Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[drjim]

I doubt of Dozier would go for that - especially without a no trade clause.

I'd consider a no trade if he took it.

[Vanimal46]

I offhand mentioned it earlier, but if the Dodgers won't meet the price, what if the Twins extended Dozier?

Would adding 3/60 to the current contract be enough?

Would time out nicely, big money kicks in when Mauer comes off the books and contract would end right when Sano and Buxton hit their free agent years and would theoretically start to get expensive. Opens a nice 5 year window if they can sort out their pitching.

For Dozier, why not wait until free agency and get 5/100 or more? A big money team who missed out on Machado and Harper may drastically overpay for him.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

That's what I was saying.  They have to avoid making a bad deal and looking like pushovers.

 

At the same time, Dozier needs to go.  So they need to find a way to make it work. 

You say Dozier needs to go. At all costs? What if the Twins FO cannot get a decent offer for him? Then What? 

 

I say IF they trade Dozier, it must be for quality pieces – two near MLB-ready SP.  If they cannot get that – from the Dodgers or elsewhere - they are better off keeping Dozier.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would hope so. Dozier is worth it. Proven durable 2B, who hits and hits for power? Right handed - which is what the Dodgers need? Absolutely well worth it.

 

Dozier's value is high right now – but could get even higher. The Dodgers are looking for a right-handed 2B who can hit. Dozier more than exceeds that profile. He hits with considerable power. And he plays a very good 2B. 

 

I think it's the Dodgers who are more desperate to get Dozier than it is the Twins who desperately need to trade him for prospects. 

 

Given that 2016 was almost certainly Dozier's career year and he's entering his 30s, the odds of his value getting "higher" is zero.

 

If we retain him our best hope is that he can continue to approximate his career averages as he ages and that he and his agent can be duped into signing a 1 or 2 year extension at a roughly similar price.

 

So...yeah....I wouldn't bet on that.  For this team to have the best chance to turn the corner, they need to find a way to make this work.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You say Dozier needs to go. At all costs? What if the Twins FO cannot get a decent offer for him? Then What? 

 

I say IF they trade Dozier, it must be for quality pieces – two near MLB-ready SP.  If they cannot get that – from the Dodgers or elsewhere - they are better off keeping Dozier.

 

Of course it has to be for quality pieces.  It sounds like that is on the table by most accounts, time to close that deal  by figuring out the rest of it.  But it does need to happen.

 

Dozier's value will not be higher and any delay in moving him hurts the future.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would hope so. Dozier is worth it. Proven durable 2B, who hits and hits for power? Right handed - which is what the Dodgers need? Absolutely well worth it.

 

Dozier's value is high right now – but could get even higher. The Dodgers are looking for a right-handed 2B who can hit. Dozier more than exceeds that profile. He hits with considerable power. And he plays a very good 2B. 

 

I think it's the Dodgers who are more desperate to get Dozier than it is the Twins who desperately need to trade him for prospects. 

 

How is Dozier's value going to get higher?

[gunnarthor]

 

But Dozier is gone in only 2 years. You've got to take a realistic assessment of our odds of contending the next 2 years. It's not impossible, but it is unlikely, particularly in 2017.

And besides, most of the prospects we have been discussing could be ready to produce in MLB within 2 years. If De Leon takes 2017 to adjust, who cares?

Well, I'm the low guy on De Leon here.  I'm terrified of pitchers linked to shoulder soreness.  I don't know what a fair value for Dozier is but I think it's a lot closer to the return the Brewers got for Gomez/Fiers.  

 

But if the FO doesn't get a fair offer for him, they can keep him and try and trade him later, if need be.  i don't see the point of trading Dozier simply because he'll be gone in two years.  We don't have to punt on next season for a start and moving him just to move him makes us worse, not better.  

 

[gunnarthor]

I guess we should make a poll but do people who think we should trade Dozier accept the De Leon/Stewart/AAAA piece that is rumored to be on the table by Wolfson?  Assuming that's the best offer we can get from the Dodgers.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Twins win 25% more games than last year......they win 73....are people here really suggesting winning 88+ is realistic?

[Vanimal46]

For those that prefer keeping Dozier if the Twins aren't blown away, what's the end goal? Pitching doesn't appear to be improving for 2017... I'm skeptical to say the least that Dozier would fetch MORE during the season, unless he goes Ruthian with 40 HRs by the July deadline.

