Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[ALessKosherScott]

I don't know how you can say he's a one pitch pitcher. His changeup had a 16.3 SwStr% last year and his slider had a 21 SwStr%. Those are weapons

As a rule of thumb given his better fastball, if Stewart's secondary pitches were any good he'd have posted a higher K% in AAA than De Leon or even Berrios.

 

That of course doesn't mean devolving that this year is outside the realm of possibility.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

You don't seem to be looking at any kind of context with your comparisons. Tapani had a 4.92 ERA and was 2 months from free agency, plus the Twins were a distant last place team. He wound up taking a massive pay cut on a one year FA deal for the following season anyway.

Guthrie had an extra year of control, but he was a middle reliever with a 4.19 career ERA (and was coming off a 6.14 in 1994).

Those two had virtually zero value. The Twins were frankly lucky to get out of ~$1.5 mil in salary obligations.

Like the Kielty-Stewart deal you referenced earlier, it bears absolutely zero resemblance to, or relevance toward, a proposed Dozier swap.

I don't remember those two doing a damn thing for the Dodgers either, but i could be wrong.

[King]

 

Yeah, but that's true with every prospect

I think Bradley more so than most prospects that were of his level (top 10 MLB?). He's a pitcher, so that's already risky, and a quick twitter search shows me that he had shoulder issues in 2015 and elbow issues in 2014, and he has a poor command profile and poor platoon splits. It's just a lot of negatives.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I think Bradley more so than most prospects that were of his level (top 10 MLB?). He's a pitcher, so that's already risky, and a quick twitter search shows me that he had shoulder issues in 2015 and elbow issues in 2014, and he has a poor command profile and poor platoon splits. It's just a lot of negatives.

 

You are right. That said, I like that he threw over 180 innings last year between AAA and the majors and wasn't a complete mess. He has some warts, but he was solid in 2016 overall, at least I think.

[King]

 

As a rule of thumb given his better fastball, if Stewart's secondary pitches were any good he'd have posted a higher K% in AAA than De Leon or even Berrios.

That of course doesn't mean devolving that this year is outside the realm of possibility this year.

Stewart had a 13.8 SwStr% in AA and 12.7 SwStr% in AAA. De Leon had a 13.6 SwStr% in AAA. Berrios had a 12.3 SwStr% in AAA.

 

I'd believe the stats over the scouting reports, at this point, unless something showed up in the profile that said that those are bad pitches (could be possible).

 

[King]

 

You are right. That said, I like that he threw over 180 innings last year between AAA and the majors and wasn't a complete mess. He has some warts, but he was solid in 2016 overall, at least I think.

He did take a step in the right direction last year. It was looking real ugly after 2014 and 2015.

[TyTY23]

Why is TwinsDaily the only site that has JDL and Alvarez as the framework of a trade for Dozier while more credible sources has JDL and Stewart?

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't remember those two doing a damn thing for the Dodgers either, but i could be wrong.

 

Then you clearly don't remember Tapani's masterful two appearances in the 1995 NLDS.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tapanke01.shtml

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Why is TwinsDaily the only site that has JDL and Alvarez as the framework of a trade for Dozier while more credible sources has JDL and Stewart?

 

DaveW started the post with JDL and Alvarez. I haven't seen it elsewhere either, but he has been gun ho with who is available since posting her 3+ weeks ago.

[Squirrel]

Why is TwinsDaily the only site that has JDL and Alvarez as the framework of a trade for Dozier while more credible sources has JDL and Stewart?

Twins Daily doesn't. One of its posters does.

[nicksaviking]

Why is TwinsDaily the only site that has JDL and Alvarez as the framework of a trade for Dozier while more credible sources has JDL and Stewart?

To be clear, Twins Daily and it's owners don't hold onto any kind of speculation.

 

It's just a fan site where our members can post rumors they have heard, read or assumed along with all our hopes and dreams for brighter days and championship trophies.

[ALessKosherScott]

Stewart had a 13.8 SwStr% in AA and 12.7 SwStr% in AAA. De Leon had a 13.6 SwStr% in AAA. Berrios had a 12.3 SwStr% in AAA.

 

I'd believe the stats over the scouting reports, at this point, unless something showed up in the profile that said that those are bad pitches (could be possible).

