Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[CiabanItReal]

 

Yeah thats probably about the right price for a fair trade on both sides.

You've come down a lot on the asking price compared to where you were a few days ago if you think that's fair for both sides, what gives?

[CiabanItReal]

 

A team that wants to win will give a fair package. No need to sell.

Fair is relative though.

[AZTwin]

You've come down a lot on the asking price compared to where you were a few days ago if you think that's fair for both sides, what gives?

I think I've been pretty consistent. If it's de Leon, alvarez and Stewart as a third piece I could still see it. I would still like to see a 4th piece like Ruiz included in that, but I could see that package being one where twins might be inclined to take it

[TyTY23]

 

I think I've been pretty consistent. If it's de Leon, alvarez and Stewart as a third piece I could still see it. I would still like to see a 4th piece like Ruiz included in that, but I could see that package being one where twins might be inclined to take it

We better get A LOT more that just Dozier for four prospects. I'm sorry but Dozier is not that valuable to the Dodgers. 

[Strato Guy]

 

We better get A LOT more that just Dozier for four prospects. I'm sorry but Dozier is not that valuable to the Dodgers. 

Well then the Dodgers can look elsewhere for a power hitting 2B who hits lefties well. Is that not what they need?

[CiabanItReal]

 

Well then the Dodgers can look elsewhere for a power hitting 2B who hits lefties well. Is that not what they need?

The problem is the twins can look elswhere for major league ready top pitching prospects. Even other teams with good minor league systems may end up being deep in position players and week in pitchers ala the cubs.

[CiabanItReal]

One of the reasons the dodgers haven't blinked yet is because they might be concerned about regression, in terms of home runs and in particular OBP. They also might not feel like the need two FULL years of Dozier and would rather pay less for 1.5 years of Dozier, since they really only need him for the playoffs. That and wait until July to see how his 2017 goes, where the rest of the market is at, and see how the depreciation of time effects his market.

[jimmer]

 

One of the reasons the dodgers haven't blinked yet is because they might be concerned about regression, in terms of home runs and in particular OBP. They also might not feel like the need two FULL years of Dozier and would rather pay less for 1.5 years of Dozier, since they really only need him for the playoffs. That and wait until July to see how his 2017 goes, where the rest of the market is at, and see how the depreciation of time effects his market.

Dozier had a career year.  OF COURSE there will be regression.  How much is the question.

[markos]

For those interested, I've posted the results of the survey about Dozier and the Dodgers.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/24575-dozier-to-dodgers-feedback/?p=570783

[Strato Guy]

Most everyone thinks Dozier will regress, but that might not be the case. After the first 2 months last year, something clicked with him. He became a different hitter. Every year his HR production has increased. Now that might not happen in 2017, but I think he will have a very good year. I think his BA will be about the same as last, and his BB's will increase because pitchers will pitch around him more. I am guessing 33 or 34 HRs.

 

[mazeville]

MLB Trade Rumors has a poll on whether Dozier gets traded:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/mlbtr-poll-will-the-twins-trade-brian-dozier.html

 

So far, most people still think he gets traded. I'm in the minority that says he won't. I think he should get traded, but it's starting to smell to me like it won't get done at all. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Most everyone thinks Dozier will regress, but that might not be the case. After the first 2 months last year, something clicked with him. He became a different hitter. Every year his HR production has increased. Now that might not happen in 2017, but I think he will have a very good year. I think his BA will be about the same as last, and his BB's will increase because pitchers will pitch around him more. I am guessing 33 or 34 HRs.

 

That's the rub how I see it, the Dodgers need to decide how MUCH regression they are in store for with Dozier. If everyone believed that he was about to really turn a leaf and be a 30+ homer/900 OPS threat for the next 5 years, this deal would be done already too. I don't think he falls off a cliff by any means, but it's hard to predict the future in this case.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Most everyone thinks Dozier will regress, but that might not be the case. After the first 2 months last year, something clicked with him. He became a different hitter.

Something clicked with Dozier in June 2013 too.  Something un-clicked with him in July 2015 as well.  I think it's just part of who he is as a hitter.

[gunnarthor]

 

Something clicked with Dozier in June 2013 too.  Something un-clicked with him in July 2015 as well.  I think it's just part of who he is as a hitter.

Yeah, but streaks aren't unusual for hitters.  

[nicksaviking]

 

We better get A LOT more that just Dozier for four prospects. I'm sorry but Dozier is not that valuable to the Dodgers. 

 

The Dodgers need a 2B, they need right handed power and they need a guy who can hit at the top of the lineup.

