dodger stadium? I hope the Dodger brass know he can't. 

[nicksaviking]

However with Alvarez is more that just "stuff" and "potential." The Dodgers forfeited signing top international players for 2 years and forfeited the right to bid for Moncada to net Alvarez. I really doubt they trade him after just a little over a year after signing him.

 

They don't get their draft pools back if Alvarez stays either, they're just gone. Alvarez is just another commodity now, the means by which he was acquired would only matter to the sentimental.

[TyTY23]

 

They can replace Alvarez in 2019 easily, they have unlimited funds to sign whatever FA they want, and they can always spend on intl FA in a couple years as well.

If Dozier puts up the numbers he did last year this year? Yes, the Dodgers are a significantly better team and have a much better shot to win a title.

For a team that has refused to sign some free agents because they didn't want to forfeit their first round pick for one year? I doubt it.  

[TyTY23]

 

JDL and Alvarez don't help the 2017 Dodgers win games, unless they are traded.

2018 onward? Different discussion, but the Dodgers clearly want to WIN NOW.

You're right about Alvarez not helping them this year but not JDL. 

[AZTwin]

And you think Dozier can repeat those numbers at Dodger stadium? I hope the Dodger brass know he can't.

With the rocket pads in az and Colorado he very well may

[TyTY23]

 

And you think Dozier can repeat those numbers at Dodger stadium? I hope the Dodger brass know he can't. [/quote

With the rocket pads in az and Colorado he very well may

You know he needs to play half of his games at DS. 

[AZTwin]

You know he needs to play half of his games at DS.

He hit 21 of his 42 home runs at home last year. Even let's say it got cut drastically down to 15 for dodger stadium, he's still 35+. But then consider this, he's also in the same division as the two most home run friendly parks in the majors. Two of the least homerun friendly parks too. All while al central is pretty average. Dodger stadium is a pitcher friendly park but it's actually above average as far as home run goes. It's probably a wash tbh

[nater79a]

 

Lol yeah. It was a joke. I would give Dozier, buxton, Tyler Jay and Jorge for trout lol

 

Ha! Yeah, I know. Was just having fun with it.

[CiabanItReal]

 

I think people are getting too hung up on fangraphs lists vs bpro lists vs BA lists vs MLB lists/rankings etc

It's important to keep in mind, that while the writers on those sites are very talented/knowledgeable, the opinions that matter are the lead scouts and front office people who are employed by the specific MLB teams. 

Objectively JDL and Alvarez are very intriguing prospects, but neither are elite at this point in time (i.e. consensus top ten prospects in all of baseball) JDL to me is like Berrios with a decent amount of lower upside (#3 is his upside tbh) and Alvarez to me is like a Berrios with a higher upside but a significantly larger chance to bust out or end up in the pen.

Anyone who thinks that is some preposterous deal for a player who could have 12 WAR over the next two seasons on a team friendly contract hasn't been watching baseball for that long IMO. It wouldn't end up going down as some huge overpay like some have claimed, it would go down initially as a pretty fair deal.

 

He also could be worth 6 war over the next two seasons, (which is still good, but not elite) or anything in between.

[CiabanItReal]

 

They can replace Alvarez in 2019 easily, they have unlimited funds to sign whatever FA they want, and they can always spend on intl FA in a couple years as well.

If Dozier puts up the numbers he did last year this year? Yes, the Dodgers are a significantly better team and have a much better shot to win a title.

The new rules prevent them from doing what they did before though, in fact being a big market team means they have less to spend on amateurs than small market teams.

So if he produces another career year, that seems unlikely. And how much better dose he really make them, even if he dose produce another career year, they were already a 90 win team with a record setting number of injuries. They'll probably win their division again regardless of Dozier.

[CiabanItReal]

 

And you think Dozier can repeat those numbers at Dodger stadium? I hope the Dodger brass know he can't. [/quote

With the rocket pads in az and Colorado he very well may

He has to play as many games in S.F. and S.D. as he dose in Zona and Col.

 

JDL and Alvarez don't help the 2017 Dodgers win games, unless they are traded.

2018 onward? Different discussion, but the Dodgers clearly want to WIN NOW.

JDL pitched in AAA and the majors last year, he could help the dodgers win games out of spring training if they named him to the rotation.

[HitInAPinch]

This just in:  Twins have signed pitcher Jim Miller to a MiLB contract and purchased the contract of indy OF Leandro Castro.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/twins-sign-jim-miller-rangers-sign-jaye-chapman.html

 

This message was brought to you by the "Free Brian Dozier" committee.  You may now continue with your blog    

[jimmer]

 

Anyone who thinks that is some preposterous deal for a player who could have 12 WAR over the next two seasons on a team friendly contract hasn't been watching baseball for that long IMO. It wouldn't end up going down as some huge overpay like some have claimed, it would go down initially as a pretty fair deal.

 

It's funny that you say that, cause I was thinking that, IMO, anyone who believes that Dozier is likely to accumulate 12 WAR over the next two years also hasn't been watching baseball for that long :-)