Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TyTY23]

 

For a team so close it seems like a losing strategy to rely on highly risky prospects and players to improve rather than acquiring a known star. Jmo of course

This philosophy has been working for them lately. The Dodgers continue to place themselves in winning situations, and with their prospect ready to play a bigger role their winning ways should continue. If not traded, JDL and Stewart should play bigger roles this year too.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

For a team so close it seems like a losing strategy to rely on highly risky prospects and players to improve rather than acquiring a known star. Jmo of course

They can do both, it's not either/or. Look at the Cubs. Invest in stars who are free agents and re-signs and keep your best prospects. That is pretty clearly the path to building the best team.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

For a team so close it seems like a losing strategy to rely on highly risky prospects and players to improve rather than acquiring a known star. Jmo of course

I can understand why you would feel that way, but at the same time the teams that are consistently good, have consistently good minor league systems.  When the O'Malley's ran the team, the Dodgers had Rookie of the Year after Rookie of the Year.  Kasten feels that if you're in the playoffs 10 years in a row then more than likely that you will win at least one.  The Blue Jays went all in recently and they may regret it big time in the near future.  I do think the Dodgers will adjust that attitude a bit when they get those contracts off the books.  You also have to remember that they just dealt 3 pitching prospects to Oakland for Hill and Reddick.  Reddick was a bust and Frankie Montas at minimum could have slid into the 8th inning spot next year.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

They have the prospects to make an in-season trade if circumstances warrant. And they are actually better suited to do that if they don't give up a ton right now for Dozier.

Look at 2016 -- they cheaply patched 2B in the offseason, and went out and got a SP and an OF as needed at the deadline.

I agree.  Guys like De Jong, Oaks, Sborz, Toles, and Stewart have been fast risers. If the Dodgers can't figure out what to do with McCarthy and Kazmir they could have Urias, Deleon, Stewart, De Jong, and Oaks as their AAA rotation at the start of the year with Sborz waiting for Urias to move up again.  I have a hard time believing they will start Urias there but it is possible.  Anyways, those fast risers will have a chance to settle in at AAA and establish what they truly are instead of automatically getting tabbed as 4 or 5's.  

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

This is not an average lineup by any measure. The Dodgers also led the league in players in the DL last year. If they can sustain a successful season with so many injuries I think they will be alright this year. Also, last year everyone wrote the Dodger off and gave the division to the Giants or the DBax when the Dodgers lost Greinke and the Giants sign Cueto and others. 

You're right I suppose the players going on the DL hurt it a lot, but 7th in the NL in runs and 9th in OPS. That seems pretty average to me. It's not a bad lineup, but it helps to add a few pieces. But I agree I think the Dodgers are the favorite to win the NL west again. All I was saying was Dozier really seems to be a great fit with the Dodgers as he helps with a lot of their problems.

[HawkeyeDodger]

From what I've heard from multiple sources ( Not my source or anything like that) is they agreed on JDL as the headline.  The Dodgers gave the Twins a list of names/prospects that they were willing to deal and for the Twins to choose from to add to JDL.  The Twins gave the Dodgers a list they would like as possible add-ons to JDL as well.  When they exchanged those names,  quite simply the names on the respective lists didn't match up enough to make a deal.  There wasn't a one for one offer.   That was complete non-sense.

 

Dave may prove me wrong, but from the Dodgers perspective i don't see Bellinger, Alvarez, or Buehler added.  I also think they will have a tough time giving up Stewart AND JDL because they will need at least one if they can move McCarthy and/or Kazmir.  I see the Dodgers offering something like JDL, Shefield,  choice of De Jong or Oaks, Rios for 2 years of Dozier.  If it becomes JDL and Stewart and 3rd piece is going to be a AAAA player.  

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

They have the prospects to make an in-season trade if circumstances warrant. And they are actually better suited to do that if they don't give up a ton right now for Dozier.

Look at 2016 -- they cheaply patched 2B in the offseason, and went out and got a SP and an OF as needed at the deadline.

