Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[goulik]

So 5yrs/75Million would be the same as 2/15 + 3/60. Would he bite on that? Would we want him for 15 per year for 5 years? In the same vein of us trying to trade him at peak value, that would be extending him at peak value. 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

So 5yrs/75Million would be the same as 2/15 + 3/60. Would he bite on that? Would we want him for 15 per year for 5 years? In the same vein of us trying to trade him at peak value, that would be extending him at peak value. 

If I were in Dozier's shoes, I'd gamble on myself and explore FA in 2018. That way you could theoretically get that 5 year deal and not have to worry about finding another job at 35 years old. I really do think that some team will drastically overpay for him when they lose out on Harper and Machado.  

[markos]

I'm not sure what you are getting at with this experiment?

 

A little more control and especially a team option would certainly make him more valuable, as is the case with most players.  But that's not the deal he signed, nor is it achievable now.

 

I think any extension now would involve at least 3/60 on top of his current deal, and possibly more.

I'm not sure what you are getting at with this experiment?

 

A little more control and especially a team option would certainly make him more valuable, as is the case with most players.  But that's not the deal he signed, nor is it achievable now.

 

I think any extension now would involve at least 3/60 on top of his current deal, and possibly more.

Sorry. Yes, my point was not fully fleshed out in my previous post. Basically, I was trying to point out that not ALL extensions are bad at this point and some would even enhance his trade value. So there might (might!) be a window where an extension is a win-win for the twins and Dozier. Especially since it isn't crazy to think that a 32-year-old Dozier might have very few options if he has a bad 2018, kind of like Desmond in after 2015.

[CiabanItReal]

 

If I were in Dozier's shoes, I'd gamble on myself and explore FA in 2018. That way you could theoretically get that 5 year deal and not have to worry about finding another job at 35 years old. I really do think that some team will drastically overpay for him when they lose out on Harper and Machado.  

Me too, he's already made 6 mill and has another 15 guaranteed to him on the way. That's 21 mill in career earnings even if he sucks from this point forward, guys have sold out their free agent years for less than that. He already has a good amount guaranteed, now it's time to maximize earnings.

[drjim]

 

Sorry. Yes, my point was not fully fleshed out in my previous post. Basically, I was trying to point out that not ALL extensions are bad at this point and some would even enhance his trade value. So there might (might!) be a window where an extension is a win-win for the twins and Dozier. Especially since it isn't crazy to think that a 32-year-old Dozier might have very few options if he has a bad 2018, kind of like Desmond in after 2015.

 

It would take something like a 3/50-60 at this point. And I don't think it would necessarily be a disaster to do that for the Twins based on how they are currently constructed.

 

But he's not adding on one year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It would take something like a 3/50-60 at this point. And I don't think it would necessarily be a disaster to do that for the Twins based on how they are currently constructed.

 

But he's not adding on one year.

 

I would hope that we've learned, by and large, those deals are not wise.  Especially for post-30 year old players.

[nicksaviking]

 

Can he lead off? Because even his career best .345 obp in 2014 still isn't ideal for a lead off hitter, and he just as easily could go back to his 2013/2015 OBP of .309 and .312

 

I agree he shouldn't, we complained about it here all year.

 

But looking at the Dodgers roster what's their plan? It was Utley and his .319 OBP last year.

[laloesch]

Dave tweeted yesterday (i think) that talks are heating back up again and that his source is certain a deal will be done by end of business week.  

 

Yea or nay?  I'm gonna gamble and say yea.  Dozier for DeLeon, Alvarez and Stewart 

[gunnarthor]

 

Dave tweeted yesterday (i think) that talks are heating back up again and that his source is certain a deal will be done by end of business week.  

 

Yea or nay?  I'm gonna gamble and say yea.  Dozier for DeLeon, Alvarez and Stewart 

Well, that would be nice.

[HitInAPinch]

 

This is from the Fangraphs prospect chat today relating towards Yadier Alvarez:

Sonny

12:34 What is a realistic timeline for Yadi Alvarez in LA? Is 2017 too early?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:34 2017 probably way too fast, more like 2019 or 2020.

If things pan out with Berrios and De Leon, and the group of Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Sano progress as expected/hope,  I think having Alvarez ready by 2019 would be perfect timing.

 

If Falvey can squeak out another promising SP from LA with the same debut time, this would be a fantastic trade!

[HitInAPinch]

 

If Mayer wasn't on the team, I'd also consider Dozier in the two slot, maybe even the three slot during those months he turns into a home run machine.

Or hell, maybe even fourth with Sano third.

