Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[laloesch]

 

Thing is, man, if they are getting those two (Alvarez and De Leon) they shouldn't need a 3rd piece at all. That's what I am not understanding.

 

If you believe Dave's source the Twins have "dug in their heels" on a third piece and have turned down five players the Dodgers have offered up.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

If you believe Dave's source the Twins have "dug in their heels" on a third piece and have turned down five players the Dodgers have offered up.  

 

I don't know what or who to believe. I want the best deal possible to happen, and I'm afraid it is taking too long.

 

That said, in my mind, getting Alvarez at all, along with De Leon, is already a steal.

[Loosey]

 

If it hasn't been completed by now, I have my doubts. Dozier is a luxury addition for the Dodgers. IMO they don't need him as much as the Twins need prospects.

It's a long poker game, and Falvey doesn't appear to want to fold his hand. Even though the Dodgers have the advantage.

I think the Dodgers know they are the only team really in on Dozier.  They know they have the upper hand.  The Twins want to make it appear there are other suitors.  At some point one team will cave, they both have the same wants.  It just is a matter of time now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I think the Dodgers know they are the only team really in on Dozier.  They know they have the upper hand.  The Twins want to make it appear there are other suitors.  At some point one team will cave, they both have the same wants.  It just is a matter of time now.

 

I'm fine with the twins even "caving" here, for whatever that is worth. The "ok" deal now is going to be better than the best deal in June. And De Leon plus Alvarez (if that is on the table) is a WOW deal for me.

[Loosey]

 

I'm fine with the twins even "caving" here, for whatever that is worth. The "ok" deal now is going to be better than the best deal in June. And De Leon plus Alvarez (if that is on the table) is a WOW deal for me.

I agree.  I think Falvey and Levine know that as well.  But the season is 4 months away, spring training 2 months.  They don't need to take an offer they don't want right now.  If we get into January and February, then there could be some urgency and "caving" taking place.  

 

The best thing the Twins can do is drum up another team that is interested in the next few months and cause the Dodgers to cave.

[laloesch]

 

I'm fine with the twins even "caving" here, for whatever that is worth. The "ok" deal now is going to be better than the best deal in June. And De Leon plus Alvarez (if that is on the table) is a WOW deal for me.

 

Personally i think the Twins are pressing their luck doing this.  

 

An extended break over the holidays could change thoughts and attitudes and torpedo the deal.  The Dodgers I'm sure have limited patience and could throw up their hands and walk away while still being a good team next season.  The Twins don't have that luxury.  Its clear the advantage goes to LA on that one.  Now it's true the Twins don't "have to" deal Brian Dozier, but the truth is if they want to significantly improve the team he needs to be dealt at maximum value, which is now.    

 

You take De Leon and Alvarez and maybe a lesser prospect and thank your lucky stars and get ready for the season.  It would be fantastic if they got more to bolster the ranks, but sometimes a good deal is too good to turn down especially when your this bad.  

[Steve Lein]

 

I know he's no longer a young player (turned 30 in July) but what about Scott Van Slyke as a 4th player.  He doesn't play a ton for the Dodgers and has good splits against LHP as a ptotential RH combo with Rosario or Kepler. 

 

I would love to have Van Slyke on this team.

[Intramural Legend]

 

I'm fine with the twins even "caving" here, for whatever that is worth. The "ok" deal now is going to be better than the best deal in June. And De Leon plus Alvarez (if that is on the table) is a WOW deal for me.

 

I love that Falvey isn't caving.  The Dodgers are looking to win now, so I don't see how the team with the most coveted player wouldn't have the upper hand.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I love that Falvey isn't caving.  The Dodgers are looking to win now, so I don't see how the team with the most coveted player wouldn't have the upper hand.  

 

I think everyone has a different view of what caving means.

 

To me, if they are ending up with De Leon plus a few other good pieces for a guy who won't be around in 2 years, that isn't really caving. Does that make sense?

