Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Willihammer]

Considering Stewart converted from infielder to pitcher in 2014, I think he's on an impressive trajectory.

 

If it were me, I'd ask for Stewart, Alvarez, plus the third piece they want. Let the Dodgers keep De Leon. YMMV.

 

edit:2014 not 2015

[gunnarthor]

 

This do anything for anyone: Willie Calhoun, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield and Brock Stewart in exchange for Brian Dozier and (maybe) Kintzler.

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

That's more quantity over quality but it's close.  Sheffield is a bullpen guy.  I guess it depends on what you think of Calhoun.  I don't think he's a good fit for us but who knows.  In any event, I would think that deal would get accepted.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Considering Stewart converted from infielder to pitcher in 2015, I think he's on an impressive trajectory.

 

If it were me, I'd ask for Stewart, Alvarez, plus the third piece they want. Let the Dodgers keep De Leon. YMMV.

 

I would be ok with this approach, if they feel Alvarez is the real deal. I am not certain that JDL is better than Stewart, because results do matter....

[jud6312]

 

That is right on the border for me.....but if the Twins think De Leon is about Ervin Santana, I do it. Sheffiled moves to the bullpen, and is up fast. Could maybe be a closer type, imo.

 

I'd hope Calhoun hits the bleep out of the ball, and you flip him for someone that is faster than a Molina brother....

I'd love to see what they rated on the 20-80 scale for speed. And LeCroy. Possibly a 20 with laughing emoji next to it?

[jud6312]

 

That's more quantity over quality but it's close.  Sheffield is a bullpen guy.  I guess it depends on what you think of Calhoun.  I don't think he's a good fit for us but who knows.  In any event, I would think that deal would get accepted.  

I think Dodger Blue included Sheffield under the guise of potential for front end of rotation. I don't think anything else I've seen truly believes that.

 

Also not a big fan of quantity.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Stewart is lacking in pedigree. I haven't seen a scouting report yet that pegs him as more than a #4/#5 back-end starter. There is some belief that he could be more given he hasn't pitched all that much yet (did not pitch until he was a pro), but there's a lot of things beyond what he does now that would have to develop more for that to happen.

 

From BA in June when he was called up (as an example of one such scouting report): "Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup."

 

Think Kevin Slowey as far as what they did in the minors and what they may do in the majors.

The catch is Stewart has a better fastball than Slowey, and Slowey with a better fastball might have been a thing

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Considering Stewart converted from infielder to pitcher in 2014, I think he's on an impressive trajectory.

 

If it were me, I'd ask for Stewart, Alvarez, plus the third piece they want. Let the Dodgers keep De Leon. YMMV.

 

edit:2014 not 2015

The Dodgers also converted Kenley Jansen to closer from another position so whatever their secret sauce is, I'm buying.

[AZTwin]

This do anything for anyone: Willie Calhoun, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield and Brock Stewart in exchange for Brian Dozier and (maybe) Kintzler.

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

No. admittably I'm not as high on de Leon as most but even then in that trade he is the only non for sure bust. Calhoun is worthless in any trade offer. We're not going to trade for a 5'8" DH type. Just isn't going to happen. He has no value

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Biggest knock was projection with reports saying he was more of a 4/5 type.  Results wise though, he's exceeded expectations thus far... by a significant margin.  He's been a K machine in the minors including a small stint in the PCL.  I don't mind him as a 3rd piece personally, but I'd be pretty hesitant to take a deal with just two with nothing else of value.

Thanks for getting me back up to speed.

[nater79a]

At this point, the only person who knows about the parameters of a Dozier deal is probably a Chavez Ravine gardener who stumbled upon some discarded hand-written notes scribbled down by Andrew Friedman.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to admit to being meh on Calhoun... not a defender, and not exactly a DH prototype...  I'd probably pass there.  I want more upside, even if there's more risk attached to it.