 

Do we really expect the Twins to extend Dozier at the end of his contract? The QO reward is worse now. I forget what it is under the new CBA, but it's no longer a 1st round pick. I guess I'm just confused what the benefit is of keeping him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If the Twins win 25% more games than last year......they win 73....are people here really suggesting winning 88+ is realistic.

 

To make the playoffs next year would require a near historic turnaround.  Like, happened less than three times in recorded baseball history, historic.

 

None of us want to give him up for a bag of peanuts, but whatever is out there now is the best it will ever be for Dozier.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Of course it has to be for quality pieces.  It sounds like that is on the table by most accounts, time to close that deal  by figuring out the rest of it.  But it does need to happen.

 

Dozier's value will not be higher and any delay in moving him hurts the future.

I'm saying WHAT IF they don't get what they want for Dozier. Sometimes teams can get obstinate and not see the value in the other team's player(s). Or they do see the value, but don't see how the pieces would fit. Or maybe the Dodgers just are not willing to trade two SP and prospects for Dozier. 

 

In that case, I'd move on. See what other teams want to give. Keep him into spring training. Keep him for the start of the year. His value is there. Clearly the Dodgers want him, but will they pay the price?

 

I might want a new car. I might see the one I want, and agree that it's worth a certain value. But that doesn't mean I'll necessarily do the deal. 

 

If, as i suspect, it's the Dodgers driving this, what more are they willing to give?

 

If it's the Twins driving this, what more would they give, or what less would the Dodgers be willing to accept?

 

There are lots of points in negotiations. This could still take a while.

 

 

[AZTwin]

For those that prefer keeping Dozier if the Twins aren't blown away, what's the end goal? Pitching doesn't appear to be improving for 2017... I'm skeptical to say the least that Dozier would fetch MORE during the season, unless he goes Ruthian with 40 HRs by the July deadline.

 

Do we really expect the Twins to extend Dozier at the end of his contract? The QO reward is worse now. I forget what it is under the new CBA, but it's no longer a 1st round pick. I guess I'm just confused what the benefit is of keeping him.

Dozier selling tickets and merchandise and winning games for two years benefits us more than a couple AAAA guys that are out of baseball in two years

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

How is Dozier's value going to get higher?

He could have an awesome spring, or an awesome start to the new season.  If he starts out hitting like he was at the end of 2016, his value will go up.

[Vanimal46]

Dozier selling tickets and merchandise and winning games for two years benefits us more than a couple AAAA guys that are out of baseball in two years

Sigh... Dozier or any one player doesn't sell tickets. Winning does. If people bought tickets for Dozier, Target Field would have been sold out every game in the 2nd half last year.

[Vanimal46]

He could have an awesome spring, or an awesome start to the new season.  If he starts out hitting like he was at the end of 2016, his value will go up.

His value will go up with 1.5 years of control compared to 2?

[gunnarthor]

 

If the Twins win 25% more games than last year......they win 73....are people here really suggesting winning 88+ is realistic?

No one has suggested 88 wins.

 

They won 59, they had a pyth of 66 and base runs of 71.  Early projections have them at 75 for next year.  So, no, I don't think they'll win 88 but they could be around .500 now and make another jump the following year.  It really depends on how fast those young former prospects play well and how the FO improves the pitching staff. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

For those that prefer keeping Dozier if the Twins aren't blown away, what's the end goal? Pitching doesn't appear to be improving for 2017... I'm skeptical to say the least that Dozier would fetch MORE during the season, unless he goes Ruthian with 40 HRs by the July deadline.

Do we really expect the Twins to extend Dozier at the end of his contract? The QO reward is worse now. I forget what it is under the new CBA, but it's no longer a 1st round pick. I guess I'm just confused what the benefit is of keeping him.

Dozier has value –whether he's playing for the Twins or as a trade chip. If you enter negotiations saying "we MUST trade him" you immediately lower your negotiating position.  If we don't trade him now, he will continue to contribute for the Twins. Other teams may come around. In any case, you still have a player.

 

If he dips back into his average production, for example, we could still go back to the Dodgers - or another team that's made an offer – and ask if they're still interested.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No one has suggested 88 wins.

 

They won 59, they had a pyth of 66 and base runs of 71.  Early projections have them at 75 for next year.  So, no, I don't think they'll win 88 but they could be around .500 now and make another jump the following year.  It really depends on how fast those young former prospects play well and how the FO improves the pitching staff.

