Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Personally i think the Twins are pressing their luck doing this.  

 

An extended break over the holidays could change thoughts and attitudes and torpedo the deal.  The Dodgers I'm sure have limited patience and could throw up their hands and walk away while still being a good team next season.  The Twins don't have that luxury.  Its clear the advantage goes to LA on that one.  Now it's true the Twins don't "have to" deal Brian Dozier, but the truth is if they want to significantly improve the team he needs to be dealt at maximum value, which is now.    

 

You take De Leon and Alvarez and maybe a lesser prospect and thank your lucky stars and get ready for the season.  It would be fantastic if they got more to bolster the ranks, but sometimes a good deal is too good to turn down especially when your this bad.  

 

Potentially yes, but I'm not sure the Dodgers have much in terms of other options.  They had poor production at 2B and Dozier is the best option available.  Period.  Kintzler is going to cost something similar and gets to renegotiate his contract as a part of the deal. They can go in with the team they have, but they run the risk, in particular knowing that their opponents got better... 

 

I don't want this to drag out too long, but I don't think LA holds all the leverage. LA has leverage, but so does MN.  I think Dozier should be traded, but I don't want Levine/Falvey to take what they can get.  If they think that is under valued, by all means ask for more.  I'd think the famous PTBNL could certainly be in play here. 

[DodgerFan1234]

So I decided to do a quick search and found this list of top 100 Dodgers prospects from March of last year. I Would love to see a more recent list to peruse but despite all the posts to this subject, no-one else has thrown up an easy link. So, peruse this list and tell me who you would want?

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/03/08/2016-dodgers-top-100-prospects-the-top-10/

 

or use this list of mid season top 30. I just don't know if the dodgers are going to give up a third top 30 though...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/07/11/2016-dodgers-prospects-midseason-top-30-update/

I've been on record as saying I don't believe that Alvarez is the 2nd piece. Knowing the system and needs I see the second piece being either Verdugo or Calhoun with the 3rd piece being someone between either 17-20 and/or 24-29. There's been mention of a "lottery ticket". I have read good things in particular about Davis and Abdullah from Dodger prospect hounds.

[Mr. Brooks]

If you owned a store and had perishable items overstocked, you'd be a fool to hold out for full retail price when only one customer was interested.

Now, maybe if you are being lowballed you hold out for more customers. But if someone offers 90 cents on the dollar you don't say I'd rather just keep it and let it spoil because it's "worth" more than that.

[darin617]

Can we all be serious for a moment. The Twins will lose 90+ games in 2017 with or without Brian Dozier. I hope they keep up the patience and get the pieces they feel are what they demand in return from LA.  I also would like to see a little game of chicken and give LA a deadline of tomorrow 3 pm and if a deal is not reached they will come back to the table on January 9th. Maybe a mystery team might try and steal Dozier away (Yankees).

[Intramural Legend]

 

Think of the Dodgers as a movie theater. They already have the iMax 3D screen (Kershaw), the best surround system (Seager, Peterson, farm system) and decent seats.

The Twins have those reclining leather chairs (Dozier) to make the Dodgers a go-to theater. Do they need those reclining leather chairs? Not really. Everything else is top notch.

 

Except another movie theater just down the road added those leather chairs. The only reason San Fran didn't win that division was the backend of their bullpen, and that was certainly addressed this off season. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you owned a store and had perishable items overstocked, you'd be a fool to hold out for full retail price when only one customer was interested.
Now, maybe if you are being lowballed you hold out for more customers. But if someone offers 90 cents on the dollar you don't say I'd rather just keep it and let it spoil because it's "worth" more than that.

 

Yes, but the expiration date on a Dozier is probably in Feb...  That's when you take 90 cents on the dollar...

 

Problem is that we don't know which other teams are involved. SF is rumored... Perhaps that's only there to drive up LAs price... who knows. 

