Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[HitInAPinch]

 

Question to you all:

Putting aside for a moment who exactly is on or off the table for sure, (which the Dodgers could change at any moment based on a desire to finish the deal, OR, the Twins taking salary back, etc), which is truly the best overall fit for the Twins as the 3rd piece in this puzzle? Is it someone like Stewart who may be close? Or are we better off with someone else like a Sheffield or one of the other younger and further away youngsters with more potential but more questions?

JDL joins Berrios, May, Mejia, Gonsalves, and a number of SP candidates that will all probably begin next season at AA. I'm not so sure a younger, less proven lottery type isn't more fitting for the Twins at this point.

DaveW has posted on Twitter that De Leon and Alvarez are the 2 main pieces, with possibility of 1-2 more players/prospects.

 

I think we need to look at this as a, at a minimum, 2 year rebuild.  There are a few young pitchers currently in the Twins organization that can fill that roll, develop, and may give Twins [if De Leon and Alvarez as expected/hope] a trade surplus they've never had:  Pitchers that other teams desire.

 

IMHO, I would say the best course is to keep building the legion vast and grab a couple lower-level pitching prospects from LA and keep back-feeding the system.

 

Or I could be fill with crap.....

 

[beckmt]

 

Never never never never never trade a Major league hitter for a pitcher.  You will almost always lose the trade.  If we don't get a Major League SS or catcher, we won't get value for Dozier and you will gripe about the trade for the next 20 years.  

Because you win with pitching and defense.  You only need decent hitting(which the Twins could well already have).

De Leon will slot in above most of the current Twins prospects, but he looks to slot in as a #3 starter with the upside of a #2, if all breaks right.  Twins need some lower level pitching prospects with #1 to #2 promise to make this work, plus a couple of lottery tickets.  Holdup from what I'm reading in the thread in the upside of those lottery tickets, with the Dodgers more inclined to give AAAA upside type and the Twins wanting 1 more decent(but lower prospect)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Question to you all:

Putting aside for a moment who exactly is on or off the table for sure, (which the Dodgers could change at any moment based on a desire to finish the deal, OR, the Twins taking salary back, etc), which is truly the best overall fit for the Twins as the 3rd piece in this puzzle? Is it someone like Stewart who may be close? Or are we better off with someone else like a Sheffield or one of the other younger and further away youngsters with more potential but more questions?

JDL joins Berrios, May, Mejia, Gonsalves, and a number of SP candidates that will all probably begin next season at AA. I'm not so sure a younger, less proven lottery type isn't more fitting for the Twins at this point.

 

Given the need for major league pitching, I would probably target a guy like Stewart. Problem of course is on LADs side, as guys like that equate to depth as well.  Honestly, I'd have no problems with Stewart or a younger high-upside kind of guy. From a needs standpoint though, I'd go with another pitcher close to the show.  I'd put De Leon and Stewart in the rotation on day one and send Hughes to the pen unless he showed something in the spring I wasn't expecting, Santiago packing, and possibly trade ESan too.  My rotation from day 1 would be De Leon, Stewart, May, Gibson, and Berrios with Mejia in AAA.  Dufey might be in AAA too and remain a starter. If Hughes earned a job, one of the three of De Leon, Stewart, and Berrios opens in Rochester.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Could Trayce Thompson be the 3rd piece? I do think he would help the Mlb roster next year

[Mr. Brooks]

Never never never never never trade a Major league hitter for a pitcher. You will almost always lose the trade. If we don't get a Major League SS or catcher, we won't get value for Dozier and you will gripe about the trade for the next 20 years.

I won't gripe about the trade even if every player we get busts.

The Twins aren't winning the WS in the next 2 years with or without Dozier.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I won't gripe about the trade even if every player we get busts.
The Twins aren't winning the WS in the next 2 years with or without Dozier.

 

2nd'd. You take the best assets you believe in when trading an asset. No one can predict the future and what will happen, but you take the 2-3 best players in a trade for Dozier, regardless of position, and get the most worth in your mind.

If they happen to be pitchers, all of them, so be it. You want to get the most value possible at the time of the deal.

[Platoon]

If I could end up one solid #3 SP, or above I would be satisfied. The reason? One is obvious, we need SP desperately. The other is a little less discussed. This team has to potential offensively to easily replace Doziers output. And if the potential does not come to fruition, trading Dozier will be the least of our problems. Every trade is affected by leverage. While ours is the Dodgers need for a 2B, theirs is our glaring need for competence in the rotation. We aren't exactly sitting on quite the gold mine many think.

[beckmt]

My read is that the Twins brass is not sold on Aleverz being an almost sure thing.  So they want another lower prospect lottery ticket to balance out the risk.  Or who they want is hitting a nerve with the Dodgers.

[mazeville]

Good stuff here from Ken Rosenthal on the Dozier trade.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/los-angeles-dodgers-prospects-trade-jose-de-leon-notes-122016

 

Upshot: Dozier trade is not close. But Rosenthal also gives a real good argument as to why the Twins should trade Dozier now, and not wait until the trade deadline. They won't get a better deal than they will now. And there is always a risk that Dozier will have a bad first half.