[doscinco]

Rosenthal writes a story about the Dodgers prospects and the Twins possibility overplaying their hand, while Heyman keeps trying to drug up fake interest from the Giants to get the Dodgers to pay up. We're at the point where both teams are using national writers to get the other side to budge.

[jud6312]

I'm all for Falvey holding out until he gets exactly what he wants ... or at least something close to it.

 

Yes, I'd LOVE to see him moved for young, high-end pitching, and think that's what they should do. However, the worst case scenario is they end up hanging onto Dozier going into the season. There are worse things.

 

The main reason I like it is that it shows the young guy knows what he has, knows what he wants and isn't going to settle. It's a good precedent to set going forward.

[mazeville]

 

I'm all for Falvey holding out until he gets exactly what he wants ... or at least something close to it.

 

Yes, I'd LOVE to see him moved for young, high-end pitching, and think that's what they should do. However, the worst case scenario is they end up hanging onto Dozier going into the season. There are worse things.

 

The main reason I like it is that it shows the young guy knows what he has, knows what he wants and isn't going to settle. It's a good precedent to set going forward.

 

Yeah, there's no reason to hurry. Dozier is the best match for them and everybody knows it.

 

I'd imagine they do this shortly after the holidays, though. Still makes more sense to trade Dozier than to not trade him. And there's very little buzz connecting the Dodgers with any other team.

[Han Joelo]

Count me as one who also admires Falvey's backbone.  Those third pieces…sometimes they turn out to be Liriano's.  Funny trade to think about really; if Liriano hadn't been included I think we'd still look back at that as a good deal.  

[markos]

 

I love that Falvey isn't caving.  The Dodgers are looking to win now, so I don't see how the team with the most coveted player wouldn't have the upper hand.  

My fear is that the Dodgers will decide that their team is good enough to start the upcoming season, and will hold onto their prospects to potentially upgrade their team at the deadline. They don't need Dozier right now, in the sense that they are already the best team in their division on paper. They don't know exactly what injuries or performance dropoffs will occur between now and July. Maybe Kershaw will get hurt again, or Jensen will blow out his elbow, and all of a sudden they need to find pitching. Or maybe Grandal tears an ACL and they need to trade for a catcher. Or Pederson takes a major step back and they need an centerfielder. If anything happens, they will be in a much better position to acquire a difference maker at the deadline if they hold onto De Leon and Alvarez.

 

Further, they can potentially still upgrade 2B without Dozier AND keep their prospects. It is possible that veterans will lower their FA prices as the off-season progresses - the Dodgers could put together a nice little platoon with Utley/Drew and Aaron Hill for pretty cheap. That isn't a terrible platoon, probably 50-75% of Dozier's production, and better than what they have. And they keep the flexibility and future value.

 

The Twins have the advantage that they have the best player, but the Dodgers have the advantage that they don't NEED to make a deal, that they have secondary options that aren't terrible, and that they can always use the prospects they keep to improve their team in a different way later.

[Gheggs08]

Falvey & co waiting isn't necessarily a bad thing, IMO. The NL crown is basically going to be a race between the Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nats, and Dodgers. We have no idea if/when one of the teams besides LA could make a blockbuster deal to improve their team even more so than what we have already seen. If something like this were to happen it would make Dozier even more valuable to LA. I don't think we need to panic that a deal isn't done until early February 

[d-mac]

 

My fear is that the Dodgers will decide that their team is good enough to start the upcoming season, and will hold onto their prospects to potentially upgrade their team at the deadline. They don't need Dozier right now, in the sense that they are already the best team in their division on paper. They don't know exactly what injuries or performance dropoffs will occur between now and July. Maybe Kershaw will get hurt again, or Jensen will blow out his elbow, and all of a sudden they need to find pitching. Or maybe Grandal tears an ACL and they need to trade for a catcher. Or Pederson takes a major step back and they need an centerfielder. If anything happens, they will be in a much better position to acquire a difference maker at the deadline if they hold onto De Leon and Alvarez.