[USAFChief]

If you owned a store and had perishable items overstocked, you'd be a fool to hold out for full retail price when only one customer was interested.

Now, maybe if you are being lowballed you hold out for more customers. But if someone offers 90 cents on the dollar you don't say I'd rather just keep it and let it spoil because it's "worth" more than that.

If I owned that store my definition of "perishable" would differ.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yes, but the expiration date on a Dozier is probably in Feb...  That's when you take 90 cents on the dollar...

 

Problem is that we don't know which other teams are involved. SF is rumored... Perhaps that's only there to drive up LAs price... who knows. 

 

I'd be leaking rumors left and right if I were the Giants and Twins.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

I'd be leaking rumors left and right if I were the Giants and Twins.

I would think Andrew Friedman and Co over at Dodger HQ are smart enough to see through that and not care.  Just as Favley and Co @ Twins HQ are probably smart enough to see right through the recent mentions of Kinsler/Forsythe.

[gunnarthor]

Honestly two top 100 prospects + more isn't an unreasonable ask for the Twins. 

 

Looking at past trades, two years of Dozier is probably worth something close to the Gomez trade.

[doscinco]

Except another movie theater just down the road added those leather chairs. The only reason San Fran didn't win that division was the backend of their bullpen, and that was certainly addressed this off season.

And their offense, which is average at best. And back end of the rotation. And middle relief. And their lack of depth.

[jud6312]

 

I don't know, sounds like the kind of thing we'd lambast TR about, for not being realistic/aggressive enough (in fact we probably did, on a smaller scale with Plouffe last offseason).

I'm sure we did. But in his second go round it didn't seem to matter if he moved early or late ... the results were almost always the same and almost always negative.

[Major League Ready]

 

I've been on record as saying I don't believe that Alvarez is the 2nd piece. Knowing the system and needs I see the second piece being either Verdugo or Calhoun with the 3rd piece being someone between either 17-20 and/or 24-29. There's been mention of a "lottery ticket". I have read good things in particular about Davis and Abdullah from Dodger prospect hounds.

Agree.  You would think this trade would have been done by now if Alvarez was the 2nd piece but who knows.

[mudcat14]

 

So I decided to do a quick search and found this list of top 100 Dodgers prospects from March of last year. I Would love to see a more recent list to peruse but despite all the posts to this subject, no-one else has thrown up an easy link. So, peruse this list and tell me who you would want? 

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/03/08/2016-dodgers-top-100-prospects-the-top-10/

 

or use this list of mid season top 30. I just don't know if the dodgers are going to give up a third top 30 though...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/07/11/2016-dodgers-prospects-midseason-top-30-update/

 

According to that update, they did give up 30% of their Top 10 for a three month rental of Hill and Reddick.  Yes they resigned Hill, but he'll make more in each year of his deal than Dozier in two seasons.

[beckmt]

Let's break this down.  Is Dozier worth more than a number 3 starter with outside upside to a #2.  Is Alverez a sure thing or just a 30% - 50% proposition.  I am among the few that seems to think that prospects are prospects until they fail or are proven.  Twins need to get more tickets than a mid level rotation piece and at best a 50% prospect who could well turn into something good.  I would want more.

One reason Rays are not being addressed is that they want Bellinger.  He is as close to a sure thing as the Dodgers have and the Dodgers have more starting pitchers and prospects than position players.

One other thing Kinsler costs a lot more because of the luxury tax issue, so an extension or big pay raise to waive the no trade is a nonstarter.

[nicksaviking]

If I owned that store my definition of "perishable" would differ.

Well your generation is much more comfortable with the idea of eating Spam.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I agree. You DON'T need multiple major league ready starters for Dozier. Better off getting a higher potential starter from the lower levels of the minors as the second piece, IMO ...

I disagree. the Twins should be targeting two MLB or near-MLB starters for Dozier. Don't undersell him. He's a great asset!

