Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[DaveW]

For what it's worth, reading his reply, it seems that Wolfson thinks De Leon + Stewart are the centerpieces of the Dodger's offer.

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/814506150695763968

I am confident that Doogie is just spitballing on this. It's DeLeon and Alvarez.

[drjim]

 

No doubt, Sale is more valuable than Dozier. And Eaton is more valuable too by virtue of age/contract.

But I think the White Sox position was a non-neglible factor in them getting good deals done quickly. (Which is why I have come around to doubting Dave's specific rumor about the inclusion of Alvarez -- the Twins would have been foolish to let a fairly aggressive offer fester since early December).

 

I don't really agree. All accounts (or at least interviews that I read) indicated that they came into the meetings ready to deal, laid their best chips on the table and said have at it. And once the first chip (Sale) is traded, that leverage is gone, yet they still got what they wanted for Eaton.

[Mike Sixel]

If it is De Leon and Stewart, I want Buehler as the third piece.....HOWEVER, if they can get a legit hitter as the third piece, and deal Santana for a legit SP in the 50-75 range, that combination of players probably works in my mind.

 

I just don't LOVE any of the hitters likely to be available from the Dodgers. Maybe they need a threesome.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For what it's worth, reading his reply, it seems that Wolfson thinks De Leon + Stewart are the centerpieces of the Dodger's offer.

That sounds about right for the offer. Earlier rumors had the Twins pretty high on Stewart too.

 

If they were really just haggling over a 3rd piece ranked below Stewart, though, I'm a little surprised they couldn't hammer something out right away.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't really agree. All accounts (or at least interviews that I read) indicated that they came into the meetings ready to deal, laid their best chips on the table and said have at it. And once the first chip (Sale) is traded, that leverage is gone, yet they still got what they wanted for Eaton.

 

I don't agree trading Sale is actually a tear down. They still have some good pitchers. 

 

I don't think contending talent or not is the leverage, though. I think having a player that multiple teams want is the leverage....

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I am confident that Doogie is just spitballing on this. It's DeLeon and Alvarez.

 

That said, and I'm not saying you are wrong, Stewart and De Leon both have 6 years of control left and would absolutely help the rotation in 2017. It'd be a good move to help the 2017 and the future.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't really agree. All accounts (or at least interviews that I read) indicated that they came into the meetings ready to deal, laid their best chips on the table and said have at it. And once the first chip (Sale) is traded, that leverage is gone, yet they still got what they wanted for Eaton.

I would be surprised if the framework of the Eaton deal wasn't already largely in place before the Sale deal was official.

 

We're probably quibbling over a minor factor, but I just think it was one that favored the White Sox over the Twins. Obviously the quality/value of the players was far more important.

[Mike Sixel]

I actually don't understand why the Yankees aren't in on Dozier as a DH who can play 2B for them, if they want....frankly. He's cheap, and would thrive in the AL East ballparks. They have the means....

[Otto von Ballpark]

I actually don't understand why the Yankees aren't in on Dozier as a DH who can play 2B for them, if they want....frankly. He's cheap, and would thrive in the AL East ballparks. They have the means....

Dozier is not cheap if you have to give up more than De Leon and Stewart to get him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

But those are contradictory points. Don't take what is offered but also you must trade him?

 

I agree, that's sort of the crux of the issue here.  I don't want our new FO to look bad, but at the same time retaining Dozier is a huge step backwards for this team's ability to field a winner going forward.

 

Ideally, we get a good deal and take that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dozier is not cheap if you have to give up more than De Leon and Stewart to get him.

 

Fair, but I was talking about salary. The Yankees have one of the best farm systems around, and were actually quite good last year, just missing the playoffs....I thought they'd be more aggressive this off season. However, it is clear they are under new leadership, and may be waiting for next year when there are good FA pitchers out there. Or maybe they are just going to go with prospects and development, but that seems unlikely.

[gunnarthor]

 

Fair, but I was talking about salary. The Yankees have one of the best farm systems around, and were actually quite good last year, just missing the playoffs....I thought they'd be more aggressive this off season. However, it is clear they are under new leadership, and may be waiting for next year when there are good FA pitchers out there. Or maybe they are just going to go with prospects and development, but that seems unlikely.

Well, they are signing Machado and Harper next offseason so I don't think they want to spend 20m to bench Castro. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, they are signing Machado and Harper next offseason so I don't think they want to spend 20m to bench Castro. 

 

I thought Machado and Harper were FAs in two years....