But not leadoff. He hits too many homers and too few other hits to be a leadoff guy.

Dozier is on record as saying he likes to hit lead-off. 

In an American League scenario / Twins fantasy scenario, if the #8 and 9 hitters had good OBP's, I like Dozier in the lead-off spot. 

In the National League, there's that pesky Pitcher hitting 9th  

[TyTY23]

 

Dave tweeted yesterday (i think) that talks are heating back up again and that his source is certain a deal will be done by end of business week.  

 

Yea or nay?  I'm gonna gamble and say yea.  Dozier for DeLeon, Alvarez and Stewart 

That will definitely go against what the Dodgers have been saying for several years now about developing from within, especially pitchers. The president of the Dodgers has adamantly preached that he is hesitant to give pitchers long contract because "pitchers break," thus, he has said repeatedly the Dodger will remain competitive with a surplus of pitchers instead. I'm 100% sure that JDL, Alvarez, and Stewart will not be the framework of the deal if the Twins and the Dodgers ever come to agreement. IMO Dozier is not worth that deal. The Dodgers will be fine without him and they should just keep their three pitchers and fix their weaknesses during the trading deadline instead.  

[jimmer]

Concerning players some believe we could/should get for Dozier

 

 

Adam: I am dialed up to 11 right now on Yadier Alvarez after seeing how effortlessly he can throw 99. Can you talk me down from that?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’ve already jumped.

Bob: I think everyone is expecting Bellinger to mash at OKC at get called up pretty early, how long can he sustain playing respectable defense in LF?

Eric A Longenhagen: For eh ver. I’ve spoken with scouts who think he could pass in CF. Dude is a freak.

Eric A Longenhagen: But he’s a 70 glove at 1B so I think that’s ultimately where he ends up.

[BuxtonBandwagon]

I'm really hoping a trade gets done this week. I think if DaveW rumors are right my guess is we'll get a AAAA player with De Leon and Alvarez. Otherwise I think its De Leon, Stewart, and a low minors player with some potential (sheffield maybe).

[DaveW]

Yeah deal is close, both teams "back at it" today. Stay tuned sports fans!

[TyTY23]

There's this too:

 

YOYOma: do you see the twins getting a better overall prospect than de leon in any trade scenario involving dozier?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. They could get De Leon + but probably not a guy I have ranked ahead of De Leon. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

[TyTY23]

 

There's this too:

 

YOYOma: do you see the twins getting a better overall prospect than de leon in any trade scenario involving dozier?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. They could get De Leon + but probably not a guy I have ranked ahead of De Leon. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

Apparently Yo-Yo Ma is also concern about the haul that the Twins might be getting, lol. 

[jimmer]

 

Apparently Yo-Yo Ma is also concern about the haul that the Twins might be getting, lol. 

yeah, I'd be very happy with De Leon and Buehler.  And I've been saying all along I think Bellinger and Alvarez were off limits in a trade for Dozier.

[AZTwin]

That will definitely go against what the Dodgers have been saying for several years now about developing from within, especially pitchers. The president of the Dodgers has adamantly preached that he is hesitant to give pitchers long contract because "pitchers break," thus, he has said repeatedly the Dodger will remain competitive with a surplus of pitchers instead. I'm 100% sure that JDL, Alvarez, and Stewart will not be the framework of the deal if the Twins and the Dodgers ever come to agreement. IMO Dozier is not worth that deal. The Dodgers will be fine without him and they should just keep their three pitchers and fix their weaknesses during the trading deadline instead.

You're right dozier isn't worth that. He's worth more. It's funny how much dodger fans overrate their prospects

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

The Dodgers need a 2B, they need right handed power and they need a guy who can hit at the top of the lineup.

 

So is it going to be easier to address those problems with one player? Or with three different players?

 

I'm not sure what will happen here, but this off season a team has to overpay and give up awfully uncomfortable prospects to get what it wants, I don't know why the Dodgers would be the exception. The Dodgers can try to spin this any way they want, but only one of the teams involved is trying to win right now, the only desperation from the Twins side is our posters (me included) who are simply anxious for some action this offseason because we likely won't be getting any this summer.

 

Completely disagree with the bold part. Every team is trying to win. The question is whether they have the players, whether the players have the talent and desire and heart, and whether a team can put it all together.

 

If the Twins are not trying to win now, then we might as well not even watch in 2017.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is from the Fangraphs prospect chat today relating towards Yadier Alvarez:

Sonny

12:34 What is a realistic timeline for Yadi Alvarez in LA? Is 2017 too early?