 

Further, they can potentially still upgrade 2B without Dozier AND keep their prospects. It is possible that veterans will lower their FA prices as the off-season progresses - the Dodgers could put together a nice little platoon with Utley/Drew and Aaron Hill for pretty cheap. That isn't a terrible platoon, probably 50-75% of Dozier's production, and better than what they have. And they keep the flexibility and future value.

 

The Twins have the advantage that they have the best player, but the Dodgers have the advantage that they don't NEED to make a deal, that they have secondary options that aren't terrible, and that they can always use the prospects they keep to improve their team in a different way later.

 

The Dodgers definitely have the leverage at this point. Count me too as someone who is worried the Twins will overplay their hand. Based on our situation, if we don't trade Dozier while his value at his highest it's a failure, and I think the Dodgers know that as well. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

The Dodgers definitely have the leverage at this point. Count me too as someone who is worried the Twins will overplay their hand. Based on our situation, if we don't trade Dozier while his value at his highest it's a failure, and I think the Dodgers know that as well. 

 

But, to the Twins credit, Dozier is the largest upgrade for the Dodgers at a position that they need an upgrade, and also the most easily attainable upgrade as far as prospects are concerned.

 

Yes, they could platoon and get something out of 2nd base, but it certainly wouldn't be the production that Dozier can bring.

 

I don't want this lasting a LOT longer (I wish it were done already) but the Dodgers moving on means that they are getting a lesser piece at 2nd base. That is where the Twins have some leverage still.

 

Kinsler means an extension, and Forsythe means position player prospects (if you think they are getting Forsythe for less than Bellinger, I don't know what to tell you.) And, for obvious reasons, the Dodgers don't want to trade Bellinger.

 

Let's make this happen and move on!

[doscinco]

But, to the Twins credit, Dozier is the largest upgrade for the Dodgers at a position that they need an upgrade, and also the most easily attainable upgrade as far as prospects are concerned.

 

Yes, they could platoon and get something out of 2nd base, but it certainly wouldn't be the production that Dozier can bring.

 

I don't want this lasting a LOT longer (I wish it were done already) but the Dodgers moving on means that they are getting a lesser piece at 2nd base. That is where the Twins have some leverage still.

 

Kinsler means an extension, and Forsythe means position player prospects if you think they are getting Forsythe for less than Bellinger, I don't know what to tell you.) And, for obvious reasons, the Dodgers don't want to trade Bellinger.

 

Let's make this happen and move on!

Their search for a 2B is not limited to Dozier, Kinsler, Forsythe or even this offseason. They can go into he season with a platoon or young player at 2B and upgrade that position at the deadline, such as the Cubs getting Chapman or Royals acquiring Cueto/Zobrist.

 

On the other hand, I think every in the game knows the Twins have been desperate for good young pitching for like a decade.

 

I don't think either team has the leverage, but Dodgers can play the long game. I don't think the Twins can.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Their search for a 2B is not limited to Dozier, Kinsler, Forsythe or even this offseason. They can go into he season with a platoon or young player at 2B and upgrade that position at the deadline, such as the Cubs getting Chapman or Royals acquiring Cueto/Zobrist.

On the other hand, I think every in the game knows the Twins have been desperate for good young pitching for like a decade.

I don't think either team has the leverage, but Dodgers can play the long game. I don't think the Twins can.

 

Maybe you are right. It's hard to say what has actually been discussed. All we have are rumors and conjecture. It certainly is fun to talk about.

[goulik]

So I decided to do a quick search and found this list of top 100 Dodgers prospects from March of last year. I Would love to see a more recent list to peruse but despite all the posts to this subject, no-one else has thrown up an easy link. So, peruse this list and tell me who you would want? 

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/03/08/2016-dodgers-top-100-prospects-the-top-10/

 

or use this list of mid season top 30. I just don't know if the dodgers are going to give up a third top 30 though...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/07/11/2016-dodgers-prospects-midseason-top-30-update/

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

So I decided to do a quick search and found this list of top 100 Dodgers prospects from March of last year. I Would love to see a more recent list to peruse but despite all the posts to this subject, no-one else has thrown up an easy link. So, peruse this list and tell me who you would want? 

