Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[mazeville]

I'm as strong a backer of a Dozier trade as anyone, but if the Dodgers are only offering DeLeon and nothing else - and there are no other serious partners - then the Twins should just walk away and take their chances.

 

And then I'll chalk the whole thing up to the Dodgers being reticent to let go of their prospects. Can't quite quibble with that, but man do they need a right-handed bat and a second baseman.

[AZTwin]

I'm as strong a backer of a Dozier trade as anyone, but if the Dodgers are only offering DeLeon and nothing else - and there are no other serious partners - then the Twins should just walk away and take their chances.

 

And then I'll chalk the whole thing up to the Dodgers being reticent to let go of their prospects. Can't quite quibble with that, but man do they need a right-handed bat and a second baseman.

It's actually quite ridiculous that they aren't being more aggressive for their window. Not sure I would approve as a fan. I would rather increase my odds at a World Series ring than maybe have 1 of 3 prospects turn out to be something one day. When you consider the bust rate of top prospects it's even more absurd

[mazeville]

 

It's actually quite ridiculous that they aren't being more aggressive for their window. Not sure I would approve as a fan. I would rather increase my odds at a World Series ring than maybe have 1 of 3 prospects turn out to be something one day. When you consider the bust rate of top prospects it's even more absurd

 

Yeah, given the competition in the NL - and particularly the Cubs - you'd really want to shore up that last position, would you not? 

 

They could offer up DeLeon + Stewart + one other prospect and would probably get that done. 

 

Guess we'll know more in a week or so.

[Doomtints]

 

It's actually quite ridiculous that they aren't being more aggressive for their window. Not sure I would approve as a fan. I would rather increase my odds at a World Series ring than maybe have 1 of 3 prospects turn out to be something one day. When you consider the bust rate of top prospects it's even more absurd

 

The Dodgers were 2 games from the world series, losing to a Cubs team that has since lost talent this offseason. They should be confident that they can make it at least as far next year with the same team.

[AZTwin]

The Dodgers were 2 games from the world series, losing to a Cubs team that lost talent this offseason. They should be confident that they can make it farther next year with the same team.

Too bad the Giants improved as well. If they feel they don't need to increase their odds then so be it.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Too bad the Giants improved as well. If they feel they don't need to increase their odds then so be it.

The giants look like they may have gotten worse in LF and while they fixed their problems at closer, the bull pen may actually be worse than last year due to attrition. And they really don't have much in the way of depth. They're a team as constructed are going to have a lot of trouble vs LHP, of which there is a lot in their Division.

You could also make the argument the dodgers under performed due to their record setting injuries sustained last year.

They had 28 players go on the DL including Kershaw for 2 months, and they still won 90 games.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

It's actually quite ridiculous that they aren't being more aggressive for their window. Not sure I would approve as a fan. I would rather increase my odds at a World Series ring than maybe have 1 of 3 prospects turn out to be something one day. When you consider the bust rate of top prospects it's even more absurd

How much dose Dozier increase their odds at winning the world series? That's the balance is increasing your odds by 1-3% worth bidding against yourself? Specifically when you consider Dozier is only going to really help them come Oct. that's what they're actually getting him for since they'll probably win their division with or without him. So if Dozier gets hurt before the playoffs, the question will have to be asked, will they have really increased their odds of winning the world series?

[CiabanItReal]

http://www.truebluela.com/prospects

I found this for anyone who wants to take a look, it's SBNations dodgers blog guide to the dodgers top 2017 prospects.

It looks like they're done in blocks of 31-61 then 30-26 25-21 and an article each for everyone in the top 20 currently their on 16.

Some decent information on guys that would be considered throw in pieces in any trade, guys that the main prospect sources don't really review. But the dodgers system is so deep it might be worth taking a look at.

[Mr. Brooks]

How much dose Dozier increase their odds at winning the world series? That's the balance is increasing your odds by 1-3% worth bidding against yourself? Specifically when you consider Dozier is only going to really help them come Oct. that's what they're actually getting him for since they'll probably win their division with or without him. So if Dozier gets hurt before the playoffs, the question will have to be asked, will they have really increased their odds of winning the world series?

With home field advantage no longer determined by the ASG, I think Dozier has more value in the regular season than you think.

He could be the difference between home field and not.

Also, I wouldn't sleep on the Giants. They don't want to get into a 1 game wild card situation.

[TyTY23]

 

Yeah the teams have been operating on a holiday schedule (more or less shut down) the past week or so, additionally there is not some huge ticking clock on a deal, things typically move slow between the Winter Meetings and the new year.

Should start hearing more updates tomorrow or so. I do think the "negotiation fatigue" could start setting in if they don't come to an agreement these next 7 days or so.

If the Twins "have been operating on a holiday schedule," why would they asked teams to submit their best offers in the middle of the holiday? 

[CiabanItReal]

 

With home field advantage no longer determined by the ASG, I think Dozier has more value in the regular season than you think.
He could be the difference between home field and not.
Also, I wouldn't sleep on the Giants. They don't want to get into a 1 game wild card situation.

But how much more value dose he provide? This is a team that's going to be really competitive with or without him.

The giants don't have the ability to fix their holes at the deadline, and they've proven to be one of the best in those do or die games around, I think they're less worried about it than others.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If the Twins "have been operating on a holiday schedule," why would they asked teams to submit their best offers in the middle of the holiday? 