 

Here's a kicker quote:

 

 

The Twins, then, perhaps can play a little hardball, knowing they probably line up with the Dodgers best. But the danger of pushing too far is that the Dodgers could turn to another option, and the Twins might not find a better deal before Aug. 1, when Dozier already will have played more than half a season.

 

[Homer Hanky]

 

Let's discuss the impending trade of Brian Dozier here:

I think we will need a future 3B when Sano replaces Mauer in a few years! Any options there?

[jimmer]

I think we will need a future 3B when Sano replaces Mauer in a few years! Any options there?

Assuming he can even play 1B now or in a couple years.

 

But I am with you, I dont know of any interesting options for 3B in our farm system

[mazeville]

 

I think we will need a future 3B when Sano replaces Mauer in a few years! Any options there?

 

Don't quite understand why people are so fast to write off Sano at third. He's had a good chunk of his development stunted by injury and by the Twins DHing him the year before last season. And then last year he didn't even play there full time because of Trevor Plouffe.

 

Give him another year or two. See how he looks this season. He has a canon for an arm and can get to the ball there. He makes plenty of boneheaded plays, yes, but there's something there if you watch him come in on a ball and flip it to first.

 

As for a third base prospect, you can find third base prospects with your shortstop prospects. So guys like Polanco or Gordon could conceivably play third if need be. 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

When will this be done? Anyone have an educated guess?

[DocBauer]

I think we will need a future 3B when Sano replaces Mauer in a few years! Any options there?

Nelson Molina, Travis Blakenhorn, Trey Cabbage, possibly TJ White and Niko Goodrum, (the latter may be best as a versatile utility guy), and maybe even Gordon if another SS comes to light. There are also a couple SS in the low minors who might convert. The problem here is almost everyone is at A ball or lower.

 

But this also gives Sano time to actually play 3B on a daily basis for a year or two. The numbers, despite some bad plays here and there, indicate he's about average defensively. And this is despite being young, not allowed to play daily, only about 750 ML AB of experience, and the entire RF experiment last season.

 

He's a good athlete for a larger man with a gun for an arm. He charges the ball well. I have seen very few 3B in all my years who come up and are real assets with the glove immediately, and this includes the Twins history as well. Can't we just let the kid play some before we decide he can't play?

 

Back to Dozier....

[Cory Engelhardt]

So let's go with this thread (not the national people, as no one other than this thread is saying that Alvarez is available.)

 

If the deal is De Leon and Alvarez, plus one more piece, what else could there be? This was my DREAM/totally unrealistic trade for Dozier a month ago.

[DodgerFan1234]

I think we will need a future 3B when Sano replaces Mauer in a few years! Any options there?

The long-term plan for the Dodgers (assuming no major trades to affect this) would be to have Turner man 3B until his contract ends. That would coincide with Lux (or somebody) generally being ready and Seager moving over from SS.

 

That kind of thinking could theoretically open up Edwin Rios as a 4th-ish piece. 2015 draftee. Played his age 22 season finishing at AA and broke out with 27HR's. The BIG question with Rios is whether his obp will hold up as he sees more advanced pitching. It's was .345 overall across 3 levels but just .304 @ AA.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Assuming he can even play 1B now or in a couple years.

But I am with you, I dont know of any interesting options for 3B in our farm system

Jermaine Palacios comes to mind, but he's pretty far away and didn't quite follow up his impressive rookie campaign.  Arraez could also potentially move there if he's blocked by Polanco and Gordon. 

 

That said, 3B isn't hard to find decent talent in FA.  I wouldn't sweat that one too much, except that I'd keep Sano there as long as possible. He should be able to play through his arb years there... perhaps not so much when he's ready to be a FA, but he's young and athletic enough that this won't be a problem for now.

[gunnarthor]

In a couple years our IF could be Polanco/Vielma/Gordon/Sano.  I tend to agree that our future third baseman is probably playing short right now but we could also nab one at pick 35/37.  There are a few third baseman slotted around that by mlbpipeline - LSU's Jake Burger and a HS kid named Vientos (who probably goes before 35).  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Question to you all:

 

Putting aside for a moment who exactly is on or off the table for sure, (which the Dodgers could change at any moment based on a desire to finish the deal, OR, the Twins taking salary back, etc), which is truly the best overall fit for the Twins as the 3rd piece in this puzzle? Is it someone like Stewart who may be close? Or are we better off with someone else like a Sheffield or one of the other younger and further away youngsters with more potential but more questions?

 

JDL joins Berrios, May, Mejia, Gonsalves, and a number of SP candidates that will all probably begin next season at AA. I'm not so sure a younger, less proven lottery type isn't more fitting for the Twins at this point.

the Twins farm needs some AAA depth, and the MLB starting rotation needs a couple pieces swapped for youth. I think you need a mix.

One more AA/AAA gonna be ready in 2018 but could be up in a pinch in 2017 pitcher or 3b/SS would be good

[markos]

 

So let's go with this thread (not the national people, as no one other than this thread is saying that Alvarez is available.)