[nater79a]

 

No. admittably I'm not as high on de Leon as most but even then in that trade he is the only non for sure bust. Calhoun is worthless in any trade offer. We're not going to trade for a 5'8" DH type. Just isn't going to happen. He has no value

 

Agree on Calhoun. Just plug in Polanco at 2B and run with that for awhile. Twins always seem to have more than enough DH types.

[Cory Engelhardt]

^{http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/12/29/dodgers-can-withstand-dipping-into-sp-depth-in-brian-dozier-deal/}

 

Another article, from a Dodger perspective, on why De Leon and Stewart could seem tough to swallow on their end, but would be worth it to get Dozier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This do anything for anyone: Willie Calhoun, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield and Brock Stewart in exchange for Brian Dozier and (maybe) Kintzler.

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

I like it all right. Realistically I don't think you can do better for Dozier right now.

 

If you are down on De Leon, you could insist on Alvarez in his place, I suppose.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Calhoun is worthless in any trade offer. We're not going to trade for a 5'8" DH type. Just isn't going to happen. He has no value

Calhoun being "worthless" is ridiculous. He is #87 on MLB's list right now, and a solid B on Sickels scale, and those grades take into account his limitations like defense and speed. Even if you don't like him on the Twins, he would be an asset -- maybe you could package him in a later trade, we don't have many upper minors hitting prospects.

 

I wouldn't build the trade around him, but he should absolutely be considered as the 3rd or 4th piece if the Dodgers are willing.

 

Think of it a little like the draft, and "best player available."

[drjim]

 

Calhoun being "worthless" is ridiculous. He is #87 on MLB's list right now, and a solid B on Sickels scale, and those grades take into account his limitations like defense and speed. Even if you don't like him on the Twins, he would be an asset -- maybe you could package him in a later trade, we don't have many upper minors hitting prospects.

I wouldn't build the trade around him, but he should absolutely be considered as the 3rd or 4th piece if the Dodgers are willing.

Think of it a little like the draft, and "best player available."

 

Agree with this. Nothing wrong with acquiring assets of any type.

[Han Joelo]

I read this article about the Cardinals proclivity for subterfuge: https://www.google.com/amp/redbirdrants.com/2016/12/27/st-louis-cardinals-mozeliak-rumors/amp/?client=safari

 

Probably a dud link, but the point is these guys are tricky. Maybe they put it out to THEIR beat writer that they weren't interested just to mess with the Dodger's heads. They have absolutely nothing to gain by declaring their disinterest, unless it is a double reverse to try and scare the Dodgers into increasing their offer.

 

And, to reiterate, Liriano was a "third" piece. I say haggle away.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

If the Cardinals went with this false report, the negotiation power may have switched to the Twins. Now that they have completely denied it, it feels like all the power is in the Dodgers' hand. 

And whatever held up the negotiations before, if I were the Dodgers knowing they're the only ones in on Dozier, I'd say "You know that 3rd or 4th piece we've been talking about? Never mind about that. You can have De Leon / 2nd piece. Take it or leave it."  

If that's the case, and I'm the Twins, I'd leave it. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Taking whatever the Dodgers want to give us also means the first move of this new regime, much like Bill Smith, starts off on the wrong foot.  I'm pretty sure that's a factor here too.

 

But Dozier needs to go before this season starts.  Or we're going to seriously regret it.

I doubt it. We might be happier if he's with the team!!

[Obsvr]

The reaction around here if they don't end up trading him and he gets off to a slow start..

 

http://i.makeagif.com/media/7-07-2014/GMapOg.gif

 

 

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I agree, that's sort of the crux of the issue here.  I don't want our new FO to look bad, but at the same time retaining Dozier is a huge step backwards for this team's ability to field a winner going forward.

 

Ideally, we get a good deal and take that.

 

I disagree. NOT making a deal does not make the new FO look bad. Making a bad deal would...

[DodgerFan1234]

The difference is the Nats really were in on acquiring Sale, according to multiple baseball sites... The Cardinals rumor was a false report from the Twins with no substance behind it.