 

I'm guessing the deadline isn't tomorrow... just sayin...

[Doomtints]

 

I'm guessing the deadline isn't tomorrow... just sayin...

 

Why make an announcement to hurry up and call and then unplug the phone to go on vacation?

[DaveW]

Why make an announcement to hurry up and call and then unplug the phone to go on vacation?

because it's all spin.

 

The idea that the Twins suddenly wouldn't be open to trade Dozier after some random "deadline " is preposterous.

 

It's just spin coming from the Twins to try to get a second team to make a legit offer

[darin617]

The best part of the talk out there is that the Dodgers are offering JDL straight up for Dozier. They will look like complete fools if they do a deal involving JDL+Alvarez+ mystery player or players.

[Doomtints]

 

because it's all spin.

The idea that the Twins suddenly wouldn't be open to trade Dozier after some random "deadline " is preposterous.

It's just spin coming from the Twins to try to get a second team to make a legit offer

 

I agree. Which brings me back to my original points ... this rhetoric was a bad tactic for the Twins. You don't "spin" in public when you make deals with someone -- you treat that person like the most important person in the world while you are on the phone with them. You may drop some bull**** in that process, sure, but you don't do it in front of everybody. A seasoned person is going to see right through this. 

[AZTwin]

I think it's sort of funny how much people under value dozier and over value prospects

[jorgenswest]

It is balancing Dozier's potential value over the next two years and the potential value from prospects over the long term. I am not sure that Dozier is under valued by some but rather the long term is prioritized over the short term.

[TyTY23]

 

I think it's sort of funny how much people under value dozier and over value prospects

Value is all relative. Dozier's value to the Twins means nothing. They will lose with him or without him. Under those circumstances, I saw roll the dice and get what you can for him while his "value" is high or hope he can repeat his second half, and also hope the market to trade him grows (Too many "if" for me).

Also, depending on who you ask Dozier's value to the Dodgers may be lower or higher. However, for whatever is worth, the numbers suggest the Dodgers are going to be really good without him. If the Twins aren't willing to except the Dodger's offer go into the season and make a trade before the trading deadline.    

[AZTwin]

It is balancing Dozier's potential value over the next two years and the potential value from prospects over the long term. I am not sure that Dozier is under valued by some but rather the long term is prioritized over the short term.

Baseball is sometimes hard to visualize worth. Simple question for you; what would be more valuable in a trade, 2 years of Aaron Rodgers going to a playoff contender or 6 years of Paxton lynch going to a bottom dweller?

[TyTY23]

 

Baseball is sometimes hard to visualize worth. Simple question for you; what would be more valuable in a trade, 2 years of Aaron Rodgers going to a playoff contender or 6 years of Paxton lynch going to a bottom dweller?

First, wrong sport for comparison. Second, are you really comparing Rodgers with Dozier?

[AZTwin]

First, wrong sport for comparison. Second, are you really comparing Rodgers with Dozier?

He might as well be. I mean we're talking about a pitcher who projects to be Joe Mays if he's lucky and acting like we're getting justin verlander here. It's insanity

[TyTY23]

 

He might as well be. I mean we're talking about a pitcher who projects to be Joe Mays if he's lucky and acting like we're getting justin verlander here. It's insanity

I was actually referring to your comparison of Rodgers (one of the best, if not the best QB in the league) to Dozier (a really good player but not even a top player at his position). 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

He might as well be. I mean we're talking about a pitcher who projects to be Joe Mays if he's lucky and acting like we're getting justin verlander here. It's insanity

I know De Leon has some question marks, but Joe Mays if he's lucky kind of question marks? 

[USAFChief]

I was actually referring to your comparison of Rodgers (one of the best, if not the best QB in the league) to Dozier (a really good player but not even a top player at his position).

I think his point was, Dozier's value to the Dodgers can't be measured by simply adding up potential WAR, or doing some "surplus value" addition, and proclaiming this or that proposed deal fair/unfair.

 

Two years of Dozier, who perfectly fills a couple glaring holes, is worth more to the Dodgers as they try to win a WS than 6 years of potential from a couple good to very good prospects, neither of which are likely to be difference makers in the next 2 seasons.

 

Rogers was simply an example used.

[AZTwin]

I know De Leon has some question marks, but Joe Mays if he's lucky kind of question marks?

Joe mays was about a 10.6 WAR player in 6 seasons with twins. They're talking about De Leon being possibly a 10.1 WAR in 6 seasons (if he doesn't bust)

[DaveW]

I think it's sort of funny how much people under value dozier and over value prospects

Happens with every fan base

[specialiststeve]

 

I think it's sort of funny how much people under value dozier and over value prospects

 

This is the main snag in the situation. Folks talk about Dozier worth nothing on a losing team as we will lose either way... Plain stupid. The guy is a stud and everyone knows it. Just getting a couple of decent prospects would be going the wrong direction. The Twin's NEED to get potential difference makers and cannot settle for anything less.

 

Hot minor league prospects generally fizzle when they hit the show. That is why we NEED 3 in hopes one actually is a difference maker. If not pass..... Keep Dozier and keep working on improving with him as a centerpiece.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Joe mays was about a 10.6 WAR player in 6 seasons with twins. They're talking about De Leon being possibly a 10.1 WAR in 6 seasons (if he doesn't bust)

Who is they?

[AZTwin]

Who is they?

Everyone in this thread. That's fangraphs projection for his first six seasons