 

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:34 2017 probably way too fast, more like 2019 or 2020.

Thanks for the post. I think Longenhagen was typing too fast. Especially if he is also "at 11" on the guy as reported by Jimmer There is no reason to think Alvarez won't begin 2017 in A+ and earn a call up to AA before 2017 is done.

 

Likewise, JDL began 2015 in A+ and earned a call to AA before 2015 was up, then made his debut at the end of 2016.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I've read this multiple times throughout these threads and I wonder every time, so I'm just going to ask.

 

The offer of DeLeon+Alvarez+AAAA type does that mean a prospect that profiles as a AAAA type or an already established player on the 40-man that we'd all consider an AAAA type?

a quad-a player would not be a part of a package I would want for Dozier. I would rather have a low A lotto ticket. Quad A players are already in plentiful supply in the Twins system and eventually you get stuck in a box.

[AZTwin]

Thanks for the post. I think Longenhagen was typing too fast. Especially if he is also "at 11" on the guy as reported by Jimmer There is no reason to think Alvarez won't begin 2017 in A+ and earn a call up to AA before 2017 is done.

 

Likewise, JDL began 2015 in A+ and earned a call to AA before 2015 was up, then made his debut at the end of 2016.

Maybe he makes a debut in 2018 but it'll be as an reliever. That might be where he ends up, elite reliever. Would love to see him end up as a starter but he's a long ways. Potential is there though

[TyTY23]

 

You're right dozier isn't worth that. He's worth more. It's funny how much dodger fans overrate their prospect.

I'm not valuing Dozier to the reported return, lol. Boy, some homers really get their feelings hurt rather easily, lol. I was referring to the value of Dozier to the Dodgers winning during the season. Everyone knows  how much of a crap shoot the playoffs are, so its even harder to predict how much Dozier to the Dodgers winning it all might be worth. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

a quad-a player would not be a part of a package I would want for Dozier. I would rather have a low A lotto ticket. Quad A players are already in plentiful supply in the Twins system and eventually you get stuck in a box.

 

Depends, not all AAAA are made the same.  Chris Davis was once seen as a possible AAAA player for example.

 

If that fourth piece is Zach Lee or someone else that has slid back from a formerly high pedigree, I'm good with that.  

[jimmer]

 

That will definitely go against what the Dodgers have been saying for several years now about developing from within, especially pitchers. The president of the Dodgers has adamantly preached that he is hesitant to give pitchers long contract because "pitchers break," thus, he has said repeatedly the Dodger will remain competitive with a surplus of pitchers instead. I'm 100% sure that JDL, Alvarez, and Stewart will not be the framework of the deal if the Twins and the Dodgers ever come to agreement. IMO Dozier is not worth that deal. The Dodgers will be fine without him and they should just keep their three pitchers and fix their weaknesses during the trading deadline instead.  

Well, for sure, Dozier isn't worth a package that includes JDL AND Alvarez AND Stewart.  He is worth JDL and another decent prospect though (someone like Buehler, Stewart, Sheffield, Lux)

[TyTY23]

 

Maybe he makes a debut in 2018 but it'll be as an reliever. That might be where he ends up, elite reliever. Would love to see him end up as a starter but he's a long ways. Potential is there though

Based on what do you infer that Alvarez ends up as a reliever. Have you personally even seen the guy pitch, or might you be a scout, talent evaluator, etc?

[TyTY23]

 

Depends, not all AAAA are made the same.  Chris Davis was once seen as a possible AAAA player for example.

 

If that fourth piece is Zach Lee or someone else that has slid back from a formerly high pedigree, I'm good with that.  

Zach Lee is no longer a Dodger. 

[Riverbrian]

 

You're right dozier isn't worth that. He's worth more. It's funny how much dodger fans overrate their prospects

 

AZTwin... I'm not going to hide your post but I'm gonna ask you to not make blanket assumptions. 

 

I'm pretty sure Dodger Fans are just like Twins Fans. You'll probably find Dodger Fans that Overate their prospects and Dodger Fans that underrate their prospects and some Dodger Fans that rate them just right. 

 

Also keep in mind the difference in value that Twins Fans have expressed on the value of Brian Dozier. 

 

It's a difference of opinion and nothing more. 

 

Now if you want to say that Dodger Fans have more money... Yeah... that would be true. 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe he makes a debut in 2018 but it'll be as an reliever. That might be where he ends up, elite reliever. Would love to see him end up as a starter but he's a long ways. Potential is there though

JDL on a similar timetable did not make his debut as reliever so maybe not? The Dodgers think highly of Alvarez and rightly so.