I agree with this. All I was saying is Dozier helps a lot of their problems. Like other posts haave said it'd be smart if they just traded for him at the deadline and maybe gave up less to get him because all they really need him for is the postseason. Dozier just seems to be a great fit with the Dodgers

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

You're right I suppose the players going on the DL hurt it a lot, but 7th in the NL in runs and 9th in OPS. That seems pretty average to me. It's not a bad lineup, but it helps to add a few pieces. But I agree I think the Dodgers are the favorite to win the NL west again. All I was saying was Dozier really seems to be a great fit with the Dodgers as he helps with a lot of their problems.

You're correct.  Dozier to the Dodgers has grown on me.  I much preferred Kinsler a month ago, and still do to a lesser extent,  but even as an avg defender he upgrades the only position that graded below avg on the Dodgers last year.  He will help against lefties as will some other players returning to their norm.

[doscinco]

Fangraphs chat

 

1:09 Adam: I am dialed up to 11 right now on Yadier Alvarez after seeing how effortlessly he can throw 99. Can you talk me down from that?

1:09 Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’ve already jumped.

 

12:51 Southern Doodle Dandy: Which is the most impressive fastball, breaking ball, and changeup that you saw in the minors last year?

 

12:54 Eric A Longenhagen: FB: Kopech/Alvarez

BB: Anderson Espinoza

CH: Quantrill? This one’s tough for some reason

 

1:09 Bob: I think everyone is expecting Bellinger to mash at OKC and get called up pretty early, how long can he sustain playing respectable defense in LF?

1:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Forever. I’ve spoken with scouts who think he could pass in CF. Dude is a freak.

1:10 Eric A Longenhagen: But he’s a 70 glove at 1B so I think that’s ultimately where he ends up.

 

1:32 YOYOma: do you see the twins getting a better overall prospect than de leon in any trade scenario involving dozier?

 

1:33 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. They could get De Leon + but probably not a guy I have ranked ahead of De Leon.

[AZTwin]

If the dodgers want to get dozier without Alvarez expect many top prospects further away such as Lux, heredita, and to a lesser extent Ruiz in addition to pro ready players

[BuxtonBandwagon]

 

You're correct.  Dozier to the Dodgers has grown on me.  I much preferred Kinsler a month ago, and still do to a lesser extent,  but even as an avg defender he upgrades the only position that graded below avg on the Dodgers last year.  He will help against lefties as will some other players returning to their norm.

Exactly the more you think about it the better it seems. I ass,umed any shot we had of trading Dozier would be to the Mets(assuming they didn't resign Walker), but the Dodgers are a great fit. Just a thought where do you see Dozier batting in the Dodger lineup? Also thank you Dodgers posters for educating me on the Dodgers franchise and their trade tendencies, it's helped me gauge what to expect from this trade.

[doscinco]

Speaking of Ruiz,

1:04 YOLO: Which of these super young catchers do you think has a better shot of becoming a "dude". Keibert Ruiz or Meibrys Viloria?

 

1:04 Eric A Longenhagen: Ruiz but I like them both

[DJSim22]

If the Dodgers really are only offering De Leon, walk away and don't look back.

[CiabanItReal]

 

You're right dozier isn't worth that. He's worth more. It's funny how much dodger fans overrate their prospects

Then why haven't the twins traded him for more than a JDL, Stewart, Alvarez package? If he's WORTH MORE they would have received it by now since he's been available for more than a month.

Well, for sure, Dozier isn't worth a package that includes JDL AND Alvarez AND Stewart.  He is worth JDL and another decent prospect though (someone like Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield, Lux)

The dodgers seem to value Buehler as highly as they do Alverez. Remember he was a guy getting considered to go 1:1 the year he came out but fell due to VALID injury concerns.

[CiabanItReal]

 

I honestly think de Jong or Stewart are AAAA types

You've made that pretty clear by now.

However a guy who managed a 9.3 K/9 over 150 minor/major league innings and a 1.8 BB/9 isn't likely to be a quad A guy, not with that kind of control and strike out stuff. in fact, I can't think of a guy with that kind of command that didn't succeed in the majors without injury.