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Let's break this down.  Is Dozier worth more than a number 3 starter with outside upside to a #2.  Is Alverez a sure thing or just a 30% - 50% proposition.  I am among the few that seems to think that prospects are prospects until they fail or are proven.  Twins need to get more tickets than a mid level rotation piece and at best a 50% prospect who could well turn into something good.  I would want more.

One reason Rays are not being addressed is that they want Bellinger.  He is as close to a sure thing as the Dodgers have and the Dodgers have more starting pitchers and prospects than position players.

One other thing Kinsler costs a lot more because of the luxury tax issue, so an extension or big pay raise to waive the no trade is a nonstarter.

I agree. Pitchers who are not even in AA yet should be off the board for the Twins to acquire, as a major piece of this trade. The Twins have at least some of the offense they need, but they need pitching to solidify their rotation.

 

Trading Dozier for less than 2 near-MLB ready starters is underselling him. Just getting one MLB-ready starter such as De Leon and a bunch of prospects is not valuing Dozier high enough.

 

Remember, he's a key cog in the offensive machine for the Twins. Trading him for just one starting pitcher and a bunch of single A prospects –who may or may not work out – is like blindly throwing darts at a dartboard. We're giving up an established starter (Dozier) who plays a proficient 2B and who hit 42 homers last year. That's not an asset I would undersell. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes, but the expiration date on a Dozier is probably in Feb... That's when you take 90 cents on the dollar...

 

Problem is that we don't know which other teams are involved. SF is rumored... Perhaps that's only there to drive up LAs price... who knows.

The customer offering 90 cents on the dollar might not wait around until February. He might go to a different store.

 

I'm not saying it HAS to be a rush, although I do believe the best offer is going to come from the Dodgers. I also think they will get sick of the games at some point and walk away from the table forever.

 

I was more responding to those saying take 100 cents on the dollar or nothing at all.

[beckmt]

 

I disagree. the Twins should be targeting two MLB or near-MLB starters for Dozier. Don't undersell him. He's a great asset!

Dodgers do not have a second piece higher than a #4 or #5 starter outside of Deleon Do not want cheap pieces and either should the Twins.  Give me some meat otherwise find another organization that will not buy cheap.  However consider De Leon, Alverez and a third piece if a prospect and not org filler to be fair.

[Riverbrian]

I keep thinking that the Braves could be thinking about Dozier.

 

I think the Brave additions in the rotation signify that they would like to put something half interesting out there for the opening of a new stadium. They really need a big bat.

 

I think showing up in the rumors for Chris Sale possibly suggests that the Braves may think they are closer than the entire country thinks they are.

 

Maybe Atlanta could pony up a couple of arms for Dozier. They got em.

 

I also think the Rays and D-Backs could part with an arm and still have a damn good rotation and greatly benefit from the addition of Dozier. The D-Back and Rays didn't perform well last year but they have decent rotations that could bring them into the mix if they just progress to the norm. Adding Dozier to the D-Backs deepens that offense nicely. The Rays have needed hitting since the early 17th century.

 

I agree the Dodgers make the most sense but I think there are a few more teams that wouldn't hang up the phone if given the chance to talk Dozier and those are 3 teams that make a little bit of sense to me.

 

I think both the Twins and Dodgers have plenty of leverage.

[darin617]

 

I disagree. the Twins should be targeting two MLB or near-MLB starters for Dozier. Don't undersell him. He's a great asset!

 

This reminds me of the Santana trade all over again. I felt the Twins possibly felt pressured into having Carlos Gomez in the majors right away to show that they got a major leaguer back in the deal. Gomez was so raw and desperately needed more time in the majors before being called up. The Mets were notorious for rushing prospects to the majors and hopefully the Twins make the right decisions in whoever they get in return in a possible Brian Dozier deal. 

[DaveW]

Alvarez has ace potential iMo

[Riverbrian]

Personally... I just want a pitcher who can pair with Berrios as a high upside young arm in 2017.