This.

Also, DaveW has been unambiguous in relaying what his source is telling him. I'm on record saying I'm skeptical, but if he's right, then I'll be the first to congratulate him on scooping all national media on Alvarez being included. No point on beating a dead

[gil4]

 

The catch is Stewart has a better fastball than Slowey, and Slowey with a better fastball might have been a thing

Slowey might have been at least a bit of a thing anyway if he hadn't gotten hurt.  (The epitaph of 95% of all pitchers.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I disagree. NOT making a deal does not make the new FO look bad. Making a bad deal would...

 

And what is good or bad, to you? Two top 75 prospects enough? If not, what is?

 

They aren't about more than 1-5% likely to be good with him next year......trading your best (older) players is how you get better, faster, over the long run, when you are a 100+ loss team...

[beckmt]

 

The only thing people don't like about Stewart is his scouting reports on fangraphs and mlbpipeline say he is a future #4 starter. His minor league numbers, especially his K/BB rate, certainly look very promising. He absolutely has an average to above average fastball and changeup, and has the makings of a 3rd pitch. Plus, he threw 150 innings combined last year between the minors and majors, all while striking out more than a batter per inning.

 

Outside of that, it's not like I know Stewart personally. But I'd be excited to give him a chance. How many guys in the Twins system had as good a year in the minors as Stewart did last year? Not many.

Gonsalves and he is rated #4/#5/fringe depending on website you look at.

[Squirrel]

This.

Also, DaveW has been unambiguous in relaying what his source is telling him. I'm on record saying I'm skeptical, but if he's right, then I'll be the first to congratulate him on scooping all national media on Alvarez being included. No point on beating a dead during the holidays. Happy New Year everybody!

I don't think Dave has been unambiguous. He's been saying pretty much the same thing from the beginning, the only 'off' thing so far has been the timing of it. If you want to be skeptical, that's fine. I'm skeptical about Dave's source, too, in that I wonder if Dave is being told accurate information, but not that Dave hasn't told us what he's been told.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Gonsalves and he is rated #4/#5/fringe depending on website you look at.

 

They are actually similar prospects, though Gonsalves was considered a potential first rounder that fell due to character concerns. He's performed though at every stop despite having that "back end of the rotation" projection.  That said, more recent reports have been a bit rosier. No reason to think Gonsalves cannot have a decent ML career.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

And what is good or bad, to you? Two top 75 prospects enough? If not, what is?

 

They aren't about more than 1-5% likely to be good with him next year......trading your best (older) players is how you get better, faster, over the long run, when you are a 100+ loss team...

 

Not ANY two top 75 prospects; I would want starting pitchers in return for him. That's what the Twins need now. And I wouldn't take any SP that haven't at least pitched in AA ball. Even no. 1 draft picks sometimes flame out in A ball. That's why I'm not keen on Alvarez.

 

It needs to be the right two top 75 prospects...

[Doomtints]

 

I disagree. NOT making a deal does not make the new FO look bad. Making a bad deal would...

 

Both would be bad. Of the two, making no move would be seen as worse in the short term. It would take years to know if the trade is good for the Twins, regardless of the players. By then, the FO would have been running things for a few years and we would know if they were competent or not based on a fuller picture of decisions made....

[AZTwin]

Not ANY two top 75 prospects; I would want starting pitchers in return for him. That's what the Twins need now. And I wouldn't take any SP that haven't at least pitched in AA ball. Even no. 1 draft picks sometimes flame out in A ball. That's why I'm not keen on Alvarez.

 

It needs to be the right two top 75 prospects...

Exactly. Restovich was a top 20 but everyone knew he couldn't hit anything besides a fastball. Hell, Matt Moses was top 70 and I'm not sure he ever did anything in the minors. Prospects bust all the time. You can't just blindly look at a list and be like okay that works. You have to examine the player itself. If you look at Calhoun and think that's a for sure top 70 in minor leagues I would think you have lost your mind.