I believe the stats. But I also believe the totality stats over the components. There is a reason why a mid-90s pitcher like Stewart has a lower K-Rate than two low-90s ones like De Leon and Berrios.

[King]

 

I believe the stats. But I also believe the totality stats over the components. There is a reason why a mid-90s pitcher like Stewart has a lower K-Rate than two low-90s ones like De Leon and Berrios.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. Stewart had a higher K% and SwStr% than both Berrios and De Leon in the MLB last year.

[TyTY23]

I imagine if JDL and Alvarez were really on the table no GM would wait weeks to get this done. If the Twins' GM is pushing for a lot more and they lose this trade in the process I would think the Twins' future can't be too bright. 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Well, if LEN is right and the best offer out there is a one for one swap for De Leon the Twins would be better by keeping Dozier. 

I had a hard time believing Alvarez or Buehler were second pieces of this deal, but I also don't believe it a one for one offer.

[Squirrel]

I imagine if JDL and Alvarez were really on the table no GM would wait weeks to get this done. If the Twins' GM is pushing for a lot more and they lose this trade in the process I would think the Twins' future can't be too bright.

 

Which is why some of doubt that's the case despite the certainty one of our posters is certain of his source.

[TyTY23]

This trade can't be one for one either Dozier is too valuable for that: JDL and Stewart is pretty reasonable, IMO. 

 

Has this poster been right before in trades or free agent signings?

[ewen21]

One thing I am absolutely certain of is, I hope Twins leadership isn't thinking only in terms of "3 seasons down the road."

IMO, that's how you end up the KansasCity Royals, owning one of the best farm systems--and worst actual WL records--in MLB for two decades. Serving as a farm team those teamse trying to win, with that bright future always just over the.horizon.

Three seasons down the road as in the future. As in if we hold Dozier we'd need to resign him 3 seasons down the road. Dozier is a NOW guy and should not be held. We came in last with him and we can come in last without him. We need to examine the market thoroughly and find the best deal in order to surround the young nucleus we now have with younger talent. Not sure why you isolated on that singular phrase.

[Strato Guy]

Let's get this done already. Dozier, Santana and Kintzler for De Leon, Stewart, Buehler and Lux.

[DaveW]

 

Which is why some of doubt that's the case despite the certainty one of our posters is certain of his source.

The funny thing is, the minute the trade happens just like I have said, i'm sure "TwinsDaily" will be thrilled to be included in the national scoop

[DaveW]

 

I imagine if JDL and Alvarez were really on the table no GM would wait weeks to get this done. If the Twins' GM is pushing for a lot more and they lose this trade in the process I would think the Twins' future can't be too bright. 

Or maybe people are just over-rating JDL and Alvarez by a significant margin and are not giving Dozier enough credit.
 

The reality is:

JDL doesn't have some huge upside, he is closer to a middle rotation potential guy then a top of rotation guy. Not bad, but not a centerpiece for a guy who can give you 6+ WAR on a team friendly contract each season for the next two years. People act like there is no way Dozier can do what he did last year, it wasn't luck driven, Home Runs aren't luck driven and he absolutely mashed in a ballpark that is either neutral or slightly pitcher friendly.

 

Alvarez is a nice prospect, but he is far far far away from the majors and is far from a can't miss type guy, plenty of question marks and his 2016 did him no favors IMO. 

So basically you are looking at a couple top 40-75 prospects IMO, that's hardly a package that any team would be foolish to not take.

Now if Urias or Bellingher were on the table, I would be with you, but they aren't. Thus the Dodgers #3 and #4 prospects are included.

[AZTwin]

Or maybe people are just over-rating JDL and Alvarez by a significant margin and are not giving Dozier enough credit.

 

The reality is:

JDL doesn't have some huge upside, he is closer to a middle rotation potential guy then a top of rotation guy. Not bad, but not a centerpiece for a guy who can give you 6+ WAR on a team friendly contract each season for the next two years. People act like there is no way Dozier can do what he did last year, it wasn't luck driven, Home Runs aren't luck driven and he absolutely mashed in a ballpark that is either neutral or slightly pitcher friendly.

 

Alvarez is a nice prospect, but he is far far far away from the majors and is far from a can't miss type guy, plenty of question marks and his 2016 did him no favors IMO.

 

So basically you are looking at a couple top 40-75 prospects IMO, that's hardly a package that any team would be foolish to not take.