 

So is it going to be easier to address those problems with one player? Or with three different players?

 

I'm not sure what will happen here, but this off season a team has to overpay and give up awfully uncomfortable prospects to get what it wants, I don't know why the Dodgers would be the exception. The Dodgers can try to spin this any way they want, but only one of the teams involved is trying to win right now, the only desperation from the Twins side is our posters (me included) who are simply anxious for some action this offseason because we likely won't be getting any this summer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly. Why Is it not possible that he gets re-signed after the two years and becomes a life long Twin? Morneau, Hunter, Puckett, Killebrew, Oliva...none of them were FROM Minnesota! If we cannot get enough value from a trade, the value of a player that draws people to the stadium will outweigh a bad trade.

 

People don't buy tickets to 90 loss teams to watch Brian Dozier. 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't trade him just for 1 prospect, that's absurd. No way the Dodgers are offering one minor league player for Brian Dozier, no way. If so, they aren't really shopping.

[brvama]

People don't buy tickets to 90 loss teams to watch Brian Dozier.

 

I slightly and respectfully disagree. While winning puts people in the seats, in this culture of celeb hero worship there art many young people who only go to the games to see there hero. That doesn't fill stadiums or influence the casual fan, but it does maintain the interest of the youthful fan who attend to see their hero. And to expand on Gouliks point, a bad trade isn't necessarily going to improve the attendance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, but streaks aren't unusual for hitters.  

I never said otherwise.  Tell that to the poster suggesting Dozier's most recent 4 months might represent his new norm.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't trade him just for 1 prospect, that's absurd. No way the Dodgers are offering one minor league player for Brian Dozier, no way. If so, they aren't really shopping.

Agreed. I don't believe they would continue discussing a trade it it was just a 1 for 1 swap... If that was truly the case, the negotiations would be pretty simple. 

LA GM: "We like Dozier and will offer you De Leon." 
Falvey: "And?"
LA GM: "That's it." 
Falvey: "That's not going to work." 
*click*

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Dodgers need a 2B, they need right handed power and they need a guy who can hit at the top of the lineup.

 

So is it going to be easier to address those problems with one player? Or with three different players?

Those "needs" seem overly specific for a defending division champ that went deep into the NLCS against the eventual world champ. At least as needs that demand paying a high price to fill. I don't think baseball roster construction is that cut-and-dried.

 

They also have some needs in the outfield, some of which they are looking to fill internally and could also overlap some of the needs you outline above.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I slightly and respectfully disagree. While winning puts people in the seats, in this culture of celeb hero worship there art many young people who only go to the games to see there hero. That doesn't fill stadiums or influence the casual fan, but it does maintain the interest of the youthful fan who attend to see their hero. And to expand on Gouliks point, a bad trade isn't necessarily going to improve the attendance.

Pretty sure Brian Dozier isn't seen as a "hero" by a notable number of fans.  To the extent that he is, or even that he is more generally a familiar face, you have to also consider he has been the beneficiary of Twins marketing.  If he is traded, those marketing efforts would be redirected to Polanco or others and help make them familiar (or even "heroes") to a similar level as Dozier.

[markos]

 

The Dodgers need a 2B, they need right handed power and they need a guy who can hit at the top of the lineup.

 

So is it going to be easier to address those problems with one player? Or with three different players?

 

I'm not sure what will happen here, but this off season a team has to overpay and give up awfully uncomfortable prospects to get what it wants, I don't know why the Dodgers would be the exception. The Dodgers can try to spin this any way they want, but only one of the teams involved is trying to win right now, the only desperation from the Twins side is our posters (me included) who are simply anxious for some action this offseason because we likely won't be getting any this summer.

I think you are overstating the Dodgers need for Dozier. The Dodgers have a very good team, right now, even with their current options at 2B. I think they are clearly the best team in their division, and they are definitely in the top-2 in the National League. In a sense, Dozier is a luxury, not a need. I personally think it makes more sense for a team with a cushion like the Dodgers to hold onto their prospects and see what real needs pop up in July. If they really want to go deep in the playoffs, they would probably be better served picking up another elite reliever at the deadline, or another ace so they don't need to rely on Maeda to pitch more than once a series. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pretty sure Brian Dozier isn't seen as a "hero" by a notable number of fans.  To the extent that he is, or even that he is more generally a familiar face, you have to also consider he has been the beneficiary of Twins marketing.  If he is traded, those marketing efforts would be redirected to Polanco or others and help make them familiar (or even "heroes") to a similar level as Dozier.