 

I wonder who will actually sign Harper. The Dodgers will have more money by then. Texas might. The Cubs will be rolling in cash and be "winners". 

[gunnarthor]

 

I thought Machado and Harper were FAs in two years....

 

I wonder who will actually sign Harper. The Dodgers will have more money by then. Texas might. The Cubs will be rolling in cash and be "winners". 

Oops, you're right.  Those guys are FA in two  years.  

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

 

But no one will outbid the Yankees.  Harper grew up a Yankees fan, his LH swing is made for that park.  If he has a big MVP type season in him in the next two years, he'll get 500 million.

[Willihammer]

In case Jack Goin is reading:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Trump-Art-Deal-Donald-J/dp/0399594493/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1483033736&sr=1-1&keywords=art+of+the+deal

[Mike Sixel]

 

In case Jack Goin is reading:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Trump-Art-Deal-Donald-J/dp/0399594493/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1483033736&sr=1-1&keywords=art+of+the+deal

 

This made me laugh, thanks!

[Squirrel]

This made me laugh, thanks!

It made me throw up a little, but I still get that it was meant to be funny.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can someone update us on the knocks against Brock Stewart, again? Thanks

 

Someone in another thread said they like Stewart more than DeLeon and I cannot disagree, given most of us only know what's on the internet with these guys. Alvarez is in A ball while DeLeon and Stewart are two young MLB ready pitchers with nice ceilings. That would be highway robbery. I wonder if Wolfson is not as plugged in as he thinks.

[crapforks]

Taking a very cynical approach to these rumors, you can have fun analyzing potential spin. Story 'broke' with rumors of DeLeon and Alvarez plus. The Dodgers interest was widely known and nobody came out to deny the DeLeon part. Then the Dodgers let slip that they're 'willing to include' DeLeon, thus lessening the expected return. Then the Twins let slip that they have many more suitors, thus attempting to get the Dodgers to increase their offer. Now, we see DeLeon and Stewart plus. 

Im not sure how much MLB front offices care about the court of public opinion in these cases. At this point it seems that the idea of a winner/loser of the trade is too murky to be definitive. DeLeon, Stewart and sweetener is an OK haul that won't upset most of us here too much but will probably delight most Dodger fans. DeLeon, Alvarez and sweetener will delight most of us here and probably won't send most Dodger fans into a spiral. I, personally, wouldn't walk away from JDL, Stewart and an org. top 20. But I also wouldn't be in a hurry to complete that trade. The Dodgers know that the Twins are motivated to deal, and so does the rest of the league. Including Alvarez gets the deal done immediately, IMO.

Damned shame that the Nats and Cards all but denied serious interest. Damned shame the Yankees aren't in. Damned shame the Braves and A's aren't ready for that splash. Its been fun to follow this trade here, on Dodger forums, on MLBTR and on Twitter. I will almost be sad if/when the trade is complete. 

[jud6312]

 

I wonder if Wolfson is not as plugged in as he thinks.

I think no more accurate words have ever been written about "I Would be Doogie."

[gunnarthor]

 

Can someone update us on the knocks against Brock Stewart, again? Thanks

Someone in another thread said they like Stewart more than DeLeon and I cannot disagree, given most of us only know what's on the internet with these guys. Alvarez is in A ball while DeLeon and Stewart are two young MLB ready pitchers with nice ceilings. That would be highway robbery. I wonder if Wolfson is not as plugged in as he thinks.

Stewart projects as a back of the rotation guy.  Sure, he had a nice rookie season but so did Duffey. 

 

From BA:  "Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup."  They listed his slider as average and his change up as fringe average.  Slider can play up at times.

From Fangraphs: Stewart projects as a solid No. 4 or 5 starter and could comfortably be a major-league average No. 4 if he finds a more consistent way to deal with right-handed hitters."  They like his change up more than BA did.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

For what it's worth, reading his reply, it seems that Wolfson thinks De Leon + Stewart are the centerpieces of the Dodger's offer.

 

 

I'd be OK with this if the 3rd piece was decent. I think my preference is De Leon, Alvarez, and Stewart....  I'd tell LA that I'd be happy to take Puig off their hands to sweeten it

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Can someone update us on the knocks against Brock Stewart, again? Thanks

Someone in another thread said they like Stewart more than DeLeon and I cannot disagree, given most of us only know what's on the internet with these guys. Alvarez is in A ball while DeLeon and Stewart are two young MLB ready pitchers with nice ceilings. That would be highway robbery. I wonder if Wolfson is not as plugged in as he thinks.