 

And... And... another highly thought of arm that will show up at the same time or a year after the arrivals of Gonsalves, Jay,.. Stewart timetable.

 

I don't care about position players right now. We got some of those and we can make some more.

[Oxtung]

I disagree. the Twins should be targeting two MLB or near-MLB starters for Dozier. Don't undersell him. He's a great asset!

I think the poster you quoted, and I certainly subscribe to this, is that I'd rather have the A-Ball pitcher who might become an ace rather than the AAA guy who is destined to be a back of the rotation/swing man.

 

Another way of thinking about this is I'd rather take a chance on Alex Meyer than settle for Pedro Hernandez.

[brockbesler]

I think the poster you quoted, and I certainly subscribe to this, is that I'd rather have the A-Ball pitcher who might become an ace rather than the AAA guy who is destined to be a back of the rotation/swing man.

 

Another way of thinking about this is I'd rather take a chance on Alex Meyer than settle for Pedro Hernandez.

This is exactly what's holding up the deal IMO. I think the Twins want a third piece that actually has a chance at becoming something.

[nicksaviking]

I keep thinking that the Braves could be thinking about Dozier.

I think the Brave additions in the rotation signify that they would like to put something half interesting out there for the opening of a new stadium. They really need a big bat.

I think showing up in the rumors for Chris Sale possibly suggests that the Braves may think they are closer than the entire country thinks they are.

I like the idea of other teams getting involved, but I think I'd pass on the Braves. They continually have top pitching prospects for about a decade now and they keep going bust. Lots of injuries, lots of flameouts and lots of over-projection, something doesn't seem right over there, it could be dumb luck but at this point I'm way too suspicious of mis-use or undue hype.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

Alvarez has ace potential iMo

I agree with this assessment.  Most Dodger prospect hounds seem to agree with this assessment.  So it begs the question, why?  The Dodgers under Friedman have shown not to cave under pressure with premium prospects.  They did not trade Seager or Urias for Hamels or Price when they were the "missing piece".  That was when Urias was nothing more than a prospect with Ace potential.  

 

So I'm glad we agree.  But, why now?  I would reason that the Dodgers are not averse to parting with Alvarez.  Surely if the Angels were willing to Trout for example and they wanted him as the 3rd piece after say Urias and Bellinger you do it (plus more).  No offense to Twins fans but Dozier is a good piece, a good cog in the wheel.  He's not a premium player (Sale for 3 years, Archer for 5) though.  In the eyes of many on the Dodger side, both JDL and Alvarez are the centerpiece of a trade.  You trade multiple centerpieces for a premium player with 2 years left.  Somebody more akin to Machado or Harper if they become available.

[AZTwin]

No offense dodger fans but it's a minimum those two are included. Prospects are prospects. De Leon has a lot of question marks. Alvarez has more chance of fizzling out than being an ace at this point. You don't trade for a 40 home run guy with 2 years at friendly contract for AAAA players. Those two are a minimum. I think they should get a decent 3rd guy as well so I'm glad we're holding out.

[DodgerFan1234]

Chris Camello is a reporter for a small online media company covering LA sports.  Last week he made a public proclamation based on his sources within the Dodger organization.  That the Dodgers would re-sign both Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen.  You gotta give it to the kid.  He put his reputation on the line and guess what, he was correct.  He even got a shout out from Rosenthal for scooping the national media.  

 

Chris was asked today whether

1.  There was any truth to both JDL & Alvarez already being agreed to, but the parties quibbling over the 3rd piece, and

2. Whether he could see Alvarez going with JDL.

 

To #1, he could not confirm such a conversation had taken place.

To #2, (his opinion) he had a tough time believing this to be true unless Friedman and Co. knew something about Alvarez that gave them reason to give up on him.

 

Here's a link to his timeline.

 

https://twitter.com/Chris_Camello