He has a projected FIP of 3.62 next year, that would put him in Carlos Martinez/ Julio Tehran territory.

[CiabanItReal]

 

You're right I suppose the players going on the DL hurt it a lot, but 7th in the NL in runs and 9th in OPS. That seems pretty average to me. It's not a bad lineup, but it helps to add a few pieces. But I agree I think the Dodgers are the favorite to win the NL west again. All I was saying was Dozier really seems to be a great fit with the Dodgers as he helps with a lot of their problems.

I think your right on both accounts, but all the injuries made an impact on their offensive production though.

And dozier is a really good fit for the dodgers.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Exactly the more you think about it the better it seems. I ass,umed any shot we had of trading Dozier would be to the Mets(assuming they didn't resign Walker), but the Dodgers are a great fit. Just a thought where do you see Dozier batting in the Dodger lineup? Also thank you Dodgers posters for educating me on the Dodgers franchise and their trade tendencies, it's helped me gauge what to expect from this trade.

They didn't resign him, he took the QO, I think if he hadn't he'd probably be a dodger right now.

Though the Mets are really deep in the infield with gavin cecchini and ahem rosario in AAA.

[jimmer]

 

Then why haven't the twins traded him for more than a JDL, Stewart, Alvarez package? If he's WORTH MORE they would have received it by now since he's been available for more than a month.

The dodgers seem to value Buehler as highly as they do Alverez. Remember he was a guy getting considered to go 1:1 the year he came out but fell due to VALID injury concerns.

yeah, they may out-wordly claim that they value Buehler and Alvarez the same, but I doubt it.

[drjim]

yeah, they may out-wordly claim that they value Buehler and Alvarez the same, but I doubt it.

I think I would value Buehler higher, though the TJ makes it hard.

[Riverbrian]

You're correct.  Dozier to the Dodgers has grown on me.  I much preferred Kinsler a month ago, and still do to a lesser extent,  but even as an avg defender he upgrades the only position that graded below avg on the Dodgers last year.  He will help against lefties as will some other players returning to their norm.

The more I read stuff like Dozier is an avg. defender. The further away I become from ever believing defensive metrics.

 

Dozier can play the position. There is absolutely no reason to feel that acquiring Dozier is some sort of defensive sacrifice.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The more I read stuff like Dozier is an avg. defender. The further away I become from ever believing defensive metrics.

Dozier can play the position. There is absolutely no reason to feel that acquiring Dozier is some sort of defensive sacrifice.

 

Very confused. Doesn't Dozier being an "average defender" almost by definition means he is NOT "some sort of defensive sacrifice"? Wouldn't Dozier being a defensive sacrifice normally mean he is a BELOW average defender? 

 

 

[laloesch]

 

If the Dodgers really are only offering De Leon, walk away and don't look back.

 

Agreed.  If that's all that's on the table (I doubt it) you walk away no questions asked.

 

I tend to believe Dave that its DeLeon and Alvarez, plus one other.  As was said earlier the likely sticking point is the third piece of the deal that they are haggling over.  Dodgers want it to be a PTBNL but the Twins want something of value with upside and i understand why.  

 

DeLeon had a terrible debut and has had injury issues throughout his minor league career.  He is far from a sure bet at this point.  Alvarez has fantastic stuff but has only pitched 59 innings in the minors so far (A ball).  He's at least 2 to 3 seasons from the majors.  

 

IMO they need something else closer to the majors to make this work in my opinion, such as Brock Stewart who can step in now. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

You're right I suppose the players going on the DL hurt it a lot, but 7th in the NL in runs and 9th in OPS.

First, you need to look at a stat with park adjustments. Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park.

 

Secondly, I posted some numbers upthread -- all pitchers are bad hitters, but the Dodgers pitchers were especially terrible hitters last year compared to other playoff teams and contenders.

 

By park adjusted wRC+, just looking at non-pitchers, the Dodgers offense was 4th in the NL and 7th in MLB.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Agreed.  If that's all that on the table you walk away no questions asked.