Now if Urias or Bellingher were on the table, I would be with you, but they aren't. Thus the Dodgers #3 and #4 prospects are included.

Agree with this 100%. I would love to get Keibert Ruiz as a 4th type

[TyTY23]

DaveW, I'm just skeptical about the Dodgers including a prospect in Alvarez, that they have not just invested time in developing. They basically forfeited the next 2 years in signing blue chip international players. They basically didn't get into a bidding war with the BoSox in signing Moncada. Including Alvarez is just not giving up a players that "might" be good/great/bust. This basically goes against the philosophy that the Dodger recently have created. 

[TyTY23]

 

The funny thing is, the minute the trade happens just like I have said, i'm sure "TwinsDaily" will be thrilled to be included in the national scoop

In respect to you and your source, didn't the source also tell you this deal would get done weeks ago?

[USAFChief]

Three seasons down the road as in the future. As in if we hold Dozier we'd need to resign him 3 seasons down the road. Dozier is a NOW guy and should not be held. We came in last with him and we can come in last without him. We need to examine the market thoroughly and find the best deal in order to surround the young nucleus we now have with younger talent. Not sure why you isolated on that singular phrase.

If we're going to come in last without him, I really hate the trade.

 

If trading Dozier is indeed the only means to get better, that's a really strong argument that the Twins need to be absolutely certain about the return...it's their only shot. It's certainly NOT an argument for get something, anything, done NOW.

 

But trading Dozier isn't the only path forward. At least I hope not, or we've got bigger problems.

 

Trading Dozier is a reasonable plan--for the right return--but it's not the only reasonable plan.

[specialiststeve]

I imagine if JDL and Alvarez were really on the table no GM would wait weeks to get this done. If the Twins' GM is pushing for a lot more and they lose this trade in the process I would think the Twins' future can't be too bright.

Respectfully I believe you are 100% wrong. With what was given for Eaton the "starting Point" has to be 2 of the 3 top pitching prospects PLUS one offensive player. If that is not on the table the Twin's management HAS to walk away. This is a GOOD thing as if they set the precedence of "giving away" all star players for less than top dollar that is what they will be getting in the future.

 

When shopping you have to be willing to walk away if you want to get the best price. If we don't get what we feel is a GREAT deal we walk away. We have the best asset in the deal BY FAR. If not getting an Eaton type of deal we keep Dozier and move on.

 

We are not dealing from a point of need as we have what other's want.... we need to remember that. History of hot minor league prospects are about 1 in 3 actually pan out to be decent. Thus we NEED 3 top end prospects at minimum in hopes 1 actually is a difference maker.

[Squirrel]

If we're going to come in last without him, I really hate the trade.

If trading Dozier is indeed the only means to get better, that's a really strong argument that the Twins need to be absolutely certain about the return...it's their only shot. It's certainly NOT an argument for get something, anything, done NOW.

But trading Dozier isn't the only path forward. At least I hope not, or we've got bigger problems.

Trading Dozier is a reasonable plan--for the right return--but it's not the only reasonable plan.

CONCUR!

[ewen21]

If we're going to come in last without him, I really hate the trade.

If trading Dozier is indeed the only means to get better, that's a really strong argument that the Twins need to be absolutely certain about the return...it's their only shot. It's certainly NOT an argument for get something, anything, done NOW.

But trading Dozier isn't the only path forward. At least I hope not, or we've got bigger problems.

Trading Dozier is a reasonable plan--for the right return--but it's not the only reasonable plan.

I think the market has spoken. I think that DeLeon along with Alvarez (or Stewart) is enough to make deal

 

You don't need to agree. I'm ok with that.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Then you clearly don't remember Tapani's masterful two appearances in the 1995 NLDS.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tapanke01.shtml

I'm glad that I had blacked that out.  The 5+ ERA in the regular season is what i remembered.

[dnosler]

Alvarez is a nice prospect, but he is far far far away from the majors and is far from a can't miss type guy, plenty of question marks and his 2016 did him no favors IMO.

I'm sorry, the last part of this statement makes no sense.

 

For a guy who signed in 2015 and didn't pitch until 2016 (player dev's decision), I'm not sure how his pitching (well) while showing an elite fastball, flashing a plus-plus slider and some feel for a changeup "did him no favors."