 

All of which is aided by trading Dozier.  Getting good pitching out of this deal is the only way to think of 2018 as a real thing.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

His value will go up with 1.5 years of control compared to 2?

Depending on the market, yes, it's possible. It's possible the Twins get even more for him at the trade deadline.

[TheLeviathan]

 

He could have an awesome spring, or an awesome start to the new season.  If he starts out hitting like he was at the end of 2016, his value will go up.

 

An awesome spring?  C'mon now.  

 

I agree, we shouldn't take a bad deal, but we should be making it a priority to make this deal happen.  Not for scrubs, but the deal has to happen.  I consider going into 2017 with Dozier on the team a failure to negotiate what we needed.

[Vanimal46]

Dozier has value –whether he's playing for the Twins or as a trade chip. If you enter negotiations saying "we MUST trade him" you immediately lower your negotiating position.  If we don't trade him now, he will continue to contribute for the Twins. Other teams may come around. In any case, you still have a player.

 

If he dips back into his average production, for example, we could still go back to the Dodgers - or another team that's made an offer – and ask if they're still interested.

And in the case you made in the 2nd paragraph, that team will say we offered you De Leon/Stewart/x before. Now it's Stewart and x. We lost value because he dipped back to his career norms, and 6 months of control on his contract.

[Vanimal46]

Depending on the market, yes, it's possible. It's possible the Twins get even more for him at the trade deadline.

Anything is possible. What's more likely to happen? Him increasing or decreasing his value? I'm leaning towards the latter, clearly.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dozier would have to challenge Bond's single season HR record in the first half to have more value than he does now. It's significantly more likely that he has less value come July than he does right now, especially I might add if De Leon is suddenly a mainstay in LA and Alvarez is lights out in high A. I'm not saying trade him to trade him, I want value, but right now, Dozier's value is far far far far far more likely to go down than up.  I'd add that if he picks up right where he left off, I'd be very skeptical that his value would rise.

[DodgerFan1234]

I don't think Dave has been unambiguous. He's been saying pretty much the same thing from the beginning, the only 'off' thing so far has been the timing of it. If you want to be skeptical, that's fine. I'm skeptical about Dave's source, too, in that I wonder if Dave is being told accurate information, but not that Dave hasn't told us what he's been told.

??

 

I thought my post was pretty benign. The few prior posts over the last day were referencing Heyman's report yesterday which seemed to questionAlvarez as a piece. DaveW has been unwavering about DeLeon + Alvarez + some 3rd and/or 4th piece. If he hasn't been unambiguous, that means he must have been ambiguous. I think that's 100% accurate. Do you not know what unambiguous means or are we just trying to be argumentative for arguments sake?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guess we should make a poll but do people who think we should trade Dozier accept the De Leon/Stewart/AAAA piece that is rumored to be on the table by Wolfson? Assuming that's the best offer we can get from the Dodgers.

I'd be pretty close to taking that (unless a majority of my scouts shared your pessimistic take on De Leon or something). Obviously the more interesting that third piece, the better.

[ashbury]

Do you not know what unambiguous means or are we just trying to be argumentative for arguments sake?

Moderator's note: ChiTown's was not the only post in this thread containing double, or even triple, negatives leading me to wonder if the writer simply miscounted. When in doubt, just ask for clarification, without ascribing motives and without upping the wattage. Personally, I just move on.

[AZTwin]

De Leon could blow up and regress to his mean too. Maybe then we wouldn't even want him. And the person arguing that dozier doesn't sell tickets or merchandise, just lol. Yes he does. Any player contributes to that

[TheLeviathan]

 

De Leon could blow up and regress to his mean too. Maybe then we wouldn't even want him. And the person arguing that dozier doesn't sell tickets or merchandise, just lol. Yes he does. Any player contributes to that

 

Winning is all that matters in any real way.  Individual players sell very little relative to a major league team's revenue stream.  

[gunnarthor]

 

And in the case you made in the 2nd paragraph, that team will say we offered you De Leon/Stewart/x before. Now it's Stewart and x. We lost value because he dipped back to his career norms, and 6 months of control on his contract.

Well, if the Dodgers are offering 60 cents on the dollar now, maybe they'll offer 75 cents at the deadline so it would even out.