 

I haven't written in the thread for a few days; is there anyone really on either side that is saying it is a 1 for 1 offer with just De Leon? Where did this come from? Every Dodger writer/offer I read online has it at LEAST a 2 for 1 trade, and maybe even 3 for 1 depending on the players. Where is this 1 for 1 stuff coming from?

 

And yes, I'll admit, this thread is a little tl;dr for me at times. But I haven't heard that this is even a possibility.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They didn't resign him, he took the QO, I think if he hadn't he'd probably be a dodger right now.

Though the Mets are really deep in the infield with gavin cecchini and ahem rosario in AAA.

Walker was available for Niese last winter. Kinda surprised the Dodgers didn't get in on that, or close out a FA deal with Zobrist.

 

But a conservative offer for Dozier would be in keeping with their recent approach at the position.

[laloesch]

 

I haven't written in the thread for a few days; is there anyone really on either side that is saying it is a 1 for 1 offer with just De Leon? Where did this come from? Every Dodger writer/offer I read online has it at LEAST a 2 for 1 trade, and maybe even 3 for 1 depending on the players. Where is this 1 for 1 stuff coming from?

 

And yes, I'll admit, this thread is a little tl;dr for me at times. But I haven't heard that this is even a possibility.

 

I think La Velle at the Star Tribune started this (rolls eyes).  

 

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

 

To be perfectly honest I don't know where he is getting this.  Maybe he has insider sources, perhaps this is an assumption based on how long this has been dragged out.  Either way I take what he says with a pinch of salt.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I think La Velle at the Star Tribune started this (rolls eyes).  

 

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

 

To be perfectly honest I don't know where he is getting this.  Maybe he has insider sources, perhaps this is an assumption based on how long this has been dragged out.  Either way I take what he says with a pinch of salt.

 

Thanks!

[Riverbrian]

 

Very confused. Doesn't Dozier being an "average defender" almost by definition means he is NOT "some sort of defensive sacrifice"? Wouldn't Dozier being a defensive sacrifice normally mean he is a BELOW average defender? 

 

It could quite possibly be my interpretation of Hawkeye's quote. It read backhanded to me.

 

Kind of like... Despite the size of Karl Malden's nose... he's a pretty good actor.  

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think La Velle at the Star Tribune started this (rolls eyes).

 

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

 

To be perfectly honest I don't know where he is getting this. Maybe he has insider sources, perhaps this is an assumption based on how long this has been dragged out. Either way I take what he says with a pinch of salt.

I think it is fairly universally accepted here (or it should be ) that by "another prospect", Neal meant a SPECIFIC other prospect, not just any other prospect. (It wouldn't make much sense otherwise, I am sure the Dodgers could find any other prospect to add if that was really the hang-up.)

 

Frankly, neither Neal nor Heyman or other media types have reported at all on names like Stewart, Calhoun, etc. Their reports have been limited to the big 3-4 names. I think it is safe to say other names beyond those would be in play too.

[laloesch]

 

I think it is fairly universally accepted here (or it should be ) that by "another prospect", Neal meant a SPECIFIC other prospect, not just any other prospect. (It wouldn't make much sense otherwise, I am sure the Dodgers could find any other prospect to add if that was really the hang-up.)

Frankly, neither Neal nor Heyman or other media types have reported at all on names like Stewart, Calhoun, etc. Their reports have been limited to the big 3-4 names. I think it is safe to say other names beyond those would be in play too.

 

I know what you are saying, but in response to Enge0280's earlier post about the "1 for 1" rumors circling, that started after Neal published this tribune piece (i think).  He clearly stated that DeLeon is on the table and the Twins asked for one other prospect (whomever that might be) and the Dodgers held firm in saying no. So if that's true the Dodger are holding firm on a 1 for 1 trade.  As to whether he meant that, only Neal knows.

 

If it's true (which i highly doubt) there's no way in hell i trade Dozier for DeLeon straight up.  That would be an insanely stupid trade by the Twins.  No way can you gamble losing a 29 year old power hitting first baseman for one starting pitching prospect with a history of shoulder problems and a terrible debut last season.