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/03/08/2016-dodgers-top-100-prospects-the-top-10/

 

or use this list of mid season top 30. I just don't know if the dodgers are going to give up a third top 30 though...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/07/11/2016-dodgers-prospects-midseason-top-30-update/

 

Dodgers top 30 prospects in mlb pipeline

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

 

Fangraphs top 21 Dodgers prospects, 11/6/16

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

 

[Vanimal46]

I love that Falvey isn't caving. The Dodgers are looking to win now, so I don't see how the team with the most coveted player wouldn't have the upper hand.

Think of the Dodgers as a movie theater. They already have the iMax 3D screen (Kershaw), the best surround system (Seager, Peterson, farm system) and decent seats.

 

The Twins have those reclining leather chairs (Dozier) to make the Dodgers a go-to theater. Do they need those reclining leather chairs? Not really. Everything else is top notch.

[doscinco]

This is probably the best up to date list:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

[Vanimal46]

The Dodgers have the upper hand in this poker game, AND the Twins are taking on the risk if they're keeping Dozier. Bad Dozier is available at a moment's notice. Unless there's a major injury at 2B, the trade market for him isn't changing.

 

If they hold onto this hand, and bad Dozier shows up in April, I'm going to be quite upset that they didn't make a deal.

[goulik]

 

Dodgers top 30 prospects in mlb pipeline

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

 

Fangraphs top 21 Dodgers prospects, 11/6/16

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/

Thank you for sharing those as well.. I guess Those would be better than the mid season top 30 I put up but I don't think we will get more than DeLeon and Alvarez off those lists unless Alvarez is removed from the trade and replaced by another. I was more searching for opinions on prospects 31-100 that would make up a desired 3rd or 4th. I would consider a lottery ticket SS or C or a close outfielder that would be an upgrade over what we already have... Don't know if that exists but who is the 3rd/4th we are after?

[gunnarthor]

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Count me amongst those solidly in the "wait for what you really want" camp.  The new front office knows that all other teams are watching to see if they fold in their first big test.  No need to put your legs in the air so quickly because you are afraid that your trading partner is going to go away.  You don't get what you want and it sends a bad message for the future.

 

In my long experience (obviously not in professional sports) the characteristics that all the best traders have are conviction and patience.  I am comfortable waiting this out.

[Squirrel]

 

The Dodgers definitely have the leverage at this point. Count me too as someone who is worried the Twins will overplay their hand. Based on our situation, if we don't trade Dozier while his value at his highest it's a failure, and I think the Dodgers know that as well. 

I don't think it will be a failure at all. If they don't trade him it means they didn't get what they think he is worth. We keep hearing that it's DeLeon and Alvarez, but that is only rumor at this point. Could it be true? Sure. Could it not be true? Sure. No way we'll ever know for certain. But I'm hearing a lot of doubt in this thread as to which team has the leverage. If the Twins don't have the leverage we aren't going to get back what we need or want, certainly not both DeLeon and Alvarez in that case, and if we went through with a trade with that in mind and without those pieces, then it would be a failure and I'd be disappointed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm all for Falvey holding out until he gets exactly what he wants ... or at least something close to it.

 

Yes, I'd LOVE to see him moved for young, high-end pitching, and think that's what they should do. However, the worst case scenario is they end up hanging onto Dozier going into the season. There are worse things.

 

The main reason I like it is that it shows the young guy knows what he has, knows what he wants and isn't going to settle. It's a good precedent to set going forward.

I don't know, sounds like the kind of thing we'd lambast TR about, for not being realistic/aggressive enough (in fact we probably did, on a smaller scale with Plouffe last offseason).

[jimmer]

What do we get from Dozier when he walks away as a FA in two years because we couldn't get what he was worth in a trade (understanding that the market decides what a player is worth, not the POBO or GM of the team that has the player)?

 

What do we get if he goes back to being regular Dozier and then we try and trade him with only one year left on his contract (one year at 9M versus two years at 15M after a peak year)?