 

If the deal is De Leon and Alvarez, plus one more piece, what else could there be? This was my DREAM/totally unrealistic trade for Dozier a month ago.

Frankly, I don't care who the 3rd piece is if those two are included.

[gunnarthor]

Wetmore had some non-Dodger's thoughts although he thinks the Dodgers make the most sense.

 

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2016/12/wetmores-5-thoughts-speculative-destinations-brian-dozier/

 

I am surprised by the lack of Yankee rumors.  Seems like Dozier's power would play well in the AL East and they have the prospects to make it happen.

[nicksaviking]

Considering a perfectly passable 3B wasn't even offered arbitration this year and the Pirates signed a guy who could be his clone last year to a cheap deal, I'm of the mind that we probably don't need to get too concerned about who's going to play the position two, three years from now. Unlike the pitching, that's probably something we need to spend next to no time worrying about at this time.

[d-mac]

 

Given the need for major league pitching, I would probably target a guy like Stewart. Problem of course is on LADs side, as guys like that equate to depth as well.  Honestly, I'd have no problems with Stewart or a younger high-upside kind of guy. From a needs standpoint though, I'd go with another pitcher close to the show.  I'd put De Leon and Stewart in the rotation on day one and send Hughes to the pen unless he showed something in the spring I wasn't expecting, Santiago packing, and possibly trade ESan too.  My rotation from day 1 would be De Leon, Stewart, May, Gibson, and Berrios with Mejia in AAA.  Dufey might be in AAA too and remain a starter. If Hughes earned a job, one of the three of De Leon, Stewart, and Berrios opens in Rochester.

 

This is also what I'd prefer as well. 

[Physics Guy]

 

Never never never never never trade a Major league hitter for a pitcher.  You will almost always lose the trade.  If we don't get a Major League SS or catcher, we won't get value for Dozier and you will gripe about the trade for the next 20 years.  

Unless of course you are the Rays trading Young and Harris for Garza and Bartlett.  They were smart to trade him at max value, just like the Twins will be if they trade Dozier.

[laloesch]

 

Let's discuss the impending trade of Brian Dozier here:

 

I think that if both sides agreed to De-Leon and Alavarez that a framework for a deal would have been in place by now and leaked to the press.  The other question(s) in my mind are the third and possible fourth pieces of a deal. 

 

Assuming the Dodgers are willing to include De-Leon and Alvarez, I have a hard time understanding the hang-up unless they are absolutely not willing to include any other significant starting pitching prospects such as Jordan Sheffield or Walker Buehler both of whom are college level starters that the Twins should be targeting IMO.  Both have multiple pitches and project as starters.  I'm not as excited about Brock Stewart.  After reading his scouting report he strikes me as a RP featuring a strong fastball and average changeup.    

 

Question.  What do you think about Connor Byrne's mlbtraderumors article about a potential Brian Dozier trade not being imminent?  Do you think the Twins official is just blowing smoke at news reporters?    

[Physics Guy]

I know he's no longer a young player (turned 30 in July) but what about Scott Van Slyke as a 4th player.  He doesn't play a ton for the Dodgers and has good splits against LHP as a ptotential RH combo with Rosario or Kepler. 

[jorgenswest]

Trading an established hitter for good pitching prospect is one way to build a pitching staff. It might take three of those trades to win one, but the rewards in finding that one team control starting pitcher outweighs the losses in the other two. Starting pitching is difficult to acquire. If you can't develop it in the minors, it will cone at a high cost in free agency or trade.

[Vanimal46]

When will this be done? Anyone have an educated guess?

If it hasn't been completed by now, I have my doubts. Dozier is a luxury addition for the Dodgers. IMO they don't need him as much as the Twins need prospects.

 

It's a long poker game, and Falvey doesn't appear to want to fold his hand. Even though the Dodgers have the advantage.

[laloesch]

 

If it hasn't been completed by now, I have my doubts. Dozier is a luxury addition for the Dodgers. IMO they don't need him as much as the Twins need prospects.

It's a long poker game, and Falvey doesn't appear to want to fold his hand. Even though the Dodgers have the advantage.

 

I'm guessing if it doesn't happen by EOB day tomorrow that it won't happen until the new year if ever. It has been indicated that the two teams have agreed to Alvarez and De-Leon, but the Dodgers want the third piece of the deal to be a PTBNL.  That's a tough pill for the Twins to swallow.  No-one should have expectations of any other top 30 prospects as the third piece coming back to the Twins.  That might be a deal breaker in my opinion.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I'm guessing if it doesn't happen by EOB day tomorrow that it won't happen until the new year if ever. It has been indicated that the two teams have agreed to Alvarez and De-Leon, but the Dodgers want the third piece of the deal to be a PTBNL.  That's a tough pill for the Twins to swallow.  No-one should have expectations of any other top 30 prospects as the third piece coming back to the Twins.  That might be a deal breaker in my opinion.

 

Thing is, man, if they are getting those two (Alvarez and De Leon) they shouldn't need a 3rd piece at all. That's what I am not understanding.