Yep. No matter whether Dozier stays or goes it's possible, maybe even likely, he's overshadowed by Sano and/or Buxton in 2017 anyway.

[brvama]

I don't disagree with your point. I was just responding to the comment that winning puts people in the seats not Dozier. There are those that go to games to see players first, albeit maybe not a great contingency of them. And trading Dozier for a bad trade wouldn't likely help the the attendance.

 

Now, to a different point. It's my contention, that teams near or on the cusp of the WS will do whatever they can, within reason, to improve their club to get over the hurdle. In that vein, a light offer from the Dodgers would seem unrealistic if they view 2nd base as a weakness, which I think they do. Thus, for now I have to believe that there is a package of 3-4 on the table.

[Willihammer]

The Dodgers have a strong team, but I was shocked to find just how bad they faired against LHP last year. They were dead last in baseball with a 72 wRC+. They weren't that good against RHP either (98 wRC+).

 

There are only a handful of LH studs around but its not hard to imagine one of them completely shutting down that lineup in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Miller, Chapman, or the Red Sox.

[nicksaviking]

 

Those "needs" seem overly specific for a defending division champ that went deep into the NLCS against the eventual world champ. At least as needs that demand paying a high price to fill. I don't think baseball roster construction is that cut-and-dried.

 

They also have some needs in the outfield, some of which they are looking to fill internally and could also overlap some of the needs you outline above.

 

All teams have holes and I wouldn't try to claim the Dodgers can't compete with some or lots of holes. But typically filling weak spots is what teams do to try to improve and Dozier covers a lot of them. They can walk away, but there's a reason why everyone, including those without a vested interest continue to say Dozier is the best fit for the Dodgers.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Dodgers have a strong team, but I was shocked to find just how bad they faired against LHP last year. They were dead last in baseball with a 72 wRC+. They weren't that good against RHP either (98 wRC+).

 

There are only a handful of LH studs around but its not hard to imagine one of them completely shutting down that lineup in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Miller, Chapman, or the Red Sox.

Their offense was pretty blah, actually.  7th in NL in runs, 98 OPS+ is a bit low for a playoff team.  And they got some huge years from some players, too.  Obviously, their home park suppresses offense a bit but I was still surprised.  With that lineup, I just figured they were better than they really were.

[goulik]

 

Those guys were generally signed/extended for big money when the Twins were competitive. I don't think any of them were approaching FA in team circumstances like Dozier's.

I think it was addressed earlier too, but Dozier and most individual players likely provide very little in terms of attendance or ratings beyond what they contribute to the team's overall record.

 

 

People don't buy tickets to 90 loss teams to watch Brian Dozier. 

Players have fans, they buy their Jerseys and like to see them play. I have had several less fanatical Twins fans than me this fall/early winter tell me "why would they trade their only decent player?" and question whether they would even be interested in going next year if he isn't on the team. Those types of fans would be less likely to go to games without Dozier.

 

This team does not have many good to great players right now. Attendance will be hurt, especially early in the season, by trading their best player because the assumption is we will be bad/worse without him. Also, fans will go to see someone on a 90 loss team who is hitting 40 home runs from 2nd base. Attendance would have been down more without him this past fall.

 

Heck, want evidence? I've gone to games just because Radke or Johan were pitching. I went to games just to see what Thome would do. I drove to Cedar Rapids to see Buxton. People do go just for a person.Yes Spycake, overall record is the key factor but there is a point at which a trade is just not worth it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Dodgers have a strong team, but I was shocked to find just how bad they faired against LHP last year. They were dead last in baseball with a 72 wRC+. They weren't that good against RHP either (98 wRC+).

 

There are only a handful of LH studs around but its not hard to imagine one of them completely shutting down that lineup in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Miller, Chapman, or the Red Sox.

Even on a team level, I'd caution against reading too much into a single season's splits.

 

Justin Turner is a RHB but somehow put up a 77 wRC+ vs LHP last year, after posting a 133 in that split over 2014-2015.  What do you project him to do vs LHP in 2017?

 

Puig was one of their leaders vs LHP in 2016, but he was shuttled to the bench and minors for awhile.  Him returning to a full-time role in 2017 should give them a boost vs LHP, even if he doesn't rebound to his all-star status.

 

Not that it can't be a consideration for them, but it's not clear that they have to make it a major priority right now.  RHB platoon options are probably pretty cheap, and could be even cheaper in July.  (I imagine the 2016 Dodgers would have been better off getting a RHB instead of Josh Reddick at the deadline, as he proceed to post a negative-31 wRC+ in 33 PA vs LHP!)