 

The only thing people don't like about Stewart is his scouting reports on fangraphs and mlbpipeline say he is a future #4 starter. His minor league numbers, especially his K/BB rate, certainly look very promising. He absolutely has an average to above average fastball and changeup, and has the makings of a 3rd pitch. Plus, he threw 150 innings combined last year between the minors and majors, all while striking out more than a batter per inning.

 

Outside of that, it's not like I know Stewart personally. But I'd be excited to give him a chance. How many guys in the Twins system had as good a year in the minors as Stewart did last year? Not many.

[Steve Lein]

 

Can someone update us on the knocks against Brock Stewart, again? Thanks

Someone in another thread said they like Stewart more than DeLeon and I cannot disagree, given most of us only know what's on the internet with these guys. Alvarez is in A ball while DeLeon and Stewart are two young MLB ready pitchers with nice ceilings. That would be highway robbery. I wonder if Wolfson is not as plugged in as he thinks.

 

Stewart is lacking in pedigree. I haven't seen a scouting report yet that pegs him as more than a #4/#5 back-end starter. There is some belief that he could be more given he hasn't pitched all that much yet (did not pitch until he was a pro), but there's a lot of things beyond what he does now that would have to develop more for that to happen.

 

From BA in June when he was called up (as an example of one such scouting report): "Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup."

 

Think Kevin Slowey as far as what they did in the minors and what they may do in the majors.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Can someone update us on the knocks against Brock Stewart, again? Thanks

Someone in another thread said they like Stewart more than DeLeon and I cannot disagree, given most of us only know what's on the internet with these guys. Alvarez is in A ball while DeLeon and Stewart are two young MLB ready pitchers with nice ceilings. That would be highway robbery. I wonder if Wolfson is not as plugged in as he thinks.

 

Biggest knock was projection with reports saying he was more of a 4/5 type.  Results wise though, he's exceeded expectations thus far... by a significant margin.  He's been a K machine in the minors including a small stint in the PCL.  I don't mind him as a 3rd piece personally, but I'd be pretty hesitant to take a deal with just two with nothing else of value.

[jud6312]

 

I'd be OK with this if the 3rd piece was decent. I think my preference is De Leon, Alvarez, and Stewart....  I'd tell LA that I'd be happy to take Puig off their hands to sweeten it

Based on readiness and ceiling, I'd also prefer the first two pieces be De Leon and Alvarez. If they balked on adding Stewart, I think it'd have to be two other under-the-radar guys taking his place as the rest of their top guys appear to be bullpen arms.

 

For me, Alvarez is the key cog.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Stewart projects as a back of the rotation guy.  Sure, he had a nice rookie season but so did Duffey. 

 

From BA:  "Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup."  They listed his slider as average and his change up as fringe average.  Slider can play up at times.

From Fangraphs: Stewart projects as a solid No. 4 or 5 starter and could comfortably be a major-league average No. 4 if he finds a more consistent way to deal with right-handed hitters."  They like his change up more than BA did.

Ah, thanks.

 

However, he does miss bats. Here is a write up by a Dodger guy equating him with JDL which I think is interesting. http://dodgersdigest.com/2016/06/20/dodgers-time-to-talk-about-brock-stewart/

[jud6312]

This do anything for anyone: Willie Calhoun, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield and Brock Stewart in exchange for Brian Dozier and (maybe) Kintzler.

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The only thing people don't like about Stewart is his scouting reports on fangraphs and mlbpipeline say he is a future #4 starter. His minor league numbers, especially his K/BB rate, certainly look very promising. He absolutely has an average to above average fastball and changeup, and has the makings of a 3rd pitch. Plus, he threw 150 innings combined last year between the minors and majors, all while striking out more than a batter per inning.

 

Outside of that, it's not like I know Stewart personally. But I'd be excited to give him a chance. How many guys in the Twins system had as good a year in the minors as Stewart did last year? Not many.

I admit to being guilty of scouting stat lines, so his IP/K/BB numbers jumped out at me too. However, I think Stewart has an interesting enough background to go with the stats.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This do anything for anyone: Willie Calhoun, Jose De Leon, Jordan Sheffield and Brock Stewart in exchange for Brian Dozier and (maybe) Kintzler.

 

http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

 

That is right on the border for me.....but if the Twins think De Leon is about Ervin Santana, I do it. Sheffiled moves to the bullpen, and is up fast. Could maybe be a closer type, imo.

 

I'd hope Calhoun hits the bleep out of the ball, and you flip him for someone that is faster than a Molina brother....